A View from Ford. John Ginder. Manager, Systems Analytics and Environmental Sciences Department Research and Advanced Engineering.

Transcription

1 A View from Ford John Ginder Manager, Systems Analytics and Environmental Sciences Department Research and Advanced Engineering February 21, 2007 Research & Advanced Engineering 1

2 Ford in 2006 A year of transition Lost $12.7B US market share fell to 16.4% Reducing salaried workforce up to 30% 35,000 union employees took buyouts Secured $18B loan collateralized using plants and intellectual property Hired Alan Mulally from Boeing as CEO Fusion/Milan/Zephyr received Consumer Reports highest predicted reliability score, over Toyota Camry and Honda Accord Fusion, Mustang atop JD Power APEAL ratings Launched the Ford Edge Research & Advanced Engineering 2

3 Business Factors The US and Global Auto Industry Globalization Manufacturing overcapacity Pressure on margins Commodity costs Legacy costs Supplier instability and consolidation Research & Advanced Engineering 3

4 Technical Challenges The US and Global Auto Industry Energy Security/Fuel Efficiency Clean Diesels Climate Change/CO 2 Emissions Safety Performance Market Segmentation Cost! Gas-Electric Hybrids Response to these challenges takes many forms Fuel Cell Vehicles Research & Advanced Engineering 4

5 Challenges Impact of Energy Security Crude oil and fuel price has been generally high and volatile since US consumers have responded to fuel prices by beginning to shift from SUVs and trucks to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. elasticity Elasticity of segment shares to fuel price ( ) B C CD DE CUV SUV PU segment Research & Advanced Engineering 5

6 Challenges Hybrid-electric vehicle sales Shift to fuel-efficient vehicles is not uniform and homogeneous Hybrids: early adopters US Hybrid Vehicle Registrations ( ) Elasticity of segment shares to fuel price ( ) PJ Lamberson, University of Michigan Research & Advanced Engineering 6

7 Challenges CO2 Emissions Light-duty vehicles contribute 20% of US CO2 emissions, 17% in EU US transportation associated with ~ 6% of world CO2 Many sectors play a role New car share is small initially -- time is required for improvements to accumulate Research & Advanced Engineering 7

8 Challenges CO2 and Climate Change Growing recognition of reality and significance of climate change In our own industry, scenario planning reflects the magnitude of the challenge A TTW CO2 of 75 g/km corresponds to a fuel economy of 72 mpg Achieving significant fossil CO2 reductions in the transport sector is benefited by combinations of vehicle efficiency and fuel substitution actions New Fleet TTW (g CO2/km) ppm stabilization scenarios 550 ppm NA EU Pacific China India FSU Research & Advanced Engineering 8

9 Future Transportation Energy Fuel and Powertrain Diversity Powertrains Internal combustion engine (Hybrid) electric Fuel cell Fuels Gasoline Diesel Natural Gas Ethanol, Biodiesel Electricity Advanced Biofuels Hydrogen Research & Advanced Engineering 9

10 Future Transportation Energy All Fuels Are Not Created Equal Significant factor in vehicle range, package space, and cost One of the major obstacles to H2 as a transportation fuel Perhaps the major technological hurdle for battery electric vehicles Energy per unit volume (MJ/l) Lithium-Ion Battery 0 Fuel + Storage System Diesel Gasoline Ethanol E85 Gaseous Hydrogen (700 bar) Proposed DOE Hydrogen Goal Liquid Hydrogen Chemical Hydrides Nickel Metal Hydride Battery Lead-Acid Battery Energy per unit weight (MJ/kg) Research & Advanced Engineering 10

11 Future Transportation Energy Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Potential Bridging technology could help pave the way for adoption of fuel cells Engine modifications enable H2 fueling Near zero emissions Issues Range Airport Shuttle Bus 6.8L V-10 Hydrogen Supercharged Engine 12 passengers Research & Advanced Engineering 11

12 Future Transportation Energy Hydrogen Fuel Cell Potential Zero emissions (H2O) High efficiency Issues Temperature extremes Durability Cost Ford Focus Fuel Cell Fleet Sacramento, CA 8 SE Michigan 8 Vancouver, BC 5 Orlando, FL 5 Berlin, Germany 3 Aachen, Germany 1 Research & Advanced Engineering 12

