Recent Trends in Certified Organic Tree Fruit

Transcription

1 Recent Trends in Certified Organic Tree Fruit Washington State 214 Data extraction: Nov.13, 214 Document date: Jan. 12, 215 Preliminary data Elizabeth Kirby and David Granatstein WSU-Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources In cooperation with Washington State Department of Agriculture Organic Food Program and Oregon Tilth Certified Organic

2 Consumer Demand Growth of US Organic Food Sales Organic Sales (Bil $) Fruits & Vegetables Total Organic Food Retail organic food sales increased 11.5% in 213. Organic fruits and vegetable sales increased 15% and were 33% of all organic food sales; 1% of all fruits and vegetables sold in U.S. in 213 were organic. Source: OTA, Nutrition Business Journal

3 Organic Tree Fruit Acres Washington State (Preliminary) ARS Photo --- Certified acres --- % Change Transition acres * Apple 15,735 14,79 14,296 13,657 14,3 14,5.5 4, Pear 1,964 2,33 1,917 1,9 1,82 1, Cherry 2,437 2,147 1,826 1,792 1,837 1, Apricot* Peach&Nectarine 1,238 1,251 1,146 1,16 1,58 1, Plum&Prune* Mixed stone Total* 21,799 2,658 19,59 18,855 18,941 19, , *214 is preliminary data; apricot includes aprium; plum includes pluot and plumcot; totals do not include mixed tree fruit Tree fruit has a 22% share of all organic acreage in Washington State; Accounted for ~65% of farmgate sales in 211 (apple >5%) Preliminary 214 WSDA data

4 US Organic Apple Area (Acres, estimated) State WA* 4,228 6,54 7,3 6,721 8,18 12,936 15,735 14,296 14,5 CA* 4,423 4,853 4,45 3,42 3,9 3,393 3,45 3,334 3,392 CO OR Other West 2,76 2,392 1, West total 11,58 14,77 12,554 11,396 13,196 17,584 >2, 18, Midwest ,27 -- NY & NE S & SE US Total 12,38 15,44 13,21 12,54 14,67 18,465 >21, 2, *WA 214 preliminary value from WSDA only. **CA values from CDFA, 214 value is for 213. >9 % in arid west Combined data sets from WSU-CSANR,USDA-ERS, USDA-NASS; Other West states include ID, MT, NM, NV, UT; updated 211 to ERS values exc. CA values are from CDFA

5 Photo: F. Peryea Acres 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Certified apple Alar $ drop Organic Apple Acreage Washington State (Preliminary) MD Transition apple $ drop $ drop Retail chains ,5 ac = 9% of WA apple bearing acreage (based on 213 WA-NASS estimate of 156, acres) Some historical events that have influenced organic apple production include the Alar incident, price volatility ($ Drop), the introduction of mating disruption (MD) for codling moth control, and market entry by national chain supermarkets (Retail chains). Preliminary 214 WSDA data

6 WA Fuji; ARS Photo Organic Apple Variety Acres Washington 214 Gala Fuji Honeycrisp Red Delicious Granny Smith Cripps Pink Golden Delicious Cameo Braeburn Other Goldens Pinova Organic Transition Acres Fuji and Gala = 47% of certified apple acres; Honeycrisp tops Red and Granny Preliminary 214 WSDA data; Cripps Pink includes Pink lady; Pinova includes Pinata and Sonata

7 Organic Varieties Washington State Acres Trend Photo: B. Barritt Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified GALA Transition 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified FUJI Transition Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition RED 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition HONEYCRISP Preliminary 214 WSDA data

8 Organic Varieties Washington State Acres Trend Photo: ARS Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition GRANNY SMITH 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition CRIPPS PINK Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition GOLDEN TYPES Preliminary 214 WSDA data

9 Organic Specialty Apples Washington State Over 1 varieties of WA organic apples 5-1 ac: Ambrosia, Jonagold, Opal 11-5 ac: Autumn Glory, Empire, Ginger Gold, Golden Supreme, Jazz, Jubilee, Kanzi, Lady Alice, McIntosh, Minneiska (SweeTango ), Pacific Rose, RosaLynn 1-1 ac: Arkansas Black, Blondee, Gravenstein, Earligold, Envy, Liberty, Rome, Cortland, Sansa, Spitzenberg, Tsugaru, Winesap, Winter Banana, Zestar! WA Apple Commission Varieties listed in WSDA producer directory: Preliminary 214 WSDA data

10 Washington Apple Volume Conventional and Organic Apple volume (Boxes*1) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Conventional Organic Annual prices are typically reported for a proportion of total boxes shipped rather than total volume of boxes shipped. Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc. & Washington Growers Clearing House; organic season average FOB history; priced boxes all grades,sizes, storage

11 Organic % of all apples shipped Organic Share of Apple Shipments Washington State /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Data are for fresh packed apples only Additional organic apples may be sold as conventional or to processors Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

12 Organic Apple Sales Volume and Price Trends - WA Boxes *1 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 7/1 $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ $/Box FOB Priced Boxes Shipped Boxes US$ per Box Annual prices are typically reported for a proportion of total boxes shipped rather than total volume of boxes shipped. Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc. & Washington Growers Clearing House; organic season average FOB history; priced boxes all grades,sizes, storage

13 Total Shipped Organic Volume by year and variety, Washington State Boxes *1 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , , Season totals 23/4 to 213/ Gala Fuji Red Delicious Granny Smith 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/ ARS Photo Over 2.4 million boxes of organic Gala sold for 212 crop Data: Washington Growers Clearing House & Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

14 Total Shipped Organic Volume by year and variety, Washington State 2, 1,5 Season totals 23/4 to 213/14 Boxes *1 1, Golden Delicious Cripps Pink Honeycrisp 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 ARS Photo Data: Washington Growers Clearing House & Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

15 214 WA Organic Apple Crop Season to date 214 organic crop estimate +5% above 212 Organic apple shipments up 18% over last year Organic shipments YTD over last year up for every variety Almost all conventional apple prices compared to last year, while organic prices are mixed Organic premiums ~$12-18/box (~4-9%) over conventional

16 214 WA Organic Apple Crop Boxes * Increase 214 Previous High % Gala 3,17 2, Fuji 2,491 2, Red Del. 1,11 1, Golden Del Granny Smith Honeycrisp Cripps Pink Total Crop 1,129 9, Data: Washington State Tree Fruit Assoc. and Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

17 WA Organic Apple Crop 1 Million Boxes * Crop est Shipped Comparison of recent organic apple crop size estimates (December 1) with actual season-end volume shipped *Shipped as of 12/21/14 Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc. and Washington State Tree Fruit Assoc.

18 214 WA Organic Apple Crop Share of Acres vs Crop Volume Variety % of Crop % of Acres Acres Gala ,333 Fuji ,235 Red Del ,344 Golden Del Granny Smith ,223 Honeycrisp ,727 Cripps Pink Braeburn Cameo Other Data: WSDA and Washington State Tree Fruit Assoc.

19 Price Trends Washington Apples $/SEB $5 $4 $3 Gala Organic 7/1/14 $/SEB $5 $4 $3 Fuji 7/1/14 $2 $2 $1 $ Conventional $1 $ Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes. Annual data points represent season averages: season approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug. SEB=standard equivalent box of 4 lb.

20 Photo: B. Barritt Price Trends Washington Apples Red Delicious Golden Delicious $5 $5 $/SEB $4 $3 $2 Organic 7/1/14 $/SEB $4 $3 $2 7/1/14 $1 $ Conventional $1 $ NY Apple Assoc. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes. Annual data points represent season averages: season approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug.

21 Price Trends Washington Apples $/SEB $5 $4 $3 $2 Granny Smith Organic Cripps Pink WA Apple Comm. 7/1/14 7/1/14 7/1/14 $/SEB $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Conventional $1 $ Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes. Annual data points represent season averages: season runs approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug.

22 Price Trends Washington Apples Honeycrisp Braeburn $/SEB $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Organic Conventional /1/14 $/SEB $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ 7/1/ Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes. Annual data points represent season averages: season runs approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug.

23 Organic Premiums Washington Apples $2 $/Box $15 $1 Gala Red Del Fuji $5 $ /1/14 Photo: B. Barritt Percent 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Gala Red Del Fuji /1/14 Premiums are expressed as the price difference between organic and conventional, as $ per box, or as a % Data: Washington Growers Clearing House Annual data points represent season averages: season runs approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug.

