PV Thin-Film 2010 Status Quo

Transcription

1 PV Thin-Film 2010 Status Quo How will PV Thin-Film develop and what are the Main Drivers of this Development? Survey excerpt provided by Inventux Technologies AG

2 HRCG 2010 Note This work and all of its contents are protected by German copyright law. All rights for contents, diagrams and illustrations contained in this publication are protected by copyright and reserved for Hoehner Research & Consulting Group. Unauthorized use of this publication, including duplication, distribution, reproduction, translation, digital storage, and processing in electronic systems is punishable by law. This product is licenced for Inventux Technologies AG. Extract of EuPD Research (Ed.): PV Thin-Film Industry Guidebook Updated Version Leading the Way to the Future of Photovoltaics, Bonn

3 Content Background 4 A. Thin-Film Market 9 Production Clusters for PV Thin-Film Production 9 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Different Thin-Film Technologies 11 The Nike Strategy: Just Do It 12 Overcapacities Mind the Gap 13 The Market Growth but no Explosion 14 Price Development Constant Decline 15 Market Shares Moderate Gains 16 First Solar dominates Differentiation necessary 17 The Market Summary 18 Cost-Cutting Potential of PV Thin-Film Four Factors 19 Cost-Reduction Potential of PV Thin-Film Best Practice 20 Theoretical Development of Effi ciencies A Snapshot 21 3 B. Thin-Film Competitiveness 4 Decisive Dimensions 22 Organizing Positioning 24 Organizing Strategic Cluster 25 Distribution Range of the Manufacturers Installers Perspective 26 Market Segment Positioning is the Key 27 The PV Thin-Film Market 2.0 Overview 28 Outlook 2010 The Photovoltaic Industry will become more Global 29 Editorial 30

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5 Background Executive Summary In comparison to crystalline cells, PV thin-film technology despite its impressive development in recent times is still an emerging technology on the verge of mass production. Originally developed as a cost-efficient alternative to crystalline cells, thinfilm technology has been quickly able to gain additional market share, thanks to a more efficient use of resources and alternative semiconductors in times of a decreasing silicon supply and an increasing demand. The competitive disadvantage due to the inferior output of thinfilm cells has been cushioned by lower sales prices which also eased the way for the application in large commercial power plants. Changed market conditions now also pose new challenges for thin-film cell manufacturers: Decreasing silicon prices and economies of scale of crystalline manufacturers mean that panel prices are falling fast and with this the price advantage enjoyed by thin-film manufacturers. In addition, the silicon bottleneck, and thus the production bottleneck of crystalline manufacturers, has been resolved. At the same time, emerging markets (IT, FR, GB, USA, Eastern-EU) are growing at a significantly slower pace than originally expected, leading to a demand for solar systems in 2009 which was lower than the supply; the market is characterized by oversupply. The excess supply of last year which was created by higher technical capabilities and higher output rates on the one hand, and a slower market growth on the other hand intensified the cost pressure on manufacturers noticeably. By now, this trend has also had an effect on the financing activities of producers (keyword: bankability). Further, more and more foreign suppliers are rushing to participate in the market which will inevitably result in market consolidation. While technical aspects were often emphasized during the debate on the future of the sector, the manufacturers need to focus on, in particular, market-economic legitimacies, in the future. The demand side until now considered inexhaustible has not been given sufficient consideration. Marketing and brand-building, communication of USPs and the strategic positioning of the own product have too often been subordinated to the sheer sale and lack of individuality of the sector. 5

6 Background Executive Summary Dealing not only with the demand, but also with the competitiveness of a product has not always been considered a priority: the highly praised grid parity will not lead to an immediate explosion in demand. For the future, an internationally competitive product is therefore a must and no longer a nice to have if a company is to remain successful. Additional capacities will only be set up once existing production lines are working to full capacity, so that produced panels can actually be sold in the market. Adequate differentiation and strategic positioning is thus essential. On the market side, only a few factors indicate that the thin-film market share worldwide is increasing, however, this parameter is only of limited relevance to companies. Firms which manage to stand out from the mass in the future will in a competitive environment always gain additional market share. Focusing on cost leadership alone is, however, less rewarding than differentiation by means of added value. Next to the technological fit of the product, the key factor for success will be in its marketing especially sales. Apart from access to the customer via the relevant sales intermediary (installers), it must also be

7 ensured that the company is equipped with a sufficient level of system know-how for future areas of application, such as energy storage-technologies. With regard to the extensive life span of PV systems, after-sales services can also be seen as an additional dimension of differentiation. 7 EuPD Research therefore expects that, in the future, sufficient room will be available for companies which, based on solid technology and the corresponding product positioning, will satisfy customer demands to the maximum.

