Western Australia GSP

Transcription

1 March 05 s gross state product (GSP) was $65 billion in 03-4, contributing 7% of Australia s gross domestic product (GDP). GSP per capita was $03,770, 53% higher an e national average of $67,93. The State s share of e national population was. (.59 million) in e September quarter 04, and is projected by e Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to rise to.% (3.3 million) by 0-3. Economic grow 8% s real GSP rose 5.5% in % 6.% 6% 5.5% 4.9% % 4.3% 4.% 4.6% 3.8% 4.% 4%.3%.3% % GSP Australia GDP 4, following 4.6% grow in 0-3, and was above annual average grow of 4.9% over e past 0 years. GSP is forecast to rise.5% in bo 04-5 and 05-6 and 5. in Australia s GDP rose.5% to $,584 billion in 03-4 and is forecast to rise by.5% in 04-5 and 3% in Weighted annual average GDP grow of s major export markets was 5.5% in 03, and is expected to decline to 5.3% in 04 and 5.% in 05. Note Forecasts start in Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts and National Accounts; 04-5 Mid-Year Financial Projections Statement; and Australia 04-5 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. Major expenditure on GSP (% change) s merchandise exports rose Business investment % in volume terms in This was e largest contributor to GSP grow ahead of household consumption (up %) and dwelling investment (up %). Business investment fell % in volume terms in Merchandise exports are expected to rise by an annual average of 6% between 04-5 and 07-8, offsetting falling business investment over e period. Merchandise exports Household consumption Note Forecasts start in Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts, National Accounts and Balance of Payments; and 04-5 State Budget. Industry sectors real value added (% change) Mining made e largest industry contribution to Mining Constru ction GSP grow in 03-4, wi real value added rising %. Oer industry sectors contributing to GSP grow included agriculture, forestry and fishing (up 59%), non-market service industries (up 5%), construction (up 4%), market services industries (up %) and utilities (up %). The manufacturing industry detracted from GSP grow in 03-4 (down 3%). Services industries Public administration and safety; heal care and social assistance; and education and training. Electricity, gas, water and waste services. Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts. March 05 Page of 0

2 March 05 Industry sectors nominal value added The mining industry accounted for 3 of GSP in Mining $79b Market services industries $74b Construction $33b Non-market services industries(a) $7b 0-3 Manufacturing $3b Agriculture, forestry & fishing $7b Utilities(b) $6b 03-4 $50b Market services industries comprised 8% and construction % of GSP. Mining industry nominal value added rose 8% to $79 billion in Nominal value added in market services industries rose by 5% to $74 billion and construction by % to $33 billion in Nominal value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing rose by 64% to $7 billion in $00b (a) Public administration and safety; heal care and social assistance; and education and training. (b) Electricity, gas, water and waste services. Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts. Population grow 00,000 4% 75,000 3% s population rose.6% in 50,000 % 5,000 % Net overseas migration Net interstate migration Natural increase Population grow rate (%) 03-4, following 3.6% grow in 0-3, and was in line wi annual average grow of.6% in e past 0 years. The population was,573,389 in June 04, 54,38 more an a year earlier. Net overseas migration contributed 59% (3,70) of e grow in Population grow is forecast to slow from.6% in 03-4 to.9% in 04-5 and en rising.% in 07-8, according to e 04-5 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement. Source: ABS 30.0 Australian Demographic Statistics. Labour market Employment in grew 0.% 8% 6% 4% % -% Feb-06 Feb-09 Feb- Feb-5 Employment grow (rough e year) - Unemployment rate - Unemployment rate - Australia (3,300) to.37 million in February 05. Employment grew. (38,400) rough e year to February 05, higher an Australia s grow of.3% (50,900). The State s unemployment rate was 5.8% in February 05; higher an e 5.6% in e previous mon and e 5.5% a year earlier. Australia s unemployment rate was 6.3% in February 05. The State s annual average employment is forecast to grow by.5% in 04-5, wi an average unemployment rate of 5.5%, according to e 04-5 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement. Source: ABS 60.0 Monly Labour Force. March 05 Page of 0

3 March 05 Industry sector employment (annual average) Market services industries Market services industries accounted for 48% of 648,600 Non-market services industries(a) 3,750 Construction 4,300 Mining 03,000 Manufacturing ,50 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 30,850 Utilities(b) 8, , , , ,000 (a) Public administration and safety; heal care and social assistance; and education and training. (b) Electricity, gas, water and waste services. Oer mining includes non-metallic minerals mining, coal mining and mining not furer defined. Source: ABS Quarterly Labour Force. s employment in 04. Non(a) market services industries comprised 4%, construction 0.4% and mining 7.6%. In 04, employment rose in market services industries (up 3,05 or 5%), agriculture, forestry and fishing (up,75 or 4.) non-market services industries (up 7,575 or.4%) and construction (up,05 or 0.7%), but fell in all oer industries. Mining employment fell 6% (6,350) in 04, due to falls in oer mining (down 4,575 or 3%) and metal ore mining (down 4,900 or 7%), offsetting a rise in oil and gas extraction (up,350 or 4%) and exploration and oer services employment (up 375 or %). Business investment contributed 6% of s GSP in The State accounted for 6% of Australia s business investment in 04 and 5% of e value of Australia s resource projects under construction or committed in October 04. In September 04 ere was $60 billion of resource projects under construction or committed in and a furer $08 billion under consideration. Annual business investment $80b Business investment in fell 4 $60b 3 $40b Business investment 0 04 Mining new capital expenditure Share of Aust business investment (%) 9.4% in real terms in 04, compared to annual average grow of.5% over e past 0 years. The value of business investment fell 8% to $63.8 billion in 04. The value of private new capital expenditure of selected industries in fell 0.4% to $55.8 billion in 04, 36% of e Australian total. The value of mining new capital expenditure fell.% to $46. billion in 04; 55% of e Australian mining total. Excludes new capital expenditure in e industries of agriculture, forestry and fishing; public administration and safety; education and training; heal care and social assistance; and superannuation funds. Source: ABS National Accounts, 50.0 State Accounts and Private New Capital Expenditure. Quarterly business investment Business investment in fell 7% $5b $5b $5b Dec-005 Dec-008 Business investment (a) Dec-0 to $6. billion in e December quarter 04. Engineering construction work done rose 0.6% to $9.6 billion in e December quarter 04. Mining new capital expenditure rose 4% to $. billion in e December quarter 04 (not adjusted for seasonal factors). Dec-04 Engineering construction (a) Mining new capital expenditure (b) (a) Seasonally adjusted time series. (b) Original time series (not adjusted for seasonal factors). Source: ABS National Accounts, Engineering Construction and Private New Capital Expenditure. March 05 Page 3 of 0

