TODAY S PRESENTATION

Transcription

1 TODAY S PRESENTATION Update on the County of Monterey s Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin Investigation and Presentation of the Historical Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM-2014) and Current, Future, and Potential Applications of the County s SVIHM Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

2 Financial Impact None from receiving this presentation. Funding for this project is described in detail in today s Board Report which Identifies Multiple Funding Sources Estimates Anticipated Future Costs to Complete Project July 11, 2017 Page 2 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

3 Discussion Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin Investigation (Basin Investigation) Five-year comprehensive water resources assessment of Zone 2C of the Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin Assess the general health of the Basin with regards to its ability to provide a sustainable supply of water for land use activities projected to the year(s) 2030/2045 July 11, 2017 Page 3 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

4 Discussion (cont.) Objectives: Evaluate existing Sea Water Intrusion (SWI) and groundwater levels throughout the five year study period ( ) Evaluate water demand for existing and future uses projected to the year(s) 2030/2045 through the development of an integrated groundwater/surface water model Evaluate and provide conclusions regarding future trends and expected changes in groundwater elevations and SWI Review potential climate change impacts and incorporate climate change model data into the integrated groundwater/surface water model July 11, 2017 Page 4 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

5 Discussion Milestones: July 2014: County begins Basin Investigation study contracting Brown and Caldwell; with managerial and technical assistance from Agency January 2015: State of the Salinas River Groundwater Basin Brown and Caldwell May 12, 2015: Technical Advisory Committee representing Stakeholders is formed and begins meeting on a monthly basis as necessary Most recently, TAC met on March 14, 2017 to receive update on approach to deriving land use data and to receive a summary of initial model calibration results July 11, 2017 Page 5 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

6 Discussion Milestones (cont.): December 16, 2015: First Stakeholder outreach meeting held in Salinas. Announced that model development would transition from consultant to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) June 7, 2016: Project Team reaches out to a group of approximately 16 Salinas Valley agricultural experts and advisors (academic, government, agricultural associations, private sector) July 12, 13 and 14, 2016: Stakeholder outreach meetings in Salinas, Soledad and King City July 11, 2017 Page 6 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

7 Milestones (cont.): Discussion (cont.) April 13, 2017: Workshop between Monterey County Water Resources Agency and USGS to begin development of an Operational version of the SVIHM to support to the Agency s Interlake Tunnel and San Antonio Spillway Modification Project Looking ahead July 11, 2017 Page 7 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

8 Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin Investigation Timeline 2017 Spring / Summer Present Preliminary SVIHM-2014 Historical Model Economic Analysis for 2030 / 2045 Land Use Forecast Fall / Winter Stakeholder Outreach Begin 2015/16 Model Update 2018 Present Preliminary SVIHM-2015/16 Historical Model Begin 2030/2045 Future Trends Analysis Stakeholder Outreach Continue 2017/2018 Model Update Receive Operational Model from MCWRA Begin 2017 Model Update 2019 July 11, 2017 Page 8 Complete 2017/2018 Model Updates and Future Trend Analysis Present Preliminary SVIHM-2017/2018 Historical Model Stakeholder Outreach Final Presentation and Report Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

9 Discussion (cont.) Current, Future, and Potential Applications of the SVIHM Completion of Basin Investigation requires an operational version of SVIHM to evaluate future trends Operational model will be developed by the USGS for the Water Resources Agency s Interlake Tunnel and San Antonio Spillway Modification Project Operational model will be made available to Monterey County s Basin Investigation July 11, 2017 Page 9 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

10 Discussion (cont.) Current, Future, and Potential Applications of the SVIHM Operational model will also be made available to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for WaterSMART Basins Study WaterSMART Basins Study will provide climate change analysis data to Basin Investigation Climate change data will be applied to Basin Investigation future trends analysis July 11, 2017 Page 10 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

11 Discussion (cont.) Current, Future, and Potential Applications of the SVIHM Potential application of the SVIHM to the Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Development of Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) Assessment of GSP Implementation July 11, 2017 Page 11 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