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9 A. The Thin-Film Market Production Clusters for PV Thin-Film Production There are three main clusters for PV thin-film production. The European TF-center is located in Eastern Germany ( technological focus ). In Asia, capacity ramp up is currently announced in China, Taiwan, and India ( scale up ). In the US, a cluster in Silicon Valley is aborning. 9 Europe Eastern Germany is about to develop into one of the most important global production clusters for various PV thin-film technologies. In the other European countries, however, a-si and tandem will be the main technology.

10 Asia Five of the thin-film industry leaders are from Japan: Kaneka, MHI, Sharp, Showa Shell and Honda. In the coming years, Taiwan is expected to develop into one of the main production sites for PV thin-film modules due to the numerous flat panel companies that are based there. North-Eastern China may evolve into another important production cluster. USA In the US, the Great Lakes region is the current production hotspot with two market leaders producing there. In the future, the Silicon Valley in California, and Colorado, home to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), will become important production clusters for innovative PV thin-film technologies. Massachusetts New Jersey California Louisiana

11 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Different Thin-Film Technologies 11

12 The Nike Strategy: Just Do It In 2008 / 2009, 40 a-si manufacturers started production, a further 42 announced their impending commencement. The announced capacities of these 82 producers adds up to 13.4 GWp for Even though the gap between announced and realistic capacities is significant, these numbers still reflect the ambitious goals of the manufacturers. Production Start of production planned Source: EuPD Research 2010 However, if this market is characterized by economies of scale, why is a total of 141 thin-film manufacturers competing in the market? In 2008, it seemed only to be a question of time before thin-film overtook crystalline technology. Many manufacturers/investors jumped on the bandwagon without knowing the destination Announced capacities North America Europe Asia Until SEPT. 30, 2008 (Breakdown of the Spanish PV market) the markets were only developing in one direction: Up! The supply side struggled with scarcity. The reason: High demand due to political incentives and silicon scarcity. The silicon-free, -efficient thin-film production had proven to be ready for the market and was seen as a cost-efficient alternative. The financial feasibility was given before the financial crisis. Banks and investors wanted to take part in the boom.

13 Overcapacities Mind the Gap Impressive growth has led to overcapacities in the market. Many companies announced very optimistic expansion plans. Even if the realistic capacity, is taken into consideration there is still a gap between production capacities and actual demand. Such an imbalance cannot be sustained in the mid-term. Without a significant increase in market volume and an adjustment of capacities market consolidation will be the only reasonable remedy. In our opinion, supply will, therefore, have to adapt to the demand in the mid-term. If not, one of the first consequences will be the delay of ambitious expansion plans. Most of the manufacturers will, at first, focus on enhancing the competitiveness of the product, and on the expansion and stabilization of existing sales channels. In the mid-term, a significant market growth is to be expected, mitigating the situation for PV thin-film producers. Announced cell capacities, production and demand, It is to be expected, that emerging markets in the southern hemisphere have, due to their climate, the potential for major competitive advantages in the thin-film technology sector compared to the superior crystalline technology sector of today.

14 The Market Growth but no Explosion The market will continue to develop positively, even though future growth rates are going to be lower than in boom-times. Growth rates of 20% and 30%, however, appear realistic in the long-term. Nevertheless, the market will consolidate soon. Worldwide demand by region, Falling production costs are leading to an increase in demand. In a regulated market however, the market volume remains limited. The recent debate on FITs (Feed-in-Tariffs) in Germany and the Czech Republic, the cap on the Spanish market, as well as the effective cap on the markets in Greece, France and Italy, prove that market growth in markets with FITs is limited. Grid parity is an important milestone on the way to competitiveness, however its mere accomplishment will not lead to an explosion in the PV markets. At the moment, demand is mainly driven by capital returns. However, how high will the return be once power can be sold at a price based on the cost of production, meaning once earnings equal expenses? Grid parity will not remain without consequences. With the accomplishment of grid parity, political dependence will be reduced but not overcome. An extensive financial support scheme for the photovoltaics sector will therefore remain necessary. Further milestones will be in the advancement of energy storage technologies needed for consumption and for the feedin to SMART Grids.

