PV penetration in grids - issues and trends (from the studies of Task 14) Kazuhiko Ogimoto

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1 ASEAN POWER WEEK Workshop on PV and Utilities in the context of the ASEAN Power Week in Bangkok Session 3: PV and Utilities -PVPS global experience and trends Session 3a: PV as a reliable and environmental friendly electricity source: Grid integration, PV performance and environmental aspects. PV penetration in grids - issues and trends (from the studies of Task 14) Kazuhiko Ogimoto (PVPS Task 14, The University of Tokyo, Japan)

2 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Key matters for ExCo Challenges

3 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Challenges

4 (Quelle: EPIA-Global Market Outlook 2013), 2012 figures IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY High Penetration of PV in Electricity Grids A global trend End 2014: around 177 GW installed worldwide (PVPS annual report ) PV penetration levels growing worldwide DEU ~38 GW CHN ~28 GW (+10 in 2014!) ITA ~19 GW JAP ~23 GW (+10 in 2014) USA ~18 GW

5 PV power [GW] IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY High Penetration of PV in Europe From local high penetration to RES dominated bulk power systems Partial solar eclipse on March 20, 2015 Concerns in Germany on stability of overall system Uncertainty and Variability will continue to grow as critical issues Clear sky Cloudy PV power [GW] Forecast (worst cases) Actual PV power generation Source: TRANSNET BW

6 High Penetration of PV in Japan As a results of high feed-in tariff since July 2012 in Japan, PV has penetrates into 10 balancing areas, especially in remote areas where land price is lower. Now, the Kyushu power system with PV penetration and limited interconnection is one of the systems with severest operation conditions under RE penetration. PV integration of 6.22GW PV curtailment Of 2.09GW Pump-up Thermal Demand Pump-up Peak load of 9.21GW P-gen Pumping & Export of 2.32GW Demand (7.88GW) Thermal for LFC Thermal Hydro Geothermal Nuclear Base Supply of 6.07GW One-day Dispatch in Kyushu in May with lowest power demand and highest PV generation. (8GW PV in 15 GW annual peak load, Source: Material of Power System working Group (2014))

7 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Challenges

8 Task 14: Overall objectives of this international collaboration Promote the use of grid connected PV as an important source in electric power systems also on a high penetration level where additional efforts may be necessary to integrate the dispersed generators in an optimum manner. Develop and verify mainly technical requirements for PV and electric power systems to allow for high penetrations of PV systems interconnected with the grid Discuss the active role of PV systems related to energy management and system control of electricity grids Reduce the technical barriers to achieve high penetration levels of distributed renewable energy systems on the electric power system

9 Task 14: Overall objectives of this international collaboration Discuss the market implications of technical solutions for the integration of PV at high penetration levels Discuss and develop new solutions for operation and grid planning for High PV Penetration scenarios Re-think existing rules-of-thumb and practices with respect to their validity with high-penetration PV Discuss the opportunities for PV to provide advanced grid support services for local as well as system wide use. Discuss the possible role of PV in a future Smart Grid

10 IEA PVPS Task 14: Outcomes Support PV integration on high penetration levels by access to more transparent technical analyses guidelines and best practices for industry, network operators, energy planners as well as authorities in the energy business comprehensive international studies for high penetration PV Develop key methodologies for large scale PV integration PV Power Forecast Active management and control of grid integrated PV Grid interconnection studies and planning Technical standards and interconnection requirements Active dissemination of objective and neutral high-quality information Task 14 Reports Task 14 Workshops National information networks of Task 14 members

11 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Challenges

12 IEA PVPS Task 14 ( ) Organization and structure Cross Cutting Subtask (NEW): Market implications with High PV Penetration Subtask 1(extended): Energy management with high PV penetration: Switzerland Subtask 2 (extended): High penetration in local distribution grids: Germany Subtask 3 (extended): High penetration solutions for central PV generation scenarios: Japan Subtask 4 (extended): Smart power converters for high penetration PV and Smart Grids: Austria Subtask 5 (NEW): Communication and Control for high penetration of PV: Singapore & Germany

13 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Challenges

14 Task 14 Previous Meetings 8 th experts meeting Sydney, Australia, November th experts meeting Geneva, Switzerland, April 2014 Informal experts meeting, Amsterdam, September th experts meeting Kyoto, Japan, November 2014

