Capital Market Day Roland Schuler, Member of the Management Board of BayWa AG Rain, September 2010

Transcription

1 Capital Market Day 2010 BayWa r.e - Business Model Roland Schuler, Member of the Management Board of BayWa AG Rain, September 2010

2 Agenda 1 The Energy Segment 2 The Renewable Energy Market 3 Strategic Direction of BayWa r.e 4 BayWa r.e and its Subsidiaries 5 BayWa r.e Future Scenarios Roland Schuler 2

3 The BayWa Energy Segment Agriculture Building Materials Energy Energy Heating oil Fuel Lubricants Solid fuels Services BayWa r.e GmbH Biomass/Biogas Solar technology Wind energy Other renewable technologies Roland Schuler 3

4 Agenda 1 The Energy Segment 2 The Renewable Energy Market 3 Strategic Direction of BayWa r.e 4 BayWa r.e and its Subsidiaries 5 BayWa r. e Future Scenarios Roland Schuler 4

5 Market Development The EU s Current Energy Challenges Greenhouse gas emissions; long-term, unabated climate change to cost up to 20% of GDP In 2009 the EU s Member States imported enery at a cost of 234 bn High oil price volatility prevents effective cost planning Supply insecurity causes social and economic o c hardship ads 20 million tons of particulate matter polluting the air Roland Schuler 5

6 Market Development EU policy by 2020 European Comission, Directorate for Energy Roland Schuler 6

7 Market Development Progress towards the 2010 targets - patchy European Comission, Directorate for Energy Roland Schuler 7

8 Market Development Participating in Market Growth EU Geothermal Biomass, Biogenic waste Hydroelectric power Wind power Solar energy Source: European Renewable Energy Council, Belgium, 2007 Scarcity of resources and demand for sustainable solutions create long-term opportunities, making Renewable Energy a key future market Roland Schuler 8

9 Development of the Energy Mix Structure of primary energy consumption in an updated lead scenario by source of energy (efficiency method) Development of contribution by RE to end-user energy in an updated lead scenario Fossil fuels are becoming less important A rise from 10% to 28% in the share of Renewable Energy sources within the Energy Mix is predicted between the years 2009 and 2050 Electricity 47%; heating 25%; traffic 18% Lead scenario of the German Renewable Energy Federation (Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energie) Roland Schuler 9

10 Expansion of Renewable Energy through to 2020 in Germany [installed power -in GW] 160,0 140,0 Equates to 37% of the total power consumption 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20, Hydropower* 4,7 4,8 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,2 Onshore Wind 18,4 26,8 30,5 32,9 34,4 35,9 Offshore Wind - 0,2 2,5 9,0 16,4 23,8 Biomass 2,6 5,3 6,8 7,9 8,2 8,5 Photovoltaic 19 1,9 89 8,9 16,66 42,0 53,55 65,0 Geothermal energy - - 0,1 0,3 0,6 1,0 *without Pumped-storage hydroelectricity Challenges: - Adjusting of the power grid - Development of storage technologies - Cross-border cooperation Source: BMU (German Fed.Ministry for the Environment) scenario 2009; BMU substantiation amendment to the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) of 3 March 2010 Roland Schuler 10

11 Political Consensus is present Electricity production in North Rhine-Westphalia is to be switched to a gradually rising proportion generated by renewable energy. Renewable Energy is to be given priority over all other sources of energy. (Coalition agreement between the SPD (Social Democrats) Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens), NRW 2010) Germany s Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen expressed his expecation to the Hamburger Abendblatt that we can achieve almost full power supply from Renewable Energy by (28 July 2010) The FDP wants 100 percent power sourced from renewable energy, but we won t achieve this overnight. (Michael Kauch, 6 May 2010) Roland Schuler 11

