A QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH IN AN INTEGRATED COLD CHAIN SYSTEM ENSURING OPTIMAL SAFETY AND RELIABILITY FOR INDIAN AGRARIAN MARKET

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1 A QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH IN AN INTEGRATED COLD CHAIN SYSTEM ENSURING OPTIMAL SAFETY AND RELIABILITY FOR INDIAN AGRARIAN MARKET Gourab Chatterjee 1, Debashish Bhattacharya 2 1 Assistat Professor, Departmet of Food Techology, Haldia Istitute of Techology, West Begal, Idia 2 B.Tech Studet, Departmet of Food Techology, Haldia Istitute of Techology, West Begal, Idia Abstract Idia has a agraria ecoomy. More tha 52% of it's lad is egaged i cultivatio ad with varyig demography across the legth ad breadth of the atio, Idia has oe of the most diverse vegetative portfolio. Each gere of produce has limits to the timetemperature abuse it ca withstad beyod which deterioratio starts from withi which may ot be apparet. We preset a logistic model which esures easy quality maagemet of food produce emphasizig o optimizatio of produce quality ad miimizatio of wastage ad spoilage. The model deals with specific products ad their relatioship with stadard tolerace levels to temperature abuse patters alog with measures to miimize them. We use the basic priciples of Hazard Aalysis Critical Cotrol Poits (HACCP) i syc with operatioal pre-requisite programs to devise a robust system helpig us achieve the desired level of optimizatio. Based o the Hub ad Spoke model for freight trasfer, this model focuses of two fudametal parameters, distace betwee the poit of cultivatio to the poit of sale ad time take to traverse that distace maitaiig the required time-temperature combiatios. The algorithm emphasizes o acquirig data that ca be utilized to predict a problem ad assessmet of risk before it occurs. This itervetio ca be made to mitigate product issues resultig cost impacts usig the hype cycle for food supply chai. The system is iteded to moitor produce temperature history, chai of custody ad helpig to esure that a food is safe ad effective throughout the supply chai whe reachig its iteded cosumer. Keywords: Cold chai, traceability, HACCP, Critical Cotrol Poit, hype cycle *** INTRODUCTION A cold chai, beig a temperature-cotrolled supply chai etwork with storage ad distributio beig carried out i a maer that the temperature of a product is maitaied i a specified rage, for keepig it fresh ad edible with much loger period tha i ormal ambiet coditios. This system facilitates log- distace trasport of various products as well as makes seasoal products available over the etire year. Establishig a cold supply chai i Idia is a log shot. The existig system is scattered ad fragmeted. This paper attempts to suggest bridgig the gap betwee the existig system ad the system it should be. The emergig techologies caot be implemeted uless a robust chai already exists. If techology is implemeted i the curret sceario, maufacturers will ot oly face moetary loss but the brad may also get diluted. I a agraria structure, icorporatig safety ad esurig comprehesive growth of the system, OPRP charts may be used to weigh multiple paths i betwee two poits, to gauge ot oly the shortest but also the safest path. We use the Hub ad Spoke model as the basis of the Cob Web structure we propose. The hub ad spoke model has a cetral hub coected with multiple supply poits, the spokes. I this paper, we propose symmetry i the Hub ad spoke model. I order to idetify the drivers ad challeges for the cold chai idustry i Idia, it would be helpful to visualize what a typical cold chai etwork looks like. The cold chai etwork for fruits ad vegetables is ot much differet from the etwork required for cosumer perishables like milk ad pharmaceuticals. I a cold chai, there are two mai elemets of the cold chai logistics system: (a) Surface storage: Storage of products i refrigerated warehouses. (b) Refrigerated trasportatio: Perishable products are trasported i reefers, refrigerated vas or railway carriages. A cold chai logistics player may be a cold storage ower or ower of a fleet of reefers, or more commoly, a itegrated 3PL firm that ows the etire etwork from procuremet to the fial destiatio of the produce. The followig are the steps of a cold chai etwork: i) The first stage is the field where the fruits ad vegetables are grow ad the procured by the retailer. ii) The produce is subsequetly brought to a pre-coolig uit, located i the viciity of the productio zoe. Pre-coolig operatio, carried out withi a short period after harvestig, Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, 103

2 prepares the fruit or vegetable for trasportatio over log distaces. iii) Reefer trucks are used to trasport the produce at cotrolled parameters from the pre-coolig uit to the cold storage. The size of these trucks geerally varies from oe to more tha 15 toes. iv) Cold storages are cetrally located to cater to multiple productio zoes ad pre-coolig uits. Depedig o factor time, that beig how logs the product eeds to be stored ad the directio it is headig to, the produce is stored at a cotrolled atmosphere. This slows dow the ripeig process of the produce ehacig its shelf life. v) The produce is the take to a processig plat, where it is processed further. 2. HUB AND SPOKE PARADIGM The hub ad spoke distributio paradigm resembles a set of coectios arraged as the spokes ad the wheel [1,3]. A cetral Table 1 HACCP chart for food supply chai CCP HAZARD LIMIT WEIGHT Purchasig & Checkig Loadig & Hadlig Storig Trasport & Distributio Sortig Processig Raw material quality Icreasig microbial load Cross cotamiatio Workig coditios Biochemical cotamiatio Chemical cotamiatio Natioal stadard Workig hygiee storage Natioal storage stadards & 20% 15% 15% Real time 10% temperature cotrol system Expertise of professioal Natioal stadards 10% 20% 3. COBWEB PARADIGM I this model, we deal with a cetral hub which may be a Precoolig ceter or a cold store. The idividual farmers or idepedet growers form the other ed of the spoke iitially i its iitial stage. Fig 1 The itercoected hub ad spoke structure jucture jois several odes sigifyig efficiecy i trasportatio. The system has several beefits as well as disadvatages but is most likely solutio to build a successful cold chai system for the Idia agraria ecoomy. this model, we deal with a cetral hub which may be a Pre-coolig ceter or a cold store. The idividual farmers or idepedet growers form the other ed of the spoke iitially i its iitial stage. Our propositio of the CobWeb structure ivolves implemetatio of HACCP at each poit i the supply chai, mappig the chai of custody with probable hazards ad weighig them accordig to risks. Fially, we use Dijkstra's algorithm to figure out the most efficiet path. To achieve safety ad high efficiecy of food cold chai system, it shall take ito accout of two aspects of restraits whe allocate safety reliability: First, the safety costrait, i.e. uder the coditio of give iitial safety reliability, Secod, the cost restrait. Fig 2 The pre coolig uit [PCF] coected with six uique farmers or poit of productio 3.1 Sigle Hub Assigmet Pre-Coolig Facility [PCF] acts as the hub ad idividual farmers [F1,F2,F3...F] act as the primary producers actig at the bottom of the supply chai. For a etwork of odes, there will always be -1 umber of routes to coect all odes to the cetral hub with a complexity of O(). Assumig the eed to trasfer commodities betwee idividual producers, Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, 104

3 the bulk amout of two or more producers are trasported to the cetral hub makig the system stable, maitaiig same profit level. This compares favorably to the (-1)/2 routes or complexity of O(2) that would be required to coect each ode to every other ode i a poit to poit etwork. With icrease i umber of spokes, they ca idividually form aother spoke ad hub model. With each icreasig producer, the model becomes more efficiet with idividual wheels joiig to form a bigger circle. Joiig idividual poits, the least distace betwee the farthest idividual producers ca be figured out ad liked to the pre-coolig uit. 3.2 Multiple Hub Assigmet The Pre-Coolig Facility [PCF] ow becomes the ed of the spoke ad the Cold Store [CS] facility acts as the hub. The complexity ad efficiecy remaiig the same, the cold stores ca be liked ad a etwork ca be established. The model beig flexible, allows umber of idividual producers, umber of Pre-Coolig facilities ad umber of cold store facilities. Fig 3 Icreasig the umber of supply poits alog a path I the above figure, F6, F7 ad F8 ship their idividual bulk to the earest idividual producer, F1.. A reefer or a suitable carrier the ships the bulk to the pre- coolig uit. Iterestigly, with icrease i umber of players or idividual suppliers, the grid becomes more profitable. Small umber of prime routes reduces the trasportatio cost ad icreases efficiecy. Complicated operatios like quality assurace, packagig ad sortig ca be doe at the hub ad ot the farms. This will esure uiformity of the packaged goods ad esure good returs to idividual producers. The model below shows idividual producers formig yet aother cobweb ad joiig with a previous structure with a cetralized pre coolig uit. A cetral carrier picks up bulk commodity from four idividual producers ad trasports it to the pre-coolig facility. The idividual trasportatio i betwee the producers become more efficiet with icrease i the umber of producers. The spoke eds beig simple, ca be added or deleted with ease without disturbig the complexity of idividual routes. Fig 4 Successive formatio of cobwebs by idividual suppliers creatig a mesh structure Fig 5 The pre coolig uits formig spokes i the cobweb while the cetral coolig uit formig the hub 4. PROBABLE SHORTCOMINGS Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, A cetralized system makes day to day operatios iflexible. Ay chage i a hub may result i a etirely differet route which may make the operatios impossible to be hadled i case of uusually high demad i betwee spokes. The hub should ever be starved. So the route schedulig becomes tougher. Precise traffic schedulig ad timig are required to get desired results. The cetral hub acts as a limitatio. Total cargo capacity of the etire etwork o oe sigle hub. Ay aomaly i hub ca result i a shift throughout the supply chai. The hub is the commo poit of cotact betwee ay two spokes. Arrivig at hub is the ecessary coditio before produce ca be exchaged betwee ay two spokes fulfillig ay requiremet. Hece miimum of two trips is required for trasit of goods betwee ay two hubs.

4 5. METHODOLOGY The etire trasportatio chai from origi to destiatio has bee divided ito three parts: The collectio part (Origi or supply major) A iterior hub part (trasit fried or the α factor) Distributio part (destiatio or demad major) The simplest way to esure a safe trasit is to express factor with respect to time. Where k is the umber of pickup/rest poits eroute to destiatio. Also C = The trasportatio cost of reefer per uit time t abk = The travel time of the reefer i route sectio (V a, V b ) t abk =t bak x abk = {1 if the reefer passes through sectio (V a, V b ) else 0} x abk a0 1 (b=0,1 ); a b (3) x abk a0 1 (k=1.m); a b (4) x abk x abk b1 b1 1 (a=0, k=0,1 m) (5) m b e b b (6) Fig 6 Trasit test path The followig poits whe dimiished will result i icreased time ad risk optimizatio. Volume / Bulk of trasport (B) Time which it ormally takes to reach the destiatio Time which it would take if α is icreased or chaged due the dyamism of system (X ) AD Thus for multiple hub assigmet, miimizig the followig variables gives us the optimized structure: T AD = T AB + α (T BC + T CD ) (1) I a multiple hub system, takig umber of reefers k departig from origi a util it leavig the ext distributio site b to be a cold chai logistics uit Xab, whose distributio time icludes the travel time from distributio site a to b t c ab ad the process time at site b (cotaiig loadig ad uloadig time, receivig time ad meal time) t d bk: t abk = t abk c + t d bk Fresh food requires high timeliess that have to limit its distributio with time. Here, we ited to apply time costrait, cosequetly the costrait m b e b b (where m b is the umber of pre coolig uits ad e b is the arrival time of vehicle at the customer b) are cosidered for optimizatio model. The food distributio routig optimizatio model with time ad load is as follows: m k1 b0 x abk m (i=0) (7) Equatio (3) : Multiple reefers may be used but every retail jucture will be serviced just oce Equatio (4): Sigle reefer will serve all retail juctures Equatio (5): Displacemet of every reefer is zero, they start ad come back to the same spot Equatio (6): Every reefer falls withi the purview of safety ad timeliess Equatio (7): Number of reefers leavig V 0 caot exceed the total umber of reefers 6. TRANSIT PROTOTYPES A rage of cobweb formats ca be formulated keepig i mid decisive factors as maagemet simplicity, availability of cheap labour, demography etc. Their key characteristics, goverace mechaism are explored. 6.1 Multiple Spoke Service Model The hub has dedicated spokes servicig it. The hub s is to set the quality ad performace bechmarks, mitigatig risks, thus esurig spokes comply with stadards. The spokes act as supply poits ad ivetory cotrol largely lies withi the hub. m MiY c a0 b0 k1 t abk x ajk (2) Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, 106

5 Suitable Applicatio This sceario typically observed whe the spoke has the ecessary resources to support oe critical demad. A example of this competecy could be supply of specific geres of magoes to atioal hubs from Nagpur ode or supply of apples from Sriagar ode. Fig 7.Multiple spoke service model Goverace Mechaism The ivetory cotrol lies at the dedicated hub while spokes esure regulatory compliace followig regioal rules i which they are located. I operatios, the Hub takes decisios o supply allocatio ad delegates it to the spokes. Suitable Applicatio This model is best suited whe spokes are situated i locatios havig a specific value propositio which could be low-cost, cultural affiity or agricultural produce which is useful for a particular hub oly ad ot others. This model could be applied with tier - III, IV cities actig as spokes with tier-i, II cities beig the hubs. 6.2 Sigle Spoke Service Model This model ivolves presece of a Spoke i a geographic locatio caterig to the multiple Hubs across the atio. The Spokes would hadle specific set of requests ad demads i their area of specializatio from the Hubs caterig to their respective customer base. 6.3 Multi Spoke Multi Hub Service Model This model has hubs with multiple shared spokes servig them. Each hub has a etwork of spokes while each spoke serve multiple hubs. Spokes have iterally dedicated supplies to cater to its hubs. Fig 9 Multi spoke multi hub service model Goverace Mechaism Spokes report to multiple hubs, there would be a thi maagerial layer hadlig the overall operatios of the spokes as it requires some degree of coordiatio ad quality maagemet is carried out at the hubs. Suitable Sceario A spoke is shared whe it fuctios as a pivotal delivery/ supply poit that support multiple deliveries/supplies alog demad cetres. This model is best suited whe spokes have supplies which maybe a commo requiremet at more tha oe hub, for example, Nellore ad Nagpur sharig equal mago productio ad supplyig to rest of Idia. Goverace Mechaism Fig 8 Sigle spoke service Model The spoke has a separate layer ivolved i maagig the day to day operatios. It has i its discretio prioritizig its work accordig to demads received from differet hubs. This model to some extet madates some degree of coordiatio betwee the spoke ad hubs. 7. DESIGNATING HUBS AND SPOKES 7.1 Weighig the Path There may be multiple pathways i betwee the demad ad supply. We use the operatioal pre requisite programs [OPRPs] to weight each idividual path depedig o the parameters i that path ad form a weighted graph. Usig moder trackig techologies, we ca have cotrolled atmosphere reefers which have temperature probes ad ay deviatio from the mea will trigger a alarm ad the driver as well as the cotrol cetre will be iformed. The severity ad likelihood may be determied by the freight cotroller depedig o the cotrollig factors like the time-temp combiatio, shelf life ad the relative humidity. Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, 107

6 α/γ Severity Likelihood Score Temp-Time combiatio X Y XY Shelf Life A B AB Relative Humidity C D CD I a diverse agroomy like that of Idia, each differet climatic coditios i differet parts, fruits ad vegetable productio is scattered throughout the coutry. The demad however is more or less equal i every part of the atio. As a example, West Begal raks first i productio of Pieapples whereas Adhra Pradesh raks first i productio of Tomatoes. The demad for tomatoes is more or less equal i every part of the atio. 7.2 Most Efficiet Path Oce, the score has bee settled o every path, the path ca be weighted based o the scores ad a weighted di graph ca be obtaied. Applyig the Dijkstra's algorithm o the weighted di graph, we may obtai the least weight path ad hece the most efficiet oe. Fig 10 Weighted paths Assumig more or less equal demad for some high demad produce, we may assig hubs ad spoke desigatio to areas depedig o productivity. The spokes eed to be weighted depedig o prime factors affectig the ease of trasportatio. The factors may iclude availability of reefers, the bulk amout to be trasported, cosumer demad or the political stability. Table-2: Dijkstra's algorithm V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V CONCLUSIONS Esurig quality ad safety of the produce is the most challegig ad vital part i its jourey from farm to fork. Implemetig techology, certificatios will work towards a safer food ad profitable returs for the producers. Curretly, Idia still employs crude methods of trackig ad maitais maual database of goods trasported. Usig the Hype cycle for food techology i the curret sceario, we ca spot the most efficiet ad up to date techology that is stable ad will give higher rate of returs evetually. Establishig a cold supply chai i Idia is a log shot. The existig system is scattered ad fragmeted. This paper attempts to suggest bridgig the gap betwee the existig system ad the system it should be. The emergig techologies caot be implemeted uless a robust chai already exists. If techology is implemeted i the curret sceario, maufacturers will ot oly face moetary loss but brad may also get diluted. The techologies presetly used globally caot be replicated i the Idia sceario due to the fragmeted system existig i the coutry. The pre-coolig uits eed to be modified depedig o the type of fruit ad vegetable, the variety ad the amout. Majority of the cold warehouses have same facilities irrespective of the commodity stored. Geerally, the warehouses are of a specified Capacity irrespective of the amout of commodity stored. These factors make the storage costly. Customized supply chai eeds to be implemeted as majority of the farmers do ot have bulk amout to be trasported to the pre coolig uits directly. We propose desigig a commuity coolig uit with very low capacity (<10 toe) setup for every 50 farmers. The uits may be ecofriedly with solar paels. The farmers ca stock their produce till the store reaches its capacity ad the a bulk ca be trasported to the pre-coolig facility. The itercoected hubs [poit to poit] ad the spokes adherig to their respective hubs if implemeted throughout the atio will resemble a multiple hub ad spoke model [Fig.11] with multiple spokes caterig to multiple hubs. I the first phase, idividual hubs eed to be created aliged to the spokes such that the spokes ca efficietly coected to each other ad the to the hub. Differet hub based o the target area, the productio ad yield, hubs may be created with the prime districts actig as spokes. I the secod phase idividual hubs will get coected usig a poit to poit etwork [P2P] ad thus two distict hubs with umber of spokes each have a free flow withi the grid. A atiowide distributio of hubs ad spokes will resemble the Fig. 14 with odes beig primary hubs ad costituets beig ed of spokes. Sigals are placed strategically i betwee coectios to assure quality of Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, 108

7 trasported produce. They also act as a safe poit i case of breakdow at ay jucture, traffic ca be diverted through the sigals to the ext earest hub. Fig 11 A cobweb model with i hubs Implemetig the hub ad spoke model with quality checks at sigals, will esure a smooth flow of produce from the poit of productio to the cosumers. Each path is weighed o the basis of the followig parameters: Itegratio of resources to provide a cosistet customer experiece across Spokes throughout the coutry. Complex trasitio maagemet processes. Navigatig the regulatory regimes across Spoke locatios ted to be complex. REFERENCES [1]. ABDINNOUR-HELM S A hybrid heuristic for the ucapacitated hub locatio problem. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research,2-3(106): [2]. ABDINNOUR-HELM S Usig simulated aealig to solve the p-hub media problem. Iteratioal Joural of Physical Distributio & Logistics Maagemet, 31(3): [3]. ABDINNOUR-HELM S & VENKATARAMANAN MA Solutio approaches to hub locatio problems. Aals of Operatios Research, 78: [4]. ADJIMAN CS, ANDROULAKIS IP & FLOUDAS CA Global optimizatio of MINLP problems i process sythesis ad desig.computers & Chemical Egieerig, 21(Suppl. S): S445-S450. [5]. ALUMUR SA & KARA BY Network hub locatio problems: The state of the art. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research, 190: [6]. ALUMUR SA, KARA BY & KARASAN OE The desig of sigle allocatio icomplete hub etworks. rasportatio Research Part B, 43: [7]. AYKIN T Lagragia relaxatio based approaches to capacitated hub-ad-spoke etworkdesig problem. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research, 79: [8]. AYKIN T Network policies for hub-ad-spoke systems with applicatios to the air trasportatio system. Trasportatio Sciece,29: [9]. BENDERS JF Partitioig procedures for solvig mixed-variables programmig problems. Numerisch Mathematik, 4: [10]. CAMARGO RS, MIRANDA JR G DE & LUNA HP Beders decompositio for the ucapacitated multiple allocatio hub locatio problem. Computers ad Operatios Research, 35: [11]. CAMARGO RS, MIRANDA JR G DE, FERREIRA R & LUNA HP Multiple allocatio hub-ad-spoke etwork desig uder hub cogestio. Computers ad Operatios Research, 36: [12]. CAMARGO RS, MIRANDA JR G DE & LUNA HP Beders decompositio for hub locatio problems with ecoomies of scale.trasportatio Sciece, 43: [13]. CAMARGO RS, MIRANDA JR G DE & FERREIRA RPM A hybrid outer-approximatio/beders decompositio algorithm for the sigle allocatio hub locatio problem uder cogestio. Operatios Research Letters, 39(5): [14]. CAMPBELL JF Iteger programmig formulatios of discrete hub locatio problems. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research,72: [15]. CAMPBELL JF A survey of etwork hub locatio. Studies i Locatioal Aalysis, 6: [16]. CAMPBELL JF, ERNST AT & KRISHNAMOORTHY M Hub locatio problems. I: Drezer Z ad Hamacher HW (editors), Facility Locatio: Applicatios ad Theory, chapter 12, pages Spriger, 1st editio. [17]. CHEN JF A hybrid heuristic for the ucapacitated sigle allocatio hub locatio problem. Omega, 35: [18]. CONTRERAS I, FERNANDEZ E & MARN A The tree of hubs locatio problem. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research, 202: [19]. CORDEAU JF, SOUMIS F & DESROSIERS J Simultaeous assigmet of locomotives ad cars to passeger trais. Operatios Research, 49(4): [20]. COSTA M DA G, CAPTIVO ME & CLÍMACO J Capacitated sigle allocatio hub locatio problema bi-criteria approach.computers ad Operatios Research, 35(11): [21]. CUNHA CB & SILVA MR A geetic algorithm for the problem of cofigurig a hub-ad-spoke etwork for a LTL truckig compay i Brazil. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research, 179: [22]. DESAI J & SEN S A global optimizatio algorithm for reliable etwork desig. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research,200(1): 1-8. Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, 109

8 [23]. DURAN MA & GROSSMANN IE A outerapproximatio algorithm for a claar of mixed-iteger oliear programs.mathematical Programmig, 36: 307. [24]. EBERY J Solvig large sigle allocatio p-hub problems with two or three hubs. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research,128(2): [25]. EBERY J, KRISHNAMOORTHY M, ERNST A & BOLAND N The capacitated multipleallocatio hub locatio problema: Formulatios ad algorithms. Europea Joural of Operatioal Research, 120: BIOGRAPHIES Gourab Chatterjee Workig as a Assistat Professor i the Departmet of Food Techology, Haldia Istitute of Techology. Area of iterest icludes i Novel extractio techiques for phytochemicals, Modelig ad optimizatio of batch fermetatio processes, Food safety ad cold chai maagemet. Debashish Bhattacharya, A egieerig udergraduate at the Departmet of Food Techology, Haldia Istitute of Techology, his area of iterest icludes Mathematical modelig of food processes ad formulatio of eutraceuticals Volume: 03 Issue: 04 Apr-2014, 110