Update on Renewables & System Integration. Paolo Frankl, Renewable Energy Division 10 October 2017, Lisbon

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1 Update on Renewables & System Integration Paolo Frankl, Renewable Energy Division 10 October 2017, Lisbon

RED- changing work framework Core Analysis MTRMR

System Integration Key Publications Contributions

studies Participation in Specific Projects Training

and Initiatives G7/G20 IRENA REN21 SE4ALL CEM

India Morocco Singapore Accession countries Mexico

2 RED- changing work framework Core Analysis MTRMR Policy Analysis Technology Status and Prospects System Integration Key Publications Contributions to Strategic IEA Outputs WEO ETP IDR s ESAP Costing studies Participation in Specific Projects Training Country/Region Studies International Institutions and Initiatives G7/G20 IRENA REN21 SE4ALL CEM Others + + Association China Indonesia Thailand India Morocco Singapore Accession countries Mexico Chile Other countries Brazil South Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Central Asia

3 Renewable Policy Analysis Joint RE Policy Database with IRENA Input to In-Depth Reviews (IDR) of Country Energy Policies Assessment of effectiveness and cost-efficiency RE Heat Policy Aligning RE and EE policies

4 Advanced biofuel growth rates well below required levels Acceleration will require specific policy support for advanced biofuel technologies

5 Renewable power substituting fossil fuels in end-uses Buildings Heating Cooking Lighting Power plants Industry Steam Force Electrolysis Transports EVs H-rich fuels Feedstock, process agents, fuel Beyond current uses, renewable electricity can substitute fossil fuels in direct uses in buildings, industry and transports, directly or through electrochemistry/electrolysis

IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance Over 10 years

Renewables (GIVAR) Programme - Use of proprietary and external

Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and

2016 - Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy 2011 2014 2016

6 IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance Over 10 years of grid integration work at the IEA - Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) Programme - Use of proprietary and external modelling tools for techno-economic grid integration assessment - Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and GIVAR Advisory Group - Dedicated Unit on System Integration since June Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy Technical Framework, Technology, Economics Policy Implementation Progress & Tracking

7 IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis since 2014 Workshops and dissemination events Regional Latin America training (2014/15/16); New Delhi/Bangalore (2015); Bali Clean energy Forum (2015/17); Beijing (2016/17); Astana (2016); Johannesburg (2016); New Delhi (2017); Mexico City (2017). Thailand Grid Integration assessment Since 2014, IEA System Integration analysis covered over 20 countries in the five continents. Association and partner countries have been systematically prioritized.

Different Phases of VRE Integration Towards Sector Coupling Phase Description Country Examples 1 VRE capacity is not relevant at the all-system level Most countries, incl.

8 Different Phases of VRE Integration Towards Sector Coupling Phase Description Country Examples 1 VRE capacity is not relevant at the all-system level Most countries, incl. Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa 2 VRE capacity becomes noticeable to the system operator Brazil, China, India, Sweden, Texas 3 Flexibility becomes relevant with greater swings in the supply/demand balance 4 Stability becomes relevant. VRE capacity covers nearly 100% of demand at certain times 5 Structural surpluses emerge; electrification of other sectors becomes relevant 6 Bridging seasonal deficit periods and supplying nonelectricity applications; seasonal storage & synthetic fuels Italy, Germany, Portugal, Spain, UK Ireland, South Australia, Denmark Electricity only accounts for around one fifth of total final energy demand today. The next rise in renewables will require multiplying their uses in buildings, industry and transport

9 The phases of System Integration CL BR AU UK IT GR DE ES SE CAISO IE PT DK Phase 4 - Shortterm stability Phase 3 - Flexibility is key IN CN ID ZA NZ ATERCOT Phase 2 - Better operations PJM MX Phase 1 - No relevant impact 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Notes: AT = Austria; AU = Australia; BR = Brazil; CL = Chile; CN = China; DE = Germany; DK = Denmark; ES = Spain; GR = Greece; ID = Indonesia; IE = Ireland; IN = India; IT = Italy; MX = Mexico; NZ = New Zealand; PT = Portugal; SE = Sweden; UK = the United Kingdom; ZA = South Africa. PJM, CAISO and ERCOT are US energy markets. Source: Adapted from IEA (2016a), Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report Power systems can be defined by the dimensions of the challenge to integrate VRE

Level of VRE penetration Phases 3 & 4: System transformation System-friendly

market framework Flexible resources planning & investments Generation time

Integrated planning Actions targeting VRE System and market operation Actions

10 Level of VRE penetration Phases 3 & 4: System transformation System-friendly VRE deployment Distributed resources integration System services Policy and market framework Flexible resources planning & investments Generation time profile Technology mix Location Grids Generation Storage Demand shaping Integrated planning Actions targeting VRE System and market operation Actions targeting overall system Integrating large shares of VRE requires system transformation

Recent publication: Status of Power System Transformation 2017 Overview of trends and developments in the power sector - System Integration of Renewables - Future of local grids Provides over two

11 Recent publication: Status of Power System Transformation 2017 Overview of trends and developments in the power sector - System Integration of Renewables - Future of local grids Provides over two dozens of best practice examples for integrating wind and solar power Introduces a framework for assessing power system transformation, applied to case studies - Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, Australia

System Integration of renewables Focus on electrification

System Integration of renewables Focus on electrification Simon Müller Head - System Integration of Renewables Unit IEA Wind Europe, Brussels, 21 March 2018 IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis