Examining future transport demand in an uncertain world insights from New Zealand

Transcription

1 CIHT Council 18 February 2015, London Examining future transport demand in an uncertain world insights from New Zealand Glenn Lyons Professor of Transport and Society, UWE Bristol

2 A Ministry of Transport commitment to its stewardship role looking ahead and considering how to respond to future challenges

3 Beware P Preconceptions redicted extrapolated outlook for the future (typically of growth in transport demand) giving a (misguided) sense of confidence lausible outlook for a future who s potential emergence cannot be denied based on current knowledge (e.g. the demise of the motor age) resumed outlook for the future on a basis of probability and instinct but without proof (e.g. the emergence of electric and self-driving cars) referred outlook for a future that is desirable (so therefore value laden e.g. growth in aviation to support global business or growth in cycling and walking to support healthy urban environments) ractical outlook for the future that aligns best with immediate interests and imperatives (e.g. the need for expanded transport infrastructure to support economic recovery)

4 Car traffic keeps on growing fact? You can t have economic growth without traffic growth fact?

5 New Zealand Transport Policy Supporting economic growth and productivity Following more than a decade of increasing concern about underinvestment in roading infrastructure, in 2009 the Government began a significant improvement programme. With an intention to invest nearly $11 billion in New Zealand s State highways over the 10 years to 2019, the Government focused on enabling economic growth rather than simply responding to it, providing high quality connections between key areas of production, processing and export. NZ DRAFT GOVERNMENT POLICY STATEMENT ON LAND TRANSPORT 2015/ /25

6 And yet something peculiar has been happening Passenger kilometres by private car and light trucks Light vehicle travel per person in NZ declined by 5.8 percent from 2003 to 2013 Professor Phil Goodwin, OECD, 2012 Total car travel has levelled off in several countries including New Zealand

7 2001 base = 100 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) by vehicle type Total VKT Light passenger VKT Light commercial VKT Truck VKT GDP Year GDP Light commercial VKT Truck VKT Total VKT Light passenger VKT In New Zealand the traffic intensity of economic activity has been reducing

8 The future isn t what it used to be Historic New Zealand light vehicle traffic forecasts vs actual growth

9 There is currently no consensus on what will happen to future demand for car travel Where are we heading? Grow Plateau? Decline time uncertainty

10 Change Sudden and dramatic Gradual and stealthy Transformative Geoff Wilson - flikr Jason E. Powell flickr.com/photos/metrolibraryarchive/ /in/photostream

11 Future Demand A NZ Ministry of Transport project to embrace uncertainty Scenario planning used to develop a set of plausible futures for NZ transport and society in 2042

12 Relative cost of energy high What will society want to do? While technologically possible to connect physically (transport) or virtually (telecommunications), a critical uncertainty is how society will want to access people, goods, services and opportunities in physical Accessibility preference virtual low What will society be able to do? Relative to other costs of living, affordability of energy is a critical uncertainty this influences what people will be able to do (volatility of energy prices is acknowledged by the World Energy Council as a critical uncertainty).

13 Relative cost of energy Co-operative and Close high Global Locals 3% 53% physical Accessibility preference virtual 35% 25% Travellers Paradise low Digital Decadence Percentage change in total vkt from 2014 to 2042

14 SRN traffic growth by 2040 of between 27% and 57% Road Investment Strategy Strategic Vision, DfT, December 2014

15 Bill Frymire masterfile.com How could or should our transport system evolve in order to support mobility in the future?

16 People Change Flexibility Accessibility Responsibility Technology

17 Change Future demand estimates vary. This reflects our limited understanding of cause and effect. Uncertainty of change in travel demand and its relationship with prosperity must be respected not concealed. Sondem / Dollar Photo Club

18 Albert Duce (Wikimedia) Flexibility We must invest for plausible not predicted future possibility. Flexibility should be valued when designing our systems and infrastructure to avoid lock-in and to enable uncertainty to be accommodated.

19 ArtemSam / Dollar Photo Club Accessibility Connecting together people, goods, services and opportunities for a thriving New Zealand is not just about our transport system. Access is determined by our transport system, the way we plan our physical environment and digital communications. We must invest in evolving this triple-access system.

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21 Advertisement from 1957 for America s Independent Electric Light and Power Companies art by H. Miller Technology Technological advances continue to be remarkable and we must get better at tracking developments and better at critically examining future prospects.

22 Soka Gakkai International NZ (sginz.org) - SGINZ Youth conference People We need to better understand how and why the travel behaviour of people at different life stages, from different backgrounds and in different locations is changing and what this means for our regions.

23 Responsibility We do not know what people in the future will want to do or be able to do. We do know people can adapt. There is a responsibility to shape our transport system to support New Zealand s future. Predict and provide should become decide and provide.

24 Thank you