Future Transport of Goods

Transcription

1 Future Transport of Goods Scenarios for Europe s future transport of goods in the Baltic Region COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE F R FUTURES STUDIES Nov 2002

2 Contents The Challenge Europe in the Future Western Europe Central Europe and the Baltic Russia Collapse in Traffic Transport of goods in Europe Traffic Infrastructure in Europe Environmental impact Collapse in Traffic Future GDP and Transport of Goods New Intermodal Traffic System Intermodality Intermodal Junctions Intermodality in Europe Prepared in dialogue with Scandlines by: Kåre Stamer Andreasen Søren Jensen Uffe Palludan Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Nørre Farimagsgade 65 DK-1364 Copenhagen K Tel: iff@iff.dk Photos: Baunbaek, Niels Front page and page 1 Second edition Nov This report has been prepared by the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies. The Institute is an independent privately financed research institution. The objective of the institute is to improve the basis for strategic decisions in private and public organisations. Since the beginning of the 90 s, the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies has helped influence future traffic planning. The research of the Institute is developed concurrently with active participation in traffic projects. The Institute s research in traffic and intermodal junctions has lead to the present cooperation with Scandlines.

3 The Challenge Today, Europe has a historic opportunity to ensure peace and prosperity through cooperation. However, the continent s future intra-trade, integration and environment are threatened by a breakdown of traffic. Parts of Europe, especially Germany, are already congested by traffic. Therefore, it is necessary to create a future-oriented traffic system. The traffic in Western Europe is predominantly north-south-oriented. Infrastructure for handling the future transport of goods between East and West is inadequate. However, parts of the future east-westbound transport of goods can be handled efficiently by a combination of different transport methods and alternative routes. This will establish the preconditions for improved and sustainable growth in the new Europe. The traffic planning of the Baltic may contribute positively to the development and integration of Europe. The Baltic may become the freight corridor for a part of the east-westbound transport of goods. The hinterland for the Baltic transport of goods includes several of the great economies in Europe - either by a direct coastline to the Baltic or by a connection with the European trade flows. At Fehmarn Belt the north-southbound traffic flows cross the Baltic east-westbound transport routes. A possible future Fehmarn Belt bridge combined with an east-westbound "blue motorway" may therefore become one of the future traffic junctions for the European transport of goods. Firstly, it should be established that traffic planning can create a certain basis for new production and intra-trade by eliminating bottlenecks. Another important point is that traffic planning can be an effective regional political control instrument. It is necessary to ensure that future transport systems will be environmentally and economically sustainable. Transport of goods by ship and rail are the most environmentally friendly methods of long-distance transport of goods whereas transport by road is often more suitable for short distances. An integration of these three transport systems is a prerequisite for solving future traffic problems. The integration of transport systems is not natural today. Intermodal Junctions The different means of transport can be integrated so as to make it possible to choose and combine the means of transport which are optimal in the given situation. This can be ensured through an expansion of intermodal junctions and a standardisation of the goods handling. Intermodal junctions develop where traffic flows cross and means of transport meet. Reloading between the different means of transport, e.g. between train, lorry and ship, takes place at intermodal junctions. Smooth intermodal junctions create synergy between the different means of transport and ensure the cheapest, quickest and most environmental transport of goods. The prerequisite for efficiently functioning intermodal junctions is well-developed logistics and organisation. Furthermore, the necessary infrastructure must be built and a number of standards for the handling of goods must be established. 1

