Climate uncertainties and RP positions in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

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1 Climate uncertainties and RP positions in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Graciano P. Yumul, Jr. Department of Science and Technology Bicutan, Taguig City National Institute of Geological Sciences College of Science, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City

2 ISSUE Where are we, what do we know, what have we done, and what needs to be accomplished when, how and why?

3 OUTLINE Recent global science Last 5 years in RP 2009 in RP Issues on climate change RP UNFCCC positions Make it happen

4 OUTLINE Recent global science Last 5 years in RP 2009 in RP Issues on climate change RP UNFCCC positions Make it happen

5 GLOBAL DATA AFTER 2007: NEW OBSERVATIONS Melting of glaciers doubled after 2000 Increase in precipitation and total atmospheric moisture content Solar activity cannot account for increased temperatures Ice sheet dynamic is a major factor in sea level rise and moisture content (Fussel 2009) Philippine Star

6 ICE SHEET DYNAMIC

7 GLOBAL REALITIES With insufficient knowledge, the course taken involves: 1. Emission reduction to keep impacts and adaptation costs at the minimum 2. Adaptation to remaining impacts to minimize damage 3. Bearing costs of unavoidable residual knowledge (Parry 2009; Liverman, 2009)

8 OUTLINE Recent global science Last 5 years in RP 2009 in RP Issues on climate change RP UNFCCC positions Make it happen

9 WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE COUNTRY

10 LAST 5 YEARS: Philippine Setting 2004: REINA El Niño condition 2005: Lull before the storm 2006: Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte El Niño condition Reming in Albay 3 Super Typhoons MT Solar Oil Spill in offshore Guimaras Two tropical cyclones in PAR 2007: Dry spell in Luzon La Niña condition Wet spell in Mindanao: Should have been dry 2008: TY Frank Central Philippine direction Destruction of Panay

11 GUINSAUGON LANDSLIDE, SOUTHERN LEYTE

12 SOUTHWESTERLIES

13 CORRECT FORECAST, PROACTIVE PREPARATIONS, ALL OUT COMMUNICATION AND SHEPHERDING State of Calamity 1. Geographic setting and characteristics 2. Unaccustomed people and institutions 3. System overwhelmed 4. Risk denial Manila Bulletin/Philippine Star

14 FLOOD/STORM DATA (ADB 2009)

15 OUTLINE Recent global science Last 5 years in RP 2009 in RP Issues on climate change RP UNFCCC positions Make it happen

16 2009 EVENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES January: Cagayan de Oro Cold front with much rain April-May: Magallanes, Sorsogon Very wet summer June: TY Feria Central Philippine Trackline

17 2009 EVENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES August: Dry but should be wet 1 Tropical cyclone September: 5 Tropical Cyclones; very wet Ondoy October: Dry condition Pepeng, a first timer

18 TS FERIA

19 TY KIKO MODIS

20 Zambales

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22 P A R LINE P A R L I N E P A R L I N E P A R LINE

23 Location:110 km EAST of APARRI, CAGAYAN Max Wind: 120 KPH Gustiness : 150 KPH Moving Almost Stationary P A R L I N E P A R LINE P A R L I N E P A R LINE

24 MAX WINDS: 12O KPH GUSTINESS: 150 KPH MOVEMENT: WSW 22 KPH P A R LINE P A R L I N E P A R L I N E P A R LINE

25 ACTUAL RAINFALL

26 REALITIES Too much water in the north Water scarcity in the south Too much uncertainty

27 IMPACTS Ketsana (TS Ondoy): Too much water; 100 year flood in Metropolitan Manila Parma (TY Pepeng): Multiple-entry; Flooding in northern-central Luzon Lupit (TY Ramil): Long duration; Evacuation fatigue Mirinae (TY Santi): Flooding in southern Luzon; Quick, windy and well-behaved

28 OUTLINE Recent global science Last 5 years in RP 2009 in RP Issues on climate change RP UNFCCC positions Make it happen

29 IS THIS CLIMATE CHANGE? Tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and duration: Atlantic vs Pacific RP: intensity, duration changes Two tropical cyclones in PAR: 1990, 2006, 2009 SW monsoon (habagat): Frank in Iloilo, Kiko in Zambales, Ondoy in NCR too much water

30 Track of Typhoon FRANK (June 18-23, 2008) Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Typhoon

31 IS THIS CLIMATE CHANGE? Bicol September 2009 low pressure area (LPA): Too much rain Dateline (Modoki) El Niño: Reverse signatures Wet El Niño, dry La Niña: Becoming the norm? Water stress: Too much, too little at the wrong places

32 OUTLINE Recent global science Last 5 years in RP 2009 in RP Issues on climate change RP UNFCCC positions Make it happen

33 BALI ACTION PLAN FOUR PILLARS 1. Mitigation: Low Carbon 2. Adaptation: Less vulnerable 3. Technology Transfer: IP & appropriateness 4. Financing: Risk transfer to risk spreading

34 ISSUES AND POSITIONS Historical responsibility: Polluters pay GHG emission cap: Legally binding GHG reduction and not offsetting Adaptation than mitigation Mainstreaming adaptations with financial compensation Archipelagic nation states are vulnerable

35 ISSUES AND POSITIONS Financial compensation that is adequate, accessible, predictable and sustainable Participation in the decision-making process of the Adaptation Fund New money over and above Official Development Assistance Technology access and capability building financially enabled by the Convention

36 OUTLINE Recent global science Last 5 years in RP 2009 in RP Issues on climate change RP UNFCCC positions Make it happen

37 IMPACTS Economic productivity Food security Health and water safety Infrastructure and road networks Education Development Loss of lives

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44 RECOGNITIONS Disaster risk management is an economic issue Climate change is not anymore a science issue Climate change adaptation is a policy and governance issue Climate uncertainties is the norm

45 SUMMARY The global climate is changing. The whole world is changing. The environment is changing. The country is changing. The community is changing. The individual must innovate!

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