Study Launch at Promoting Renewable Energy Investments in Pakistan

Transcription

1 Study Launch at Prmting Renewable Energy Investments in Pakistan June 5, 2017 Asian Develpment Bank

2 Slar Rapid Assessment Slar Rapid Objectives Study f current status f slar energy develpment in Pakistan Identificatin f barriers cnstraining grwth f increased deplyment f slar Discussin f interventins t address the barriers Recmmendatin f pssible areas fr investment in slar energy Methdlgy Review f desk studies Interviews with slar prject develpers and cncerned fficials in the public sectr

3 Cuntry Cntext Cuntry Cntext Installed Capacity 25,500 MW Demand: 5-6 GW higher than installed capacity Distributin and Transmissin Lsses: 20% Integrative Negtiatin hurs in rural areas Relies n win-win situatin fr bth parties and therefre Electrificatin relies Rate: n cllabrative 73% (90% in urban mdel areas f and 68% in rural areas) cnflict reslutin Lad Shedding: 6-8 hurs in urban centers; 10-12

4 Cuntry s Pwer Generatin Mix Cuntry s Pwer Generatin Mix Surce Installed Capacity (MW) % f Installed Capacity Generatin (GWh) % f Generatin Hydel 7, % 34, % Furnace Oil/High Speed Diesel 5, % 43, % Gas 11, % 34, % Cal % % Nuclear % 4, % Wind % % Slar % % Others % % Ttal 25, % 117, % Pwer System Statistics Pakistan s pwer generatin mix is dminated by thermal pwer Share f renewables (excluding large hydrpwer abve 50 MW) is less than 2% Slar and wind energy has nly picked up in the last few years Increased deplyment f renewable in the cuntry can prvide energy security, freign exchange reserves stability and envirnmental benefit

5 Pakistan s Renewable Energy Target Slar Ptential in Pakistan Adding a minimum f 9,700 MW f renewable energy capacity in the system by 2030

6 Slar Ptential in Pakistan Slar Ptential in Pakistan Pakistan lies in an area f ne the highest slar irradiance in the wrld There is abut 2,900,000 MW f slar energy ptential in the cuntry Accrding t Pakistan Energy Bk , the amunt f energy available in Balchistan is enugh t meet current energy requirements f the cuntry Glbal Hrizntal Irradiance (GHI) values ver 4.5 kwh/m2/day cvering ver 90% f the cuntry s land area. Values f just ver 6.4 kwh/m²/day are reached in the suthwestern regin f Balchistan decreasing gradually twards the nrtheast f the cuntry t 4.0 kwh/m 2 /day.

7 Glbal Hrizntal Irradiance Glbal Hrizntal Irradiance (kwh/m 2 ) Wrld Bank Grup ESMAP

8 Phtvltaic Pwer Ptential

9 Grid Cnnected Slar Pwer Plants Grid-Cnnected Slar Pwer Plants 28 Prjects f 957 MW are at varius stages f develpment within the framewrk f AEDB plicies and prcedures Additinal 3,000 MW initiated by prvinces S far 4 prjects f 400 MW are peratinal in Chlistan, Punjab

10 Distributed Slar Distributed Slar Net Metering initiated in Punjab and is in the prcess f being implemented in ther prvinces Slar pwer fr un-electrified schls and basic health units Slar Hme Systems fr husehlds in remte villages Cnversin f agricultural tube wells t slar pwer

11 Cents/kWh Declining Trend in Upfrnt Tariff f Slar PV Prjects Rund I (January 2014) Rund II (January 2015) Rund III (December 2015) Surce: Varius NEPRA Upfrnt Slar Tariff Determinatins

12 Private Sectr vs. Public Sectr Barriers Cnstraining Increased Deplyment f Slar Energy Ptential Slutins Private Sectr Perspective Public Sectr Perspective Insufficient capacity f the grid t evacuate pwer frm incming pwer prjects including renewable energy Frequent revisins f tariff by the regulatry authrity Lack f crdinatin between gvernment agencies Perceived bias, amng mst gvernment fficials, against renewables and in favr f cal and LNG prjects. Intermittent nature f the resurce need abut MW f spinning reserve Ability f renewables t meet electricity demand f the cuntry High tariffs awarded t renewable energy prjects

13 Variatin in Public Sectr Perspectives Ptential Slutins Gvernment Agency Alternate Energy Develpment Bard (AEDB) Natinal Transmissin and Despatch Cmpany (NTDC) Central Pwer Purchase Agency- Guarantee (CPPA-G), Planning Cmmissin Identified Barrier(s) Inadequate capacity f the grid and system peratr t integrate variable renewable energy int the system Vulnerability f renewable energy t large fluctuatins affecting grid reliability and security Insufficient financial resurces t undertake the required grid reinfrcement High upfrnt tariffs awarded t slar and wind prjects driving up generatin csts

14 Pssible Slutins Ptential Slutins Grid Strengthening Capacity Building Cmpetitive Bidding Implementing Future Technlgies

15 Grid Strengthening Grid Strengthening Carry ut majr system reinfrcements, including additinal transmissin lines and transfrmers. i. Reinfrcement f 220 kv system in Lal Suhanra regin and extensin f 500kV netwrk in Jhimpir. ii. 132kV system reinfrcements fr numerus dispersed and embedded renewable generatrs. Leverage private investment thrugh the recently intrduced Transmissin Line Investment Plicy f Build capabilities f the system peratr t integrate renewable energy i. Imprved frecasting capabilities ii. Criteria fr cntingencies, and its respnse t up/dwn ramps in generatin as well as weather disturbances iii. Respnse ptins such as electricity strage and transmissin t distant lad centers.

