Renewables Energy Sources - A Business View

Transcription

1 Renewables Energy Sources - A Busess View Dr Anastasios Garis Chief Executive Officer South East Europe 2 nd Energy Conference Thessaloniki, 21 May 2008 PPC RENEWABLES S.A. 1

2 Global Market Overview Greek RES Market PPC Renewables 2

3 International organizations predict drastic growth of RES order to combat climate change Global Energy Production 1 [EJ 2 ] 1 1 Source: WGBU 2 Source: WGBU 2 1 EJ = GWh 1 EJ = GWh KEY KEY GROWTH GROWTH DRIVERS DRIVERS Global Global decisions decisions to to promote promote a cleaner cleaner environment environment Environmental Environmental conscience conscience and and acknowledgment acknowledgment of of need need to to tackle tackle climate climate change change Oil Oil dependence dependence policies policies Reduction Reduction itial itial vestment vestment cost cost More More productive productive technology technology 3

4 Demand for solar is acceleratg although forecasts differ 4

5 This has resulted a dramatic market capitalization of the solar sector 5

6 The RES sector is evolvg with utilities enterg the sector aggressively 6

7 leveragg also M&A itiatives 7

8 M&A Map for Wd 8

9 IPO Analysis Recent Transactions 9

10 Fancial performance differs across RES sectors 10

11 Solar sector stock performance is strong, despite the recent correction 11

12 Currently, offshore plays a mor role wd energy production However revamped terests dicates that substantial growth will take place 12

13 Key Uncertaties Contuous growth for the solar dustry or boom-bust cycles? Tightness or abundance of supply from wd turbe manufacturers? The government dilemma: What centives, how much and when? How can Network absorption impede or facilitate RES expansion? 13

14 Global Market Overview Greek RES Market PPC Renewables 14

15 Greece has significant natural wealth for Renewable Energy Sources Some of the highest solar irradiation rates Europe Wd potential for some MW Geothermal fields with production potential of ~350 MW (equivalent to MW of wd power) Many sprgs and rivers for hydroelectric power 15

16 The EU has set environmental improvement targets based on RES use which as a rule are not beg met yet 2001: 2001: All All EU EU member member states states adopt adopt national national targets targets for for the the proportion proportion of of electricity electricity consumption consumption that that should should come come from from RES RES (Directive (Directive 2001/77/ΕU) 2001/77/ΕU) Electricity produced from RES Europe, by country [% consumption] ,1 [%] Στόχος Ε.Ε Αυστρία Σουηδία 60,0 49,3 31,5 29,0 33,6 31,0 29,4 39,0 25,0 21,0 Λάτβια Φινλανδία Δανία Σλοβενία Σλοβακία Ισπανία Πορτογαλία Ιταλία Γαλλία 12,5 20,1 13,2 9,0 8,0 10,0 7,0 5,7 7,5 3,6 6,0 5,1 5,0 6,0 Γερμανία Ελλάδα Ιρλανδία Ολλανδία Τσεχία Μ. Βρετανία Status 2005 Gap to 2010 target 2007: 2007: EU EU member member states states decide decide to to crease crease total total energy energy produced produced from from RES RES to to 20% 20% by by Λιθουανία Λουξεμβούργο Πολωνία Ουγγαρία Βέλγιο Εστονία Μάλτα Κύπρος Ε.Ε. 21,0 Πηγή: State of renewable energies Europe, EurObserv ER

17 National Targets for Energy Generation from RES have been extended from the latest bdg resolution For 2020, the European Commission proposed the bdg targets known as « » 20% of the European energy production portfolio to be RES 20% reduction Greenhouse Gas emissions, compared to % energy savgs 10% of fuel used transport to be biofuel Greece s target for total energy consumed to come from RES has been set at 18%; hence RES have to account for 30-35% of electricity generation (this means some 10,000 MW of RES production by 2020) 17

18 Implementation of RES projects must be accelerated order to achieve the 20,1 % target followg the 77/2001/EC directive Production [ΤWh] Amount & Proportion of RES Electricity Production Greece RES % RES Target (20,1%) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % RES 0 Sources: DOE/EIA, ΥΠ.ΑΝ % Wd will will be be the the ma driver for for Greece to to meet her her RES RES targets 18

19 We hope that the 20,1% target will be achieved by 2012 Installed Capacity [MW] OTHER RES GEOTHERMY PHOTOVOLTAIC SMALL HYDRO WIND GREEK RES MARKET [MW] The 20,1% target will not be achieved by Drivers Fancially attractive environment for vestments Annulment of production permits that show no progress after 2 years Passage of a Land Use Plan for RES TOTAL DEMAND [TWh] 60,8 62,8 64,8 67,0 68,7 70,5 72,3 74,2 RES PRODUCTION* [TWh] 7,2 8,6 10,2 11,6 13,1 14,5 15,7 16,6 % RES PRODUCTION 12% 14% 16% 17% 19% 21% 22% 22% * Includes 4,5 TWh from large HPP * Includes 4,5 TWh from large HPP Sources: Dept. of Energy/EIA, MDev, RΑΕ, PPCR estimates 19