4 March 05 Investment in major resource projects by commodity (A) Construction/committed Sep. 04 Mar infrastructure LNG Natural gas and pipelines Crude oil and condensate Gold Nickel Alumina Oer commodities and infrastructure Under consideration Sep. 04 Mar Yet to reach a final investment decision. Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resources Data Files. Major iron ore and LNG operations and projects A Mtpa [target] Start up and associated infrastructure Operations of major producers in 04: Rio Tinto BHP Billiton Fortescue Metals Group Oers exports 7 [360] 8 [90] 44 [55] 55 [57] 697 [96] [07] [07] [05] 0. 6.* * (8) 40 (9) 56 Sep.03 Sep.03 Sep.03 Sep.03 Nov. 03 Dec [0] Jun. 05 Jun. 05 Sep [7.] 4.3 [.9] 0.6 [.4] Aug.989 Apr Oct * [6] 8.9 [5] (.7) Dec. 05 Jun. 06 Dec. 06 Dec. 06 Dec. 06 Jun. 07 Mar. 08 Recently completed major projects: Rio Tinto Pilbara 90 Iron Ore Expansion Fortescue Metals Group Solomon Firetail (Port and Rail) T5 BHP Billiton Jimblebar Mine Expansion CITIC Pacific Sino Iron Cape Preston Mine & Processing Plant Fortescue Metals Group Solomon Kings T55 Rio Tinto Nammuldi Mine Expansion (Ore for Pilbara 360 Expansion) recently completed major projects Major projects under construction or committed: Fortescue Metals Group/Baosteel/Formosa Iron Bridge Rio Tinto Pilbara 360 Iron Ore Expansion (Port and Rail) Hancock Prospecting Iron Ore Mine & Infrastructure Roy Hill projects under construction or committed exports plus committed capacity expansions LNG and associated gas supply and infrastructure Operating plants: Nor West Shelf Woodside Pluto operating capacity Recently completed major projects: Woodside Nor Rankin Redevelopment Major projects under construction or committed: Gorgon Joint Venture Gas Processing Plant Woodside Greater Western Flank (Phase ) Chevron Wheatstone LNG Plant Inpex/ Ichys Gas Field Apache/KUFPEC Julimar Development (Gas for Wheatstone) Shell Prelude Floating LNG Plant Woodside Persephone gas field (Gas for Nor West Shelf) projects under construction or committed capacity of current operations and committed expansions Estimated dry tonnes for actual sales and wet tonnes for sales targets. Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group inclusive of ird party tonnes. Investment approved for port, rail, autonomous trains and power components. Investment in associated mine expansions yet to be fully approved. Mtpa - Million tonnes per annum. * Department of State Development estimate. Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Investment Monitor; Department of Industry, Mining Industry Major Projects; WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Resource and Energy Projects; company announcements/reports/presentations. March 05 Page 4 of 0

5 March 05 The value of minerals and petroleum sales in rose to in The Reserve Bank of Australia s non-rural commodity price index fell 7% in 04 (down in 03-4). The Australian dollar exchange rate fell 6% to US89.9 cents in 04 (down % in 03-4) and is forecast in e 04-5 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement to average US87. cents in 04-5 and US80.8 cents by and LNG prices (monly average) The monly average price of iron ore fell 7% to $US00 $US0 $US50 $US5 $US00 $US0 $US50 $US5 $US0 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb- Feb-3 $US0 Feb-5 /t (, fines, 6% Fe, Spot, CFR) Crude oil/barrel (West Texas Intermediate) LNG/mmbtu (, CIF) - right axis 04-5 Mid-year Financial Projections Statement Source: World Bank, Commodity Price Data (monly prices in nominal US dollars). US$63 a tonne in February 05. The annual average price fell 8% to US$97/t in 04 (down 3% to US$3/t in 03-4) and is forecast to fall to US$8/t by The monly average price of LNG fell to US$3.4 a million British ermal unit in February 05. The annual average price fell % to US$5.7/mmbtu in 04 (down % to US$6.0/mmbtu in 03-4). The monly average price of crude oil grew 7% to US$50.6 a barrel in February 05. The annual average price fell 5% to US$93/bbl in 04 (up to US$0/bbl in 03-4). The monly average price of gold fell % to US$,7. a troy ounce in February 05. The annual average price fell to US$,66/oz in 04 (down 9% to US$,96/oz in 03-4). World resource commodity production: 03 Unit Million tonnes 000 tonnes 000 tonnes Million tonnes 000 tonnes 000 tonnes 000 carats 000 tonnes Million tonnes Tonnes Garnet Zircon Alumina Nickel Ilmenite Diamonds Rutile LNG Gold WA % of world WA % of Australia , Australia , World,98,700,440 96,94 6,790 7, ,989 Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resources Data Files. Major minerals and petroleum sales (value) s iron ore sales rose 3% to $56.b $73.7b $.5b $4.4b LNG $9.9b $9.8b Crude oil(a) $9.0b $8.8b Gold Alumina $3.9b $4.3b Nickel $3.6b $3.5b $40b $60b $74 billion in 03-4 (6% of minerals and petroleum sales), wi sales volumes up 3% to 63 million tonnes. LNG sales rose 6% to $4 billion in 03-4 (% of minerals and petroleum sales), wi volumes up % to 0 million tonnes. (a) Crude oil sales fell % to $0 billion in 03-4 (8% of minerals and petroleum sales), wi volumes down % to 3 gigalitres. Gold sales fell % to $9 billion in 03-4 (7% of minerals and petroleum sales), despite volumes rising 9% to 95 tonnes. $80b (a) Includes condensate. Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Minerals and Petroleum Summary Tables. March 05 Page 5 of 0

