PAKISTAN RAIN/FLOOD 2011

Transcription

1 2011 PAKISTAN RAIN/FLOOD 2011 (Interim Report IV) Report on Flash floods, breaches in canals and damage to infrastructure & agriculture sectors in Sind Province (The period under report is from Aug 08 to Sep 28) September 30, 2011

2 Table of Contents 1.0 Summary Rainfall and Flash Floods Crop Situation Damages to Infrastructure Badin Mirpur Khas UmerKot Tando Muhammad Khan Thatta Tando Allah Yar Sanghar Shaheed Benazir Abad Dadu Matiari Hyderabad Tharparker Naushahro Feroze Khairpur Jacobabad Jamshoro Jaffarabad Jal Magsi Nasirabad 48 SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN

3 4.20 Vehari Kasur Bawalnagar Inundation Duration Statistics Results 53 SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN

4 1.0 SUMMARY This fourth report has been prepared in the context of Letter of Agreement (LoA) signed between SUPARCO and FAO on 31 July It covers the period from August 08 to September 28, The previous three reports were for the period August, 08-Aug to Sep 03, 2011 and 08-Aug to Sep 20, In present report inundation statistics for eight more districts of Sindh province i.e. Dadu, Matiari, Hyderabad, Tharparkar, Nausharo Feroze, Khairpur, Jacobabad and Jamshoro have been included. Inundation in three districts of Balochistan i.e. Jhal Magsi, Nasirabad and Jaffarabad and three districts of Punjab i.e. Vehri, Kasur and Bahalwalnager are also part of this report. The current monsoon is manifested by remarkably high rainfall in South Asia. In Pakistan, there were wide spread rains in the country. However the major thrust of rainfall was in Sindh province where cumulative rainfall varied from 400 mm to a little more than 1000 mm. The maximum rainfall during the period was from 1-July 2011 to 28-September The rainfall of the order of 1044 mm was observed in Mithi, Sindh. Being located in the heart of Thar Desert, the rate of soil infiltration was very high. The rate of runoff water was therefore minimal. The other areas that received excessive rainfal Mirpur Khas 700 mm, Badin 623 mm, Shaheed Benazir Abad 613, Chhor (Umerkot) 468 mm, Dadu 419 mm and Padidan 405 mm. The gradient of the coastal areas is almost horizontal and movement of water in the flooded area is taking place at a very slow pace. The result is that large rural areas, crops, and infrastructure are under water. For the first time after partition, the residents of Thar Desert and its upper reaches had to be evacuated by boats. A large number of farmers lost their livestock on way to safe places, on account of non availability of fodders and exertion. There is hardly a place in the severely affected area that is free of the hazard of standing water. The maximum cumulative rain fall received at various other locations in the country including the capital Islamabad 914 mm, Lahore in Punjab 506 mm, Malam Jabba in KPK 572 mm, Rawalakot in AJK 617 mm rainfall and Barkhan in Balochistan at 232 mm. These areas generally remained free of any major damage of crops although some SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 1 of 50

5 losses occurred to households and other infrastructures in these areas especially in KPK and Balochistan. SUPARCO monitored the flooded areas using MODIS sensors 250 m resolution on daily basis and high resolution satellite images from SPOT 4 and 5. In addition three teams visited the flood affected districts for one week, physically assessing crop damages. Another field visit would be essential during mid October to assess the rate of recession of water and status of sowing of the Rabi crops. The cotton crop in the affected areas has been mostly damaged. Some of the crop that is still surviving may not withstand this for extended period of time. The first picking of cotton was carried prior to rains. The total loss to cotton in affected districts is estimated at 80 percent at about million bales. The textile sector came under high speculations on the issue of cotton crop damages. The opinions generally remained divided, creating chaos in the sector. Sugarcane crop is so far secure to an extent from the ravages of flooding. It is advisable that Sindh Government assures commencement of sugar mill crushing season at an early date to avoid prolonged submergence of the cane. The chilies crop is also very demanding on drainage needs. The chilies growing areas received the first heavy spell of rain on 11th August. The major part of the crop suffered from defoliation and senescence. Some of the crop was picked prior to rains and some also survived despite damages. The area damage is about 90 percent. As some of the crop picking was carried prior to rains, the production damage is about 50 percent. This damage has been worked at 78.5 thousand tons from a crop of 155 thousand tons. The sugarcane crop has generally escaped damage. The rice crop was partially affected. Excessive damages are expected in Badin district /coastal areas where LBOD funneled large quantum of water from upstream areas prior to its ultimate delivery to sea. The rice crop generally escaped damage. However the submerged crop was damaged. About one third of the rice crop in these districts was damaged. The extent of damage is around million tons. The onion and tomato crops in the affected areas have been completely damaged. The chances of re-sowing a full scale crop are remote as water is still standing in the fields. However, percent of the crop is expected to be re-sown. The water drainage may speed up during low tidal activity. The damage estimate of onion is 356 thousand SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 2 of 45