24 Organic Premiums Washington 213 Apple Crop Conv. price $/box Organic price $/box Premium $/box Premium % Fuji Gala Honeycrisp Red Delicious Golden Delicious Granny Smith Cameo Jonagold Ginger Gold Braeburn Cripps Pink Piñata Ambrosia Prices are for period 9/1/13-7/1/14 Data: Washington Growers Clearing House Annual data season to July 1 214

25 Organic Premiums Washington 214 Apple Crop Box Price a Premium b % Premium Conv Org $/box This Yr Last Yr Fuji Gala Honeycrisp Red Del. = Golden Del Granny Smith Cameo = Jonagold Braeburn Cripps Pink Ambrosia a represents 214 price compared to previous year, season to date as of early December; b Premium for 214 season to date as of early December

26 Modeled Prices of WA Organic Apples with Increasing Sales Volume Box Price, All Apples Organic Shipments as % of All WA Apple Shipments 6% 8% 1% 12% Organic Price ($/box FOB) $26.* $34.8 $ $23.* $3.79 $ $2. $26.77 $24.45 $22.13 $19.82 $17. $22.75 $2.78 $18.81 $16.85 *Extrapolated prices Source: D. O Rourke, /14 Season; Actual Organic Share of Sales Volume = 6.4% All Apples Organic Apples Predicted Avg. Box Price (FOB) $23.84 $41.25 $32.44 Refer to slide 11 for trend of actual organic apple share of all WA apple sales volume Data: Washington Growers Clearing House

27 National Apple Retail vs WA Shipping Point Price Gala, Retail Fuji, Retail $/box $/lb Organic Conventional Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Gala, Shipping point Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Dotted lines are linear trends Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Fuji, Shipping point Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Data: USDA-AMS

28 Organic Apple Price Premium Comparison 12 1 Gala Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Retail % Prem. FOB % Prem. Linear (Retail % Prem.) Linear (FOB % Prem.) Fuji Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Illustrates the price premium (%) of organic compared to conventional apples at retail and at the shipping point (FOB). Premiums at both points in the supply chain have been trending upwards (linear trend line) Retail % Prem. Linear (Retail % Prem.) FOB % Prem. Linear (FOB % Prem.) Data: USDA-AMS

29 World Organic Apple Area 212 Acres (Cert + Trans) % change from 211 World 196,511 2 US ~2,*? Canada Europe 159, Poland (87,376) (39) France (13,392) (1) Germany (11,69) (47) Turkey 7,422 2 China 3,952*? Argentina 3, Chile 2, New Zealand 1, Australia 818*? WA organic apples, ,5 ac cert. ~7% of US ~45% of world certified area (212) Europe is the leading region for producing organic tree fruits. ~7% of world organic apple area *data not updated regularly Data courtesy of H: Willer, FiBL

30 Organic Apple Trends Expansion of Global Area Acres* 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, *Certified + Transition acres World US Europe S. Amer. Austr/NZ Data courtesy of H: Willer, FiBL

31 3, Organic Tree Fruit Trends Expansion of Global Area 25, Acres* 2, 15, 1, Cherry Pear Peach/Nect Plum 5, *Certified + Transition acres Data courtesy of H: Willer, FiBL

32 Global Expansion of Organic Fruit Area D.Granatstein, E. Kirby and H. Willer Presented at the 2 nd International Organic Fruit Research Symposium, Leavenworth WA, July 212. Video presentation of international data can be viewed at: F986E58&index=36&feature=plpp_video

33 Organic Pear Acreage Washington State 2,5 2, 2,33 1,84 Acres 1,5 1, Certified pear Transition pear 214 organic = 8.8% of total WA pear acreage (based on WA-NASS 213 value of 2,9 pear acres) Preliminary 214 WSDA data

34 214 WA Organic Pear Crop Season to date Estimated 214 crop 1.8 mill boxes, up 5% over 213 Organic pear shipments up 21% over last year Shipments YTD over last year up for all varieties Organic pear prices up compared to YTD last year USDA-ARS

35 Organic Pear Acres by Variety Washington 214 Concorde 2% Tosca 2% Asian 2% Other & NS 2% Red Types 11% Bartlett 32% Bosc 17% ARS Photo D'Anjou 32% Preliminary 214 WSDA data; NS = not specified

36 Organic Pear Variety Trend Washington State 1 8 D'Anjou Bartlett Bosc Red types Other or NS Acres Photo: Agyle Preliminary 214 WSDA data

37 Organic Specialty Pears Washington State 212 Over 25 varieties of organic pears and Asian pears grown in WA, from small to larger quantities. >25 ac Concorde, Comice, Tosca, Asian Acreage unknown - Belle Pickard, Flemish Beauty, Forelle, Maxine, Moonglow, Seckel, others Varieties show on WSDA producer list: Preliminary 214 WSDA data

38 WA Organic Pear Sales Volume and Price Trends Boxes *1 1, /14 Organic share of WA pears shipped = 6.4% $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ $ SEB FOB Priced Boxes Total Shipped Boxes US$ per Box SEB = Standard Equivalent Box of 44 lb. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House & Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc. Annual organic prices are typically reported for only a proportion of total shipped volume.