6 March 05 and LNG sales outlook (volume) 800Mt 80Mt 600Mt 60Mt 400Mt 40Mt 00Mt 0Mt s iron ore sales are forecast to 0Mt 0Mt (left axis) LNG (right axis) rise by an annual average of 6.% to 80 million tonnes between 03-4 and LNG sales are expected to grow from 0 million tonnes in 03-4 to almost 50 million tonnes in 07-8, assuming e Gorgon, Wheatstone and Prelude projects are operating at full capacity at is time and e Nor West Shelf maintains current production levels. accounted for 4 of proposed iron ore expansions by e top 0 iron ore exporting countries in 0 and 7% of global LNG capacity under construction in 04. Note Projections and/or forecasts start in Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Minerals and Petroleum Summary Tables; 04-5 State Budget and Mid-year Financial Projections Statement; and Department of State Development. World iron ore and natural gas reserves Million tonnes World % share : Pilbara Mid West Central Yilgarn Oer regions Jun. 04 5,679 6,587, ,50 World: st Australia ( ) nd Brazil ( ) rd Russia (3 ) (4 ) India (5 ) USA (6 ) World Feb ,000 3,000 5,000 3,000 8,00 6,900 87, Natural gas Trillion cubic feet World % share : Carnarvon Basin Browse Basin Bonaparte Basin Per Basin Nov World: st Iran ( ) nd Russia ( ) rd Qatar (3 ) Turkmenistan (4 ) USA (5 ) Australia ( ) World Dec. 03,93, , Economic demonstrated resource or proved and probable reserves. Includes magnetite. Source: Department of State Development; United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries; Energy Quest, Energy Quarterly Reports; and BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Principal agricultural commodities The gross value of agriculture production in $,3m Wheat $,993m $597m Barley $988m $773m $898m Canola Wool $5m $58m Cattle & calves $463m $579m Sheep & lambs $334m $40m $m $,000m $,000m rose % to $.0 billion in The gross value of principal agricultural commodities produced rose 3% to $7. billion in The value of wheat production rose 4% to $3.0 billion in 03-4, wi volumes up 36% to 9. million tonnes. The value of e State s agri-food exports rose to $7.6 billion in $3,000m Includes wheat, barley, oats, grain sorghum, canola, cotton, apples, grapes, hay, lupins, nursery production, potatoes, tomatoes, cattle and calves, sheep and lambs, pigs, poultry, wool, milk and eggs. Includes agriculture, forestry and fishing industry products, natural and cultured pearls, and food and beverage manufacturing. Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts, International Trade in Goods and Services, Value of Principal Agricultural Commodities Produced, 7.0 Principal Agricultural Commodities. March 05 Page 6 of 0