12 Development of Wind Energy ( ) Growth in 2009 Europe MW 10,474 D + 1,880 MW (7.9%) E + 2,460 MW (14.8%) I + 1,114 MW (30%) F + 1,117 MW (30%) UK MW (30%) Est % Lit % HU % EC = Europäische Kommission; IEA = Interanational Energy Agency; EWEA = European Wind Energy Assocation Pol % 1% Even conservative projections assume that the market will have doubled by 2020 Roland Schuler 12

13 Biomethane Current Situation 2009: 39 plants connected to the grid Heterogeneous plant size - Plant output from 125 Nm³/h to 5,000 Nm³/h in 2009 (Guestrow) - Plant output from 210 Nm³/h to 6,000 Nm³/h (Schwedt, Zoerbig) in : 24 new plants are to be connected to the grid Installed output 2010: 48,000 Nm³/h Target 2020: 1,800 biomethane plants (under German government's plan) Raw materials requirement = 10 % of current demand Roland Schuler 13

14 Development of the Photovoltaic (PV) market Development of the PV market Germany vs RoW Global market share of the PV market in 2010 Commentary Decline of the global PV market in 2009 caused by slump in Spanish market Projected growth : Global ca. 27% and Germany 13% The EU share of the global market will grow continuously Germany s share of market: Global 41% and EU 60% Roland Schuler 14

15 Government Subsidies More and more countries are adopting the German model of government subsidies Countries with feed-in tariffs Feed-in tariffs are a popular tool of support German feed-in tariff model is being adopted worldwide 2009: 49 countries with feed-in tariffs 2010: joined by the UK and Taiwan Roland Schuler 15

16 Feed-in Tariffs Decision by the German government to cut subsidies for solar energy Forthcoming Subsidy Reductions Gradual reduction of feed-in tariffs by up to 16% through to 1 October 2010 (as from 1 July %) Lowering of tariffs for plants on redeveloped sites by 12% PV plants on arable land no longer remunerated Possible cuts in the feed-in rates by up to 42% by 1 January 2012, depending on the growth of installed volume Direct consumption regulation: advantage compared to feed-in tariffs is up to 8 cents/kwh (for plants of up to 800 kwp) But: - Declining unit costs due to capacity-related and learning curve effects (ca 10-15%) - Market shift away from ground-mounted to rooftop projects - Return of 7-9% still achievable for investors All in all, the business of installers and system integrators is less affected than that of manufacturers, as the increase in remuneration for private consumption more than compensates for cuts in rooftop systems Roland Schuler 16

17 Agenda 1 The Energy Segment 2 The Renewable Energy Market 3 Strategic Direction of BayWa r.e 4 BayWa r.e and its Subsidiaries 5 BayWa r. e Future Scenarios Roland Schuler 17

18 Strategic Fit Market for fossil fuels in steady decline - Peak oil - Emotional reasons Roland Schuler 18

19 Development on the German Heating Oil Market 30 28,5 28,1 Volume trend - ACTUAL and forecast ,4 25,4 25,4 23,8-2 % 25 23,4 22,9 22, lions of tons 20 17,2 20,6 21,9 21,4 21,1 20,7 20,3 19,9 19,5 19,2 In mil ACTUAL 2006 forecast by the Association of the German Petroleum Industry The German heating oil market is set to decline by ca. 2% a year through to 2020 Roland Schuler 19

20 Strategic Fit Market for fossil fuels in steady decline - Peak oil - Emotional reasons Market for Renewable Energy becoming increasingly important - global demand for energy on the rise - environmental awareness on the rise BayWa has a number of operations in the Renewable Energy sector Renewable Energy is a swift and ideal supplement to the Energy Segment Long-term safeguarding of the Energy Segment External growth in fossil energy to compensate for market declines New business lines in the field of heating and mobility (e.g. contracting) Start-up of trading in new products (electricity, gas) Consistent entry into the Renewable Energy market through the targeted acquisition of promising companies Internationalisation of the Renewable Energy business Roland Schuler 20