4 Europe in the Future The Nordic Countries Planning on the basis of forecasts is based on projections of yesterday s structure and development. This method presupposes a continuous development of society. However, the development of society is far from continuous: Trend breaks occur and structures change. Planning should be made in acknowledgement of the fact that the future is not given, but can be influenced towards a desired direction. In particular, traffic planning can establish new preconditions which change the development. Thereby, the planning of tomorrow s transport of goods and infrastructure can be made in accordance with future demands. In the following, scenarios for the development of Europe and the Baltic for the next 15 years are outlined. Western Europe In 2000 the GDP of Western Europe amounted to USD 9,238 bn. That was more than 1/5 of the world s total GDP. (All the GDP s in this report are in terms of purchasing power parity.) The Western European economic growth rates have been between 1.5% and 3.5% annually for the past 10 years. Up to the year 2015 the present EU countries can expect moderate growth rates of 2-3% annually. However, the increasing integration and distribution of work in the EU make it likely that the growth in intra-trade and transport of goods will continue the considerable growth rates of the 1980 s and 1990 s. This presupposes, however, that large bottlenecks are avoided. Germany Germany is Europe s largest economy and the largest trading partner for the other 14 EU countries. Assuming growth in the new EU countries, Germany will, with its location, strengthen its position even more as the economic centre of gravity in the EU. The country borders on 9 European countries which has already caused traffic congestion in several parts of the country due to the extensive intra-trade. Germany is Europe s large exporter of investment goods. During a favourable economic development in which considerable investments in the new EU countries as well as Russia s production facilities can be expected, Germany s economy will therefore benefit from this at an earlier stage than other economies. The Nordic economies are integrated with the other Western European economies to such an extent that their development cannot be expected to deviate considerably from the European economy as a whole. However, the location of the Nordic countries means that, as e.g. Austria, they can benefit in particular from the development in Central Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS. During the past years, trading with the other Baltic countries has grown considerably, which is a development that can be expected to continue. Especially important is the formation of an integrated Sound region. Here, the metropolitan centre of future is developing with more than 3 m inhabitants. Norway is a Nordic exception because of the great importance of the oil. When it comes to oil, the Norwegian economy will share the same fate as other great oil producers. Central Europe and the Baltic Countries Central Europe includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Central Europe and the Baltic countries has a total GDP of USD 710bn., which is less than Spain s GDP today. The countries GDP has, however, experienced higher economic growth rates than Western Europe during the past years. Already today, Central Europe s and the Baltic countries foreign trade is dominated by the trading with Western Europe. However, trading remains low due to, among other factors the relatively low production and prosperity in these countries. Within the next years, the trade volume is expected to increase heavily as a result of increased prosperity and participation in Europe s future distribution of work, but the trade pattern cannot be expected to undergo great changes. It can be expected that in time, the economies in the newly acceded countries to the EU will adjust to the Western European level. The populations are relatively well-educated and the production facilities are undergoing reorganisation and modernisation. A favourable likely scenario is economic growth rates of 5-6% annually. As a result of the participation in the international distribution of work and the integration in the EU, their trade and transport will grow considerably faster than GDP. Several of the countries foreign trade and internal EU trade may experience two-figured growth rates annually. It can be expected that Central Europe and the Baltic countries will experience salary increases and an adjustment to higher environmental and labour market standards. Thus, a part of the labour intensive production will be transferred to Russia and other EU areas nearby. 2

5 The Baltic Countries The Baltic countries total GDP amounts to less than USD 60bn. which corresponds to 1/3 of Sweden s GDP. The Baltic countries GDP has had fluctuating growth rates, but on average it has increased by more than 5% annually for the past years. With the Baltic countries integration into the EU, the growth rates in GDP are estimated to be 5-7% for the coming years. Foreign trade can be expected to increase by 7-10% annually. The economy of Estonia has undergone restructuring and today the private sector is responsible for 3/4 of GDP. The service sector has increased to a total of 2/3 of GDP, but this industry has the largest growth rates. From 1997 to 2001 Estonia s export of goods has increased by 84% and the import of goods has increased by 52%. Estonia s foreign trade is dominated by the Nordic countries. Estonia differs from the other Baltic countries in that 1/3 of exports and imports involve manufacturing equipment. Latvia s primary and secondary sector s share of the economy has decreased, whereas the service sector, which has experienced considerable growth, today is responsible for more than 70% of GDP. Transport and communication are of great importance to the economy. Latvia s foreign trade has increased by more than 1/3 from 1997 to More than half of Latvia s foreign trade is with the EU. At the same time as Latvia s trading has changed from east to west, exports of manufactured articles have been replaced by exports of raw materials and semi-manufactured articles. Imports are dominated by manufacturing equipment. Lithuania s service sector has increased to a total of 60% of GDP. A result of Lithuania s location bordering on Poland, Latvia, Kaliningrad, Belarus and the Baltic is the considerable importance of transport in the service sector. Lithuania s trading with the EU amounts to almost half of the country s exports and imports. A large part of the remaining trading is made with Central European countries as well as the Baltic countries and CIS. Poland Poland s GDP increased by 6% annually during the years Since then the GDP has increased by more than 4% annually. In 2000 Poland s GDP amounted to USD 328bn. A favourable scenario for Poland s economic growth rate is estimated at 4-5% for the coming years, by which Poland s GDP will be doubled in 15 years. More than three quarters of Poland s imports and exports consist of trading with manufactured articles. A total of 90% of Poland s foreign trade is made with other European countries including Russia. For the coming years, a growth rate of 6-7% in Poland s foreign trade can be expected. The growth in Poland s transport of goods will be higher due to goods in transit. Russia In 2001 the GDP of Russia was approx. USD 1,120bn. which is practically the same as the total GDP of the CIS, the Baltic countries and Central Europe. From 1999 until 2002 the economic development has been very favourable with real growth rates of 5-9%. More than 40% of Russia s exports are made to Western Europe whereas 20% of imports originate in Western Europe. Exports are dominated by energy and raw materials and imports are predominantly manufactures. Russia has implemented a number of economic, political and administrative reforms for the past 10 years. A restructuring of the production and changes in the production facilities has taken place and Russian economy can be trusted once again. For the next 15 years, the geopolitical developments may make Russia and the West strategic partners. Russia and the Western world may be integrated, but that will require political will and courage in the EU and Russia as well as expansion of the necessary infrastructure. If the necessary preconditions are made available, and Russia is not exposed to large external and internal shock effects, it is reasonable to expect that Russia s GDP will increase by 5-8% annually for the next few years. This will lead to a GDP in 2015 which is 2-3 times as large as in An important precondition for the above-mentioned development is that the necessary infrastructure for future trading with the EU is established. For countries which participate in regional and international distribution of work, the growth in trade is bigger than the growth in GDP. With the above-mentioned expected growth in GDP this may result in a growth in the value of Russia s foreign trade of 7-10%. Trading with the EU can, however, become even more extensive if the present 40% of trading with the EU increase to 60-70% of Russia s foreign trade. Russia is still in the middle of an extensive reform process in many parts of society. A changed production structure is to be expected in 15 years involving more manufactures more high technology, changed agricultural structure, etc. Extensive changes in the trading pattern can also be expected in terms of more trading with the West and growing exports of consumer goods and other manufactured articles. However for a number of years, raw materials will probably dominate exports with regard to volumes, but much of the energy transport will be by pipeline. The development of domestic and foreign investments will be of great importance. If large investments are made Russia s foreign trade will be able to go from a middle scenario to a high growth scenario with two-figured growth rates for a while. 3

6 Russia s Transport of Goods Russia s domestic transport of goods is predominantly east-westbound. Approx. 90% of the domestic transport of goods is done by rail. Just a little more than 2% is done by river transport as the large Russian rivers are north-southbound and only navigable part of the year. Russia s physical geography is not conducive to the extension of roads for long-distance transport of goods. Russia s railway network is long and extensive, but it lacks maintenance. The railway has a different track gauge than the West-European railways, so for free transport of goods over the borders to be possible it is necessary to think intermodally. For physical geographic reasons as well as historic reasons, Russia is the natural connection between Russia s Domestic Transport of Goods the EU, Caucasus and Central Asia. Therefore, it might be expected that much transport of goods in transit will pass through Russia to and from these areas. Kaliningrad With the enlargement of the EU to the east, Kaliningrad will undoubtedly be on the political agenda. Traffic policy can be an efficient regional political control instrument which can create economic growth in Kaliningrad and expand the political relationship between Russia and the EU. Kaliningrad might develop into a general intermodal junction for the future east-west transport of goods in the new Europe, but of course that presupposes some sort of separate agreement with the EU. The harbour of Kaliningrad could be appointed a Arkhangel'sk 1400 STOCKHOLM HELSINKI TALLINN St Petersburg 650 km 1156 km BERLIN Gdañsk Kaliningrad WARSAW RÌGA VILNIUS PRAGUE VIENNA BUDAPEST ZAGREB LJUBLJANA BELGRADE SARAJEVO SOFIA MINSK BUCHAREST 1333 km KIEV Vladivostock 7806 km MOSCOW 1153 km Novorossiysk Bn tons/km year Source: Goskomstat of Russia Rail Road Domestic ship Air future junction. A possible scenario could be that Baltijsk is given the status of free port, where transit goods is not cleared through customs. Furthermore, the production of Kaliningrad could be given special favourable trade terms for exports to the EU countries. This would probably result in large foreign investments in production, trade and infrastructure. With its central geographical location in the Baltic, Kaliningrad has good possibilities for developing into a transport junction. It would then be an ideal place for companies to locate themselves. Then Kaliningrad can develop into an economically well-functioning centre and junction in the Baltic region. Reloading for further transport of goods to and from Poland, the Baltic countries, Russia and Belarus can take place here. Further transport can, depending on distance and destination, be made by ship, rail, river transport, lorry or air. 4