7 March 05 In 03-4 exports of goods and services accounted for 5% of GSP. In 03-4 minerals and petroleum contributed 9 ($9 billion) of e State s merchandise exports. contributed 47% of Australia s merchandise exports in 04, accounting for large shares of national exports to (7%), (5%) and Korea (49%). was e largest market for e State s exports of iron ore (76%) and gold (64%) in 04 and crude oil and condensate (%) in In volume terms, 75% of e State s LNG went to in Merchandise trade s merchandise exports were $50b steady at $4.6 billion in 04. Merchandise exports were mainly iron ore $00b $50b Gold LNG Crude oil(a) Oer Imports (5%), LNG (%), gold () and crude oil and condensate (8%) in 04. Merchandise export volumes rose 3% in 04, above annual average grow of 5.6% in e past 0 years. Merchandise imports rose 7% to $36 billion in 04. Merchandise imports were mainly refined petroleum oil (3%), crude oil and condensate (.5%), non-monetary gold (9%) and motor vehicles (5%). (a) Includes condensate. Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services, National Accounts and 50.0 State Accounts. Major trading partners: 04 was s largest export $63.5b $4.b Sou Korea $9.8b Singapore $5.4b $4.b $.3b $.3b $4.5b Malaysia $.4b $.b Exports $40b $60b $80b market in 04 ($63.5 billion or 5%), followed by ($4 billion or 9%). overtook as e State s largest export market in (006). The State s exports to fell by 4% ($3. billion) while exports to rose by 6% ($.3 billion) in 04. Singapore was e State s largest source of imports in 04 ($4.5 billion or.5%), followed by ($4. billion or.7%). Imports Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services. Major export commodity markets: Korea Taiwan 3 Crude oil Korea Singapore Mt 4 Gold t LNG Mt Singapore UK India Korea Taiwan/oers Gl Nickel 000 t Alumina Mt Malaysia Singapore UAE Sou Africa Bahrain Sales DSD estimates 3Includes condensate 4Reference period 04 Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services; Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resources Data Files; International Group of LNG Importers, The LNG Industry; ese Ministry of Finance, LNG Imports; Korean Customs Service, Korea LNG Imports; and CEIC Premium Database. March 05 Page 7 of 0

8 March 05 Major iron ore export markets (volume) accounted for 5% of global 500Mt 400Mt 300Mt 00Mt 00Mt 0M t iron ore exports in 04, up from 47% in 03 and 4% in 0. The State s iron ore exports to rose 3 to 55 million tonnes in 04, higher an e % annual average grow in e past 0 years. exports to fell 3% to 76 million tonnes in 04. exports to Korea rose 5% to 5 million tonnes in 04. overtook as s largest iron ore export market in (005). 04 Korea Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services; and Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resource Data Files. exports $80b 60 $60b 0 The value of s iron ore exports $40b fell % to $65 billion in 04, a turnaround from annual average grow of 7% in e past 0 years. The annual average price of e State s iron ore exports fell 9% in 04. The volume of e State s iron ore exports rose 4% to 697 million tonnes in 04, above annual average grow of 3% in e past 0 years Value - left axis Price index 0 04 Volume index Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services; and Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resource Data Files. Major iron ore exporting ports 300Mt Port Hedland 393Mt 38Mt 38Mt Dampier 89Mt Cape Lambert 9Mt Geraldton 4Mt 3Mt Esperance Mt Mt Yampi Sound exports from Port Hedland rose 3% to Mt 4Mt 0M t 00Mt 00Mt 300Mt 400Mt 500Mt 393 million tonnes in 04, accounting for 56% of e State s iron ore exports. exports from Dampier remained at 38 million tonnes in 04, contributing of e State s iron ore exports. exports from Cape Lambert rose 46% to 9 million tonnes in 04, contributing 9% of e State s iron ore exports. Port auorities and iron ore producers have identified port capacity target expansions to a total of 495 million tonnes for Port Hedland by 07-8, 0 million tonnes for Cape Lambert by 04-5 and 50 million tonnes for Dampier by Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services. March 05 Page 8 of 0