15 Price Development Constant Decline The current price development in photovoltaics has turned out to be a double-edged sword. Within a period of about 15 months, module prices haven fallen by, on average, more than 40%. 15 This is impressive evidence of the cost-cutting potential of the technology. On the supplier and manufacturer side, the planning and costs for capacity expansion were based on much more conservative assumptions with regard to price development. Price development In order to be able to still realize the margins necessary, companies must therefore now increase their turnover. Accordingly, in the future, more megawatts must be sold to meet projected turnover. In order to achieve this, many companies have to operate close to their factory costs. Thin-film technology has been hit particularly hard by this development because this technology is still in the early phases of the technology life cycle. To date, only First Solar has managed to operate at massproduction-level, generating the lowest price among thin-film competitors.

16 Market Shares Moderate Gains PV market segmentation In addition to market volume, the market share of thin-film technology also has to be addressed. At the moment, CIS/CIGS carries the hopes of the sector, though only few companies produce this market-ready. Further, manufacturers of micromorph technology (tandem) still have great potential in the silicon-based thin-film sector. The superiority of First Solar reveals that thin-film technology is much more than just a niche product, with the respective potential. Nevertheless, only few manufacturers have the expertise needed to control the production process. Over the next years, we expect the market, on the whole, to grow while at the same time both technologies (c-si and thinfilm) will become more compatible. In mature markets, we can see sufficient potential in the secondary rooftop segment (East- West direction), building-integrated applications, and also still in the segment of large commercial installations. In the southern hemisphere, low light performance, and the superior temperature coefficient of thin-film modules will maneuver this sector in a much more favorable position than is possible in the current core markets.

17 First Solar dominates Differentiation necessary In total, there are 141 thin-film and 256 crystalline manufacturers. The share of thin-film companies consequently adds up to 35%. In terms of installed capacity, the share of thin-film only adds up to 20%. The thin-film production therefore amounts to approximately 1.7 GW. Of these 1.7 GW, 1.1 GW have been produced by First Solar only. The cleared thin-film market therefore corresponds to about 600 MW which is a market share of approximately 6%. 140 market participants are thus competing over a relatively small piece of the cake. As a result, the market is currently characterized by intensive competition. First Solar is the cost leader in the sector, and very successful. At the moment, about 100 companies are trying to follow a similar strategy. Without doubt, there will not be 100 cost leaders. The key to success, therefore, is not only in cost reduction but also in standing out from the mass differentiation is the decisive strategy. The question of how 13 companies will manage to differ from each other on panel size has yet to be answered. At this point, it is more the exception that proves the rule. The fact that turnkey applications can at least partly be a good starting point has been shown by Inventux Technologies. Regarding efficiency, the Berlin-based µ-si manufacturer has taken a step forward. 18 months after starting production, the company has achieved efficiencies of around 10 percent in mass production. Allocation of companies and proportional production in the PV market 17

18 The Market Summary The thin-film market at a glance A market consolidation is inevitable in the mid-term. Only a few market exits so far. End of silicon scarcity also leads to change in the thin-film sector. Despite difficulties of financing, planned ramp-up leads to enormous overcapacities. Moderate growth is to be expected, a market explosion rather unlikely. The achievement of grid parity can only be a milestone, not the goal. Price development with clear trend, c-si producers enjoy, thanks to falling silicon prices, vital momentum. Pressure on other technologies increases. Moderate gains in market share are to be expected. However, development is very dependent on CIS/CIGS and micromorph technology. The current cut-throat competition is to be faced with a strategy of differentiation. Several manufacturers are competing over a relatively small piece of the market.

19 Cost-Cutting Potential of PV Thin-Film Four Factors In general, there are four factors crucial to cost-cutting: 1. Productivity The potential of cost reduction is given by a reduction in cycle time as well as an increase in machinery up-time, followed by panel size. 2. Module efficiency The efficiency enhancements and also the reduction in waste generated during the production process are seen as leverage. 3. Direct materials The current material costs of different thin-film technologies do not differ significantly. However, since the availability of some materials for semiconductors such as indium or tellurium is limited in the long-term, direct materials will gain in importance in the potential for costreduction. Scarce resources increase the price of the final product. 4. Scale-up The critical size of a module factory has often been subject to debate, but currently it is difficult to find an appropriate answer. For a long time, the integrated gigawatt-factory was regarded the optimal size in order to take advantage of economies of scale. Frequently, a comparison between the semiconductor and the LCD sector is drawn. Evidence of this has yet to be brought forward. The cost-cutting factors in the thin-film segment 19