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8 Transport of Goods in Europe The main part of the European transport of goods takes place within Western Europe. In the period the volume of Western Europe s exports and imports increased by 6% annually. The volume of Western Europe s exports and imports reached two-figured growth rates in The export of goods from Central and Eastern. Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries is low compared to that of Western Europe. However, the volume of the export and import of goods increased considerably during the extensive changeover from planned economy towards market economy in the 1990 s. Thus the volume of exports and imports of goods increased by 7% European Transport of Goods Source: WTO From To Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS European transport of goods in bn USD Year 2000 Growth in the EU s Transport and 5%, respectively, during the period In 2000 the volume of exports and imports of goods increased by more than 15%, which was a significantly higher number than in Western Europe Environmental Impact The transport sector creates a large number of problems: Exhaust gasses contaminate the air and the water. This affects general health as well as the climate. Transport results in many accidents and consequently personal tragedies. Transport is noisy which apart from creating irritation and stress also creates health problems. Aesthetically, many people find land-based traffic ugly. Traffic overload implicates large infrastructure costs as well as loss of income for both trade, industry and society. The environmental impact of the different means of transport differs to a large extent. At long distances, transport by air and road has a far higher impact on the environment than transport by ship and rail. It is therefore very unfortunate that the development of the EU traffic has been based on transport by road to the extent which has been the case. There are economic as well as environmental arguments to give a higher priority to long-distance transport of goods by ship and rail. The Environmental Impact of Traffic Goods (2)(tkm) Indexed Source: European Commission 2001a Passengers (1)(pkm) GDP (at constant prices) The growth in EU s transport of goods is higher than the growth in GDP and the transport of passengers. Euro/1000 tons km Source: European Commission 2001b Road Rail Aviation Waterborne Upstream Process Urban Effects Nature & Landscape Air Pollution Noise Accidents Climate Change 6

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10 Scenarios for Future European GDP and Transport of Goods European GDP and transport of goods today Europe s GDP and transport of goods distributed by region are shown in the following figures. The area of the circles shows the relative size of the GDP, and the width of the arrows shows the relative sizes of the regions' transport of goods. Two scenarios for Europe s GDP and transport of goods as it might look in 15 years have been outlined. Scenario 1 shows Europe in 15 years using a cautious projection of Europe s present development. Western Europe s GDP has been projected to increase by 2% annually. The GDP of Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries is projected to increase by 3% annually. The rate of growth within transport of goods has been limited to 5% annually. This scenario is based on the assumption that the traffic capacity for handling potential trade and transport of goods will be lacking in future. Scenario 2 shows Europe in 15 years if the potential is utilised and the transportation systems work. This scenario is based on the assumption that Europe s integration will create new production structures and trade patterns in Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries. These countries are part of Europe s new distribution of work, and the production is continuously being restructured. Therefore, the projected rates of growth should not be seen as an expression of a linear development. In this scenario the GDP of Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries has been projected to increase by 6% annually. The GDP of Western Europe has been projected to increase by 3% annually. This is based on the assumption that Western Europe will benefit from the high rates of growth in the other countries. The transport of goods has been projected to increase by 10% annually, but merely by 6% annually within Western Europe. This scenario implies that efficient trade and transport systems are established. Source: WTO, CIA Scenario 1: European GDP and transport of goods in 15 years Scenario 2: European GDP and transport of goods in 15 years A full utilisation of Europe s growth potential requires that efficient trade and transport systems will be established. 8

