Climate Change Scenarios and socio-economic implications

Transcription

1 Climate Change Scenarios and socio-economic implications Richard Harding, CEH, United Kingdom

2 Impacts models Models for Scenario Analysis Integrated assessment models Climate models Moss et al 2010

3 X no feedback 1996 to 2007 The SRES Linear procedure Moss et al 2010 Regional Climate Models

4 The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Economic Drivers A1 A2 The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is selfreliance and preservation of local identities. Global B1 B2 Regional. The B1 emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Environmental Drivers The SRES Socio-economic Scenarios

5 39... scenarios

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7 New parallel approach for AR5 Reduce time between scenario generation and impact modelling More flexible system Better use of climate model time More comparability between Climate models

8 Representative Concentration Pathways Requires knowledge of carbon cycle and land cover changes a. Changes in radiative forcing relative to pre-industrial condition b. Energy and industry CO2 emissions for the RCP candidates. Range of SRES scenario s Moss et al 2010

9 What 2020 and 2050 emissions ensure we stay below 2 o C global warming with 50% or more probability? Colour regions above give possible solutions. White Space means not possible. Strong dependence on current emissions pathway (hence current uncertainty needs to be reduced). Chris Huntingford (CEH), Jason Lowe (AVOID - Lead) and others

10 UKCP09 offers: 1.an increased level of detail 2.Estimates of uncertainty

11 Regional Model Climate Scenarios UKCP09 capturing modelling uncertainty

12 Regional Model Climate Scenarios UKCP09 capturing modelling uncertainty

13 European Water Use Scenarios Drivers of water use that might influence future water availability and quality and sectoral water demand within Europe, and so inform the scenario development process include: Population and migration Economic growth Agricultural development Technological developments Climate change Land use change National and European policies and legislation

14 SCENES: Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States Policy drivers in SCENES Conceptual policy map for domestic water use Water Framework Directive Floods Directive & other Water Quantity Directives Water Quality Directives CAP reform & other agricultural policies Biodiversity policies

15 The first-order drafts of storylines of the future outlook of pan-europe until 2050 Water stress 2030 Sustainability First Scenario

16 WaterMIP: mean annual water fluxes Amazon Ganges Brahm. Changjiang Danube Lena Oranje 1 gwava 2 h07 3 jules 4 lpj 5 macpdm 6 matsiro 7 mpi hm 10 vic 11 watergap 12 wbmplus Evapotranspiration (mm year -1 ) MacKenzie Mississippi Amazon Parana Rhine Danube Volga Niger Nile Congo Oranje Lena Indus Ganges-B. Mekong HuangHe Chang Jiang Murray-Darling Runoff (mm year -1 )

17 Concluding remarks We need a better dialogue between impacts, adaptation and modelling communities Quicker throughput of climate model output to impacts communities More use of probabilistic forecasts including chains of uncertainty Better mechanisms to provide policy relevant advice

18 20 th c ERA40 CRU WATCH forcing data, Multi-model runoff series (daily) Drought and flood analysis Global Extremes Analysis 21 st c Climate model output Runoff Drought: Mean drought duration per cell ( ) Bias correction MPI-HM Van Huijgevoort et al. (ongoing)