21 Vision BayWa r.e 100% Renewable Energy Trading in ecologically produced power and gas Sustainable construction Geothermal energy Hydroelectric power Strategic partnerships Bio energy Solar energy Wind energy Developing the market for Renewable Energy with passion in an economically viable and reliable way Roland Schuler 21

22 Goals, Strategy and Tasks GOALS Profitable growth Sustainable management STRATEGY Positioning in the market through Expansion into existing and acquisition of established market emerging g markets and profitable, participants organic growth Evolving into one of the leading Internationalisation contacts and service providers for Renewable Energy in Europe TASKS Development and coordination of investments in future-oriented businesses Effective coordination and synchronisation of the BayWa Group and subsidiaries Securing a lean organisation structure and efficient processes Coordination of joint projects in the business units Energy and Renewable Energy (e.g. contracting) as well as other business units within the Group Roland Schuler 22

23 Unique Selling Proposition of BayWa r.e BayWa r.e Full-line supplier of wind, solar and biogas projects Established, successful subsidiaries with long-standing international experience Coverage of all services within the value chain Part of German and pan-eu network through 3,000 BayWa sales locations and through locations of the other subsidiaries Huge development potential backed by the financial strength of BayWa AG As a company owned by the BayWa Group and a holding company for the subsidiaries BayWa r.e has significant competitive advantages Roland Schuler 23

24 BOOT Strategy Fund Solution Investment phase EUR 50 m 12% IRR Wind (variable tranches) Photovoltaics Return Biogas 55%70% 5.5%-7.0% Fonds I II III Renewable Energy PWC audit Aufwind prospectus p Sponsor XY bank Sales XY CO-Investors 70% borrowed funds 30% Equity Bridge financing Project development Project execution Operation Exit 2-3 years Raw materials management, services, operations remain with BayWa r.e for the whole term Institutional investors Energy providers Family Offices Pension funds Roland Schuler 24

25 Agenda 1 The Energy Segment 2 The Renewable Energy Market 3 Strategic Direction of BayWa r.e 4 BayWa r.e and its Subsidiaries 5 BayWa r.e Future Scenarios Roland Schuler 25

26 BayWa r.e as a New Market Participant Feb Founding of the holding company Aug Acquisition of Aufwind Neue Energien GmbH (51%) Dec Acquisition of Renerco AG (87,8%) Jan Acquisiton MHH Solartechnik GmbH (100%) Feb Renaming of company as BayWa r.e GmbH May 2010 Acquisition of r.e Biomethan (50%) July 2010 Acquisition of Schraden Biogas GmbH & Co. KG (94,5%) BayWa r.e is a logical and necessary link in the field of Renewable Energy as part of the value chain of BayWa Roland Schuler 26

27 Structure and Tasks Holding management Interface functions between the BayWa-Group and its subsidiaries Financing Coordination Project support Fund management 50% % 87.8% 50% 94.5% 50% BayWa r.e, a wholly-owned owned subsidiary of BayWa AG, functions as a holding. It acts as an interface and supports the subsidiaries in financing, coordination and support Roland Schuler 27

28 Renewable Energy Business Lines of BayWa AG Project segments Tasks Components Planning/ project Trade Installation Operation/ management maintenance Energy production/ trading Rooftop PV plants Retail Wholesale Ground-mounted photovoltaic plants Onshore Wind parks Small biogas plants (<500kW) Large biogas plants Wood pellets Ethanol from cereal grains Lubricants for biogas engines Roland Schuler 28

29 Profile of Aufwind Neue Energien Company Aufwind Neue Energien GmbH Headquarters & staff Regensburg g 29 employees Business line Project development, financing and technical/commercial operation of biogas plant Products/ services Plant design: Implementation: Finance: Service: Development, dimensioning and comparative cost accounting Approvals procedure, checking of grid capacities, preparations for construction Consulting services in respect of biogas funds Operations and raw materials management Locations Regensburg, Poznań Poland, Barcelona Spain Roland Schuler 29