11 Flexible Planning Separation of the transport of passengers and goods As a consequence of the heavily increasing transport volumes and in recognition of how significant traffic is to growth and integration in the EU, traffic and infrastructure will be put in focus. Large public works are very time-consuming Building roads and rails is expensive as well as time-consuming. Aiming for an extension of these transport methods will therefore not realistically solve the traffic problems within a reasonable number of years, not even with the help of heavy investments. The planning alone would take a year. Furthermore, it will be necessary to counteract the environmental impact of the increasing volumes of traffic. We will probably see the introduction of more user charges, especially on transport by road. On the whole it is to be expected that to a large extent transport costs will reflect social costs, e.g. the environmental consequences. That will create a large potential for transport of goods by means of short sea shipping, transport by rail and transport by inland waterways. A contribution to the solution of Europe s extensive traffic problems could be a technical and administrative separation of the transport of passengers and goods. If the separation is carried out, the present roads and line sections will have a larger capacity for the transport of passengers. The growth in long-distance transport of goods by road cannot be increased and should therefore be transferred to efficient corridors. Especially where it is possible to establish goods harbours and put ferries in service that will be cheaper, faster and more flexible than building entirely new motorways and rail sections. A new intermodal transport structure may connect and increase European transport of goods. A future traffic system may be based on intermodality and traffic junctions. The starting point of the traffic system could be existing rail networks, harbours, roads and rivers. Especially in Central Europe, the Baltic countries and Russia the existing infrastructure for transport of goods by rail and ship can be upgraded for increasing volumes of goods. 9

12 Intermodality Through the years, traffic planning has been divided into sectors in most countries. That has led to a lack of coherence, customer information and future planning. The individual subsectors have been working independently of each other and have often been competing between themselves. Furthermore, the individual sectors in Europe have laboured under being nationally based. The result has been a lack of integration and synergi between the different methods of transport and across the borders which has caused customer irritation as well as extensive social and business economic losses. Infrastructure Divided into Sectors Intermodal Infrastructure Air Rail Ship Road Air Rail Ship Road Politically, there is a gradual realisation of the necessity of establishing a general holistic traffic planning which runs across sectors and is based on cross-sector junctions. This requires an entirely new political thinking regarding traffic. An international connection between transport by road, ship, rail and air must be created, and here intermodality is the prerequisite for it to work. Intermodality creates synergy and coherence between the different methods of transport and between the standards of the various countries. A new intermodal transport structure may create coherence and growth within transport of goods in the Baltic region and between Western Europe and Russia. A prerequisite that intermodality will work efficiently is that international standards are established. These standards should apply across all sectors so that a reloading between the individual transport methods and between the individual countries can take place. Efficient intermodal junctions require technical standardisations as well as administrative simplifications. 10

13 Intermodality Flexibility between transport methods Goods arrive by lorry Reloaded to train Reloaded to ship Transport by ship Reloaded to train Transport by train Goods delivered by lorry Junctions Reloading of goods at traffic junctions is the most profitable thing to do. The traffic junctions are connected by means of a general route network. Example: If all 80 points around the Baltic are to be connected with each other, it would require 3160 routes. Fig. A and B. Obviously that is untenable as concerns volume, economy and environment. If, however, 6 junctions are established, they can be connected with each other by means of 15 larger routes. Fig. C. If a superjunction is established, the 80 points can be connected by means of 5 junctions and one superjunction with 5 superroutes. Fig. D. A B C D 11

14 The Intermodal Goods Harbour Year 2015 March 17, 2015: The giant ship Baltica, which has a capacity of 10,000 lane meter, has just arrived from the Russian harbour Ust-Luga at St Petersburg and has moored at the large container quay. Within a few minutes the line of container cranes is removing the first containers from the top deck and lifting them onto the big conveyor which runs across the railway track along the quay. From here the smaller cranes are ready to lift the containers onto the waiting goods train. At the same time the bridge leaf is lowered into place at the ship s stern and the high approach ramps for the top decks are also put into place. Right after this the fast trailer trucks drive up the ramp in order to fetch the double-stacked containers one by one from the top decks. 12

