LOCAL COASTAL PLAN UPDATE. March 14, 2018 ADAPTATION STRATEGY RESULTS CONCEPTUAL SEA LEVEL RISE & ADAPTATION POLICIES

Transcription

1 LOCAL COASTAL PLAN UPDATE March 14, 2018 ADAPTATION STRATEGY RESULTS CONCEPTUAL SEA LEVEL RISE & ADAPTATION POLICIES

2 Agenda I. Lcal Castal Prgram (LCP) Overview II. Next Steps and Schedule III. Castal Hazards Review IV. Vulnerability Assessment Review V. Adaptatin Strategy Results VI. Cnceptual SLR & Adaptatin Plicies VII. LCP Plicy Next Steps Slide 2

3 Intrductins: City and Cnsultant Team Develpment Services Slide 3 Revell Castal Castal Hazards Mdeling Adaptatin Analysis Everest Internatinal Drainage Analysis Adaptatin Analysis Tsunami mdeling Dr. Phil King Ecnmic Analysis Planning Divisin Rincn Cnsultants Prject management Technical Analysis Envirnmental Analysis Plicy Develpment RRM Design Grup Cmmunity Engagement LCP Plicy Develpment

4 I. Oxnard s Lcal Castal Prgram (LCP) Slide , vters apprve Prpsitin 20 Castal Zne Cnservatin Act 1976, Legislature adpts Castal Act, funding t develp LCPs. 1982, Oxnard adpts Castal Land Use Plan (land uses and 95 plicies). 1986, Oxnard adpts Chapter 17, Castal Zning Ordinance. Varius amendments ver 30 years. Fur Planning Areas: 1. McGrath-Mandalay 2. Oxnard Shres 3. Channel Islands Harbr 4. Ormnd Beach

5 Need fr LCP Update: 1. Mst all develpments cmpleted r apprved 2. Several LCP plicies utdated 3. Cnsistency with gals and plicies in the 2030 General Plan 4. Ormnd Beach Wetland Restratin planning initiated, Halac clsed, Once-thrugh Cling (OTC) phasing ut 5. McGrath State Beach clsure, relcatin planning 6. Castal Cmmissin SLR Plicy Guidance adpted August Castal Cmmissin Draft Residential Adaptatin Plicy Guidance released July 2017 and Revised March 2018 Slide 5

6 Castal Cmmissin Sea Level Rise Guidance Slide 7

7 Cmpleted Tasks Slide 7 Reviewed current LCP and 2030 General Plan fr cnsistency. Mapped Envirnmentally Sensitive Habitat Areas (ESHA). Mapped Castal Hazards with SLR incrprated. Cmpleted Tsunami and Drainage Vulnerability. Draft Vulnerability Assessment and Fiscal Impact Reprt. Draft Adaptatin Strategy Reprt. Crdinatin with Castal Cmmissin, Agencies, Technical Stakehlders, etc. Public Outreach: General public and interest grups Technical Advisry Cmmittee

8 II. Next steps Update Castal Land Use Plan. Submit fr Castal Cmmissin Review. Re-submit fr Certificatin. City Hearings and Adptin. Slide 8 Summer 2017 t Fall 2018 Winter 2019 Cmplete Cmplete Fall 2018

9 III. Castal Hazards Review Slide 11

10 Definitin f Hazards Ersin when the land is wrn away by water, wind, r ice Castal Strm Fld when flding ccurs in erded areas Castal Strm Wave when water levels rise & waves reach further inland Slide 12 Tidal inundatin when the tide rises & water cvers land nrmally dry

11 Oxnard Shres December 11, 2015 Slide 14

12 Castal Hazards increase with SLR Used TNC Castal Resilience Mdeling. SLR Prjectins: 2030, 2060, and Fur Castal Hazards, cmbinatin f all Castal Hazards, and Tsunami mdeled. By Fur Planning Areas and Prt Hueneme. Did nt cnsider any adaptatin strategies. SLR Atlas available nline at Slide 12

13 IV. Vulnerability Assessment Review Evaluated impacts f castal hazards. Included bth public and private prperty. Market value f land and replacement cst value f structures were used (USD 2017). Ventura Cunty Prperty Tax data fr each parcel. Replacement csts estimated per square ft using FEMA s Hazard Guidance. Depth f flding based n FEMA guidelines with SLR added. In prcess f being finalized with Castal Cmmissin. Slide 13

14 8 Sectrs Evaluated Slide 14 Residential Land Channel Islands Harbr Cmmercial Land Hazardus Waste Oxnard Municipal Buildings Castal Access Pwer Plants Infrastructure

