ICEF INNOVATION ROADMAP PROJECT

Transcription

1 ICEF INNOVATION ROADMAP PROJECT David Sandalow Inaugural Fellow, Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University These roadmaps are created to facilitate discussions at the Fourth Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (Tokyo October 2017) and release at COP 23 (Bonn November 2017).

2 ICEF INNOVATION ROADMAP PROJECT GOALS To use the ICEF platform to help promote the development and deployment of clean energy technologies To promote global awareness of the ICEF conference 1

3 ICEF INNOVATION ROADMAP PROJECT SOLAR AND STORAGE ROADMAP (2015) ZERO ENERGY BUILDINGS ROADMAP (2016) CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP (2016) -- Each released in draft at ICEF (October) and final at Climate COP (November/ December) 2

4 2017 ACTIVITIES Carbon Dioxide Utilization Roadmap 2.0 Energy Storage Roadmap Image: 3

5 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 1.0 (2016) Analyzed CO2 utilization technologies and market potential in wide range of areas. Identified four priorities: building materials, chemical intermediaries, fuels and polymers Found significant market and CO 2 mitigation potential 4

6 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) Deeper analysis of: Cement and aggregates (near-term) Chemicals (medium-term) Durable carbon materials (long-term) Policy options Life cycle analysis 5

7 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) Key Messages R&D required to bring most products to market Market development will require policy support Life cycle assessment is key 6

8 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) We analyzed three CO 2 utilization opportunities: Near-term: Cement & Aggregates GreenOre project: Baotou, China Mid-term: Chemicals Primus Green Energy: methanol plant Long-term: Durable Carbon Materials Apple theater: Carbon fiber roof 7

9 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) Concrete and aggregates present a large, near-term opportunity Adding CO 2 to regular concrete can improve it s performance and reduce use of carbon-intensive cement CO2-based concrete and aggregates need R&D and work on standards Rigid regulation and standards, along with entrenched practices in the construction industry present a challenge 8

10 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) Commodity chemicals are being produced from CO 2 using existing technology pathways Thermocatalytic methanol production commercialized at small-scale Biochemical alcohol production from carbon monoxide demonstrated and being scaled-up Image: CRI Thermocatalytic methane production ( power-to-gas ) is being piloted by multiple companies Targeted R&D needed to reduce costs and create additional technology pathways 9

11 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) Durable carbon materials present a new, growing market Key opportunities: Carbon fiber, graphene, carbon nanotubes, carbon black High leverage on energy-saving applications (e.g. light-weighting) Significant market size; potentially very high market value No current market; limited R&D 10

12 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) Need increased R&D to realize CO2U opportunities CO 2 -based carbon materials will have to compete with other non-traditional materials (e.g. lignin-based carbon fiber) Key R&D challenge: process control to achieve high-quality product Electrolysis-based: will need to achieve production scale New applications will help drive market 11

13 LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS CO 2 UTILIZATION

14 ICEF CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) Policy Tools 1. Government support for R&D 2. Carbon Price 3. Mandates 4. Pipeline development 5. Government procurement 6. Lifecycle assessments 7. Certification and testing 8. Product labeling 13 13

15 Energy Storage Roadmap: Why Energy Storage? Roadmap Rationale ICEF concept pursues long term net-zero emissions through innovation. To assist the transformation, energy storage will work as one of important enabling technologies. Energy storage in supply Energy storage in demand Low-carbon supply Low-carbon demand Transformation toward net-zero emissions Energy storage technology can enhance energy system flexibility. It fills the gap between electricity and/or heat supply-demand in terms of time and/or space. Benefits of storage technologies Improving resource use efficiency Integrating high level variable renewable resources End-use sector electrification especially in transport Supporting production of energy where it is consumed Increasing energy access Improving electricity grid stability, flexibility, reliability, and resilience. 14

16 Energy Storage Demand Current Power Storage Capacity 159GW of energy storage are deployed in % is pumped storage hydropower. For stationary energy storage, it is estimated that 1,365GW are deployed in 2060 in 2DS scenario, while 1,589GW in B2DS scenario. For mobile battery, it is estimated that about 28TWh are deployed in 2060 in 2DS scenario, while about 62TWh in B2DS scenario. RTS: Reference Technology Scenario 2DS: 2 degree C Scenario B2DS: Beyond 2 degree C Scenario 1700 Stationary Energy Storage Capacity Battery Storage Capacity GW GWh All other sectors RTS 2DS B2DS (Source: ETP2017, IEA) DS B2DS (Source: ETP2017, IEA) EV batteries 15