15 And the noise from the many trailer trucks mixes with the roar from the many lorries which drive off the ferry down the bridge leaf. Inside the ship there is also a lot of activities on the five decks and the internal ramps with stacked containers, trailers or lorries, respectively. 1/ 2 After 2 hour the ship has been emptied of cargo. One of the trains drives in the direction of the big traffic junction in Duisburg where trailers and containers are redistributed again onto lorries which transport the goods the final distance to the customers. so many lorries from the roads onto ship and railway that once again there is room on the EU roads for the still growing number of private cars without having to expand the road network to such a large extent as was feared back in the beginning of the century. Another train is heading for Lyon where the goods are also reloaded onto lorries so that they can transport the goods the final distance to the customer. And the lorries which drove directly off the ship have already been cleared and are heading directly for the customers, which typically live within a radius of three or four hundred kilometres from the harbour. Meanwhile the ship is being loaded. The small cranes bring containers from the storage space as well as directly from the train onto the conveyor by the big cranes which in turn lift the containers onto the ship. Lorries drive onboard and containers which have already been double-stacked at the storage space are driven on board. After six hours the ship has been loaded, the bridge leaf has been raised and the moorings have been cast off. The approx. 100 lorry drivers are getting settled for the night. After about 24 hours the ship will arrive in Ust-Luga where the same procedure will be repeated. The lorries transport goods directly to St. Petersburg whereas the greater part of the goods headed for Moscow, is loaded onto railway carriages. Shortly afterwards, it is then transported via the 1000 km long broad-gauged railway line to Moscow where the lorries take over once again to bring the goods all the way to the customers. This system has now worked for some years and spread to all the large harbour junctions in the Baltic region. It has paved the way for a very substantial growth in the transport of goods between the West and the East and has removed 13

16 Baltic Intermodal Junctions In future the Baltic may become a freight corridor for parts of the transport of goods between Eastern and Western Europe. The freight corridor connects the Baltic east-westbound transport routes with the European north-southbound flow of goods. The Baltic intermodal junctions can be connected with other intermodal junctions in Europe. Possible transport routes via the Baltic might be as follows: Duisburg Warsaw; Paris Moscow; Lyon St Petersburg; London Bratislava. The Baltic intermodal junctions will probably mainly be located at the large transport corridors, especially where roads, railways and rivers meet. Expectations are that intermodal junctions of various sizes will be established in all countries around the Baltic. Container volumes in Thousand TEUs West 1960 Overseas Ireland 9610 Growth since 1992 Portugal United Kingdom Spain Norway Denmark Sweden Netherlands Germany Poland Belgium Czech. Rep. Slovakia France Switzerland Austria Italia R/R C Hungary Slovenia Croatia Bosnia Finland Estonia Latavia Lithuania Rus Belarus Ukraine Moldavia Romania Herzeg. Yugoslavia Bulgaria Macedonia Albania Greece Turkey R/R C Russia East Source: Scandlines Volumes 1992 Growth The container volumes handled in the North Sea ports are much larger than the volumes handled in the Baltic, especially in the eastern Baltic. However, the growth from 1992 to 2001 (shown in blue) has proven to be remarkably stronger in the eastern Baltic with growth rates of up to 300%. The future transport of goods between north and south will cross over transport of goods between east and west in the Fehmarn Belt. An intermodal junction a hub could be established here for serving deep sea container carriers as well as Baltic intermodal ships, railways and lorries. 14

17 Intermodal junction at Fehmarn Belt A harbour in the hinterland of Fehmarn Belt may become an important intermodal junction in the Baltic region. The Fehmarn Belt bridge will probably be under construction in Here the north-southbound transport of goods and passengers will cross the Baltic east-westbound transport of goods. If such a superjunction is aimed for, the two routes will create a mutual synergy and growth in the volumes of transport. With the construction of the Fehmarn Belt bridge an intermodal junction will benefit from the traffic extension. There will be large volumes of goods coming from the north and the south. If extended, the intermodal junction can also handle considerable volumes of Europe s east-westbound transport of goods as well as containers from deep sea container carriers. The Nordic Intermodal Junctions The development of a Baltic region can be expected to result in a relatively large increase in the trade between the Nordic and the other Baltic countries. The preconditions will look much different after the enlargement of the EU after which the Baltic will become an integrated part of the EU. Furthermore, a coming Fehmarn Belt bridge combined with the blue motorways of the Baltic will change the present trading structures and transport flows. Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland s present large ports may develop into intermodal junctions. They may become part of an efficient transport network around the Baltic which can expand the existing trade flows as well as create new trade flows with changed trading patterns. Which of the Nordic ports will develop into future intermodal junctions will to a large extent depend on the interaction between political decision-makers and private companies. Russia The large oil port Primorsk and the goods port Ust Luga are situated at St Petersburg. These ports will most likely play an important part in the future Baltic network of intermodal junctions. The ports are Russia s and St Petersburg s direct link to the Baltic, but they are not ice-free during winter. The ports have a large hinterland and good connections to Russia s infrastructure. The location close to Finland and Estonia enables close cooperation with the ports nearby. Ice cover in the Baltic Sea WHITE SEA NORWEGIAN SEA HELSINKI Sankt Peterburg (St Petersburg) OSLO STOCKHOLM TALLINN MOSKVA (Moscow) RÌGA NORTH SEA BALTIC SEA KØBENHAVN (Copenhagen) Kaliningrad VILNIUS MINSK Hamburg BERLIN Average winter WARSZAWA (Warsaw) Source: Swedish Maritime Administration

