Ecological Drought Framework
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- Elwin Booker
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1 Ecological Drought Framework
2 A partnership among: NCEAS The Nature Conservancy Wildlife Conservation Society Host working groups that integrate scientists, policymakers, and field practitioners for questions at the intersection of nature conservation, economic development, and human well-being.
3 Core Team: Molly Cross Kim Hall Shawn Carter Shelley Crausbay & Aaron Ramirez NIDIS Drought Science and Planning USGS Hydrological Modeler USGS Paleo Climate/Veg Ecologist MSU Human Geographer USGS Wildlife Ecologist NDMC Drought Planning Emerson College Envi. Economist Univ AK-Pacific Environmental Economist NCEAS/NCCSC Paleo Climate/Veg Ecologist USGS Fisheries Ecologist WCS Climate Adaptation NCEAS/NWCSC Climate/Veg Ecologist USGS Freshwater Ecologist Climate Central Clim Scientist/ Communications TNC Climate Adaptation USGS Decision Science Inter-disciplinary working group: Ecologists Hydrologists Environmental Economists Human Geographers Political Scientists Science Communications CC Adaptation Drought Planners
4 Like the tree falling in the forest, does drought occur if there is no human to record or experience it? Dr. Kelly Redmond
5 Ecological Impacts of Drought Photo: redstate.com 100s of millions of $ in lost ecosystem services. Banerjee et al. 2013, Ecol. Econ. Photo: Stephanie Pappas livescience.com
6 Ecological Impacts of Drought Photo: redstate.com Meteorological Drought Agricultural Drought Hydrological Drought Socioeconomic Drought Photo: Stephanie Pappas livescience.com
7 Ecological Impacts of Drought Photo: redstate.com the ecological foundation of the world s food system is often overlooked. Avoiding Future Famines: UNEP Synthesis Report Photo: Stephanie Pappas livescience.com
8 Ecological Impacts of Drought the ecological foundation of the world s food system is often overlooked. Avoiding Future Famines: UNEP Synthesis Report Need a holistic, integrative definition of drought that connects ecological impacts to human communities. Photo: Stephanie Pappas livescience.com
9 Ecological Drought: an episodic deficit in water availability that drives ecosystems beyond thresholds of vulnerability, impacts ecosystem services, and triggers feedbacks in natural and human systems.
10 Ecological Drought: an episodic deficit in water availability that drives ecosystems beyond thresholds of vulnerability, impacts ecosystem services, and triggers feedbacks in natural and human systems.
11 Vulnerability Exposure + Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Impacts
12 Meteorological drought U.S. Drought Monitor Linares et al Exposure + Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Impacts
13 Landscape Characteristics Topography Soils Asner et al. 2015, PNAS Exposure + Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Impacts
14 Ecological Characteristics Threshold Threshold Breshears et al. 2009, Front. Ecol. Env. Photo: N.S. Cobb Exposure + Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Impacts
15 Ecological Characteristics Threshold Threshold Variation in ecological characteristics drives variation in sensitivity. Breshears et al. 2009, Front. Ecol. Env. Exposure + Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Impacts
16 Vulnerability Exposure + Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Impacts
17 Meteorological drought eorological drou Exposure + Landscape characteristics Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Ecological characteristics Impacts Ecological impacts
18 Vulnerability Nature & Humans
19 Anthropogenic Climate Change Warm-season T max ( C) Cold-season P (mm) Williams et al. 2015, Geo. Phys. Res. Lett. FDSI Year CC will continue to exacerbate drought in the 21st century. Williams et al. 2012, Nature CC Nature & Humans
20 Human land & water use Deviation from normal water level + Natural (simulated) Drought threshold Natural + human (observed) Climate-induced drought Human-induced drought Human-modified drought Time (years) Van Loon et al. 2016, Nature Geo. human modifications may reduce water availability more than climate change in some regions. Haddeland et al. 2014, PNAS Nature & Humans
21 Natural Resource Management Forest management improves drought resistance and resilience. Bottero et al. 2017, J. Appl. Ecol. Nature & Humans
22 Vulnerability Nature & Humans
23 Meteorological drought eorological drou Anthropogenic climate change Exposure + Landscape characteristics Human land & water use Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Ecological characteristics Natural resource management Impacts Ecological impacts Ecosystem service impacts Nature Humans
24 Meteorological drought eorological drou Anthropogenic climate change Ecologically available water Landscape characteristics Exposure Human land & water use Ecological characteristics Sensitivity / adaptive capacity Natural resource management Thresholds of vulnerability Ecological responses Ecological impacts Impacts Ecosystem service impacts Human responses NATURE HUMANS Crausbay & Ramirez et al. 2017, BAMS
25 Meteorological drought eorological drou Anthropogenic climate change Ecologically available water Landscape Human land characteristics & water use Exposure Need a holistic, integrative definition of drought that connects ecological impacts to human communities. Ecological characteristics Sensitivity / adaptive capacity Natural resource management Thresholds of vulnerability Ecological responses Ecological impacts Impacts Ecosystem service impacts Human responses NATURE HUMANS Crausbay & Ramirez et al. 2017, BAMS
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