6 tons from a crop of 660 thousand tons and tomato 70 thousand tons from a crop of 561 thousand tons. Pakistan is likely to face acute shortage of onion, chilies, tomato and other vegetables in winter months. The farmers cultivating off season vegetables can benefit from this. Govt. of Pakistan would have to take remedial measure to ensure steady supply of these minor crops of daily use. There was a massive displacement of human being and livestock. A large number of valuable livestock of the displaced farmers, migrating to safe heavens died on way because of hunger and exertions. 2.0 Rainfall and Flash Floods The monsoon rains in Pakistan during 2011 started with a normal tempo in July. In Punjab, the highest rainfall of the order of 438 mm was received in Lahore. About 14 stations in Punjab received rainfall higher than 200 mm, 08 stations more than 300 mm and 3 stations more than 400 mm rainfall. The cumulative rainfall for the years 2010 and 2011 during July 1 to Sep 28, 2011 is shown as below SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 3 of 45

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8 Punjab In Punjab, low level floods were observed in the rivers of Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej. India opened up water supplies during peak floods in the three eastern rivers of Ravi, Bayas and Sutlej. A high tide of cusecs passed through Sutlej on August and about cusecs on 24 -August The losses of crops in Punjab were manageable. SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 5 of 45

9 Punjab: Rainfall from 1-July to 28-September, 2011 Rainfall range More than 200mm More than 300mm More than 400mm No. of Met Met Stations Stations Chakwal, Noor Pur Thal, Bahawalnagar, Mandi- Bha-u-din, Joharabad, Kamra, 20 Mianwali, Jhelum, Sialkot, Islamabad, Lahore, Okara, Murree, Mangla, Sargodha, Sahiwal, Guranwala, Faisalabad, Khanpur, Shorkot 17 Noor Pur Thal, Bahawalnagar, Mandi-Bha-u-din, Joharabad, Kamra, Mianwali, Jhelum, Sialkot, Islamabad, Lahore, Okara, Murree, Mangla, Sargodha, Sahiwal, Guranwala, Faisalabad, 11 Kamra, Mianwali, Jhelum, Sialkot, Islamabad, Lahore, Okara, Murree, Mangla, Sargodha, Sahiwal, SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 6 of 45

10 Sindh Sindh: Rainfall from 1-July to 28-September, 2011 Rainfall range More than 200mm More than 300mm More than 400mm No. of Met Met Stations Stations 11 Thatta, Hyderabad, Chhor, Padidan, Badin, Mithi, Nawab Shah, Mirpur Khas, Dadu, Karachi, Kitchi Masroor 08 Hyderabad, Padidan, Badin, Mithi, Nawab Shah, Mirpur Khas, Chhor, Dadu 08 Hyderabad, Padidan, Badin, Mithi, Nawab Shah, Mirpur Khas, Chhor, Dadu SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 7 of 45

11 Khyber PakhtunKwa (KPK) KPK: Rainfall from 1-July to 28-September, 2011 Rainfall range More than 200mm More than 300mm More than 400mm No. of Met Met Stations Stations 09 Saidu Sharif, Balakot, Parachinar, Risalpur, Malam Jaba, Kakul, Kohat, Dir, Peshawar 07 Balakot, Parachinar, Risalpur, Malam Jaba, Kakul, Kohat, Dir, 06 Balakot, Parachinar, Risalpur, Malam Jaba, Kakul, Kohat, SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 8 of 45

