Technology as a basis for the transformation of the energy system

Transcription

1 BDI/WEC workshop on ETP 2014 Technology as a basis for the transformation of the energy system Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, RWE AG Berlin, May 22nd, 2014 RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 1

2 RWE engages in R&D-projects along the entire value chain with a focus on implementation and system integration Project examples Upstream Generation Transport/ Storage Energy Efficiency/ Applications Gas/Oil > Reservoir characterisation > New drilling technique > Gas hydrates Coal-based > Plant flexibility > CCS/CCU > Lignite drying > Coal quality Electricity grids > Smart grids > Super conductivity > Coating of steel poles Residential households > Smart Metering > Smart Home > Energymanagement > Micro-CHP Mining > Automation & Logistics > Diagnosis conveyor-belt systems > Groundwater modelling Renewable > Wind Off-/Onshore > Biomass/Biogas > Marine energy > Solar energy Electricity storage > Compressed-air storage > Heat storage > Stationary Batteries Transport > Charging infrastructure for E-Mobility > Usage of car batteries as electricity storage Nuclear > Safety > Maint. of know-how > Dismantling Gas grids/reservoirs > Pipeline integrity monitoring Industry/commerce > Distributed electricity and heat supplies > Gas sensors Comprehensive technology and system analysis RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 2

3 The challenges to achieve a CO 2 -reduction of 80% down to 2 tons per capita are enormous Annual CO 2 emissions of a medium-sized passenger car 1 Automobiles 2 t CO 2 /a 2 t CO 2 /Passagier Air travel or Heat Products Heating of a single-family home with four people 3 2 t CO 2 /a/person 2 t CO 2 Return flight Frankfurt Los Angeles 2 Production of goods worth approx. 4,000 4 With today's energy supply: Exploitation of 2 tons limit by each measure 1) EU-Norm passenger car from 2012, km/a à 140 g CO 2 /km 2) km (one-way), 4 l Kerosin/100 km per passenger in Jumbo, km à 4 l/100 km = 750 l à 2,63 kg CO 2 /l 3) l fuel oil/a = kwh à 0,27 kg CO 2 /kwh amount to 8 t CO 2 /a 4) At ½ ton CO 2 per investment (net) a theoretical basket value of results; e.g. TV, bicycle, sports equipment and clothes each 500, food RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 3

4 A low carbon energy supply is feasible, if three levers are applied simultaneously Generation Infrastructure Demand High efficiency 1 Low-CO 2 electricity mix 2 More electricity 3 Source: RWE Zukunftsstudie, 2009 RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 4

5 Two theoretical paths towards a low-co 2 electricity system to be achieved by 2050 (example: EU) Main elements Indicated preference 1 Short bridge > Quick and massive expansion of renewables > No construction of conventional or nuclear power plants > Massive development of grid infrastructure and, if necessary, storage facilities Long bridge > Continuous expansion of renewables > At least one more round of conventional and nuclear power plant new-build > Use of carbon capture & storage > Gradual adaptation of infrastructure in line with change in generation Photo: Wikipedia.org/Sandö Bridge *CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 5

6 R&D focus areas can be deducted from the planned transformation path (example: Germany) Energiewende concept (electricity sector) Reduction of spec. power demand, but at the same time: Electricity as efficient and clean fuel (e-cars, heat pumps) % European Supergrid HVDC* Desertec Demand reduction 25% Technical optimisation Import 20% (esp. cost reduction) Integration (Smart grid expansion, 58% flexible back-up, storage, DSM* etc.) Renewables 45% 25% Nuclear Dismantling CO 2 reduction (efficiency, CCS/CCU*) Flexibility increase Conventional power plants 10% System analyses at all levels local, national, European, (global) technical, economic, regulatory aspects *: HVDC: High Voltage Direct Current grids, DSM: Demand Side Management; CCS/CCU: CO 2 Capture and Storage/Usage Source: EWI/Prognos/GWS Studie RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 6