12 Integrated Applications of the SVIHM Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin Investigation Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency MCWRA Interlake Tunnel Project U.S. Bureau of Reclamation WaterSMART Basins Study SVIHM-14 Historical Model Potential Application of SVIHM-2014Base Operational Model Develop SVIHM- 2014Base Operational Model SVIHM- 2014Base Operational Model SVIHM Annual Model Updates and Presentations SVIHM- 2014Base Operational Model Climate Change Analysis Interlake Tunnel Project and Alternatives Modeling Analysis Climate Change Analysis to Year 2100 Final Report with Future Trends Analysis July 11, 2017 Page Future Trends Analysis Using SVIHM2014- Base Potential Application of Future Trends Analysis to GSP Interlake Tunnel Project Continues on Separate Timeline Basins Study Continues on Separate Timeline Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

13 SVIHM Model Development Team USGS USGS California Water Science Center Randall Hanson Wesley Henson, PhD Joe Hevesi Scott Boyce, PhD Lorrie Flint, PhD Alan Flint, PhD USGS New Mexico Water Science Center Andre Ritchie Amy Galanter USGS Geologic Division, Denver, CO Don Sweetkind Emily Taylor Monterey County Resource Management Agency Carl Holm, AICP County Counsel Leslie Girard Monterey County Water Resources Agency Howard Franklin, PG Amy Woodrow, PG Peter Kwiek, PG Tamara Voss, MS Germán Criollo, PE Jason Demers United States Bureau of Reclamation Ian Ferguson Facilitation and Outreach Consultants Martin Feeney, PG, CHG Matt Zidar July 11, 2017 Page 13 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

14 Technical Advisory Committee Eight meetings from May 2015 to March 2017 Representatives from these organizations participated: Seaside Basin Watermaster The Open Monterey Project July 11, 2017 Page 14 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

15 Agricultural Experts Jocelyn Bridson Ben Burgoa Michael Cahn, PhD John Hunt Pam Krone-Davis Karen Lowell Bob Martin Christina McGinnis Kay Mercer Eric Morgan Kimberly Null, PhD Emily Paddock Nikki Rodoni Kirk Schmidt Abby Taylor-Silva Joel Wiley Rio Farms Resource Conservation District of Monterey County UC Cooperative Extension UC Davis Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary USDA-NRCS Rio Farms Monterey County Agricultural Commissioner s Office Kay Mercer, Inc. Braga Fresh Moss Landing Marine Laboratories Driscoll s Measure to Improve, LLC Central Coast Water Quality Preservation, Inc. Grower s Shippers Association Wilbur-Ellis July 11, 2017 Page 15 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

16 Salinas Valley Watershed Model (WM) & Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) MCWRA Board of Directors & Board of Supervisors Meeting Salinas, CA Tuesday, July 11, 2017 Randall Hanson, Wes Henson, Joe Hevesi, Scott Boyce,, Lorrie Flint, Alan Flint USGS California Water Science Center Andre Ritchie, Amy Galanter, USGS New Mexico Water Science Center Don Sweetkind & Emily Taylor USGS Geologic Division, Denver CO Howard Franklin, Amy Woodrow MCWRA

17 Salinas Valley Conjunctive-Use Water Management Issues Agricultural/Urban Development Increases Demand Urban growth Increase in water-intensive crops and crop rotation Saline-irrigation practices Climate Variability/Change Reduces supply Creates tradeoffs between competing interests flood control municipal and agricultural use environmental flows (e.g. Fish Passage) and habitat

18 Salinas Valley hydrologic decision models will help assess complex conjunctive use issues Assess and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies to prevent Reduced surface-water deliveries Streamflow depletion Seawater intrusion Saline-irrigation practices Potential habitat degradation Mitigation Strategies Reuse & recycled water Optimize dual-reservoir operation flood control water use enhanced dry-season releases

19 Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) is derived from five models Hydrogeologic Framework Model BCM Climate Model HSPF Watershed Model (WM) Land Use Model MODFLOW- OWHM SVIHM This approach advances the science behind the SVIHM and enhances the extensibility of the SVIHM for decision making 19

20 Linkage between precip-runoff (BCM), watershed model (WM) and integrated model (SVIHM) WM & SVIHM Inputs SURGO Mo County LIDAR/DEM BCM Precip BCM ET pot Soils Geology Topo WM (HSPF) Inputs NLCD NHD HSPF WM Outputs/ SVIHM Inputs Salinas Streamflow Ungaged Inflows Reservoir Releases Gaged Inflows MF- OWHM Prescribed SVIHM Inputs Land Use Ocean tide levels Historical Diversions Geologic Framework. Both Prescribed and Calculated Inputs Pumping Diversions 20

21 Decision Support System (DSS) & LINKAGE BETWEEN Models Supply-Constrained/Demand-Based Hydrologic Model System Climate Data PRISM & Local Data Inflows/Outflows Gaged Streamflow MnI Pumpage GEMS Data Data Streams Land Use Permanent: Native (NLCD) & Urban Permanent & Seasonal Agriculture (Land Use Maps) Rotational Agriculture (CALPIP & Ranch Maps) Run Basin Characteristic Model(BCM) All Salinas Valley Watersheds Daily/Monthly Precip, ETo Farm Process (FMP) Input (Monthly Precipitation & Reference ET) Resampled Valley-Wide onto SVIHM (MF-OWHM) Grid Simulate Agricultural Supply & Demand Run Salinas Valley Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) (MF-OWHM v2) Run HSPF Watershed Model (WM) All Salinas Valley Watersheds Estimate Mountain Runoff/Recharge to Rivers & Reservoirs Build Stream Routing/Deliveries 144 River Inflows, 3 Diversions, 1 Nonrouted deliveries CSIP DSS Analyze Flows Groundwater, Surface-water, & Landscape Budgets DSS Analyze Levels Groundwater Levels, Streamflow, & Ag Pumpage DSS Analyze Supply/Demand Food/Water Security, Drought/Wet Response & Adaptation

22 BCM - WM - SVIHM model integration: time steps and simulation periods BCM daily simulation, water years 1948 through 2015 WM hourly simulation, water years 1948 through 2015 (water year 1948 used only for model spin up) BCM and WM simulation period: 10/1/1947 9/30/2015 (daily & hourly time step) SVIHM simulation period: 10/1/ /31/2014 (monthly stress period, biweekly time step)

23 Hydrogeologic framework model 23

24 Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) Model Layering 9 Layers 1 Salinas Shallow/Recent Aquifer 2 Salinas Valley Aquitard Ft Aquifer 4 Middle Aquitard Ft Aquifer 6 Deep Aquitard 7 Paso Robles Formation Aquifer 8 Purisima/Santa Margarita Aquifer 9 Composite Bedrock Aquifer Diagrammatic Cross Section of SVIHM Model Layers for SVIHM

25 SVIHM - Uppermost Layers Alluvium 180-ft Aquifer 400-ft Aquifer Paso Robles Purisima/Santa Margarita Fm. Bedrock Units (Monterey Sh., Granites, etc)

26 Rainfall Runoff and Watershed Model (WM) 26

27 WM model layout and segmentation 576 segments Total area = 4,517 mi 2 Average area = 7.9 mi 2 Maximum area = 39.6 mi 2 Minimum area = 0.4 mi pervious land units (PERLNDS) 50 impervious land units (IMPLNDS) 574 stream reaches (RCHRES) 10 sub-models (sub-drainages) 10 surface water outflows

28 MCWRA estimated daily inflows to Nacimiento Reservoir (RCHRES 539) Used for historical & projections monthly streamflow ( ) Preliminary Preliminary daily streamflow ( ) Preliminary Preliminary daily streamflow ( ) monthly streamflow ( )

29 Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) 29

30 Model Water Balance Accounting and Land Use Overview Water balance accounting regions provide water supply-and-demand budgets for subareas. Land use and climate are applied to each model grid cell (10-acre cells) Land use drives simulated agricultural water demand in each region (Biweekly time steps & Monthly time periods) Brown and Caldwell 30

31 30 SVIHM WaterBalance Accounting Units Aggregate Water Budgets Seaside Basin Included Coastal and Inland Urban areas grouped Zone 2C regions subdivided Additional regions added outside of Zone 2C Offshore region completed based on Geologic Framework Model Selected regions best link supply with demand

32 Zone 2C Subareas in relation to WBS regions Plus Seaside Basin and regions external to Zone 2C Subareas Fix Blanco Drain Color

33 Land Use Model 33

34 Land use representation is more detailed in the SVIHM 2012 SVIGSM Land Use

35 Crop trends in time show large interannual changes in cropped acreage Interannual changes and multicrop rotations not captured well in in available land use maps Available Land Use Data Sets are multi-year composites of snapshots The land use modeling approach for SVIHM was developed to account for high frequency crops that change acreage from season to season.

