Direktvermarktung von Strom auf dem Großhandelsmarkt: Rahmenbedingungen und Ausblick Ein deutschfranzösischer

Transcription

1 Direktvermarktung von Strom auf dem Großhandelsmarkt: Rahmenbedingungen und Ausblick Ein deutschfranzösischer Vergleich Konferenz Entwicklung der Fördermechanismen und Marktintegration der erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland und Frankreich Prof. Dr. Christian Nabe

2 Agenda > Goals of direct marketing of renewable generation > Relevant framework conditions for direct marketing > Comparison Germany France > Conclusions

3 Direct marketing of Renewables is supported by a variety of arguments. > Renewables have to establish their own market position > Centralised marketing of Renewables is no long-term solution > A high number of decentralised market actors will guarantee a better market results than central marketing of Renewables > Direct marketing of Renewables helps to avoid negative prices and thus save costs > In the long run direct marketing will be more cost efficient > Renewables should be able to make use of the value of Green Certificates they generate

4 The arguments for direct marketing can be structured. Goals of direct marketing of Renewables Higher market value lower system cost Preserve Guarantees of Origin (Green certificates) Lower balancing cost Avoid negative prices

5 The following framework conditions are relevant to increase the market value of Renewables. Access to information Traders need access to maintenance and forced outage data Forecast providers need access to online generation data Access to liquid markets Day ahead, intraday, reserve power markets need to be accessible Control of generation by traders Possibility to ramp down generation in case of low prices, interface to DSO Balancing payments for schedule deviations Low balancing prices give insufficient incentives for prediction accuracy High balancing prices cause inefficient self- balancing within own balancing area Transaction costs Efficient standard business processes help to minimise transaction costs, especially for smaller installations Market structure Monitoring of market concentration required

6 To increase market value and system efficiency, updated information needs to be used in short-term markets and to control generation. Development of wind prediction error by forecast horizon RMSE 8% 7% Intraday Day ahead 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Value is generated by using information efficiently Bids based on short term predictions term influence the system dispatch Price signals control Renewable generation (if negative) 1% Forecast horizon [h]

7 Renewable Energies in direct marketing are increasingly offering on control reserve markets. Participation of Renewables in the German control reserve market Source: BEE (2014)

8 Wholesale power prices both Germany and France show negative prices. /MWh 200 German and French wholesale prices Germany: 64 negative prices, France: 15 negative Prices Number of negative prices is likely to rise! -200 DE FR

9 In Germany about half of the energy are sold via direct marketing. Estimates of energy share in central marketing and direct marketing Central marketing Direct (decentral) Marketing Source: German TSO, own calculations, values May 2013

10 Anteil Share in % High costs of marketing power from small units leads to a focus on large units. All PV plants (Dec. 2012) PV in direct marketing (May 2013) 100% 0,03 Mio. 0,10 Mio. 80% 60% 14 GW ,6 GW 40% 6 GW 20% 0% 1,10 Mio. 12 GW Number Anzahl Capacity Leistung Number Anzahl Leistung Capacity Anlagen > 100 kw größer 100 kw Anlagen 30 to 100 von kw 30 bis 100 kw Anlagen < 30 kw kleiner gleich 30 kw For small units, transaction costs are still prohibitive, hence the focus on installations > 100 kw Source: Energymap, German TSO

11 In France, almost all PV installations have a maximum size of 100 kw. % Size distribution of PV installations in France Share of installations Share of capacity Source: CGDD/SOeS (d après obligations d achats, EDF, EDF-SET et ELD)/Chiffres clés des énergies renouvables édition 2014

12 A number of companies have specialised in direct marketing and compete against established trading companies. Statkraft Markets Trianel/Gesy Energy2market WE2 Clean Energy Sourcing MVV Energie GEWI Danske Commodities A/S DREWAG Axpo Nordjysk Elhandel A/S in.power Grundgrün Energie KoM-SOLUTION Naturstrom AG IBERDROLA GENERACION S.A.U. Bischoff & Ditze Energy Next Kraftwerke Mark-E RWE Direct marketing portfolio of companies in Germany in MW Wind onshore PV Biomasse fest Wasserkraft Portfolio nicht bekannt Quelle: Energie & Management 5/2013

13 Conclusions (1/2) > A number of framework conditions are relevant for the impact of direct marketing. They need to be examined whether they contribute to the market value of renewables and the reduction of system cost. > Experiences with direct marketing in Germany since 2012 allow to draw some preliminary conclusions > Challenges associated with direct marketing are different for each technology Biomass plants present almost no challange More challenges are associated with run-of-river plants Wind farms present prediction and controll challenges Most challenging are PV plants, especially small units

14 Conclusions (2/2) Access to information Renewable prediction is a well established and an international product Specialised companies provide prediction and aggregation services Access to liquid markets See next presentation Control of generation by traders Technical control units and interfaces are a standard product Possible control conflicts of traders and network operators needs to be regulated Balancing payments for schedule deviations In Germany there is the tendency to increase penalties, but inefficiencies are already visible Transaction costs For small PV business processes need to be defined. Interactions with regulations of self-supply need to be considered. Market structure High economic incentives lead to low entry barriers. Monitoring of market concentration required.