13 Future Transportation Energy Plug-In Hybrid Potential Extends vehicle range and indicated fuel economy Benefits from limited range of typical daily commute Shifts some CO2 emissions to power sector Issues Battery weight, cost Shifts some CO2 emissions to power sector HySeries hydrogen fuel cell plug-in hybrid Research & Advanced Engineering 13

14 Future Transportation Energy Supply Tradeoffs Sun Energy Source Fossil Biomass Photons, Wind, Water Primary Energy Carrier Refinery, Distillery Plant Power Plant Processing Steps Liquid Fuel Hydrogen Grid Electricity Fuel Biomass: use as fuel feedstock or energy source at power plant? Renewable electricity: make hydrogen or grid electricity? How do emerging technologies (e.g., sequestration) and potential policies (e.g., cap-and-trade, carbon tax) change the outcomes? Research & Advanced Engineering 14

15 A View From Ford Overall Findings We are entering an era of powertrain and fuel diversity Biofuels are appealing from both CO2 and energy security perspectives How much will be available and when? Hydrogen offers very low emissions Storage, production, and distribution are significant challenges Electric vehicles can provide good performance and low WTW emissions Hindered by battery technology and charging physics There is a real opportunity to: Help us understand the risks and hedges associated with these diverse choices Identify how cross-sector tradeoffs and interactions may affect the fuel landscape Understand how most efficiently to realize energy security and CO2 goals Research & Advanced Engineering 15

16 A View From Ford Questions Research & Advanced Engineering 16

17 Ford Research and Advanced Engineering People Competency 1,300 people 1/3 each PhD, Masters, Bachelors Stability R&A average 15 years in position Diversity Extremely diverse as measured by nationality, education, culture, and geography Research & Advanced Engineering 17

18 CO 2, Energy Reduction Scenarios Projected per-vehicle CO 2 emission reductions starting in 2000 to meet different CO 2 stabilization levels 80 % change in CO2 emissions (relative to 2000) ΔWRE % FC imp. ΔWRE % FC imp. ΔWRE % FC imp. -20 ΔWRE % FC imp Substantial CO2 reductions required, e.g., 60% for 550 ppm Fuel substitution, efficiency improvements, other actions Research & Advanced Engineering 18

19 Fuel Substitution/Energy Conversion Actions Gasoline and diesel HEVs using renewable fuels can achieve well-to-wheels CO 2 comparable to fossil-fuel based H 2 FCEVs, but at slightly higher tailpipe emissions Emissions/CO 2 tradeoffs differentiate various options New infrastructures are required to reach zero CO 2 Tailpipe NOx Emissions Tier 2 Bin 5 (Stage V) 0.07 g/mile PZEV 0.02 g/mile ZEV 0 g/mile Renewable Diesel Engine Renewable SI Engine Renewable H 2 FCEV Infrastructure Changes Carbon Sequestration Renewable Fuels (H 2 or Bio-Fuels) Powertrain Technology Limit Advanced Diesel Engine Diesel Engine Hybrid Gasoline Engine Hybrid H 2 (NG) FCEV Advanced Gasoline Engine Current Gasoline Engine Well to Wheels CO 2 (g/km) Research & Advanced Engineering 19

20 Energy Sources: CO 2 /Cost Tradeoffs GHG avoided from the reference case 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Biomass Advanced 5% fleet substitution scenario Wind & Nuclear Biomass Conventional The reference case is gasoline + diesel in the expected demand ratio in 2010 Hydrogen from NG Ref+FC (fossil) CNG DME ex NG Syndiesel ex wood DME ex wood EtOH ex sugar beet EtOH ex wood FAME Hyd ex NG, FC Hyd ex wood, ICE Hyd ex wood, FC Hyd ex nuclear+ely, ICE Hyd ex nuclear+ely, FC Hyd ex wind+ely, ICE Hyd ex wind+ely, FC Hyd ind gasoline, ref+fc 10% CNG 0% Cost (EUR/t CO 2eq avoided) Hyd ind NG/MeOH, ref+fc Hyd ind Wood/MeOH, ref+fc EtOH ex Wheat Source: EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE WTW Study, 2003 Research & Advanced Engineering 20

