3/17/2016. Ross Pruitt Associate Professor. What is happening? What may happen? Economic/management considerations
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1 Ross Pruitt Associate Professor What is happening? What may happen? Economic/management considerations Mil. Head 40 JANUARY 1 COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual = 30.3 Million Head +3.5 Percent = 9.3 Million Head +0.1 Percent Beef Dairy C-N-02 02/01/16 1
2 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Beef 2016 = 30.3 Million Head +3.5 Percent C-N-02 02/01/16 U.S. Total: /5/2016 U.S. Total: /5/2016 2
3 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 3
4 Cents Per Pound RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Retail Pork Price Retail Chicken Price, Whole Fresh Retail Beef Price Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS $ Per Cwt. 280 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs., Carcass, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-62 03/14/16 $ Per Cwt CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value Lbs., Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-68 03/14/16 4
5 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES Southern Plains, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-52 03/14/16 Pounds 950 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-18 03/11/16 Thou. Head STEER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 4.6% higher YTD Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-17 03/11/16 5
6 Thou. Head CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-08 03/11/16 Mil. Pounds BEEF PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly 2.4% higher YTD Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS M-S-18 03/14/16 Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ C-N-10 02/19/16 6
7 Mil. Head FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ C-N-08 02/19/16 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING MORE THAN 700 POUNDS 1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly Mil. Head JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ C-N-08B 02/19/16 Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED OVER 120 DAYS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ , Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-12 02/19/16 7
8 $ Per Steer AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 750 Lb. Steers. S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: January Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 01/20/16 $ Per Cwt 175 CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: January Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-21 01/20/16 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-49 02/29/16 8
9 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-54 03/14/16 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly 2013 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-54 03/14/16 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-35 03/14/16 9
10 Thou. Head TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-14 03/11/16 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Bil. Pounds 4.0 U.S. BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC 10
11 $ Per Cwt U.S. STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S %
12 U.S. Total: 1310 $ Per Cow U.S. ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC 12
13 Bil. Pounds U.S. COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2010/ , Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Bil. Pounds 11.0 RTC BROILER PRODUCTION Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2010/ , Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Bil. Pounds COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2010/ , Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC 13
14 QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Real Dollar (5) Change from Previous Quarter Percent Change Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index 120 Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = Jan-78 Jan-81 Jan-84 Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan 14
15 2015 Annual Average 2016 Projected Annual Average Fed Cattle $148.12/cwt $134- $136/cwt Southern Plains # Southern Plains # $208.21/cwt $159- $164/cwt $251.25/cwt $195- $/cwt 2016 Projected Third Quarter $132- $135/cwt $160- $164/cwt $196- $203/cwt 2017 Projected Annual Average $130- $136/cwt $156- $162/cwt $190- $197/cwt Increasing cattle numbers increases need for marketing strategy for stockers/feeders Risk management strategies Cost management Return of seasonality Crop factors What will be peak inventory number for this cattle cycle? Cash flow concerns? Managing costs 15
16 2015 Annual Average 2016 Projected Annual Average Fed Cattle $148.12/cwt $134- $136/cwt Southern Plains # Southern Plains # $208.21/cwt $159- $164/cwt $251.25/cwt $195- $/cwt 2016 Projected Third Quarter $132- $135/cwt $160- $164/cwt $196- $203/cwt 2017 Projected Annual Average $130- $136/cwt $156- $162/cwt $190- $197/cwt 16
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