15 Vulnerability Summary Ersin biggest threat t all sectrs Except Cmmercial land and Channel Island Harbr -Tidal Inundatin. Halac Superfund Site Castal Strm Flding. N large damage t cmmercial and municipal prperties due t castal hazards. Castal hazards are prjected t impact 415 acres f publiclyaccessible beach at McGrath State Beach and Oxnard Shres. Residential Land lsses are estimated t ttal mre than $300 millin by 2030 due t ersin. Slide 27

16 V. Adaptatin Strategy Results Slide 16

17 Organizatin by Planning Area PA 1 McGrath-Mandalay PA 2 Oxnard Shres PA 3 Channel Islands Harbr PA 4 Ormnd Beach Each Planning Area has gegraphy and land uses that requires a different mix f adaptatins. Adaptatin planning already underway in sme planning areas (i.e. McGrath and Ormnd Beach) Adaptatins need t wrk tgether, and crdinate with State, Cunty, Prt Hueneme, Harbr District, and U.S. Navy. Slide 17

18 What are SLR/LCP Adaptatin chices? Slide 18 ACCOMMODATION Mdify existing develpments r design new develpments. GREEN PROTECT Dunes and ther natural features reduce strm damage ptential. HARD PROTECT Armring with rcks, seawalls, grins, dikes, and ther hard infrastructure. MANAGED RETREAT Relcate r remve existing develpment.

19 Cst/Benefit Analysis Net benefits in the analysis include Recreatinal value in the frm f beach attendance. Csts assciated with cnstructin and maintenance f the adaptatin strategy. Prperty damage csts that wuld ccur as a result f the adaptatin strategy. Factrs nt included in analysis Public access Ecnmic value f cmmercial develpment (e.g. Channel Islands Harbr) Eclgical impacts Visual impacts These will need t be balanced against the ecnmic csts during the plicy develpment phase. Slide 33

20 PA 1 McGrath-Mandalay Adaptatin Strategy Examined Managed Retreat Relcatin f McGrath State Beach facilities t higher grund within the park. Cnsistent with Oxnard s 2030 General Plan plicies (ER-3.1, SC-2.4, CD-21.3, ICS-17.1, and SH-3.5) Future Cnditins Slide 20 Decmmissining f Mandalay Generating Statin (MGS) after SCE McGrath Peaker remval after 25 year permit expires. Surce: vcstar

21 PA 1 McGrath-Mandalay Results Managed Retreat cnt. Net Benefits (2017 dllars) Slide 21 Demlitin and relcatin csts f the McGrath State Beach facilities were nt included (between $278,000 and $418,000). Analysis estimates the decmmissining f the MGS site $24 -$36 millin. Nt included in analysis timing uncertain.

22 PA 2 Oxnard Shres Adaptatin Strategies Examined Green Prtect Create dunes frm 5th Street suth. Accmmdatin Mdificatins f strmwater drainage/pump system. Hard Prtect Build a seawall frm 5th Street suth. Managed Retreat Slide 22 Remval f public and private develpment in Oxnard Shres.

23 PA 2 Oxnard Shres Results Net Benefits (2017 dllars) Slide 23 Accmmdatin Cst t add pumps t the strm drain system t address tidal inundatin/flding is estimated frm $0.8m t $1.2m Wuld nt prvide cmplete prtectin against castal flding and ersin resulting frm a 100-year strm event.

24 PA 3 Hllywd Beach (Cunty) / Channel Islands Harbr (City) Adaptatin Strategies Examined Green Prtect Dune Cnstructin alng Hllywd Beach shreline. Hard Prtect New Seawall and/r revetment frm Channel Islands Blvd t Channel Island Harbr entrance. Managed Retreat Remval f develpment in the Channel Islands Harbr. Accmmdatin Slide 24 Elevate Channel Islands Harbr.

25 PA 3 Hllywd Beach (Cunty) / Channel Islands Harbr (City) Slide 25 Net benefits with Green Prtect in Overall net csts acrss all strategies by Did nt accunt fr the benefit f prtecting CI Harbr. CI Harbr cntributes ecnmic value t the Cunty apprximately $121 millin per year. Accmmdatin Engineering strategies (e.g. bulkheads, buildings, and pads) were nt included in the analysis because highly dependent n specific engineering design. Channel Islands Harbr Public Wrks Plan prvides plicy directin fr develpment and retrfitting in Channel Islands Harbr. Crdinatin with Harbr and Cunty will be required.

