China Energy Future: Pollution versus Energy Security. Fuqiang Yang Natural Resources Defense Council 16/11/2015

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Barbara Skinner
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1 China Energy Future: Pollution versus Energy Security Fuqiang Yang Natural Resources Defense Council 16/11/2015

2 Net Importation of Energy Types, 2014 Crude Oil 308 M tons Coefficient 59.5% Coal 285 M tons ~8% Natural Gas 59 B cm 32.2% Source:China Coal Association, and CNPC Research Institute, 2015

3 Coal s Contribution to Air Pollutant Emissions CO2 甲烷 Methane Black carbon 黑碳烟粉尘 Soot NOx Direct combustion 直接燃烧伴随煤炭使用的重点行业 Related emissions from major coal-using industries Primary SO2 一次 PM2.5 Hg 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Coal Consumption and Air Pollution Show Spatial

4 Coal Consumption and Air Pollution Show Spatial Consistency Distribution of National Coal Consumption Satellite imagery of national distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations Within the eastern coal-consuming regions, the high intensity coal-consuming areas overlap with areas with extreme smog

Calculating the True Cost of Coal, 2012 True Cost Of Coal 3.7% of GDP in 2012 Sector Category Sub-category Yuan / Ton Coal production Mining coal Resources loss 11.

5 Calculating the True Cost of Coal, 2012 True Cost Of Coal 3.7% of GDP in 2012 Sector Category Sub-category Yuan / Ton Coal production Mining coal Resources loss resources Water resources Water resource depletion Water pollution 5.81 Ecosystems Agriculture ecosystem 2.00 Soil erosion and ecological degradation Coal consumption 煤炭消费 68.9% Coal production 煤炭生产 22% Coal transportation 煤炭运输 8.7% Human health Miner deaths 0.23 Direct loss from occupational disease 0.14 Indirect loss from occupational disease 0.21 Sub-Total Coal transportation Highway transport Accidents, noise, environment, etc Rail transport Accidents, noise, environment, etc Waterway transport Accidents, noise, environment, etc Sub-Total 27.8 Coal consumption Human health Ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer excess deaths Acid Rain Agriculture, ecologic system Solid Waste Soil, underground water, Ecology 4.40 Waste Water Ecologic system, underground water 7.56 Climate Change Social, Economic and environment Total Cost

COAL S SHARE IN PRIMARY ENERGY TO BE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

6 REALIZE HARMONIOUS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA S ECONOMY, SOCIETY, AND ENVIRONMENT RESOURCE CONSERVATION REDUCE COAL S SHARE IN PRIMARY ENERGY TO BE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PUBLIC HEALTH 57% GHG REDUCTION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ENERGY TRANSITION

7 Ecological Resources Constraints: Coal Consumption and PM2.5 Pollutants National PM2.5 Pollutant Reduction Targets Units: micrograms/ cm Red Line 10 Source: Chinese Coal Cap,2015

8 BTCE 2020 NATIONAL COAL CONSUMPTION CAP: 2.72 BILLION TCE Coal Cap Scenario Reference Scenario 2020 national coal consumption cap 2020 total energy consumption 4.74 BTCE 2.72 BTCE (3.8 billion tons) C Scenario Energy-Saving Scenario Coal s share in primary energy 57.4% Natural gas s share 10% Non-fossil energy s share 15.2% Oil s share 17.4% Coal reduction targets 300 MTCE (420 Mn tons) National coal production cap 3.7 Bn tons China Coal Consumption Scenarios,

9 COAL CONTROL S SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CO-BENEFITS 5.21 Billion tons Water savings, in 2020 By 2020, coal s share in power generation capacity reduce to 52% +1.5 Million Green jobs (net) created, in 2020 TOTAL BENEFITS BY Billion Yuan -71,000 Fewer premature deaths in 2020 Emissions Reduction from Sources, in 2020: SO 2 NOx Particles 5,590,000 tons 1,920,000 tons 900,000 tons 980,000,000 tons Avoided carbon emissions, in 2020

2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Oil Coal Coal Oil

10 100 million tce CONSUMPTION OF DIFFERENT FUELS, Oil Coal Coal Oil Natural Gas Non Fossil Total Non Fossil Natural Gas Total

11 % SHARES OF DIFFERENT FUELS IN TOTAL ENERGY MIX, Coal Oil Natural Gas Non Fossil

12 Develop Natural Gas Market to Replace Coal Daqing Crude Oil Natural Gas for Industrial Users Qinhuangdao port Shanxi Thermal Coal China coal, oil, and natural gas price trends, May 2011 May 2015

13 Power Sector Planning, Installation (GW) Generation(TWh) Hydro PS Coal Gas Nuclear Wind (250) PV (150) CSP Biomass Total (1973) Non Fossil (%) (0.457)

Establish Strong Public Governance Capacity Through Energy system revolution ENERGY SYSTEM REVOLUTION Revise the Coal Law and Electricity Law.

14 Establish Strong Public Governance Capacity Through Energy system revolution ENERGY SYSTEM REVOLUTION Revise the Coal Law and Electricity Law. Establish Energy Law, Climate Change Law and other relevant laws. Decentralize government authorized power. Establish a Ministry of Energy and Climate Change, and a National Energy Regulatory Commission Establish a co-coordinated energy/coal cap governing body to guide energy/coal cap work

Global Energy Global Demand Energy Demand Growth Shift Growth to Asia Shift to Asia

Brazil 480 Europe 1 710 1 030 Africa Eurasia 1 370 Middle 1 050 East 1 540 India China 4

OECD 5% 4% Non-OECD Asia 65% China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the

15 Global Energy Global Demand Energy Demand Growth Shift Growth to Asia Shift to Asia Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe) Share of global growth United States Brazil 480 Europe Africa Eurasia Middle East India China Japan 440 Southeast Asia Africa Middle East Latin America 8% 10% 8% Eurasia OECD 5% 4% Non-OECD Asia 65% China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth OECD/IEA 2013

Reduce Coal Demand Through International Energy Cooperation ESTABLISH AN ASIAN ENERGY SECURITY AND COOPERATION AGENCY Borrow from current experience in energy governance to uphold stability in energy

16 Reduce Coal Demand Through International Energy Cooperation ESTABLISH AN ASIAN ENERGY SECURITY AND COOPERATION AGENCY Borrow from current experience in energy governance to uphold stability in energy markets Create a balanced, open, transparent, and mutually beneficial platform to benefit suppliers and consumers Promote trade in clean, efficient, low-carbon technologies and development of clean energy

Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario

Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario Dr. Timur Gül, IEA COP23, Bonn, 16 November 2017 Context The SDGs recognise climate change, air pollution and