How Climate Change Impacts Water Security

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1 How Climate Change Impacts Water Security Linking climate change and water security in Bulgaria Dr Wilfried Hundertmark, Senior Irrigation Specialist Sofia March 1,

2 Drought Conditions in Bulgaria Summer Evapotranspiration (ET) 2013 Source: National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Number of days with soil moisture deficit during summer mm/year 300

3 Flood Risk Management- What s at Stake? In 2014 the region of Severozapaden was heavily affected by floods. 700 homes and public buildings were flooded, as well as main roads and farms. In April 2015 the European Commission (EC) pledged 66.5 million from the European Union Solidarity Fund to Bulgaria, Italy and Romania following the flood disasters in Source: BG Ministry of Defence; August 2014 Mizia floods Agreement between Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine to restore 2,236 km 2 of floodplain to form a 9,000 km 2 Lower Danube Green Corridor.

4 Irrigation Sector Challenges What are the main challenge? Exposure to inter-annual climatic stress Irrigation infrastructure deficiencies Underutilization of significant water storage capacity What needs to happen? Modernize irrigation infrastructure Provide better access to water saving technology Improve irrigation service provision (flexibility, reliability and equity) Manage water resource utilization based on actual water availability and water body status (real-time) Build a regulatory framework for collective agricultural water management EU Water Framework Directive Common Agricultural Policy EU Flood Risk Directive What s getting in the way? Access to finance for irrigation modernization investment Specific ex-ante conditionality under European Agriculture Fund for Rural Development (Article 46 of EU regulation 1305/2013) A framework for river basin management taking the environment as an entry point Direct payment scheme Rural development Greening policy Irrigation investment support linked to status of water bodies Flood risk management giving rivers more space MS must develop flood risk management plans on the basis of PPP (preparedness, prevention and protection)

5 Risks Related Hydro-power Generation Tsankov Kamak Bulgaria has a vast hydropower potential of approx. 15,000 GWh per annum. Only a quarter is currently developed. Sestrimo Trade-offs exist between hydropower generation and other uses, especially for smaller plants.

6 Climate Related Water Issues Risks. What are the additional physical / hydrological risks for water resource systems resulting from climate change? Flood and drought risks Surface water flows, groundwater net recharge Storage Vulnerabilities: What are the economical, social and environmental impacts on water use resulting from changes of water resource systems? Agriculture Domestic supplies Energy production (hydropower) Readiness. What is Bulgaria s readiness to investing in climate adaptation? Drought adaptation Flood risk management Water security (supply and demand side)

7 How Bulgaria s Climate Vulnerability and Readiness ND-GAIN Index 2015 to Adaptation are Ranked by Others high vulnerability to climatic change, but low level of readiness not highly vulnerable; not ready for investment highly vulnerable; ready to accept adaptation investment Source: University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN), low vulnerability; ready and open for investments

8 Water Security Concept Social Productive uses: agriculture domestic industries environment Water resource endowment (surface & groundwater) Environemental Impact Areas Economic Growth, Wealth, Wellbeing Productive investment: irrigation, hydropower, water supply Investment in water security Information, institutions & Infrastructure Disruptive impacts: flood, drought, disease (increase hazards) Hazard Exposure Risk Vulnerability Preventive and protective investments: storage, flood defence, forecasting, sanitation (reduce vulnerability)

9 Gap Analysis of Climate-induced Water Security Climate Adaptation Readiness Water Resource Management Water Supply & Sanitation Irrigation & Drainage Hydro-power Other Policy Legislation Institutions / governance Infrastructure status Management capacity Investment Finance

10 Water Balance & Water Accounting Support Water Balance: inflow minus outflow +/- storage change considering various components (e.g. reservoir, river, aquifer) of the hydrological cycle. Water Accounting: integrates physical (hydrological) and economic information related to water consumption and use

11 Flood Risk Hot Spot Mapping & Analysis

12 Trade-off Analysis Flood Risk Management Preparedness Bringing win-win solutions into the focus of flood risk management Protection Flood risk management Prevention Trade-offs exist between of additional cost of measures and cost of damage to society resulting floods

13 Water Security Planning Support - (Meeting the Needs of All) River Basins Management Plans Flood Risk Management Plans Environment Sector Development Plans Domestic / Industries Water Management Plans Integrated Water Security Planning and Management