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16 Monitoring and prediction tools (Subtask 1, CHE) Figures revised Monitoring and prediction tools to anticipate the shift in local grid Achievements o o o o Questionnaire Use of solar and PV forecasts for enhanced PV integration filled in by 14 organizations Forecasting methods for different forecast horizons Point forecasts and area forecasts Forecast accuracy Deliverable o D 1.1: joined Report with activity 3.1 PV and solar forecasting : State of the art published in October 2013

17 PV generation in correlation with energy demand (Subtask 1, CHE) Analysis of PV generation in correlation with energy demand in household Basis case applied in - Germany - Switzerland - Portugal - Denmark - USA: Virginia & Tenessee, Colombus Ohio, Southern California Typical Houshold case studies: GER, CHE

18 Energy management system and local storage (Subtask 1, CHE) Analyze energy management system and local storage to improve the penetration of PV in local grid (household or very local industrial loads) Achievements o o o o o Whitepapers and studies analysed (CHE, USA, SWE) Test site in CHE for the local management of PV energy with storage Analyses of several typical household load profiles (various countries) Overview of local energy management concepts together with photovoltaic Self-consumed PV potential is estimated depending on the country and the load profile. Deliverable o D 1.2 : Report Network driven demand side management and storage in households (by 05/2015)

19 PV variability models (Subtask 1, PRT) Existing methods to describe variability Representative Blocks Dispersion Factor Method and ramp rate correlation Wavelet Variability Model (WVM)

20 Task 14 Extension Subtask 1 Energy management with high PV penetration Context PV is a key driver of new opportunities for local energy management. Existing rules for the integration of PV into grid are generally missing the opportunity to match production with an existing consumption. Focus on the technical and economic value of energy management in relation with local consumption in other configurations. Local energy management can facilitate the integration of measure to integrate PV as a major energy sources. Objectives Identifying technical solution and economic opportunities with PV and local energy management in residential area (extension of 1.2) Identifying technical solution and economic opportunities with PV and local energy management in industrial area (new 1.4) Identifying technical solution and economic opportunities with PV and local energy management in virtual power plant (new 1.5) Confirmed Lead: CHE (PLANAIR) Duration:

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22 High PV penetration in distribution grids (Subtask 2, GER) Distribution grid case studies of 11 countries Australia, Austria, Belgium, China, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, USA Source: E.on Bayern/Fraunhofer IWES Each case study includes The National Distribution Grid Structure Interconnection of PV Systems: Technical and Regulatory Framework Required Control Capabilities for Photovoltaic Inverters Case Studies for High PV Penetration Scenarios Upcoming Regulatory Changes and Future Challenges for High PV Penetration State-of-the-Art and advanced solutions for the transition of local distribution grids provided by the PV system (inverter) the grid operator (planning & operation) Source: SMUD/NREL

23 High PV penetration in distribution grids (Subtask 2, GER) The role of PV in Electricity grids at various penetration levels

24 High PV penetration in distribution grids (Subtask 2, GER) Deliverables Report on current experiences of high PV penetration and active / reactive power control strategies in distribution grids -> country specific measures for increasing the local PV penetration in distribution grids in a technically effective and economically efficient way (published by 10/2014) Report on Recommendations for managing the transition from One-Directional to Bi-Directional Distribution Grids State-of-the-Art and advanced solutions for the transition of local distribution grids Entering the final stage: Future prospects for the transition towards high national penetration scenarios (Submission by 10/2014) Presented at EU PVSEC Amsterdam 2014 (keynote)

25 Task 14 Extension Subtask 2 High PV penetration in local distribution grids Context New challenges include technical as well as economical aspects of distribution system operation and planning Need for standardised integration solutions for PV dominated distribution systems Objectives Collection and presentation of distribution feeder taxonomy approaches for high PV-penetration scenarios (Activity 2.5) Presentation of PV screening techniques for PV interconnection studies (Activity 2.6) Operational and long-term planning using advanced capabilities and techniques (including short-term PV forecast approaches, advanced functionalities of PV systems ) (Activity 2.8) Discussion and description of the future capabilities of distribution grid to transmission system for high PV-penetration scenarios (Activity 2.7) Confirmed Lead: DEU (Fraunhofer IWES) Duration:

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27 Power System Operation Planning with PV Integration (Subtask 3, JPN) REVISED Transmission-Level Power system studies of 10 countries Japan, USA, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Australia, China Major issues of increasing PV penetration at transmission level is the demand supply balancing due to an increased variability of PV and other variable renewable generation due to decreased flexibility of the traditional generation fleetness. This requires Variability analysis and Forecasting Power system operation optimization Deployment balancing (flexibility) capabilities including demand activation, distributed storage, and interconnections Power System Augmentation Planning including major PV Penetration Forced outage probability of thermal power plants (non-gaussian, discrete probability density) MARKET GATE CLOSURE LOAD forecast error (Gaussian distribution) Depending on weekly hour Forecast of: Load, Wind, Solar PV. Conventional generation unit commitment & dispatching) UNCERTAINTIES EVALUATION & PROBABILISTIC COMBINATION WIND forecast error (Gaussian distribution) Depending on time horizon Simple Gaussian summation Summation convolution (level of confidence 95%) SOLAR PV forecast error (Gaussian distribution) Depending on sky clearness index REQUIRED POWER BALANCING RESERVE for the specified hourly time horizon of the day a-head Source: NREL Source: Y.M. Saint Drenan/Fraunhofer IWES

28 Power System Operation Planning with PV Integration (Subtask 3, JPN) REVISED In order to realize higher penetration of PV resolving the issues of transmission levels, the operational and asset optimization of traditional and innovative components is inevitable. Generation control/ curtailment Demand activation Enhanced operation Forecasting and optimum operation Reinforcem t and enhanced operation Subtask 3 Report: Figure 2.5-1: The enhanced power system operation by optimized utilization of the whole resources of flexibility against the smoothed variability Source: Ogimoto, Laboratory.

29 Power System Operation Planning with PV Integration (Subtask 3, JPN) Deliverables Activity 3.1: Report on System-wide PV generation analysis and forecast (published 10/2013) Activity : Report Power system operation planning with PV integration -> Describes high penetration solutions for central PV generation scenarios including aspects of Power system operation and augmentation planning with PV integration. (published 04/2015) Presented at EU PVSEC Amsterdam 2014

30 Task 14 Extension Subtask 3 High penetration solutions for central PV generation scenarios Context Subtask 3 will survey the resources for flexible transmission system operation, surveys and case studies of innovative transmission system operation with generation forecast in two steps, and surveys and case studies of asset optimization for high PV penetration. Objectives Identification of existing and future flexibility resources for flexible transmission system operation (Activity 3.4) Evaluation of capability of innovative power system operation of the transmission level with generation forecast in two steps (Activity 3.5) Evaluation of transmission stability of a power system with flexibility resources (Activity 3.6) Recommendation of Asset optimization for high PV penetration (Activity 3.7) Confirmed Lead: JPN (University of Tokyo) Duration:

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32 Smart Inverters for High-Pen PV (Subtask 4, AUT) Define inverter technology requirements for successful integration of a high penetration of PV in the electricity grids Discussion and study on current vs. future requirements for PV inverters The inverter as interface between PV generation and the grid The inverter as future multifunctional device for grid support The inverter as future hub for system monitoring and control

33 Smart Inverters for High-Pen PV (Subtask 4, AUT) Worldwide collection and review of requirements for PV inverters and grid connection Functional requirements Protection Control Safety Focus: specific requirements for grid support by PV Compatibility of requirements with High-Pen PV Report on Opportunities for Smart PV inverters in High-Penetration scenarios (Submission by 06/2015) Report on Technical capabilities and Inverter Topologies (Submission by 06/2015)

34 Task 14 Extension Subtask 4 Smart Power Converters for high-penetration PV & Smart Grids Context The subtask will discuss and investigate new requirements and new functionalities of power converters (inverters) which are needed for the full integration of PV generation systems into future Smart Grids. A particular focus will be laid on grids and power systems with a massive share of nonrotating variable generation (mainly PV and wind), where stability and control issues become vital for the extended deployment of RES. Objectives Survey, highlight and propose power converter technology requirements for the integration of PV systems into future grids with a massive share of non-rotational generation and RES Provide a continuously updated overview on grid connection requirements for PV systems and PV power converters Investigate needs and requirements (functionalities as well as ICT related) arising from grid control schemes in order to make the PV system a key part of future smart grids Investigation and benefit analysis of possible add-on functionalities of PV power converters (e.g. STATCOM operation, synthetic inertia etc.) Discuss and review new opportunities for grid services provided by PV power converters in combination with local storage Confirmed Lead: AUT (AIT Austrian Institute of Technology) Duration:

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36 Task 14 Extension New Subtask 5 Communication and control for High Pen PV Context To balance the interests and technical solutions for a whole variety of new and future technologies (not only PV) include renewable energy integration (not only focusing on solar, but especially also on wind, where applicable), and extend even more so into smart metering, demand-side management and/or direct load control. To ensure that PV grid integration solutions are well-aligned with such comprehensive requirements it is indispensable to analyze also in detail the challenges and solutions for the PV grid integration from a smart grid perspective and to suggest future-compliant solutions.. Objectives Analyze appropriate control strategies and communication technologies to integrate a high number of distributed PV in smart electricity networks Overview of communication technologies, protocols, interfaces Special focus on IT-related aspects (incl. cyber security) PV as enabling technology for smart grids Tentative Lead: GER (Ulm) / SGP (NUS-SERIS) Duration:

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38 Task 14 Extension Cross Cutting Subtask Market implications with High PV Penetration Objectives Introduce aspects related to market design with High PV Penetration into the scope of Task 14 and coordinate these activities with Task 1. Collaboration with other activities working on market issues (e.g. Task 1) and (external) stakeholders Weave together technical information from other subtasks and investigate with respect to their implications for the (existing) market and put them into a market context Development of Building blocks which can be used by others for market design with PV Tentative lead (subject to availability of budget): AUS Duration:

39 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Challenges

40 Task 14 dissemination and interaction with key stakeholders ADDED Task 14 High Penetration Workshops Successful series of events since 2010 with more than 500 participants : Joint WS with European MetaPV Project, Brussels, Belgium, supported by 3e and EPIA Joint Task 1 & 14 WS at EU PVSEC: Self-consumption business models - Technical and economic challenges jrganised by IEA PVPS, EPIA : Joint PVPS Task 14 & SHC Task 46 WS at EU PVSEC Solar resource and forecast data for high PV penetration electricity : Task 14 WS workshop, Kassel, Germany, Hosted by SMA : Task 14 Utility and Research workshop, Beijing, China, hosted by the IEE, Chinese Academy of Sciences : Task 14 WS, Golden, CO, U.S.A. Hosted U.S. DoE, NREL and SEPA : Task 14 utility WS, Lisbon, Portugal, Hosted by EDP : Joint Task 1/14 workshop European PVSEC/ WCPEC in Valencia : Joint Task14 & ISGAN Annex 6, Wien hosted by AIT : Task 14 WS, Geneva, Switzerland, hosted by Planair, SIG and HEPIA Oct 2012: Task 14 workshop, Tokyo, Japan, Hosted by NEDO November 2013: PV and the electricity grid workshop, Sydney, Australia, hosted by UNSW

41 Task 14 Inter-task coordination and liaisons to other IAs REVISED IEA-SHC IEA SHC Task 36/46 Solar Resource Knowledge Management, liaison on issues related to solar resource availability, forecasting and spatial/temporal variability IEA SHC Task 53 New Generation Solar Cooling & Heating Systems IEA-ISGAN Annex 2 Smart Grid Case Studies Annex 5 Smart Grid International Research Facility Network Annex 6 Power T&D Systems IEA Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) project: how to balance power systems featuring large shares of VRE Phase 3: Economics of Flexibility GIVAR Phase 4: in preparation -> market implications IEA-Wind IEA Wind Task 25 Design and operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power IEA-PVPS PV & Utilities within PVPS and IEA T14 T15 on DSM: to be defined T1 T14: to be defined

42 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Challenges

43 IEA PVPS Task 14: Networks 16 Countries Broad expertise Participants from Utilities, DNOs Industry, manufacturers, consultancies Applied research Universities Agencies List of contacts: Link Industry association European commission Candidate countries

44 IEA PVPS Task 14 High Penetration PV in Electricity Grids Contents Back ground Overview IEA PVPS Task 14 Work plan Update on Progress Dissemination Status of participation Challenges

45 Impact of High Penetration of PV Revised New innovative models With current electricity market models and mechanisms variable renewables fundamentally influence spot market prices and undermine business models of conventional power plants: The wholesale markets and the power system operation and asset planning/ investment are not adapted to the impacts. The essential trend is the shift of values in power industry, from energy to balancing capability (flexibility). Now it is crucially important to envision the future power system/industry evolution including centralized/distributed operation models and business models.

46 Ongoing challenges [Energy mix and Asset planning] Additional electrification Mix of renewable energy Location of RE deployment [Operation] Traditional and innovative balancing technologies in various time ranges Centralized generation operation RE control/curtailment Demand activation Interconnector/Transmission/distribution system Optimized operation including generation forecast Generation forecast and optimized system operation Redesign of whole sale/retail market of electricity [Business] Business models of each level/area

47 Thank you for your attention