2016 China s Internet Consumption Finance Market Research Report.

Transcription

1 2016 China s Internet Consumption Finance Market Research Report

2 Consumption Contributes to Macroeconomic Restructuring China s National Economy Steadily Grows. Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Exceeds 30 Trillion Yuan China s national economy has maintained fast growth for a long time since the reform and opening up. By 2015, China s GDP reached about 68 trillion Yuan, maintaining a growth rate of 6.9%. iresearch believes that although the growth rate has dropped a little, the fast growth of national economy will maintain a long time. And consumption will contribute more to GDP. In 2015, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached trillion Yuan, increasing by 10.7% YoY. And the average annual growth rate of GDP is around 7%. With the increase of Chinese people s wealth and the policies which stimulates consumption, the consumption intention of Chinese people increases year by year China s GDP And Growth Rate % 14.2% 9.2% 9.3% 7.7% 6.9% 12.7% 9.6% 10.4% 7.7% 7.4% Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods And Growth Rate % % % 15.5% 18.3% 17.1% 14.3% 15.5% 12.0% 10.7% GDP (trillion Yuan) % Growth rate Total retail sales (trillion Yuan) % Growth rate Source: The data are from National Bureau of Statistics of China and iresearch. 2 2

3 Huge Potential of Consumption in China In 2015, The Proportion of Final Consumption Expenditure in The Growth of GDP Increased by 15.4 Percentage Points In 2015, the proportion of consumption in the growth of China s GDP was 66.4%, increasing by 15.4 percentage points compared to last year. However, compared to that of America, it still lags behind. iresearch points out that China s economic growth is too dependent on investment, which leads to unbalanced economic structure. Meanwhile, since China s export is highly depended on American and European markets, the weak demand of overseas market has serious negative influences on net exports of goods and services. In the future, the adjustment of China s economic structure will mainly rely on consumption, which is shown in the economic data of The fast growth of Chinese residents consumption and the development of consumption finance industry promote each other. Proportion of Consumption in GDP in China And America % 81.8% 81.8% 82.4% 84.3% 86.3% 84.6% 84.9% 83.9% 83.2% 83.0% 83.1% 80% 70% 60% 54.1% 52.4% 50.6% 49.7% 50.0% 49.1% 50.2% 50.8% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 50% 40% 30% 47.2% 48.1% 48.3% 47.7% 47.8% 46.0% 45.8% 43.8% 41.5% 41.7% 41.6% e China's Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) America's Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) % China's capital formation rate Note:Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) refers to the proportion of final consumption in GDP in a country or region in a certain period of time. It is an important index to measure proportion of consumption in national economy. Capital formation rate is also called investment rate. It refers to the proportion of gross capital formation in GDP in a certain period of time. Gross capital formation includes gross fixed capital formation and increase in inventory. Source: The data are from National Bureau of Statistics of China and iresearch. 3 3

4 The Internet Releases Consumption Potential Effectively E-commerce Changes Habits of Users Thoroughly In 2015, the market revenue of China s internet economy was 1.1 trillion Yuan, increasing by 45.6% YoY. The GMV of online shopping was 3.8 trillion Yuan, increasing by 37.2% YoY. In the next few years, the potential of online shopping will be further released in the western provinces and the third-tier cities and fourth-tier cities in middle and eastern provinces. It is expected that the e-commerce industry in China will be the main factor that increases consumption. Market Revenue of China's Internet Economy GMV of China's Online Shopping Sector , % 44.5% 41.0% 26.7% % 51.3% 59.4% 47.1% 37.2% 30.5% 25.3% 20.3% 58.2% 45.6% 35.0% 3,000 2,000 1, ,110 1,560 2,110 2, e 2017e 2018e e 2016e 2017e 2018e Revenue (billion Yuan) % Growth rate GMV (trillion Yuan) % Growth rate Source: 1. The internet economy here refers to the broad conception of internet economy. iresearch defines it as the sum of PC internet economy and mobile internet economy. Market GMV of internet economy includes the revenue of enterprises in all segments. 2. Since Q4 2011, the GMV of mobile internet market is the sum of GMV from both mobile phone and tablets. 3. E-commerce market includes the B2B e-commerce of small and medium-sized enterprises, online shopping and online travel reservation market. 4. GMV of online shopping is the sum of C2C and B2C. The data is based on financial results published by enterprises, interviews, and iresearch s projection and statistical model. 4 4

5 The Importance of Internet Consumption Finance The GMV in 2015 Might Exceeded 200 Billion Yuan, Increasing by Around 10 Times Compared to 2014 China s internet consumption finance market is in the initial stage of development from 2013 to In 2015, as the scope of policy trials increased and the central bank opened credit license, both internet giants and startups started to enter the field of consumption finance. After two years of rapid growth, the market started to skyrocket. Data from iresearch show that in 2013 the GMV of China s internet consumption finance market was only 6 billion Yuan. The number was over billion Yuan in 2014, increasing by over 200%. In 2015, the entire market might exceed 200 billion Yuan. iresearch believes that the limit of credit model and closed consumption loop leads to the uneven development of consumer credit. The internet consumption finance which is based on real consumption is better. The GMV and Growth Rate of China s Internet Consumption Finance , % 173.5% 222.6% 205.3% 269.0% 128.6% 94.6% 74.9% 9,000 6, ,000 3, , , e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e GMV (Billion Yuan) % Growth rate Source: The data is based on iresearch s database, interviews and iresearch s statistical model. 5 5