39 $/SEB $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Bartlett Organic $5 Bosc $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Price Trends Washington Pears Conventional $/SEB $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ D Anjou Bosc photo: US Pear SEB = Standard Equivalent Box; Data: Washington Growers Clearing House. Annual data points represent FOB season price averages.

40 Price Trends Washington Pears $5 Red Bartlett $5 Red D Anjou $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 Organic Conventional $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $ SEB = Standard Equivalent Box; Data: Washington Growers Clearing House. Annual data points represent FOB season price averages.

41 Organic Premiums Washington Pears Hedrich, 1921 $/SEB $2 $15 $1 $5 Bartlett D'Anjou Bosc $ Percent 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Bartlett D'Anjou Bosc % SEB = Standard Equivalent Box; Data: Washington Growers Clearing House. Annual data points represent FOB season price averages.

42 Organic Cherry Acreage Washington State (sweet + tart) 3, 2,5 2,437 2, 1,932 Acres 1,5 1, Certified cherry Transition cherry 214 organic = 5.2% of total WA cherry area (based on 212 WA-NASS estimate of 37,1 acres) Preliminary 214 WSDA data

43 Organic Cherry Variety Acres Washington State 214 Other Sweet Sweetheart 1% 4% Skeena 8% Variety NS 24% Rainier 7% Chelan 12% Bing 16% Tart 19% 24% of cherries not reported by variety in 214 compared to 57% in 28 Preliminary 214 WSDA data; NS = not specified

44 Photo: OMAFRA Cherry Price Trends Washington State $/SEB $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ BING Organic ALL Organic ALL Conventional SEB = Standard Equivalent Box of 18 lb. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; Conventional prices are from season FOB avg. price histories; may include organic Organic prices are from season FOB histories, all grades and sizes.

45 WA Organic Cherries Area, Volume and Price Trends 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Acres Shipped boxes (x1) Price $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Ave. Price ($/SEB) Shipped boxes SEB = Standard Equivalent Box of 2 lb. except for 15 lb. Priced boxes SEB=18 lb. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House & Washington State Tree Fruit Assoc. Prices are season average from FOB histories, all grades and sizes.

46 ARS photo gallery ARS Photo Other WA Organic Stone Fruit Acreage Certified acres Plum/Prune Apricot Nectarine Peach Transition acres Preliminary 214 WSDA data

47 Value of WA Organic Tree Fruits (Mil $) Sales Year Farmgate Value Crop Year Packed Value Apple Pear Cherry Other >11.?? Total >248 >32 >343 Sales year = Jan.-Dec., regardless of when the crop was harvested. Crop year = value of the crop harvested in the given year, that may be sold over multiple years; uses Packed value which is FOB. Data: WSDA, Washington Growers Clearing House, Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

48 Packed Fruit Sales (Million $) Value of WA Organic Apples and Pears Apple Pear Based on shipped volume for the crop (e.g., 28 harvest was shipped in both 28 and 29) and estimated weighted average price per packed box during the same period. Solid line is polynomial trend line estimate. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House, Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

49 6 Export Value of U.S. Organic Foods Export Value (Mil. $) Other Leaf lettuce Blueberry Grapes Pear Cherry Apple Canada, Mexico are main markets Jan-Oct 214: Apples -22%, pears -7%, cherries +22%, compared to 213 Imports of apples and pears increasing; up 9-1% in 214 Data: USDA-FAS GATS

50 Organic Apple and Pear Exports Washington State Organic Exports (Boxes* 1) 1, /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 WA Apple WA Pear Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

51 Washington Organic Apple Top Export Destinations Organic Exports (Boxes * 1) /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Canada EU Asia/S. Pac Mexico MidEast Caribbean, S.A., C.A. Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

52 Organic Exports (Boxes *1) 1, WA Organic Apple Exports by Variety /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Other Golden Del Granny Fuji Red Del Gala 35-4% of exports = Gala Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

53 14 WA Organic Pear Exports by Variety Organic Exports (Boxes*1) /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Other Bosc Bartlett D'Anjou Data: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Assoc.

54 \ More information on Washington organic tree fruit statistics is available on-line at: Citation: Kirby, E. and D. Granatstein Recent trends in certified organic tree fruit in Washington State: 214. Organic Trend Series, Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University, Wenatchee, WA.