20 Cost-Reduction Potential of PV Thin-Film Best Practice The current dynamics in the area of thin-film production can be clearly demonstrated in several examples: The factors of cost-cutting in PV thin-film Best Practice 1. Productivity By implementing the inline-process control offered by the Israeli start-up BrightView, Signet Solar was able to increase productivity. 2. Module efficiency The Berlin-based Inventux shows that based on R&D, significant results in the area of module efficiency can be achieved. This is especially apparent when comparing the company to others with a similar starting position. 3. Direct Materials The entry of more and more multi-nationals such as DuPont or LG reveals not only the appeal of the sector but also poses the question whether synergy effects can be achieved. Above all, this could be due to sheer purchasing power, while in the mid-term more positive group effects should also emerge. 4. Scale-up The critical size of production cannot be specified yet. Industry experts vary between a size of 300 MWp to 1 GWp. The Japanese companies Sharp and Showa Shell ( Solar Frontier ) are, however, convinced by maximum site production.

21 Theoretical Development of Efficiencies A Snapshot The most leverage in cost reduction stems from module efficiency. The effects amount to 15% cost reduction for every 20% improvement of module efficiency. 21 With regard to crystalline, wafer-based technology and their efficiency advantage, the limit for thin-film is in the area of 10% module efficiency. Possible development of module efficiencies in Thin-Film technologies While CdTe and CIS/CIGS have already reached this limit, siliconbased thin-film is currently at a disadvantage. a-si modules with an average efficiency of 7% can no longer use their cost advantage in competition with crystalline technologies. In the field of micromorph technologies (tandem), companies such as Inventux or Kaneka are capable of operating above the 10%-limit. Combining the advantages of the superior temperature coefficient and low light performance, results from field tests demonstrate that this technology is definitely competitive.

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23 B. Thin-Film 2.0 Competitiveness 4 Decisive Dimensions A competitive product is no longer an option but mandatory. The reason is the following: The product will not be able to enter the market without an efficient distribution structure. Established producers have, without doubt, an advantage here. For newcomers it is therefore important to identify niches and position their own branding accordingly. Those, who cannot answer the question of how they will bring their modules to the market, will have difficulties even if their product is generally competitive. The 4 Ps Source: EuPD Research It is not sufficient to identify the target market. Rather, one has to find out, how a certain segment can be opened up in corresponding market. An interesting niche market could be, for instance, the use of the northern parts of roofs on agricultural buildings. It is essential to identify these niches, since not every producer can be cost leader in the future. Those, who focus purely on the product and its price, but disregard distribution and marketing, will lose ground. First Solar is the current benchmark. The company is indeed cost leader, but without an intelligent distribution network, it would have been impossible to bring one gigawatt to the market. Price Promotion Promotion Product Place

24 Organizing Positioning Within the framework of a correspondence analysis, the respective companies were ranked in form of a scoring-system. Afterwards, they were positioned in a matrix. The graph shows Positioning of thin-film Companies Established Market Position Source: EuPD Research 2010 Cost Leaders Differentiation Leaders the degree of market establishment on the x-axis, and generic strategy towards cost leadership on the y-axis. In total, 12 factors relating to the company were evaluated qualitatively. Most of the companies considered are still entering the market. In other words, there is often only one pilot version of the product in existence. Only 30 companies are in the process of ramp-up or serial production. First Solar Price Focus Kaneka MHI SHARP Uni-Solar Showa Shell Würth Inventux Solibro Solyndra Schott Bosch Solar QS-Solar ENN Auria Calyxo Honda Odersun Best Solar Trony SunfilmS ignet Avancis Sulfurcell Fuji Green Energy Nanosolar Tianwei Global Solar Astronergy Amplesun T-Solar Sun Shine PV Heliosphera Malibu Johanna Flexcell EPV Gadir Abound Solarion Pramac Masdar Scheuten/RITEK Xunlight DayStar Kenmos Solar Plus Sungen Sanyo ENEOS SoloPower Moser Baer Ascent Bangkok Sunvim Power Film Beyond PV Polar Miasole XSunX Pvflex Terra Solar Grupo Unisolar Helianthos Heliovolt Sinonar EPIStar G24 Innovations Tianjin Canon Dyesol Moncada Sunovia/EPIR Fujikura Ltd. Heliatek AISIN Seiki Peccell Cost Newcomers Innovalight Differentiation Newcomers No Established Market Position Differentiation Focus With reference to generic strategies, it can be observed that a portion of the companies have chosen the strategy of cost leadership. That is to say, they would like to start offering standardized products at a competitive price, in order to enter the market. First Solar is the benchmark here. They also have a clear competitive advantage in terms of time. The other portion of companies have chosen the strategy of differentiation. This strategy cannot be limited to technologies/field of application. While United Solar has differentiated itself by focusing on building integrated photovoltaics, CIS/CIGS-producers such as Solibro (Q-Cells) or SolarFrontier (Showa Shell) have chosen to compete with the existing fields of application of crystalline technology.