7 View on important ETP 2014 findings (1/2) > ETP presents an encompassing and highly valuable work with a global as well as clear system perspective and many important findings: Congratulation! > Importance of system analysis cannot be overemphasized regarding the intricate interplay of technology, economy, regulation and society. Future market design needs to take these interdepencies into account (presently often not the case!) > In light of fast technological developments, long-term goals, size of the challenge and complexity of the energy system, a non-dogmatic, supra-national and technology-open approach is of utmost importance > Key levers for a cost-efficient and sustainable future energy system are efficiency, decarbonisation of the power sector and a shift towards electricity in all sectors o o o A cap and trade system such as the ETS ensures already today that electrification of e.g. mobility or heating does not lead to higher emissions. With pressure on CO 2 -emissions, we will see again more coal-to-gas shift in conventional generation. But, as ETP points out rightfully, also gas is a bridge. Word of caution: the realistic economic potential of efficiency might be lower than postulated in many studies so we should not rely on it and take rebound effects into account RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 7

8 View on important ETP 2014 findings (2/2) > On RES: cost will come down further and competetiveness with conventional plants in sight in many regions of the world, but LCOE and real cost (including risk-adjusted cost of capital) differ largely. Financing is a key issue. > On RES-integration: > Combination of (smart) grid expansion and flexible back-up power plants is most cost-efficient, but requires acceptance! > Storage is not the golden bullet (yet): RWE research also shows that significant additional central storage will only be needed beyond RES shares of 50%. Intense and diverse R&D is needed to develop options and bring down cost. Battery developments with potential to be game-changing. > On CCS: from a global perspective it looks indispensable, but the more concrete/local you go, the higher the hurdles. We cannot count on it. > On Smart Grid: the more volatile and the more decentral generation becomes, the more smartness we need. There are before the meter and beyond the meter measures (e.g DSM, smart charging ), which need effective coordination (especially in unbundled markets) RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 8

9 BACK-UP RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 9

10 Spec. PEC PEC GDP BACK-UP Efficiency gains have prev. been offset by economic growth and increasing convenience requirements Gross Domestic Product vs. Primary Energy Consumption [GER; ] 140 PEC GDP Spec. PEC % +1,4% p.a % -0,15% p.a % -1,5% p.a. Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Working Group on Energy Balances RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 10

11 BACK-UP There are four principle ways to cope with increasing shares of volatile RES generation Power generation Power consumption 230 V 50 Hz Potential solutions/measures Flexible power generation 1 2 Expansion of electricity grids Smart Technologies 3 4 Energy storage RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 11

12 Recent RWE-research shows that significant add. central storage will only be required with RES-share above 50% With the Energiewende increasing share of RES power generation BACK-UP 20 to 25% 35 to 40% 50 to 60% 75% to 100% New pumped hydro Compressed air Power-2-Gas Today Relevance of new storage RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 12

13 Combination of flexible generation and grid expansion is the most cost-effective way BACK-UP Times of surplus energy > 10 GW 5 10 GW 1 5 GW < 1 GW new Times w/o sun and wind Demand in GW With Supergrid EU 150 w/o Supergrid ~ 400 Conv. capacity today 400 Requirement Advantage Challenge Doubling of grid capacity needed (2030) > Cost-effective: Full European grid <10% of capex in generation > Increased secure RES generation due to interconnection > Public acceptance > Complex and long permission and approval processes Realization highly challenging Flexible operation of generation fleet > Back-up capacity is more cost-effective than storage or DSM 1 > Existing power plants partly capable for more flexibility > Very low utilisation of back-up plants, ( new market models required) > Acceptance of conv. Plants (old and new built) 1 DSM: Demand Side Management Source: ECF Scenarios RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 13

14 Promising future concepts, such as Desertec, build on grid interconnection to optimally make use of the RES potentials across EUMENA 1 BACK-UP 1 Europe, Middle East, North Africa RWE AG, Dr. Frank-Detlef Drake, SEITE 14