Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future Concerns
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1 Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future Concerns Steve Rissing Professor; Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology The Ohio State University Central Ohio Technical College, Pataskala May 17, 24, 31; June 7 10:00 AM- Noon 1
2 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? 2
3 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future Concerns I. In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? II. What else changes when the climate changes? III. What causes our climate? What causes it to change? IV. What are the sources of Greenhouse gases? V. What policies can we pursue? A. Mitigation B. Adaptation C. Study more until we are sure D. Do nothing (Climate change denial) 3
4 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Deviations from means. 4
5 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? 5
6 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? 6
7 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? 6
8 How do we Interact with Biodiversity? 1992 nited Nations Conference on Environment and Development The issues addressed included: Systematic scrutiny of patterns of production of toxic components, e.g. lead in gasoline or radioactive chemicals Alternative sources of energy to replace the use of fossil fuels which are linked to global climate change New reliance on public transportation to reduce vehicle emissions The growing scarcity of clean water 7
9 How do we Interact with Biodiversity? Produced three agreements: Convention on Biological Diversity Convention to Combat Desertification Sustainable Development Goals (Sept 2015) Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC; the main international treaty on climate change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Formed st report 1990 (UNFCCC) Most recent
10 How do we Interact with Biodiversity? Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC; the main international treaty on climate change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Formed st report 1990 (UNFCCC) Most recent
11 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? 9
12 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Global Atmospheric CO2 for last 400K yr. Vostok Ice Core (Antarctica) Temperature change from present, o C (blue) 4 o C 0 o C -4 o C -10 o C Year before present (present = 1950) Nature 399, (3 June 1999) doi: /
13 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Global Atmospheric CO2 for last 400K yr. Vostok Ice Core (Antarctica) Temperature change from present, o C (blue) CO2 Concentration (parts per million by volume) 4 o C 0 o C -4 o C -10 o C Year before present (present = 1950) 11
14 400 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Global Atmospheric CO2 for last 400K yr. Vostok Ice Core (Antarctica) Temperature change from present, o C (blue) CO2 Concentration (parts per million by volume) 407 ppm 4 o C 0 o C -4 o C -10 o C Year before present (present = 1950) 12
15 What distinguishes science from other human endeavors? Science can predict the future with models The sun will go dark in Columbus on... It will come back 3 min 58.4 sec later You can bank on it eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/ JSEX/JSEX- USA.html Limit of partial eclipse Total eclipse 13
16 What distinguishes science from other human endeavors? Science can predict the future with models 13
17 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate Global Temperature Change ( o F) Observations Natural and Human Factors Natural Factors Only Year Original source: Nature Geoscience 5, (2012) doi: /ngeo
18 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? 16
19 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? 18
20 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? 20
21 Temperature Change from Standard, ºC ( ) Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Mean for = 0 21
22 Temperature Change from Standard, ºC ( ) Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Mean for =
23 Temperature Change from Standard, ºC ( ) Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Mean for =
24 Temperature Change from Standard, ºC ( ) Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Mean for = 0 23
25 Temperature Change from Standard, ºC ( ) Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Mean for = 0 23
26 Temperature Change from Standard, ºC ( ) Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? STOP 1. How does a scientist decide which data to use? 2. What difference does it make? 3. Why chose only? Trend line Mean for =
27 Temperature Change from Standard, ºC ( ) Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? Why choose only? Cherry-picking Why cherry-pick? Healthy skepticism? Trend line Mean for =
28 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future Concerns I. In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? II. What else changes when the climate changes? III. What causes our climate? What causes it to change? IV. What are the sources of Greenhouse gases? V. What policies should we pursue? A. Mitigation B. Adaptation C. Study more until we are sure D. Do nothing 28
29 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 29
30 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 38
31 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 39
32 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 41
33 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 41
34 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 41
35 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 41
36 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate Isle de Jean Charles, LA 43
37 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate Isle de Jean Charles, LA 44
38 What else changes when the climate changes? Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate Isle de Jean Charles, LA 44
39 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future Concerns I. In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? II. What else changes when the climate changes? III. What causes our climate? What causes it to change? IV. What are the sources of Greenhouse gases? V. What policies should we pursue? A. Mitigation B. Adaptation C. Study more until we are sure D. Do nothing 46
40 What causes our climate? What causes it to change? 47
41 What causes our climate? What causes it to change? Atmospheric gases Greenhouse gases STOP What characterizes greenhouse gases? Carbon dioxide,.036% Oxygen, 21% Methane,.00015% Water,.01% Hydrogen, % Nitrogen, 78% 48
42 What causes our climate? What causes it to change? Daniel Schrag, Professor of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Harvard University; Director, Harvard University Center for the Environment 49
43 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? Overview of Global Climate Change and Human Biology I. In what ways, if at all, is the global climate changing? II. What else changes when the climate changes? III. What causes our climate? What causes it to change? IV. What are the anthropogenic sources of Greenhouse gases? V. What policies should we pursue? A. Mitigation B. Adaptation C. Study more until we are sure D. Do nothing 50
44 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? What are the anthropogenic sources of Greenhouse gases? Nitrous Oxide 6% F-gases 2% Methane 16% Carbon Dioxide 76% ghgemissions/global.html Source: IPCC (2014); based on global emissions from
45 Is Earth s Climate Changing; if so, how? What are the anthropogenic sources of Greenhouse gases? F-gases 2% 15,000x 230x Nitrous Oxide 6% Methane 16% 25x Carbon Dioxide 76% ghgemissions/global.html Source: IPCC (2014); based on global emissions from
46 Climate Change in the News 54
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