World energy needs and options

Transcription

1 World energy needs and options Outline Emission scenarios: class prediction and preference Factors controlling recent emissions Assumed technology improvements in IPCC scenarios energy needs and options example of Denmark Sources: (on class website under "Readings" > "Week 9") Raupach et al. (2007), "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions," Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104, Pielke et al. (2008), "Dangerous Assumptions," Nature, 452, Hoffert et al (2002), Science, 298, John Houghton (2003), Global Warming: The Complete Briefing

2 >> Emission Scenarios: Class predictions and preferences

3 IPCC Emission Scenarios: Summary Economic World World Technology Growth Population Affairs Path A1F1 very rapid, peaks at coherent, fossil-fuels global 9 billion market-based A1T non-fossil A1B mix A2 modest, continuous regional, mixed, varies rise self-reliance variable B1 convert to peaks at coherent, clean, non-material 9 billion gov.-based efficient B2 modest, continuous regional, clean, varies rise social equity efficient For each column, select your preference and your prediction

4 IPCC Emission Scenarios: PREFER Economic World World Technology Growth Population Affairs Path A1F1 very rapid, peaks at coherent, fossil-fuels global 9 billion market-based A1T non-fossil A1B mix A2 modest, continuous regional, mixed, varies rise self-reliance variable B1 convert to peaks at coherent, clean, non-material 9 billion gov.-based efficient B2 modest, continuous regional, clean, varies rise social equity efficient

5 IPCC Emission Scenarios: PREDICT Economic World World Technology Growth Population Affairs Path A1F1 very rapid, peaks at coherent, fossil-fuels global 9 billion market-based A1T non-fossil A1B mix A2 modest, continuous regional, mixed, varies rise self-reliance variable B1 convert to peaks at coherent, clean, non-material 9 billion gov.-based efficient B2 modest, continuous regional, clean, varies rise social equity efficient

6 IPCC Scenarios: Class Prediction and Preference PREDICT: A , rising rapidly ppm PREFER: B2 480ppm 610 rising slowly

7 >> Factors controlling recent emissions

8 Kaya Identity for analyzing CO2 emissions F = P * g * e * f Emissions = Population GDP person energy GDP emissions energy Average Income Energy Intensity of the economy Goals: g (economic growth) e (energy efficiency) f (decarbonize energy system) Carbon Intensity of the energy system

9 Factors controlling emissions: 2004 values F = P * g * e * f Emissions = Population GDP person energy GDP emissions energy P g e f h = e * f other countries: D1=developed, D2=developing, D3=least developed 200 gc/$ Raupach et al. (2007), "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions," Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104,

10 Emissions: Scenarios and Stabilization Paths A2 B2 Raupach et al. (2007), "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions," Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104,

11 Emissions: Scenarios and Actual recent emissions ( ): extremely rapid growth now higher than highest IPCC scenario Raupach et al. (2007), "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions," Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104,

12 Efficiency Changes over Time Raupach et al. (2007), "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions," Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104,

13 Efficiency Changes over Time Raupach et al. (2007), "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions," Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104,

14 Regional responsibilities Cumul: Cumulative global emissions, Flux: Current global emissions in 2004 Growth: Growth in emissions, Pop: Global population, 2004 Over 70% of emissions growth in developing world (large populations emerging from poverty) Raupach et al. (2007), "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions," Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104,

15 Assumed efficiency gains in IPCC scenarios The technological advances needed to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 may be bigger than we think. Roger Pielke, Jr., Tom Wigley, Christopher Green Pielke et al. (2008), "Dangerous Assumptions," Nature, 452,

16 Assumed efficiency gains in IPCC scenarios Recall: None of the IPCC scenarios include climate policy. However: All of the scenarios include technology advances. Pielke et al.'s idea: Useful to look at emissions for "frozen technology". "frozen technology" scenarios: > population and economic growth as in current scenarios > keep e (energy intensity) and f (carbon intensity) at their current values (no improvement in efficiency) F = P * g * e * f

17 Assumed efficiency gains in IPCC scenarios Pielke et al. (2008), "Dangerous Assumptions," Nature, 452,

18 Assumed efficiency gains in IPCC scenarios All IPCC scenarios predict improvement in energy efficiency (decreasing e) Most IPCC scenarios predict decarbonization of the energy supply (decreasing f) e From , both factors increased f Pielke et al. (2008), "Dangerous Assumptions," Nature, 452,

19 >> energy needs and options

20 Energy Alternatives: paths to CO2 stabilization

21 Energy Alternatives Hoffert et al., Science, 2002, 298, 981

22 World Energy Needs current situation: global, primary energy production is 12 TW (i.e. 12 * Watts) 85% from fossil fuels need: to stabilize CO2 at 550 ppm (double pre-industrial) and accommodate rising population and economic progress need TW emission-free energy by 2050 Hoffert et al (2002), Science, 298,

23 Energy USE Energy use by sector (Houghton Table 11.4, numbers for 1990) Mtoe/yr GtC-eq/yr fraction growth rate Buildings % Transport % Industry % Other ? Total ? Houghton (2003) Global Warming, Table 11.4 Numbers for 1990

24 Energy Alternatives: Hoffert analysis current situation: global, primary energy production is 12 TW (i.e. 12 * Watts) 85% from fossil fuels need: to stabilize CO2 at 550 ppm (double pre-industrial) and accommodate rising population and economic progress need TW emission-free energy by 2050 solutions: improving efficiency renewable (esp. wind) carbon sequestration nuclear fission nuclear fussion a few TW, safe, feasible, immediate technically feasible, safe technically feasible, probably safe a few TW, dangerous, feasible, immediate? (feasibility not yet demonstrated) Hoffert et al (2002), Science, 298, (pdf on class website)

25 Energy Alternatives: Carbon Capture & Storage Hoffert et al., Science, 2002, 298, 981-

26 Energy Alternatives: Space Possibilities Hoffert et al., Science, 2002, 298, 981-

27 Renewables Houghton (2003) Global Warming, Table 11.6

28 Renewables: Wind and Solar Houghton (2003) Global Warming, Table 11.6 Wind Solar PV Rate of increase (%/yr) ~30 ~30 Energy Production, 1998 (GW) Energy Production, 1998 (TW) Energy Cost, 1999 ($/kwh) Potential Future Energy Cost ($/kwh) Crude Oil $/barrel $/kwhr

29 Crude Oil Prices $/barrel $/kw-hr source: 26 May 2008 price as of May 26, 2008: $132/barrel = $3.42/gallon

30 Energy Options: Solar "because of its simplicity, convenience and cleanliness, it is expected that electricity from solar PV sources will become one of the largest - if not the largest - of the world's energy sources." John Houghton (2003) Global Warming

31 >> Efficiency/conservation: example of Denmark

32 Example of Denmark 1970: imports almost all oil and energy 1973: OPEC oil embargo, severe recession, drastic emergency measures like banning driving on Sundays today: energy independent (actually exports both oil and electricity) energy use per capita half that in U.S. yet: very low unemployment, very high standard of living HOW??? - 30 year, aggressive, government-led effort beginning in develop renewable energy from wind - explore for oil and natural gas in North Sea - aggressive program of energy conservation high and steadily rising taxes on cars and energy use district heating system building codes to conserve heat incentives to purchase energy-efficient appliances Source: "How Denmark Paved Way To Energy Independence," Leila Abboud, Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2007

33 Example of Denmark: Structural Differences "U.S. policy makers and businesses have resisted the type of aggressive intervention and regulation behind Denmark's successes..." "But in Denmark, much of the country's energy sector is in the hands of nonprofit cooperatives, with residents as shareholders, which makes it easier for government to direct policy with little opposition from business interests." Source: "How Denmark Paved Way To Energy Independence," Leila Abboud, Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2007

34 District Heating massive project; took over a decade tear up streets to install underground piping replace old system of 15 big power plants for the entire country with new system of hundreds of small power plants, close to neighborhoods so hot water only has to travel short distances 60% of homes now use district heating accounts for ~50% of home energy savings district heating system (hot water pipes) Source: "How Denmark Paved Way To Energy Independence," Leila Abboud, Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2007

35 Wind Energy: Aesthetics Coal-fired power plant Wind farm, coast of Denmark Wind trees? (conceptual)