9 March 05 LNG sales $5b The value of s LNG sales rose $5b 50 6% to $4 billion in 03-4, below annual average grow of 8% in e past 0 years. The annual average price of e State s LNG sales rose 4% in 03-4, above annual average grow of 8% in e past 0 years. The volume of State s LNG sales rose % to 0 million tonnes in 03-4, below annual average grow of 9% in e past 0 years Value - left axis 008 Price index 03 Volume index Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resource Data Files. Quarterly merchandise exports s merchandise exports fell 4% to $9. billion in e December quarter 04. $40b s merchandise exports to $30b Dec 005 Dec 008 Dec 0 fell % to $4.4 billion in e December quarter 04; e four successive quarterly decline. The State s merchandise exports to fell 3% to $6. billion in e December quarter 04. The State s merchandise exports to all oer countries (excludes and ) fell 8% to $8.8 billion in e December quarter 04. Dec 04 All oer countries Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services. Services trade contributed 0.8% of $5b $5b Exports 00- Imports Source: ABS (004) International Trade in Services by Country, State and Detailed Services Category. March Page 9 of 0 Australia s services exports in The State s services exports in 03-4 mainly comprised personal travel (7%), education travel (%), transport (6%), business travel (3%) and technical, trade and oer business services (9%). s services exports rose 5% to $6. billion in 03-4, mainly due to increases in education travel to e State (up to $.3 billion), personal travel to e State (up 7% to $.7 billion), transport services (up 6% to $.0 billion) and computer services (up 64% to $3 million). Services imports rose 3% to $0.7 billion in 03-4, mainly due to increases in personal travel from e State (up % to $4. billion) and freight services (up 5% to $.5 billion).

10 March 05 Regions* LEGEND (note: map is indicative only) Ichys LNG plants and projects (proposed and existing) Rio Tinto major iron ore mines and projects BHP Billiton major iron ore mines and projects Fortescue Metals Group major iron ore mines and projects Oer major iron ore mines and projects Major existing and proposed ports Prelude FLNG Browse FLNG Argyle Diamond Mine WESTERN AUSTRALIA^ Minerals & petroleum sales: $b Agricultural production: $.0b Population (grow):,573,389 (.6%) Employment:,364,69 Unemployment (rate): 74,56 (5.%) James Price Point Kimberley Broome Minerals & petroleum sales: $.b Agricultural production: $55m Population (grow): 39,099 (-.) Employment: 8,3 Unemployment (rate):,6 (.5%) Nor Rankin Redevelopment Gorgon DAMPIER Anketell PORT HEDLAND CAPE LAMBERT Karraa Pluto & e Nor West Shelf Onslow Wheatstone & Ashburton Nor Pilbara and offshore Gascoyne Tom Price Minerals & petroleum sales: $38m Agricultural production: $8m Population (grow): 9,959 (0.6%) Employment: 5,08 Unemployment (rate): 508 (8.9%) Paraburdoo Newman Minerals & petroleum sales: $99.0b Agricultural production: $6m Population (grow): 67,503 (.8%) Employment: 48,3 Unemployment (rate):,668 (3.3%) Mid West Carnarvon Minerals & petroleum sales: $3.5b Agricultural production: $634m Population (grow): 58,83 (0.6%) Employment: 30,64 Unemployment (rate):,45 (6.6%) Goldfields-Esperance Minerals & petroleum sales: $9.b Agricultural production: $584m Population (grow): 6,333 (-0.9%) Employment: 36,07 Unemployment (rate):,980 (5.%) Per/Peel Oakajee Geraldton Minerals & petroleum sales: $5.6b Agricultural production: $440m Population (grow):,08,55 (.5%) Employment:,07,497 Unemployment (rate): 58,830 (5.%) Kalgoorlie Wheatbelt Minerals & petroleum sales: $.7b Agricultural production: $.9b Population (grow): 74,774 (0.) Employment: 35,54 Unemployment (rate):,480 (4.) PERTH Fremantle Sou West Minerals & petroleum sales: $45m Agricultural production: $640m Population (grow): 74,05 (.6%) Employment: 9,84 Unemployment (rate): 3,88 (4.%) Ravensorpe Bunbury Esperance Collie Great Souern Minerals & petroleum sales: $5m Agricultural production: $787m Population (grow): 59,935 (.%) Employment: 6,8 Unemployment (rate):,5 (4.%) Albany * Reference periods Minerals and petroleum sales (03-4), agricultural production (00-), population (03-4) and labour markets (December quarter 04). ^ Reference periods 03-4 except labour markets (December quarter 04). Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Statistics Digest; Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Small Area Labour Markets; and ABS 38.0 Regional Population Grow and Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced. March 05 Page 0 of 0