12 Balochistan Balochistan: Rainfall from 1-July to 28-September, 2011 Rainfall range No of Met Stations Met Stations More than 200mm 02 Kalat, Barkhan More than 300mm NIL NIL More than 400mm NIL NIL SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 9 of 45

13 Gilgit Baltistan/AJK GB/AJK: Rainfall from 1-July to 28-September, 2011 Rainfall range More than 200mm More than 300mm More than 400mm No of Met Met Stations Stations 04 Gari Dopatta, Kotli, Rawalakot, Muzafarabad 04 Gari Dopatta, Kotli, Rawalakot, Muzafarabad 01 Gari Dopatta, Kotli, Rawalakot, Muzafarabad 3.0 Crop Situation Sugarcane, cotton, rice, maize, fodders, vegetables, fruits and spices are generally the major crops of Kharif season. The description of the important Kharif crops is as follows: Cotton The cotton crop is predominantly sown in Punjab and Sindh provinces. The crop generally escaped damage in Punjab and the prospects of an excellent crop in this province are bright. In Sindh, large volumes of water would be standing up to end of September. The cotton crop has been mostly damaged in these areas. The farmers were able to carry out one out of five pickings prior to rains around 11th August This SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 10 of 45

14 constituted 20 percent of the crop picked. About 5-10 percent of cotton crop escaped damage particularly in Kunri. The first phase in the demise of plants is an acute defoliation process. The plants loose leaves and photosynthetic activity comes to a naught. The plant ultimately dies. Despite that the bolls on the defoliated plants have matured. This makes additional 10 percent of the crop. The current loss is estimated at 65 percent. However this may increase to 80 percent as water is still standing in the root zone of the crop. The extent of damage is estimated at about million bales. The district wise details are as follows: District Sindh: Cotton Damages 1000 hec Kg/ha Damage factor 000 bales T.M.Khan Badin Thattta Mirpurkhas Tando Allah Yar Umerkot Sanghar Shaheed Benazir Abad Hyderabad Dadu Matiari KhairPur Jamshoro N.Feroz Tharparkar Jacobabad Total Punjab Kasur Bahawalnagar Vehari Total Baluchistan Nasir abad Jaffrabada Jhal Magsi Total Grand Total SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 11 of 45

15 Given the devolution of Ministry of Food and Agriculture, there is no central platform to provide a firsthand, nonstop, direct supply of time series information on crops. This makes the policy making decisions in agriculture including textile, very complicated. In such circumstances, the textile sector has undergone high speculations, on the issue of the quantum of cotton available for marketing. The opinions generally remained divided, funneling confusion and stimulating price rise up. Chilies Crop Chilies are mainly sown in Sindh, Punjab and Baluchistan. Hot dishes are generally not a constituent of KPK food basket. Therefore the cultivation of this crop did not pick up in this province. The chilies are sown both in Kharif and Rabi season in Sindh as winter in this province is generally frost free. In other regions, chilies are sown during summer when the ambient temperatures are generally hot to moderate. The area under chilies was 78.5 thousand ha and production thousand tons during the years The share of provinces in chilies production is Sindh 91.5 percent, Punjab 4.7 percent and Baluchistan 3.3 percent. The share of Kharif chilies is two third and Rabi chilies are one third. Chilies generally require well drained fields. The crop is sensitive to continued flooding. The incidence of fusarium spores in water can become lethal and threatening. Sindh: Damage to Autumn Crop of Chilies District Area Yield Factor Production 000 ha kg/ha Damage 000 tons T.M.Khan Badin Thata MirPurKhas T.A.Yar Umer Kot Sanghar Shaheed Benazir Abad Hyderabad Dadu Matiari Khairpur JamShoro N.Feroze Tharparker Jacobabad SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 12 of 45