36 Land Use Analysis Includes Available Data Widely available Land Use and Land Cover data California Department of Water Resources Limited information from Agricultural Commissioners Ranch Maps Stakeholder outreach activities Agricultural experts These provide very coarse spatial and temporal resolution

37 Land uses were grouped by frequency of rotation or change High Frequency (e.g. Lettuce, Spinach) Annual Frequency (e.g. Artichokes, Strawberries) Multi-year, permanent, or relatively stable land uses (e.g. Vineyards, Orchards, Native, Urban) High uncertainty in high frequency crop distribution and changes in space and time. High frequency crops distributions were estimated using newly developed methods

38 A method was developed to take advantage of the California Pesticide Information Portal (CalPIP) CalPIP data provides information about crop acreage and crop rotations and was used to fill in for more generic categories in available land use datasets (e.g. truck crops) Goal Represent Rotational Crops in Land Use Thematically represent the distribution within each WBS and NOT exactly represent the Land Use in each Parcels/Blocks Agricultural land use in yellow area is estimated using CalPIP.

39 Land use representation is more detailed in the SVIHM 2012 SVIGSM Land Use SVIHM Land Use Example (2001)

40 New approach led to better representation of land use. Model would benefit from more detail: Crops by parcels/blocks (not by subregion) Spatial variation in planting and harvest dates High frequency crop rotations Irrigation methods

41 Preliminary Calibration Results Historical Matching so that model replicates the past so that it can mimic the future or alternatives 70 Calibration Parameter Groups: 17 groups Aquifer Properties 22 groups of River-bed properties 4 groups of Coastal Inflow properties 6 groups of Groundwater underflow properties Initial head properties drain conductance properties 6 groups of fault characteristics 6 groups of multi-aquifer well properties 6 groups of crop properties Runoff properties 63,228 Observations: 51,431Heads, 1,739 Head Differences, 6,428 monthly Streamflow & gain/loss, & 3,630 monthly Pumpage 41

42 Groundwater-Level Contours Fall 2013 for 180 Aquifer and 400 Aquifer Preliminary Preliminary

43 East Side Preliminary Preliminary Pressure NE Preliminary Preliminary

44 Salinas River at Spreckles Preliminary Preliminary Salinas River at Chular Preliminary Salinas River at Soledad Preliminary Salinas River near Bradley Preliminary

45 ~2400 Wells Used for Simulating Agricultural pumpage & MnI Supply GEMS 2,005 wells USGS-NWIS 193 wells DWR 200 wells Pumping from each well is Aggregated to water balance subregions Scaled to the well and pump capacity Bigger wells extract more of the water as expected in reality

46 Agricultural Groundwater Pumpage Comparisons with GEMS (Preliminary) East Side Increased Irrigation Efficiencies Preliminary Forebay Preliminary Preliminary Pumpage (Acre-Ft/month): Mean Error 345 Ac-ft/month, RMSE 1,279 Ac-Ft/month, 0.3% of Average total Agricultural Reported Pumpage, and 94% within 1,000 AC-ft/month

47 Summary Preliminary Water Budgets Total Farm Delivery Requirement for Salinas Valley, CA Agricultural delivery required for irrigation Preliminary

48 Summary Preliminary Water Budgets for the Jurisdictional subregion Zone 2C within the Salinas Valley

49 Average Groundwater-Flow budget per year Landward Zone-2C for and for (2014) MnI Pumpage 41,700 (51,300) Ag Pumpage 311,800 (322,900) Tile-Drain Outflow 180 (0) Net Recharge (areal (DI), streams (SI)) 324,950 (194,360) ET from Groundwater 11,530 (7,940) Outflow to Bay (OB) at Coast 0 (0) Storage loss to GW Flow 13,270 (103,480) Inflow to Aquifers from offshore (SWI) at coast 1,640 (2,340) Landward Groundwater Underflow (LU) from Northern and Southern Boundaries 9,600 (11,790) Aquifer Flow In-Out = Storage Depletion + SWI

50 Model Results Water Balance WET DRY July 11, 2017 Page 50 Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency

51 CONJUNCTIVE-USE ANALYSIS in the Salinas Valley and across Monterey Bay with One Water (MF-OWHM) Thanks for your attention.

52 TODAY S ACTION Receive a report on an Update of the County of Monterey s Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin Investigation and Presentation of the Historical Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM-2014) and Current, Future, and Potential Applications of the County s SVIHM Special Joint Meeting of the Board of Supervisors, Board of Supervisors of the Water Resources Agency and the Board of Directors of the Water Resources Agency