16 Capacity Building Cmpetitive Bidding Establish a ne-windw facility fr develpers thrughut the implementatin prcess. Standardize prcessing time fr gvernment agencies and departments t reduce the turnarund time Wrk n imprving administrative capacities f the relevant federal and prvincial agencies bth in terms f sectral knwledge and sufficiency f human resurces t execute renewable energy prjects Imprve energy planning in Pakistan t ptimize available generatin surces and t meet demand in the mst cst-effective and sustainable manner.

17 Cmpetitive Bidding Cmpetitive Bidding Implementing auctin schemes can alleviate cncerns f the federal gvernment regarding high slar energy csts and tariffs. NEPRA, in March 2015, annunced cmpetitive bidding tariff fr slar prjects. AEDB has initiated wrk n develping framewrk fr cmpetitive bidding The framewrk shuld be based n the lessns learnt frm the past plicies in the cuntry fr the IPPs, as well as frm the experience f internatinal renewable energy market. Design f the auctin shuld be such that it disincentivizes bidders frm underbidding

18 Evlutin f Utility-Scale Slar PV Auctin Prices arund the wrld Cmpetitive Bidding Surce: IRENA, 2017a

19 Future Technlgies Cmpetitive Bidding Hybrid Plants Cncentrated Slar Pwer Flating Slar Smart Grids Energy Strage Technlgies Slar Pwered Irrigatin Pumps Pay-As-Yu-G System

20 Hybrid Plants Cmpetitive Bidding Cmbining Phtvltaic (PV) with wind turbines, large hydr, and/r diesel generatrs can address the weather-reliant issues f intermittent renewables Hybrid prjects benefit by increasing the aggregate system utput and by sharing the transmissin capacity Hybrid plants are als ideal fr installatin in remte areas, electrifying cmplete regins with high efficiency. Surce:

21 Cncentrated Slar Plants (CSPs) Cmpetitive Bidding Cmpared t PV systems, CSPs allw the use f slar pwer t be used fr baselad generatin as well as fr peak pwer generatin. With imprvements in technlgy and industry experience, CSP bid prices have started declining. The installed csts f a cncentrated slar plant is expected t decline by 33% by CSP prjects in Balchistan and/r suth f Punjab can be beneficial fr Pakistan given the grid cnstraints and the flexible dispatch prfile CSP ffers. Surce:

22 Flating Slar Cmpetitive Bidding Setting up flating slar plants in reservirs f hydr plants, such as Tarbela, Mangla and Ghazi Bartha, can imprve its water strage capacity and amp up the energy prductin. Glbally, Japan has taken lead in the installatin f this technlgy. Other cuntries including India, Australia, UK and Brazil have fllwed suit. Slar plants can als be built atp irrigatin canals enabling efficient and cheap land use and reduced water evapratin frm the channels underneath. Surce:

23 Smart Grids Cmpetitive Bidding Smart grids prvide real-time data n system peratin which can be used fr imprving reliability f the grid as well as fr increasing system security. It allws fr mre sphisticated infrmatin frm transmissin and distributin systems as any fluctuatin f vltage can be addressed befre it leads t an utage. Smart grid technlgy shuld be implemented incrementally.

24 Energy Strage Technlgies Cmpetitive Bidding Cmbining battery strage with renewable energy can supprt the utput f these plants by respnding quickly t any utput fluctuatins. In 2015, 250 MW f utility-scale electricity strage (excluding pumped hydr and lead-acid batteries) were installed wrldwide, up frm 160 MW in 2014 (IRENA, 2016) Decline in capital csts will cntinue in the next five years, with the strngest declines in lead acid batteries, lithiumin energy applicatins, sdium and lng-duratin flywheels (Lazard s Levelized Cst f Strage Analysis 2.0)

25 Slar fr Water Pumping Cmpetitive Bidding 1.08 millin tube-wells and lift pumps are currently in peratin in the cuntry but the number f slar pwered tube-wells and pumps are limited t few thusands. Inefficient use f electricity by diesel pwered water pumps is a cncern acrss the cuntry, as majrity f the farmers d nt pay fr electricity fr pumping water. Cnversin f diesel pwered pumps n t slar can yield ecnmic and envirnmental benefits

26 ADB s Invlvement in the Sectr Cmpetitive Bidding ADB has been the largest develpment assistance prvider in the energy sectr, prviding almst $8 billin in assistance t the sectr. Under its Multi-Tranche Financing Facility (MFF), ADB is assisting NTDC in strengthening Pakistan s pwer transmissin system and imprving peratins and management f NTDC and CPPA-G. ADB is als financing installatin f Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) in IESCO and LESCO Late last year, ADB apprved Access t Clean Energy Result Based Lending (RBL) facility in 2016 fr financing ff-grid slar and micr-hydr t prvide pwer fr public schls, cmmunity centers, and basic health units in Punjab and KPK.

27 Future Technlgies