20 Attractive Feed- Tariffs Μορφή Παραγωγής Ηλεκτρικής Ενέργειας Maland Grid & Connected Islands Feed- Tariff* ( /MWh) Non-Connected Islands Onshore Wd 75,82 87,42 Offshore Wd Small Hydro <15 MWe 75,82 87,42 Photovoltaic <100 kwp 452,82 502,82 Photovoltaic >100 kwp 402,82 452,820 Other Solar Technologies <5MW 252,82 272,42 Other Solar Technologies >5MW 232,82 252,42 Geothermy 75,82 87,42 Other RES 75,82 87,42 * Accordg to RES Law 3468/06, creased by 2,82 July 2007 These prices may may be be altered by by the the Mistry of of Development followg a proposal from RAE 20

21 The terest for RES projects Greece is significant Technology With Operation Licenses (1) [MW] With Installation Permits [MW] With Production Permits (2) [MW] Applications for Production Permits (3) [MW] Wd 773,8 916, , ,5 Biomass 32,1 23,5 94,8 451,6 Geothermic 0,0 0,0 8,0 335,5 Small Hydroelectric 101,9 103,9 514, ,5 Solar P/V 0,8 2,2 80, ,9 Total Capacity [MW] 908, , , ,0 1) The above mentioned Operation Licenses clude RES projects from the Combed Production Permits of PPC 2) These clude the projects with Operation Licenses, Installation Permits and do not clude Revoked Licenses 3) These clude the projects with Production Permits as well as Revoked Licenses Source: RAE 21

22 The Greek RES market is fragmented but there is a concentration amongst the largest five players Percentage of Project Operation and with Production Permits Top 5 Next 50 Wd 40% 40% ESTIMATES ESTIMATES SHP 38% 62% PV 100% 0% Other 100% 0% Total 46% 39% Top 5 each Sector, by Operatg Assets WIND [MW] SMALL HYDRO [MW] ROKAS 193 PPC RENEWABLES 47 EDF EN 170 ΥΗΣ KERKINIS S.A. 7 TERNA 78 TECHNIKI ENERGEIAKI 7 ENELCO 70 HYDRILEKTRIKI 6 PPC RENEWABLES 44 DIEKAT 4 22

23 Some key steps to accelerate RES expansion Greece Review of Installation and Production Permits (and Grid connection terms) for wd parks that haven t yet begun construction Different regulatory regime for PV stallations <150 kwp Broader scope for subsidizg RES projects, without allowg excess profits Further improvement of the Permit Issuance process and the Land Use Plan 23

24 Global Market Overview Greek RES Market PPC Renewables 24

25 PPC has a long history of activity Renewable Energy Sources MAJOR MILESTONES 1954: Construction of its first Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP Louros) 1973: Begng of exploratory drillg for Geothermy 1980: Foundg of the Directorate for Alternative Energy Sources (DEME) 1982: Construction of the first Photovoltaic (PV) plant (Kythnos, 100 kw) 1983: Construction of the first Wd Farm Europe (Kythnos, 100 kw) 1998: Foundg of PPC Renewables S.A 2001: First JV s with ROKAS, TERNA, ELLINIKI TECHNODOMIKI, DIEKAT 2007: JV with EDF Energies Nouvelles for the development of wd farms (122 MW) 2007: Award of Production Permit for a 50 MW PV plant Megalopolis, Peloponnesus 2007: Alliance with S&B Merals for the exploitation of the geothermic field of the island of Milos 25

26 PPC Renewables has 91 MW of RES plants operation and a strong pipele of projects under development Phase MW In Operation 91 Close to / Under Construction 133 Production Permits* 60 Exploration & Exploitation Permits* 63 Outstandg Applications * 97 Prelimary Studies* 93 Total 537 * Risk-adjusted Wd Farm (W/F) Small Hydroelectric Plant (SHP) Photovoltaic Plant (PV) 26

27 PPC Renewables is a pioneer the Greek RES sector with long-term experience and the most diverse portfolio of assets [ΜW] Wd * Risk-adjusted CURRENT PORTFOLIO [MW] Prelimary Studies Outstandg Applications* Exploration & Exploitation Permits* Production Permits* Under/Close to Construction In Operation Small Hydro Photovoltaic Geothermy A significant significant position position the the Greek Greek RES RES sector sector The The only only company company with with activity activity Geothermy Geothermy Holder Holder of of the the only only Production Production Permit Permit Greece Greece (Lesvos, (Lesvos, 8 8 MW) MW) >150 >150 MW MW Exploration Exploration & & Exploitation Exploitation Permits Permits Leader Leader the the SHP SHP sector sector both both market market share share and and know-how know-how Holder Holder of of a a production production permit permit for for the the first first major major PV PV project project as as well well as as a a strong strong pipele pipele MW MW at at Megalopolis Megalopolis MW MW outstandg outstandg applications applications Pioneer Pioneer the the wd wd energy energy sector sector and and 5 5 th th largest largest market market share share

28 Our strategic target is to ga 20% of the Greek RES market by ,95bn. vestments Projected Installed Capacity, PPC Renewables S.A. [MW] Gap Existg Pipele 800 [MW] TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY GREEK RES MARKET PPCR MARKET S HARE 10% 10% 10% 13% 15% 18% 20% 20% 20% * Risk-adjusted 28

29 We have a number of significant projects our pipele 50 MW Φ/Β πάρκο στη Μεγαλόπολη JV with EDF EN 122 MW Geothermy Lesvos, Nisyros, Milos (JV με S&B) 29

30 Thank you for your attention! Tasos Garis ppcr.gr 30