30 Profile of r.e Biomethan Company r.e Biomethan GmbH Headquarters & staff Regensburg 4 employees Lines of business Trading in biomethane Products / services Biomethane trading Technical and commercial management of transmisson systems Certification Location Regensburg Roland Schuler 30

31 Profile of MHH Solartechnik Company MHH Solartechnik GmbH Headquarters & staff Tuebingen 100 employees Lines of business System integrator of PV plants, with consultancy and planning competencies through to sales Products/ services Products: Solar panels (various brands), inverters, mounting systems, standalone solutions, roof integration, own assembly systems & accessory installation kits Services: Consultancy services, planning, plant construction and financial consulting services Locations Tuebingen, Munich, Nuremberg, Duisburg, Toulouse - France Roland Schuler 31

32 Profile of Renerco Company Renerco Renewable Energy Concepts AG Headquarters & staff Munich 50 employees Lines of business Project management, development of wind and solar parks and energy production as well as consultancy services and plant operation for third parties Products / services Project development: Energy production: Services: Project management and development of wind and solar parks Operation of own wind, solar and hydroelectric power plants Consultancy services, technical/commercial operation of plants for third parties, services for plants sold Location Munich Roland Schuler 32

33 Profile of Schradenbiogas Company Schradenbiogas GmbH & Co. KG Headquarters & staff Groeden 50 employees Lines of business Operation of biogas plants based on organic waste Products / services Raw gas & electricity Logistics (waste transport, container management incl. cleaning) Technical and commercial operation Consultancy services & engineering Locations Groeden, Alteno, Groß Muehlingen Roland Schuler 33

34 Agenda 1 The Energy Segment 2 The Renewable Energy Market 3 Strategic Direction of BayWa r.e 4 BayWa r.e and its Subsidiaries 5 BayWa r. e Future Scenarios Roland Schuler 34

35 Future Scenarios Expansion of existing business activities in existing markets (projects, trading, services) Entry into new markets with existing business activities (Europe in the short term) Roland Schuler 35

36 Future Scenarios Progress towards the 2010 targets - patchy European Commission, Directorate for Energy Roland Schuler 36

37 Future Scenarios Position paper p of the Italian Government to the European Commission Renewable Energy Electricity Production in Italy in 2020 Sources of energy Data 2008 Estimate of potential in 2020 Annual increase in Output Annual Output Annual electricity electricity production production MW TWh MW TWh MW Hydroelectric power 17, , Wind energy 3, , Biomass and biogas 1, , Geothermal energy , Solar , Ocean currents Total 23, , ,032 Source: GSE Conto Energia Roland Schuler 37

38 Future Objectives and Tasks Expansion of existing business activities in existing markets (projects, trading, services) Entry into new markets with existing business activities (Europe in the short term) Revenues 2010: 350 million EBIT 2010: 20 million Company acquisitions to complete value chain Focus on expansion abroad by current subsidiaries Revenues: 1 billion Shortterm Mediumterm Exploit of growing potential and of new market opportunities relating to Renewable Energy (e.g. infrastructure e-car, off-grid, BayWa r.e is set to become an Long- sustainable construction) important player in the field of term Renewable Energy in Europe Roland Schuler 38

39 Future Scenarios Sectors favoured by climate change subject to government regulation Climate natural dimension (+) Winners twice over (-) Automotive industry Energy industry, fossil energy Building materials, paper, metal industries Tourism Chemical industry, plastic products Textiles and apparel Financial sector Construction industry and associated sectors Agriculture and forestry Renewable Energy Regulatory-marketoriented dimension (+) Traffic industry Food industry Losers twice Industries benefiting from government over (-) measures on climate risks Source: DB Research Roland Schuler 39

40 Roland Schuler Member of the Board of Management Roland Schuler 40