PV in Germany technologies, market segments and business models

Transcription

1 PV in Germany technologies, market segments and business models Olivier Drücke, BSW Mexico City

2 Agenda 1) The German Solar Industry Association BSW 2) Solar / RE markets statistical snapshots and business climate 3) German power mix and macro-economic effects of Solar & RE 4) The German PV pioneer market still sets major innovative trends 5) Business trends for residential / industrial / commercial sectors 6) Conclusions Page 2

3 Olivier Drücke International Energy Transition Consultant Active since 28 years in the German, European and worldwide energy transition (see Linkedin) Representing the BSW at this Mexico conference Studied European Business Administration Focusing on solar energy technologies, policy, market development, strategy, sales, marketing and communication Working as corporate / municipal / governmental consultant on renewables & energy efficiency and for international development organizations Member of the board of SOLAR23 GmbH Page 3

4 German Solar Industry Association TASK VISION ACTIVITIES EXPERIENCE REPRESENTS HEADQUARTERS To represent the solar industry in Germany in the thermal and photovoltaic and storage sector A sustainable global energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years More than 800 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business from all over the world Berlin Equipment Materials System components Wholesale & Distribution Project Development Constructi on O&M BSW-Solar

5 Upstream Business in BSW-Solar (sample companies) Equipment Materials System components Wholesale & Distribution Project Development Constructi on O&M Find companies at BSW-Solar: or at Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI): BSW-Solar

6 Downstream capacities for emerging solar markets (sample companies) Equipment Materials System components Wholesale & Distribution Project Development Constructi on O&M Find companies at BSW-Solar: or at Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI):

7 BSW-Solar: Working world wide to improve frameworks for the use of solar energy! Partnerships, business networks Projects, Market reports, esp. Enabling PV both BSW-Solar

8 Solar-Business.com: Matches solar companies with requests for projects, partners around the world Only for members of partner associations Connecting serious requests for projects, partners and products BSW-Solar

9 Capacities & generation of the German RE power plant park Page 9

10 Page 10

11 The overwhelming acceptance was jeopardized by collectivisation of energy transition costs The support system is not so much based on subsidies, but rather on cost sharing by all energy consumers through an increase of electricity costs per kwh Page 11

12 Boom & bust cycle before auctions started in 2015 TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 12

13 Newly installed capacity in kwp Ground mounted PV halved in 2016 Tenders first meant a strong decline of market volumes Ground mounted PV % kwp Source: BSW-Solar, BNetzA; status 1/2017 TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 13

14 Rates of realization in % weighted average price (Cent/kWh) Pilot tenders: High realization rates expected Expected quotas: >90 percent; 1 st round more than 94 percent! 100% 90% 80% BNetzA; May 2017 & August % 8 60% 50% 7 40% 30% 6 20% 5 10% 0% 1st round 2nd round 3rd round 4th round 5th round 6th round (157 MW) (160 MW) (204 MW) (128 MW) (130 MW) (163 MW) 4 1st round (157 MW) 2nd round (160 MW) 3rd round (204 MW) 4th round (128 MW) 5th round (130 MW) 6th round (163 MW) 1st round EEG 2017 (200 MW) Source: BSW-Solar, BNetzA; 5/2017 Source: BSW-Solar, BNetzA; 5/2017 TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 14

15 The German power generation mix in 2016/ Page 15

16 Page 16

17 Renewable heat/cold still is the underdog of energy transition 31% 20% electricity heating transport 49% Final energy consumption in the EU Page 17

18 Page 18

19 jobs in Germany, 10 millions worldwide Source: IRENA, Page 19

20 Germany still leads the world in per capita installed solar power capacity TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 20

21 Germany is among the top 5 nations in Solar Thermal / No. 8 in per capita installations TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 21

22 Optimistic business climate in PV sector is back Highest index level in seven years! 160 Business climate index "Photovoltaics" Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Business climate index moving average (6Q) Measurements since Q1 2005; 2011 = 100 As of Q4/2011 BSW-Solar internal calculations, previously EuPD, Control sample: Companies from value chain stages production, commerce and installation TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 22

23 Newly installed capacity in MW 2017: Positive outlook, but government targets missed Increasing installations expected (up to +30 percent) Government targets * * Expected installation in 2017: up to MWp Source: BNetzA, BSW-Solar 5/2017 TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 23