16 Total Onion Onions are mainly sown in Baluchistan, Sindh, Punjab and KPK. The share of provinces in onion production is Baluchistan 38 percent, Sindh 33% and Punjab 17%. The onion production in Sindh and Baluchistan has picked up greatly because of frost free season at the time of growth and cool temperatures and low relative humidity at the time of harvest and marketing. The onion and tomato availability seasons are alike. The onions from Baluchistan are available during August October; from Sindh during November- April. The crop is available from Punjab during May- July and KPK during June August. The climatic factors are highly hostile for harvesting, storage and marketing on account of scorching heat and a very high relative humidity that is damaging for the commodity. The damages estimated are as follows: Sindh: Damage to Onion Crop Area Yield Factor Production District 000 ha kg/ha Damage 000 tons T.M.Khan Badin Thatta MirPurKhas T.A.Yar Umer Kot Sanghar Shaheed Benazir Abad Hyderabad Dadu Matiari Khairpur JamShoro N.Feroze Tharparker Jacobabad Total SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 13 of 45

17 Tomato Tomatoes are grown all over Pakistan in all growing seasons. The area under tomato was ha and production thousand tons during the years The share of provinces in tomato production is Baluchistan 40%, KPK 29 %, Sindh 18% and Punjab 13%. Tomato availability starts from Baluchistan at nearly the end of monsoon during August-October. The supplies during November March mainly come from Sindh although some crop also from sub mountainous region of Dargai, Malakand in KPK and Katha Saghral in Khushab, Punjab. Given the level of damage, the consumer prices will push very high in coming months. The damage estimate is 70 thousand tons. The concept of a total crop in perishable commodities is pointless as these commodities have to be available afresh on daily basis. The statistics of the damages are as follows: Sindh: Damage to Tomato Crop Area Yield Factor Production kg/h District 000 ha a Damage 000 tons T.M.Khan Badin Thata MirPurKhas T.A.Yar Umer Kot Sanghar Shaheed Benazir Abad Hyderabad Dadu Matiari Khairpur JamShoro N.Feroze Tharparker Jacobabad Total SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 14 of 45

18 Rice Crop Rice is an important component of food basket in the world including Pakistan. The aromatic basmati rice of Pakistan is a ceremonial dish in Pakistan and an important source of foreign exchange earnings. Coarse /IRRI rice is generally grown southern parts of the Indus plain including southern Punjab and right bank of Indus in Sindh. The induction of high hybrid seeds from China is increasing growingly in recent years. Sindh: Rice Damages Damage District 1000 hec Kg/ha factor 000 tons T.M.Khan Badin Thattta Mirpurkhas Tando Allah Yar Umerkot Sanghar Nawabshah Hyderabad Dadu Matiari KhairPur Jamshoro N.Feroz Tharparkar Jacobabad Total Punjab Kasur Bahawalnagar Vehari Total Baluchistan Nasir abad Jaffrabada Jhal Magsi SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 15 of 45

19 The wide spread rains of monsoon have benefitted the crop. Some problem was observed in the coastal district of Badin where overflowing drainage system outburst the brook causing damage to crops, settlements and infrastructure. This led to displacement of a large number of rural populations. Sugarcane Crop Sugarcane is a long gestation, hydrophilic, high input and management demanding, tropical crop. It has two sowing seasons i.e. autumn sowing in Sindh and spring sowing in Punjab and KPK. The crushing of cane usually starts during mid November and continues generally up to end February. There may be some exceptions may be on both extremities. The Sindh Sugar factory Control Ordinance 1950 decree that sugar mills will be operational on Ist of October. Sindh Government should assure its implementation. A long time standing of the water would cause lodging and detrimental to the crop. Maize Crop Maize is an important feed crop of Pakistan. Two crops are grown in the country viz. spring and autumn spring crop is mainly confined to central Punjab. It is sown by hybrid that is demanding in investment, farm management and inputs. This crop is therefore confined to irrigated areas. The autumn crop is mainly grown in barani areas that are devoid of irrigation. This crop is generally sown by synthetic seeds. The productivity of spring crop is more 8 tons per ha on average and autumn crop is about 2 tons per ha. The crop at this is good condition. 4.0 Damages to Infrastructure Beside damages to standing crops, 9824 settlements compounding 0.92 million houses, Km national and provincial roads (Kachha, Pakka Roads), 191 Km of Railways tracks have been damaged in Sindh, Punjab and Baluchistan. Several breaches/overflows in protective bunds of the canals have added to inundation in district Badin, Mirpur khas, UmerKot, Tando Muhammad Khan. Change detection based on multi-temporal and multi- resolution satellite imagery was used to ascertain the location of breaches, their sizes, consequential damage to other infrastructure. Various base layers such as settlements, irrigation network, roads, railway lines and bunds were overlaid on to flood extent map. SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 16 of 45