25 Organizing Strategic Cluster When examining the competitive environment, in addition to generic strategies further similarities can be found. One is the heritage of the company. In general, the companies can be classified in six strategic tiers. 25 In addition to the long established PV producers (tier 1), five other new clusters can be identified. Tier 2 shows the producers, which operate globally such as DuPont or Bosch. These companies have been dealing with PV for some time, but are of special interest due to their financial capacities. The third tier includes companies that have an own R&D department and other unique features to prepare for market entry. These unique features not only relate to technology, but also to a differentiated distribution strategy ( smart marketing ). Tier 4 then shows all companies which have clearly detected the potential of technology and entered the market with the help of ready-to-use factory solutions. They act as opportunists in the market. Furthermore, some companies stick to the classic energy sector of thin-film production (tier 5) and others see the potential of the existing business fields in contract manufacturing, and not as technology drivers (tier 6).

26 Distribution Range of the Manufacturers Installers Perspective The table shows the medium share of the most important thin-film brands in relation to the collectivity of all installers interviewed in Germany. This share is referred to as the distribution range of manufacturers. Development of the Distribution Range for Thin-Film Manufacturers

27 Market Segment Positioning is the Key The question of the market appeal of thin-film technologies is difficult to answer. At the moment, the open space segment dominates. With a comparably extensive market cultivation, it is possible to sell significant product quantities to this segment. However, this segment is problematic due to an immense price war. Only companies that produce at very low costs are able to survive in the long-run. Technological advantages only play a minor role. space market. The difficulty is in developing a channel that serves future expectations of design as well as product differentiation. This could prove to be a lucrative market in the future. Market Attractiveness of the Individual Market Segments 27 For the European area, building integrated solutions seems to be of greater interest, since a lot more competitive factors play a role in this segment. In the field of private and commercial rooftop-applications, thin-film technologies currently play a minor role. However, it is estimated that this segment will play a very important role in Europe in the future, since it is a fundamental part of the European overall goal of energy-efficient buildings. A good example is the French market where two or three times the price is paid for building integrated systems compared to the German open

28 The PV-Thin-Film Market 2.0 Overview The thin-film market 2.0 at a glance Competitiveness in all four dimensions (price, product, place, promotion) is increasingly important. Cost reductions alone will no longer be sufficient. It is particularly important for newcomers to identify niche segments, develop intelligent distribution channels, and to invest in top of the range marketing and communication. First Solar continues to be the Benchmark in terms of cost leadership as well as distribution channels in large-scale projects. A rise in production capacity has to be accompanied by wider distribution channels. Currently, best-in-class players still have an advantage, but 2010 will show which companies can keep up with the competitive pressure and continue production in the future.

29 Outlook 2010 The Photovoltaic Industry will become more Global 29 To stay competitive, both, small manufacturers with specialized products and large scale manufacturers competing on large projects, will need to maintain their edge in all fronts and offer improvements in cost, quality and long term product durability. Process improvements and innovations will be introduced periodically, somewhat similar to Moore s law in the semiconductor industry, allowing each generation of thin film panels to achieve an incremental improvement in performance. Process control, and state-of-the-art in-house engineering, or cross-licensing, will be one of the key enablers to this. In the coming years, the photovoltaic industry is likely to develop into an even more global branch and will free itself from dependency on individual national markets like Germany. However, it has to be assumed that the German market will remain the driving force behind the worldwide PV industry in This will be the case despite recently announced reductions in subsidy levels. In Europe, the relevance of other markets will increase, like Italy or France which are likely to grow in the three-digit MW range. Looking across the Atlantic shows that the United States will continue on the road to becoming one of the largest PV markets in the world with an estimated newly-installed capacityof over one GW for the first time. In Asia, the relevance of China in particular will increase for the photovoltaic industry.

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