State of the Market Hervé Toua1, BRC
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1 State of the Market Hervé Toua1, BRC BUSINESS RENEWABLES CENTER November 16, 2016, General Motors headquarters Detroit, Michigan
2 Today s agenda State of the Market Obstacles to Growth Our Ac1ons 2
3 Market trends Size of corporate renewable deals YTD 3
4 2016 has been behind 2015 so far GW Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 YTD Q
5 2016 has been behind 2015 so far # of Deals and Average Project Size 17 # Projects Average Project Size (MW) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 YTD Q
6 Wind and solar procurement GW 4.76 Wind Solar 17% % YTD 6
7 32 corporates have signed deals to date Buyer Capacity (MW) Google F Amazon F Microsob F Walmart F Equinix 330 IKEA 263 Owens Corning F Facebook F Apple F Dow Chemical F Mars 200 Switch 179 Kaiser Permanente 153 Procter & Gamble F Volkswagen 130 3M F Buyer Capacity (MW) General Motors F HPE F Johnson & Johnson F Digital Realty 88 US Delphi Automo1ve 80 Philips 70 Salesforce F Iron Mountain 52 Corning F BD F Lockheed Mar1n F Steelcase 25 Yahoo 23 Bloomberg 20 Cisco F SC Johnson 11 7
8 12 corporates have signed deals in 2016 We welcome six new buyers following their first deals Buyer Capacity (MW) Amazon F Google F Microsob F M F Johnson & Johnson F Digital Realty 88 Walmart F Iron Mountain 52 General Motors F Lockheed Mar1n F Steelcase 25 Salesforce F First 1me transactor 8
9 34 developers have signed deals to date Sorted by Capacity (MW) Developer / Supplier Capacity (MW) # of Deals # of Customers NextEra EDF Renewable Energy Invenergy MidAmerican Energy RES Americas Apex Clean Energy First Solar Lincoln Clean Energy Chermac Energy EDP Renewables SunEdison Iberdrola Renewables BNB Renewable Energy Bordas Wind Energy Tradewind Energy EverPower Developer / Supplier Capacity (MW) # of Deals # of Customers E.ON Capital Power Duke Energy PaFern Energy Group Mexico Power Group Pioneer Green Energy Enel Green Power Alterra Power SunPower Community Energy Origis Energy Cypress Creek Renewables Constella1on Akuo Energy Enbridge New Jersey Resources NRG Spartan Renewable Energy
10 12 developers have signed deals in 2016 We welcome seven new developers following their first deals First 1me transactor Developer / Supplier Capacity (MW) # of Deals # of Customers Lincoln Clean Energy Tradewind Energy EverPower E.ON Capital Power Invenergy Origis Energy RES Americas Duke Energy New Jersey Resources Apex Clean Energy EDF Renewable Energy
11 Contracted Capacity (MW) by ISO/UWlity ERCOT leads the ISOs/u1li1es ERCOT, SPP, PJM, and CAISO markets grew significantly in ERCOT 635 2,191 SPP 403 1,664 PJM MISO CAISO CFE NV Energy Duke Energy Alabama Power
12 Texas is the leading state Texas, Oklahoma and California markets grew significantly in Contracted Capacity (MW) by State Top 10 States Texas Oklahoma Iowa 662 California 451 Kansas North Carolina Ohio Illinois 273 Nevada 249 Alabama
13 Ver1cal integra1on is s1ll a challenge 2014 US GDP vs Electricity Produc1on vs Deals GDP 100% = $17.2 Trillion Electricity ProducWon 100% = 4,093 TWh 2016 Deals Signed 100% = 1.36GW Ver1cally Integrated U1lity 32% 41% 5% Open Wholesale Market 68% 59% 95% 13
14 Today s agenda State of the Market Obstacles to Growth Our Ac1ons 14
15 Ques1on What effect will the US elecwon results have on your agenda or prioriwes? More engagement in the US A B C D More engagement interna1onally Less engagement overall No change 15
16 Survey Results What effect will the US elecwon results have on your agenda or prioriwes? 16
17 Corporate intent Fortune 500 Companies with Sustainability Targets (GHG, RE or EE) Fortune % Fortune % 223 (45%) of Fortune 500 with sustainability goals Fortune % Source: Power Forward 2.0 WWF, Ceres, Calvert, DGA; RMI Analysis 17
18 100% renewable momentum (1/2) November 2015 Today Long-Term 18
19 100% renewables momentum (2/2) November 2016 Today Long-Term 19
