Reducing the Uncertainty in Groundwater Availability and its Sensitivity to Land-use and Climate Variability
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1 Reducing the Uncertainty in Groundwater Availability and its Sensitivity to Land-use and Climate Variability Edwin Cey and GRIP* Team, Dept. of Geoscience *GRIP (Groundwater Recharge in the Prairies) Water Innovation Program Forum May 23 24, 218
2 Masaki Hayashi Larry Bentley Shawn Marshall Kabir Rasouli Amro Negm Yue Liu Laura Morgan Alexandra Hughes Polina Abdrakhimova Aaron Mohammed Amir Niazi, Alanna Felske, Freda LeBlanc, Evan Sieben, Eric Mott, Paul Fontaine, Kristyn Juergensen, and more Igor Pavlovskii Brandon Hill
3 Research Partners Christensen, Perry, Stauffer, and Wooliams families
4 Groundwater Flow Systems Precip Understanding recharge Evaluate spatial and temporal variability Surface and subsurface complexity Recharge ET 1 m Mudstone Discharge Sandstone GW Storage Glacial Sed. Discharge Discharge Valley Creek 1-1 km
5 Study Sites Edmonton Stauffer Spy Hill Calgary Triple G** 2 existing sites 1 expanded site** 3 new sites Ft. McLeod Perry LDF
6 Field Monitoring Eddy flux tower Runoff trap Instrumented soil pits Glacial till Boreholes & Wells Bedrock
7 Challenges and Progress Areas 1. Land Use Effects Irrigated vs Dryland Cropland vs Grassland 2. Snowmelt & Frozen Soils Jan 21 Jan Model Development 25 m 4. Potential Climate Change Impacts
8 LDF 9 Perry 5 m Upland Depression Depression Depr. Flatlands 6 m 1 Legend Irrigated Monitoring Station Dryland Monitoring Station Irrigated Borehole only Dryland Borehole only Upland
9 Depth (mbgs) Chloride Mass Balance P C P = R C R LDF Cl (mg/l) F4 PW F8 PW F1 PW F4 GW F8 GW F1 GW Depth (mbgs) Irrig Dep Topographic position (upland/depression) Irrig Up 14 Dry Dep trumps water inputs (irrigation/dryland) Dry Up where topography 16 exists Perry 2 Field Recharge (mm/yr) 4 F4 42 F8 23 F Field Recharge (mm/yr) Irr Dep 25 Irr Up 5 Dry Dep 37 Dry Up 2 Cl (mg/l)
10 Recharge Sources Irrig. vs. Dryland Depressions LMWL (Peng et al. 214) Irrigation Water Irrig Avg Uplands LDF F8 (irrig) PF IU (irrig) LDF F1 (dry) PF DU (dry) δ 2 H water Dryland Avg δ 2 H water Snow LDF F4 (irrig) PF ID (irrig) PF DD (dry) δ 18 O water δ 18 O water
11 Triple G Cropland Grassland
12 Soil Moisture Crop vs Grassland 4 Precip. (mm) 2 Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Dep 2cm Dep 8cm Dep 15cm Cropland Grassland Jun 217 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
13 Soil Moisture Crop vs Grassland 4 Precip. (mm) 2 Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Dep 2cm Dep 8cm Dep 15cm Up 2cm Up 8cm Up 15cm Cropland Grassland Jun 217 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
14 Snowmelt Dynamics ΔSnowcover + Precip = Runoff + Vapor flux + Infiltration 4 2 Stauffer Water equivalent (mm) Mar 16 Spyhill Triple G 7% of snowmelt infiltrates Ground still frozen Frozen soil preferential flow 3 6 Jan 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17
15 Versatile Soil Moisture Budget (VSMB) Sublimation ET Precip ET Snow ET Precip ET Sublimation Overflow Upland Recharge Depression Recharge
16 VSMB Evapotranspiration ET (mm d -1 ) Improve VSMB accuracy for ET and Soil Moisture varying land use (e.g., grassland, different crops) Simulated Sim. ET_VSMB Observed Obs. ET -1 Stauffer Grassland -2 Mar 15 Aug 15 Jan 16 Jun 16 Nov 16 Apr 17
17 VSMB Soil Moisture Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ).5.4 VSMB Simul.3 TDR Meas cm Depth 5 cm 15 cm. Mar 15 Aug 15 Jan 16 Jun 16 Nov 16 Apr 17
18 Recharge Estimation AGS Low (grassland) Edmonton High (cropland) Recharge (mm/yr) Calgary Upcoming AGS Report Klassen, Liggett, Pavlovskii and Abdrakhimova
19 Sustainable Groundwater Management 1 Recharge Discharge = Storage ( water level) 1 Sustainable pumping rate (or yield)?
20 Sustainable Groundwater Management Recharge Pumping Discharge = Storage change 1 8 Long-term equilibrium: Reduced Discharge S 2
21 Max. Sustained Yields AGS Low Edmonton High Max. Sustained Yield (1 6 m 3 /yr) Calgary Upcoming AGS Report Klassen, Liggett, Pavlovskii and Abdrakhimova
22 Climate Model Bias Correction Study domain Climate models are: biased low resolution Correct WRF model output with Spyhill data
23 Many Questions Remain!
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