26 PA 4 Ormnd Beach Adaptatin Strategies Green Prtect Implement Ormnd Beach Restratin and Access Plan. Design wetlands t prtect existing industrial develpment. Managed Retreat Slide 26 Remve Ormnd Beach Generating Statin (OBGS) and Halac Superfund Site. Relcate Oxnard Water Treatment. Surce: califrniabeaches.cm

27 PA 4 Ormnd Beach Adaptatin Strategies Green Prtect Implement Ormnd Beach Restratin and Access Plan. Csts being estimated by the State Castal Cnservancy, Oxnard, and TNC. Benefits wuld mstly be eclgical. Nt quantified in the analysis. Managed Retreat Remve OBGS and Halac Superfund Site. Slide 27 Csts fr Halac are being estimated by EPA. Relcate Oxnard Water Treatment Estimated cst - $400 millin t $650 millin. Wuld require substantial upgrades t stay in current lcatin.

28 Adaptatin Summary Planning Area 1 Managed Retreat Only reasnable ptin, cnsistent with City plicy Net-benefits in all time hrizns Planning Area 2 Oxnard Shres Planning Area 3 Hllywd Beach (Cunty) / Channel Islands Harbr (City) Green Prtect yields the mst benefits in all time hrizns due t value f the prperty in this Planning Area Overall negative net benefits all scenaris by 2100 due t increased ersin/flding Analysis des nt cnsider the ecnmic value f Channel Islands Harbr ecnmic driver in Cunty Reginal Crdinatin needed Planning Area 4 Ormnd Beach Slide 28 By 2060, Green Prtect yields psitive net benefits Csts and benefits assciated with wetland restratin depend n the design f the OBRAP plan.

29 Discussin Break Slide 29 Any questins regarding adaptatin reprt? Strategies Analysis Results

30 VI. Cnceptual SLR and Adaptatin LCP Plicies Slide 30 Results f Adaptatin Reprt shw that Green Prtect and Managed Retreat have mst net benefits Cnsistent with Castal Cmmissin Guidance Plans are already being develped fr certain areas (McGrath State Beach & Ormnd Beach) New SLR and Adaptatin LCP plicies frm recent draft Califrnia Castal Cmmissin Residential Adaptatin Plicy Guidance.

31 VI. Cnceptual SLR and Adaptatin LCP Plicies Plicy Categries Slide 31 Understanding SLR Avid Siting New Develpment In Hazard Areas Mving Develpment Away Frm Hazards (fr Planning Area 1 McGrath Mandalay) Building Barriers T Prtect Frm Hazards (Planning Area 2 & 3) Cmmunity Scale Adaptatin Planning

32 Understanding SLR Identify and Using Best Available Science Map Castal Hazards Identify Risks frm Grundwater Inundatin Site-specific Castal Hazard Study Requirements Assumptins f Risk, Waiver f Liability, and Indemnity fr New Develpment in Hazard Areas Real Estate Disclsure Of Hazards Slide 32

33 New Develpment In Hazard Areas Minimize Siting New Develpment in Hazard Areas Discurage Shreline Armring t Prtect New Develpment Remval Cnditins r Develpment Duratin (Planning Area 1 McGrathMandalay Only ) Slide 34

34 Building Barriers T Prtect Frm Hazards Pursue Green Shreline Prtectin in Planning Area 2 Oxnard Shres Design Adaptatin Fr Waterway Cmmunities (Seabridge And Mandalay Bay) and Channel Islands Harbr Allw Prtective Devices fr Waterway Cmmunities and Channel Island Harbr Slide 37

35 Mving Hazards Away Frm Develpment Adequate Drainage and Ersin Cntrl fr New Develpment Based n Site Specific Studies Fld Hazard Mitigatin fr New Develpment Slide 36

36 Cmmunity Scale Adaptatin Planning Crdinate Adaptatin Planning at a Reginal Level with Cunty f Ventura, Naval Base Ventura Cunty, BEACON and thers Establishment f SLR Overlay Zne t Designate Where SLR Plicies Apply Cntinue t Facilitate Planning Effrts Currently Underway fr Ormnd Beach and McGrath State Beach Crdinate Reginally t Create a Cmprehensive Beach Nurishment and Management Plan Slide 38

37 VII. LCP Plicy Next Steps Gather and incrprate feedback Submit entire LUP t Castal Cmmissin at end f mnth. Develp Lcal Implementatin Plan (LIP) Slide 40 Technical Advisry Cmmittee Public Stakehlders Meetings with varius Agencies (Ventura Cunty, Navy, Public Wrks, etc.) Zning rdinances required t implement the LUP. Initial thughts? Questins?

38 Thank Yu All final dcuments available n Oxnard LCP website. Any questins r cmments Isidr Figuera at isidr.figuera@xnard.rg. Slide 41