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21 The summary of damages to infrastructure and agriculture is as tabulated below FLOOD / RAIN 2011 DAMAGES SUMMARY District Inundated Area (Sq km) Damaged Roads (Km) National Provincial Kacha Pakka Railway (Km) Bridge No. of Settlements Agriculture (Sq km) No. of Houses Badin Bahawalnager Benazirabad Dadu Hyderabad Jacobabad Jafarabad Jamshoro Jhal Magsi SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 18 of 50

22 Kasur Khairpur Matiari Mirpurkhas Nasirabad Naushahro Ferzoe Sanghar Tando Allahyar Tharparkar Thatta TM Khan Umerkot Vehari Total SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 19 of 50

23 4.1 Badin SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 20 of 50

24 SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 21 of 50

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29 4.2 Mirpur Khas SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 26 of 50

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31 SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 28 of 50

32 4.3 UmerKot SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 29 of 50

33 SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 30 of 50

34 4.4 Tando Muhammad Khan SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 31 of 50

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37 4.5 Thatta SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 34 of 50

38 4.6 Tando Allah Yar SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 35 of 50

39 4.7 Sanghar SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 36 of 50

40 4.8 Shaheed Benazir Abad SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 37 of 50

41 4.9 Dadu SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 38 of 50

42 4.10 Matiari SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 39 of 50

43 4.11 Hyderabad SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 40 of 50

44 4.12 Tharparker SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 41 of 50

45 4.13 Naushahro Feroze SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 42 of 50

46 4.14 Khairpur SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 43 of 50

47 4.15 Jacobabad SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 44 of 50

48 4.16 Jamshoro SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 45 of 50

49 4.17 Jaffarabad SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 46 of 50

50 4.18 Jal Magsi SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 47 of 50

51 4.19 Nasirabad SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 48 of 50

52 4.20 Vehari SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 49 of 50

53 4.21 Kasur SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 50 of 50

54 4.22 Bawalnagar SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 51 of 50

55 5.0 Inundation Duration Statistics District Inundated Area 20 Sep Sep 11 (Sq km) Badin Bahawalnager 81 NR 81 Benazirabad Dadu 360 NR 360 Hyderabad 151 NR 151 Jacobabad 517 NR 517 Jafarabad 211 NR 211 Jamshoro 154 NR 154 Jhal Magsi 146 NR 146 Kasur 138 NR 138 Khairpur 268 NR 268 Matiari 325 NR 325 Mirpurkhas Nasirabad 79 NR 79 Naushahro Ferzoe 376 NR 376 Sanghar Tando Allahyar Tharparkar 197 NR 197 Thatta TM Khan Umerkot Vehari 56 NR 56 Total SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 52 of 50

56 6.0 Results District Inundated Area (ha) 23-Aug Sep Sep Sep-11 Agri Area (ha) Inundated Area (ha) Agri Area (ha) Badin 235, , , ,000 Mirpur Khas 92,000 56,600 96,000 58,000 T.M. Khan 17,000 11,300 28,000 17,400 Umer Kot 14,700 8,500 26,700 17,200 Thatta *NR *NR 14,000 11,700 Tando Allay Yar NR NR 15,800 10,600 Sanghar NR NR 15,600 8,300 Shaheed Benazir Abad NR NR NR NR Dadu NR NR NR NR Matiari NR NR NR NR Hyderabad NR NR NR NR Jacobabad Jamshoro Inundated Agri Area Inundated Agri Area Area (ha) (ha) Area (ha) (ha) NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 53 of 50

57 Khairpur Jhal Magsi Nasirbad Jaffarabad Naushahro Ferzoe Vehari Bahawalnager Kasur NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR * Not Reported SPRCNT/FAO/ OSRO/PAK/013/CAN Page 54 of 50