21 Vehicle Efficiency: Tracking the Energy Inertia, Braking 8 Hybrid- Ization Weight Reduction Fuel Engine Transmission, Driveline 14 Rolling 3 Low- Rolling Tires Weight Reduction Engine Losses 62 Idle 16 Accessories 2 Drivetrain 6 Aero 3 Aero Drag Frontal Area Combustion Eff. Engine Control A/C Cycle Parasitic Losses Parasitic Losses Engine Shutoff High-Eff Alt. Dynamic Range Dynamic Range Hybridization Electrical Acc. Research & Advanced Engineering 21

22 Vehicle Efficiency/Cost Value Curve Cumulative Cost Friction, Other Parasitic Loss Reductions, Combustion Technologies, Energy Recovery, Advanced Materials, 0 Cumulative Fuel Economy Improvement After Diana Brehob, Lorelei Muñiz, Tom Kenney, Ford Motor Company Incremental improvements to existing technology still effective and important! Research & Advanced Engineering 22

23 The Future Fuel and Powertrain Diversity Gasoline Ethanol blends up to 10% Diesel Biodiesel blends up to 5% Ethanol (E85) Biofuels Second-Generation Biofuels Lignocellulosic Higher alcohols Electricity Plug-in hybrids Battery electrics Hydrogen Internal combustion engines Fuel cells Electricity Hydrogen Research & Advanced Engineering 23

24 Research & Advanced Engineering 24

25 Sustainability Our Competitor s Positions OEM Sustainability Climate Change Fuel Economy Global Vision 2010: ideal stance to be adopted for the benefit of people, society, and the global environment. Toyota will continue efforts to contribute to realizing a sustainable society through making things Vision for Honda - to be recognized as "a company that society wants to exist." Honda believes there is no single solution to America's future energy needs. Advanced technologies and alternative fuels (biofuels [ethanol, biodiesel from cellulosics], natural gas, and fuel-cells) will both play a role. 3 Pillars of Sustainability (Ghosn): Corporate Governance, Corporate Citizenship, and Environment. Society urgently demands environmental progress from our industry. GM expanding and accelerating commitment to develop electrically driven vehicles, beyond fuel cell and hybrid programs. Remains committed to fuel cell development and continue to make significant progress in this area. Continues to see fuel cells as the best long-term solution for reducing dependence on oil. (2006) While it is unclear how closely one [earth surface temperature rise] correlates to the other [atmospheric CO2], it would be a mistake not to pay attention." "Honda recognizes global climate change and energy sustainability as the critical environmental challenges of the day and believes it has a responsibility to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions " CO2 reduction is included as one of the key management performance indicators (along with quality, cost, timing) "We recognize that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing, and we believe there is a constructive way for all stakeholders to move forward together on this issue. The basic challenge is best addressed through voluntary initiatives and marketoriented measures, not government mandates." Second Toyota North American Environmental Action Plan, Goal #1 "achieve best-in-class fuel efficiency performance." 2010 Target - Improve CAFE in US by 5% from 2005 levels. "Internal combustion engines will remain the primary power source for mobility at least until around 2020 and we think it critically important to improve their efficiency and fuel economy." "Nissan Green Program 2010" will increase fuel economy starting from 2010; internal aim to reduce CO2 emissions by 40% over 10 years. GM is committed to increasing fuel economy and reducing emissions, and is an industry leader in applying fuelsaving advanced technologies to highvolume production vehicles. Research & Advanced Engineering 25

26 Sustainability Meanings and Implications for Our Business Economic Social Environmental Beginning of Life Energy Emissions End of Life Energy Emissions In Use Energy Emissions Criteria Pollutants CO2 Research & Advanced Engineering 26

27 Sustainability Drivers Life-Cycle CO2 In-use phase dominates life-cycle CO2 emissions of vehicles Research Advanced Program Support Research & Advanced Engineering 27 Strategic Future Near Future New Programs

28 Sustainability Drivers CO2 and Climate Change Research & Advanced Engineering 28

29 LDV Fleet WTW CO 2 Emissions for 550-ppm Stabilization Full Fleet WTW CO2 (Mt) Africa Latin America Middle East India Other Asia China Eastern Europe FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Research & Advanced Engineering 29

30 LDV Fleet WTW CO 2 Emissions for ppm Stabilization Full Fleet WTW CO2 (Mt) Africa Latin America Middle East India Other Asia China Eastern Europe FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Research & Advanced Engineering 30

31 Research & Advanced Engineering 31

32 550 may not be sufficient to keep temp increase to less than 2 C; 450 may Research & Advanced Engineering 32