18 Kaliningrad Lithuania The port of Baltijsk may become an important intermodal junction connecting Western Europe with the Baltic and Russia as well as Eastern and Central Europe. A precondition is heavy investments in the expansion of the harbour and infrastructure with railway, road, ship and perhaps airplane. The future possibilities will among other things depend on the political agreements between the EU and Russia in connection with the enlargement of the EU. Lithuania s infrastructure is dominated by roads. A large part of the transport of goods is, however, made by train, especially transit goods between Kaliningrad and Russia. Klaipeda is the largest port of Lithuania. It is ice-free all year round and has a railway connection to Russia. The port is an economic free zone and is situated relatively close to the ports of Baltijsk and Gdansk. The location of the port in relation to freight routes and infrastructure may increase its importance as a regional intermodal junction. Poland Poland borders on several countries and after the accession to the EU, increased trade and distribution of work in the surroundings are to be expected. Poland can therefore expect a large growth in the future transport of goods both as a result of its foreign trade and in the form of transit goods. The large ports of Poland, Stettin and Gdansk, are today intermodal junctions with ferry services which service the Baltic transport of goods. The ports importance as intermodal junctions must be expected to grow. The ports are connected to the European river transport system by the rivers Oder and Wista Estonia The capital of Estonia, Tallinn, is situated in the Gulf of Finland across Helsinki. The ports near Tallinn are privatised and experience large increases in the volumes of goods. The ports are ice-free and being modernised. It is expected that the port of Muuga or another of the large ports will develop into a regional intermodal junction closely integrated with the surrounding ports. Latvia The ports of Latvia handle larger volumes of goods than the other Baltic and Russian ports in the Baltic altogether. The ports of Ventspils, Liepaja and Riga are connected to Moscow by means of railway. Furthermore, Riga is connected to Moscow by main road. When the Via Baltica road project is completed, Finland will be connected by road to Poland and Germany via the Baltic countries. An intermodal junction in Latvia can connect the Baltic north-southbound transport routes and east-westbound transport routes between Western Europe and Russia. 16

19 Source Material CIA: The World Fact Book, Various Country Analyses Source to all GDP figures in this publication. Central Intelligence Agency; Office of Public Affairs; Washington, D.C The Economist Intelligence Unit: Various Country Profiles 2002 The Economist Intelligence Unit, 15 Regent St., London SW1Y 4LR, UK. European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2002): Trends in the transport sector p.23. OECD Publications Service, 2 rue André Pascal, PARIS CEDEX 16, France European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2) (2002): Trends in the transport sector p OECD Publications Service, 2 rue André Pascal, PARIS CEDEX 16, France European Commission. Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, in co-operation with Eurostat (2001a): European Union: Energy and Transport in Figures Table The Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2, rue Mercier, L-2985 Luxembourg European Commission (2001b). White Paper: European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide. Figure 3, p The Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2, rue Mercier, L-2985 Luxembourg GOSKOMSTAT OF RUSSIA (2002): Handbook "RUSSIA 2002". Table: Transportation and Turnover of Goods by General-Purpose Transport Types. Goskomstat, Moscow, Myasnitskaya st. 39. Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning (2002): FremtidsOrientering No. 1; Trafik og fremtidsforskning. Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning, Nørre Farimagsgade 65, 1364 København K OECD (2002): OECD Economic Surveys , Various Country Surveys OECD Publications, 2, rue André-Pascal, Paris Cedex 16, France. WTO Statistics Division (2001): International Trade Statistics WTO Publications, WTO, 154, rue de Lausanne, CH-1211 Geneva