24 Success factors & trends for the German PV Market Attractive: Self Consumption New Business Models Tenant Solar Sinking System Prices New Market Actors Real Estate Companies, Municipalities Trend towards E-Mobility Falling Prices for Solar Batteries BSW-Solar TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 24

25 PV Investments grow noticably in the segments of private homes and the commercial sector TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 25

26 Self-consumption is the most important pillar of new business models TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 26

27 Trends in the residential market: Energy autonomy and smart components New buildings: Single-family houses Highly energy efficient buildings Combination with other technologies (heat pump / solar thermal / heating) Optimized PV-systems for self consumption Storage systems become the norm Smart controls of loads via the internet and smart demand Plug-Ins for E-Mobility slowly become an integral part of the building TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 27

28 Energy autarchy in the house: 100 % coverage of heat and power with smart RE systems Heated area: 162 m², heating need 12,000 kwh/a, primary energy need 1500 kwh / a = 9 kwh/m²a, electricity need 2000 kwh / a TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 28

29 Number of installed battery storage units/ approved funding applications Share of new installed PV systems in combination with home storage systems Around 40% of new PV systems combined with batteries Declining support rate did not impact growth! Installed storage systems (per year) 50% % % % % * * 2016 preliminary Sources: KfW, BSW-Solar 0% Source: BSW-Solar based on own calculations, as of 1/2017 TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 29

30 Storage prices decline further Price index battery storage systems by technology - 10 kwh systems and 30 kwh st semester lithium storage systems (30 kwh) 2nd semester st semester nd semester n=39 1st 2nd 1st n=18 2nd semester 2015 semester 2015 semester 2016 semester Source: BSW-Solar, 4/2017 Prices for small lithium storage systems have fallen by nearly 40 percent since 2013 Large scale systems (up to 30 kwh) more than 50 percent cheaper TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 30

31 Installed Solar Battery Systems Solar Battery Market continues to grow 200, , ,000 50, * 2018* 2019* 2020* * BSW Scenario, 2016: approximately systems (preliminary) Aggregated installations Yearly installations TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 31

32 Small-scale / large storage systems can relieve the grid: A new growing market in Germany TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 32

33 Commercial customers / Industrial Parks in Germany High efficiency due to high rates of self consumption! Project Description: Shredderwerk Herbertingen Industrial Park (Germany, factory specialised in the recycling of wood and steel.); installed in July 2015; high level of selfconsumption planed Technical Details: The rooftop-mounted and grid-connected system has a capacity of kwp; in total, the plant can generate around 340,000 kwh a year Business model: Load profile: 1600 kwh on work days and less than 150 kwh on weekends > 50 % of the solar energy used directly by the facility s machinery average level of autarky of 44 % (maximum level: 70 %) self-consumption level 53 % (maximum level: 90 %) Financing: Investment: 410, year bank loan; interest rate 2.8 % expected return on invest 7.5 % TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 33

34 Energy cooperatives emerging Heidelberger Energiegenossenschaft eg: First cooperatively organized provider 7 PV installations with total capacity of 445 kwp Supply with PV electricity to 119 tenants From the energy sector the housing cooperative was supported by service providers like Bürgerwerken, Naturstrom, and Discovergy. TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 34

35 BSW wants to open the market for tenant supply An important, new, and profitable business field! MARKET POTENTIAL POLITICAL FRAME in the three-digit megawatt area annually in the mid to long-term, around 3 5 TWh is currently markedly improving: German state (Länder) support program for tenant solar energy supply implemented in, among others, Hesse, Thuringia, North Rhineland-Westphalia and in Baden-Württemberg (coalition agreement). Inclusion of delegated legislation on tenant supply act in the EEG (Renewable Energy Sources Act) in Legal initiative for support of tenant supply with solar energy at a federal level, still expected in this legislative period FURTHER INFO (among others, free guidelines) Side event at Intersolar together with the VKU :00-15:30 hours, ICM Room 11 (in German)

36 Conclusions The energy system is in full transition to renewable energies more on the electrical than the heat side Large scale plants can only be realized by tendering, though with amazing results In the post Feed-In-Tariff era, business models in Germany are mainly driven by high rates of self- consumption Those consumers with the highest energy costs are prioritary In Germany, this is the residential sector Storage, demand side management, smart energy use become increasingly important New business models try to open up new consumer segments A lot of niche applications emerge an become full fledged competitors of the conventional energy system TT.MM.JJJJ Seite 36

37 37 Thanks for your kind attention Olivier Drücke German Solar Association BSW-Solar 24/01/2013 Source: Solarmarkt