17 Large Stationary Energy Storage for Power System Variable renewable power (VRP) share and storage requirement in power system with technology choices Total storage capacity Storage alternative (The order varies depending on technology readiness and region-specific conditions including power system design policy.) Dispatchable power supply Curtailment of VRP output Demand side adjustment Transmission network enhancement Consolidation of balancing areas Energy carrier conversion (Source: The Institute of Applied Energy) Discharge duration Season Week Day Hour Minute Unit scale Large Small Second Small Small Large VRP share 16

18 Mobility Energy Storage Powertrain choice Electric vehicles Energy stored in battery, low-carbon carriers (electricity) Current issues in transportation electrification Driving range, heavy weight, space utility Specific power, energy density, specific energy Charging time High power charging - safety concern of high voltage - broad conductor for large current Battery replacement Road Electrification? Hydrogen for Fuel Cell Vehicle Cost reduction? Vehicle to grid? Stationary use of used battery? (Source: IEA, Technology Roadmap EV/PHEV, original source-saft ) 17

19 Energy StorageTechnologies Focused on Three Energy Storage Technology Categories Stationary Energy Storage for Power System Mobility Energy Storage for Transportation Air conditioning 太陽光 風力等 Photovoltaics etc. Energy storage technologies (Source: IEA, Technology Roadmap Energy Storage) Stationary Thermal Storage System EV station (source: San Diego Gas & Electric ) Lighting Water heating District heating accumulation tower of Theiss, Austria (source: Wikipedia) 18

20 Roadmap for Stationary Energy Storage for Power System: Technologies (source) summarized by The Institute of Applied Energy from various information sources PSH CAES Control Optimization / Demonstration LAES System Optimization / Scaled-up Plant Demonstration Power to X * System Demonstration NaS Battery Redox Flow Li Ion Next Generation Battery (Next Generation Li Ion & Others) Cost Reduction MDS System Developments / Optimization Cost Reduction MDS Material Developments / Optimization Cell/Module System Development Demonstration PCS** Post Si Device & Module Development SMES Cooling technology Improvement / Cost Reduction Demonstration Flywheel Reduction of Frictional Losses / Cost Reduction Demonstration PSH: Pumped-Storage Hydropower High Surface Area Carbon Material Capacitor CAES: Compressed Air Energy Storage Development / Cost Reduction Demonstration LAES: Liquid Air Energy Storage SMES: Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage * X = Conversion to hydrogen is initial step toward X in most cases. ** PCS: Power Conditioning System :Matured, diffusion through mass production :Technology R&D 19

21 Roadmap for EV Battery : Technologies (source) summarized by The Institute of Applied Energy from various information sources PHEV Target Energy Density: Battery Cost: 250Wh/kg $180 EV Target Energy Density: 250Wh/kg Battery Cost: <$180/kWh 500Wh/kg <$90/kWh 700Wh/kg <$45/kWh Lithium Ion Battery Cell Material New materials Development / Optimization Mass Production New Process Establishment / Cell Design Optimization Post Lithium Ion Battery EV Technology All-solid-state Lithium Battery Metal Air Battery (M=Zn, Li, Mg, Al etc.) Cell/Module System Development Basic Research Demonstration / Optimization Cell Development Demonstration PCS Post Si Device & Module Development :Matured, diffusion through mass production :Technology R&D 20

22 Energy Storage Roadmap: Summaries Energy Storage for Power System Enabling technology for large share variable renewable power Should be designed in flexibility technology portfolio Market and institution to recover storage investment Mobility Energy Storage Enabling technology for transportation electrification Can work as stationary storage via grid connection Issues remain in charging, high energy density material, etc. Heat Storage Can store renewable-based or environmental heat Market creation - Different heat demand by regional condition 21

23 ICEF INNOVATION ROADMAP PROJECT SOLAR AND STORAGE ROADMAP (2015) ZERO ENERGY BUILDINGS ROADMAP (2016) CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 1.0 (2016) CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION ROADMAP 2.0 (2017) ENERGY STORAGE ROADMAP (2017) 22

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