6 Eco-driven Internet Finance Close Integration of Internet Ecosystem And Financial Ecosystem Internet has changed the way of spreading information and also influenced the acquisition of target customers. With the development of internet technology, operation in financial sector is more regulated and transparent, and the online credit system is increasingly well-established. Many of the bottlenecks to the development financial sector offline can be solved through combination with the internet ecosystem. Ideal Financial Environment Customer acquisition Financial services Credit system Internal mechanism Financial regulation Low-cost customer acquisition channel Stable, controllable & high-level financial services Wellestablished credit system and high-level credit technology Efficient and easy to control internal mechanism Sound legal system, strictly enforced punishment and financial regulations Scene-based marketing layout + exponential user growth potential Online service may be more controllable, easy to manage and evaluate With big data and other technologies, internet credit will be more accurate Online office based on network platform is more efficient, controllable and easy to manage China is intensifying law enforcement to fight cyber crimes Internet ecosystem 6 6

7 Establishment of Demand-driven Product Line E-commerce Ecosystem Can Expand Outwards Centering on a Single Demand of a User. On an online shopping platform, e-commerce websites may accumulate massive vertical data about user demand. With user portrait technology, they are able to expand outwards centering on the users single demand. For example, Mr. A, who has been using some online shopping platform for 3 years, booked an airline ticket to a popular tourist city for spring festival online. Analysis of Mr. A s purchase records on the platform and the relevance of products in the tourist city in question shows that Mr. A probably has some other demands and then the platform places related advertising targeting at Mr. A. 80% Willing to insure luggage against damage or loss Going to airport by taxi 66% Checking luggage Need to insure against flight delay 92% Hotel reservation Package tour Mr. A booked an airline ticket to a popular tourist city during the Spring Festival DIY tour 42% Destination pickup 28% Buying outdoor sports equipment Need to buy travel accident insurance 7 7

8 Upcoming Financial Revolution Improvement of Risk Control Through Machine Learning & Digital Technology The nature of financing is the preservation and appreciation of assets by restructuring the financial assets. However, the development of financial sector has been constrained by time and spatial differences, as well as human risks and costs. With the application of machine learning and digital technology, the old financial channels will be reshaped and the control of financial risks will become intelligent, open and visualized. Financial technology Rules and process based on labor Control based on financial technology Financial assets Old channel Procedure Approval Risk control Other laborbased rules & processes Machine learning Digital technology Order monitoring system User evaluation model Riskdecision system Other automatic processes based on technology New channel Preservation & appreciation of financial assets Reshaping the old financial channel 8 8

9 Keywords, Concepts & Definitions Concept Definition & description Machine 概念 learning By simulating the human learning process, machine learning may enable 定义描述 computers to restructure the existing knowledge for better performance. 利用网络媒体 ( 包括门户网站 垂直媒体网站 视频网站 社区网站 搜索引擎 网络营销 It is a technology developed together with computers. It uses some device to transfer 客户端软件等 various forms ) 宣传企业品牌形象或进行促销活动等的营销行为 of information, including graphs, texts, sound, images, etc. Digital technology into binary digits that can be identified for further computing, processing, storage, 网络广告广告主 ( 汽车厂商 ) 在网络媒体上投放的广告费用总和, 这个规模要小于其用于营 transfer, spread and restore on computer. ( 汽车网络广告 ) 市场规模销的总费用 Financial technology 垂直媒体 Consumption finance 计费方式 Consumer credit service It refers to technologies adopted to make the financial system more efficient. 专注于某一领域的网络媒体网站, 如汽车网站 房产网站等 It refers to modern financial services that offer consumption loans to consumers 根据网络广告投放效果计算广告费用的方式, 如按照千次展示付费的 CPM 按照点 of various levels. 击次数付费的 CPC 按照展示时间付费的 CPT 按照用户实际行为付费的 CPA 等 It refers to loans offered by commercial banks to natural persons (not legal persons or organizations) for individual consumption (not for business). Internet finance Internet finance in this report refers to all forms of financing activities conducted over the internet. 9 9

10 The Table of Contents of The Full Reports 1.Analysis of Macro Environment 1.1 Consumption Contributes to Macroeconomic Restructuring 1.2 Huge Potential of Consumption in China 1.3 The Internet Releases Consumption Potential Effectively 2.Current Situation of Consumer Credit 2.1 Consumption Will be The Main Impetus to Credit 2.2 Consumer Credit is Extremely Uneven 2.3 The Importance of Internet Consumption Finance 2.4 The Core of Internet Consumption Finance 2.5 The Consumption Finance Industry Has Great Potential And is Developing Rapidly 2.6 Extensibility of Internet Consumption Finance 3.Consumption Finance Case Study of New Finance Industry JD Finance 3.1 Layout of Internet Giants For Consumption Finance 3.2 Business Layout 3.3 Current Status of Products 3.4 Financial Technology 3.5 Spirit of Sharing 3.6 Industry Drive 4.Forecast of The Trends of Internet Consumption Finance 4.1 Eco-driven Internet Finance 4.2 Establishment of Demand-driven Product Line 4.3 Upcoming Financial Revolution 4.4 Impact on Logic of Internet Business 10 10

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