20 A lot of untapped demand % of companies having signed PPAs Signed Deals Haven't Signed Deals Fortune % Fortune % Mostly F100 have taken ac1on Fortune % Source: Power Forward 2.0 WWF, Ceres, Calvert, DGA; RMI Analysis 20
21 #1 Low gas prices an opportunity? (1/2) Is it really that bad a 1me for a buyer to sign a PPA? Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices Historical and Futures 16 Avg Henry Hub spot Henry Hub Futures Est. marginal cost Break-even range Price ($/MMbtu) Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Jan 20 Jan 25 Source: EIA, Thomson Reuters, CME Group, Forbes 21
22 #1 Low gas prices an opportunity? (2/2) Henry Hub, $/MMBtu Average EIA Goldman Sachs Deutsche Bank Energy Ventures Analysis Source: U1lity Dive, Nov 7, forecast Black & Veatch forecast 22
23 US genera1on capacity is aging GW of installed conven1onal genera1on capacity GW US ISO/RTO fossil & nuclear capacity outlook Nuclear Gas Coal 50% of gas, coal, and nuclear capacity will reach expected rewrement age by Opera1ng Capacity Announced Re1rements ( ) Nuclear Gas Coal 2030 Remaining 45 y y 54 y Capacity AddiWonal age-based rewrements Source: RMI analysis. Opera1ng capacity from EIA 860 (2015); announced coal & gas re1rements from EIA, addi1onal re1rements es1mated to occur at historical average ages by unit type. Nuclear re1rements from SNL. 23
24 We expect transac1ons in 2017 BRC member survey July 2016 total of 32 companies Defining the approach 14 Currently AcWve In the process of execu1ng a deal 7 Not Currently AcWve Plan to do transac1ons in the future Do not plan to do transac1ons in the future 1 10 Note: Percentages based upon 32 company respondents to BRC poll. 24
25 #2 Learning from past years/transac1ons How do I avoid signing a PPA that is not bankable? How do I avoid taking too many risks on my side the contract? Am I aware of the main problems other buyers face? How can I overcome them ( unknown unknowns )? 25
26 #3 Par1cipa1ng in an aggregated deal A uwlity its tradi1onal role in the electricity market A syndicate of buyers one taking the lead to nego1ate A supplier (e.g., data center) on behalf of its customers A market maker bank, trader in organized wholesale markets A developer aggrega1ng demand for one wind/solar farm A customer (e.g., retailer) on behalf of its suppliers Wind and solar need scale (e.g., 100 MW+) Many businesses need 5-10 MW Aggrega1on is a necessity to bridge the gap 26
27 #4 Interna1onaliza1on 195 UN registered countries 27
28 Ques1on What is the main factor that prevents you from making progress? Understanding gas/electricity prices Learning from past years/transac1ons Par1cipa1ng in an aggregated deal 4 Interna1onaliza1on 28
29 Survey Results What is the main factor that prevents you from making progress? 29
30 Today s agenda State of the Market Obstacles to Growth Our AcWons 30
31 Building awareness Expanding the market Google news (results) Google results (hits) Media menwons* BRC 279 4,220 1,063 REBA 149 2, Amory 2, ,
32 Building a community (1/2) Membership con1nues to grow across all organiza1ons Buyers Principles BSR / FoIP RE-100 BRC Nov 2015 Nov
33 Building a community (2/2) BRC membership BRC members Buyer Developer Service Provider Nov 2014 May 11, 2015 Nov 17, 2015 May 19, 2016 Nov 16,
34 Building a porxolio of products (1/2) Primers, case studies, market place, boot camps, state-specific task forces February
35 Building a porxolio of products (1/2) Products that build themselves The first Project request by a Fortune 500 Company. Requested projects seeking 45 MW Mexico 20 MW Southeast Asia I have received many responses to the requests posted in the Marketplace. I am very op1mis1c that the Marketplace will improve the speed at which we connect with suppliers. Project requester 35
36 Hervé TouaW hfp:// Thank you BUSINESS RENEWABLES CENTER
37 BUSINESS RENEWABLES CENTER 2016 CONFERENCE
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