ASPECTS OF WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SOURCES Acad. Prof. Dr. Zijo Pašić Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina

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1 ASPECTS OF WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SOURCES Acad. Prof. Dr. Zijo Pašić Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina Abstract Participation of different sources in production of electric energy in the world is given and participation of coal in mentioned production is presented. Effects of introduction of wind and photovoltaic electric power plants are pointed out, especially for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Approach of transition from current state to future state of electric power system is suggested. Introduction Representing basic precondition for development and prosperity of any civilized society, electric energy generation is in the focus of technology activities today. Involved in all production and other processes it is evidentially that price of electric energy has direct impact on prices of goods, prices of work and overall living standard of the population. So cheaper electric energy leads to higher living standard of population. Streaming to produce cheaper electric energy, different countries are using different sources at first place those existing on its own territory. In majority of cases these are: coal and water. Their random distribution on the Earth is defining locations of the electric power stations and their type: hydro or coal based thermoelectric power plants. As a good example could be taken Poland, where 95% of totally produced electric energy is coming from coal based electric power plants and Norway, where over 95% of totally produced electric energy is coming from hydro power plants. 1 Electric energy by sources To get better insight in the participation of different sources in total electric energy production in the world, we can refer to table Norway Ministry of Petroleum and Energy's website: 2 The shift project data portal Data Sources US EIA Historical Statistics The World Bank World Development Indicators 1

2 Total electric energy production in the world: TWh, thereof: TWh % of total electric energy production From coal ,9 From gas ,0 Hydro ,8 Nuclear ,7 Oil ,8 Other ,8 Table 1. Total electric energy production in the world and participation of different sources in it, for year 2014 Although participation of other sources (gas, nuclear, oil) in the total electric energy production in the world is significant, paying our attention to coal and water only, it is evident that the most of electric energy in the world was produced from coal (39%) and coal and water are covering 56% of total electric energy production in the world. As an illustration, production of electric energy based on coal and water according to fully accessible data per country in the year is given in table 2. For the year 2016, total production of electric energy rose to amount of TWh 3, but other data were not accessible, so data for the year 2014, were taken for comparison. Country Total production TWh Total in the world TWh Coal Hydro TWh % of its total TWh % of its total Hydro % Coal Participation in total coal based production in the world (8726 TWh) China ,2% USA ,4% EU ,5 44,6 9% India ,1% Russia ,5 1,6% Japan ,4% Canada , ,9 Australia ,8% BiH , ,1% Table 2. Electric energy production based on coal and water per country in 2014 year 4 3 Wikipedia List of countries by electricity production 4 Wikipedia List of countries by electricity production 2

3 For the sake of simplicity, not all countries were cited in the table 2, but nine countries (including Bosnia and Herzegovina) only, participating in the total in the world produced electric energy with 73,39%. It follows from table 2 that in the year 2014, the greatest producer of electric energy in the world was China with 72% of its energy production based on coal and participating in the total coal based produced electric energy in the world, with 42,2%. Follows USA with 18,4%, the India and EU with 9% each, and so on. Bosnia and Herzegovina was positioned in the table 2. just to show its negligible participation in totally produced coal based electric energy in the world (0,1%). Totally produced electric energy in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the year 2014, amounted 18 TWh and total consumption in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the same period was 12,2 TWh. Great participation of coal based electric energy in totally produced electric energy in the world is determined by the fact that water resources are not so disposable as coal one s, but also because of their weather dependence. So the only reliable and continuously available fuel for electric energy production in most cases, becomes coal. 5 Although predominantly used as a fuel for electric energy production, it is becoming increasingly unpopular because of creation of high amount of CO2 during burning, causing rise of pollution and contributing to the global warming of the planet Earth. So the coal seems to be the most responsible for pollution and CO2 emittion (although and some other fuels participates in the same process) and its participation in electric energy production should be diminished. In addition, rise of conscience about negative ecological aspects of fossil fuels as well as about possibly danger of fission based nuclear power plants, electric power sources based on wind energy and direct conversion of energy of the of the Sun in the electric energy, are becoming more and more attractive. Unfortunately, besides of their volatility, prices of these types of electric energy are still higher than of the energy got from sources based on water and coal, according to tables 3 and 4. 5 Same holds for gas, oil and nuclear, where they exist, but they are not subject of this analisis. 3

4 Table 3. Levelized Cost of Electricity 6 (Germany 2013) (Levelized cost of electricity LCOE, here means ratio of all expenses of building and exploitation of the appropriate electric power station and total quantity of the electric energy produced during lifetime of the power station). Coal-fired power plants Wind Power German LCOE in /MWh ISE (2013) ISE (2018) Technology Low cost High cost Low cost High cost brown coal hard coal CCGT power plants Onshore wind farms Offshore wind farms Solar PV systems Biogas power plant Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2013) Levelized cost of electricity renewable energy technologies [38] Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2018) Stromgestehungskosten erneuerbare Energien [39] Table 4. German LCOE in /MWh 7 6 Wikipedia: Cost of Electricity by Source 4

5 Implementation of these unconventional sources of electric energy impose additional adaptations of electric power system. Structure of electric power system should be changed as well as electric power system protection, voltage regulation and control. New converter stations, systems for storage of electric energy, transformer substations and electric power system lines from new installed sources to the points of connection to existing electric power system (often over hardly accessible terrain) should be built. Nevertheless, EU decided to lower participation of fossil fuel in production of electric energy and to rise participation of energy produced from renewable sources to 20% of total energy production in EU till the year , regardless of the existing participation of the renewable sources in total electric energy production in a country. Besides, transition to any new technology needs to define how to solve problem of the waist. It holds also for wind and especially photovoltaic power stations. According to table 2. the most favorable ratio of energy produced from renewable sources (hydroenergy) to energy produced from coal (thermoenergy) besides of Canada and Norway, has Russia (121,5%) then Bosnia and Herzegovina (70%), followed by EU 27 (44,6%). Other values are visible in the table 2. From the other side, Paris Agreement 9, signed by 195 countries, asks for significant reduction of greenhouse gases and as consequence limiting of global warming to less than 2 C in comparison to preindustrial level. As the obligatory documents, mentioned requests are putting different countries in unequal position. Aspects of Bosnia and Herzegovina For small countries already having favorable hydroenergy to thermoenergy production ratio, the request is inconvenient: it means raise of electric energy prices and consequently rise of goods prices and lowering of living standard of the population. As an illustration, ratio of prices for 4,5 MWh of electric energy 10 to net average monthly salary for several characteristic countries is given in table 5. 7 Wikipedia: German LCOE in /MWh 8 Renewable energy European Commission 9 Wikipedia: 10 Consumption of electric energy per household in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Survey on household energy consumption in BiH, 2015, Thematic Bulletin, ISSN X, Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo,

6 Country Average salary 11 Price of electric energy 12 /kwh Price of electric energy for 4,5 MWh Price of 4,5 MWh el. en. Salary Germany , ,5 52,9% France , ,7% England , ,8% Italy , ,0% BiH 445 0, ,1% Table 5. Salaries and prices of electric energy for households per country (in the year 2017) With the highest participation of the price of electric energy for household, in income of its population Bosnia and Herzegovina is very sensitive to any changes of the price of electric energy. In the example of the table 5, increase of the price of electric energy for one cent only, means increase of participation of the price for 4,5 MWh of electric energy in the average salary for: - 2% in Germany - 2,90% in France - 2,33% in England - 2,68% in Italy - 10,13% in BiH. Bosnia and Herzegovina can t avoid to obey to politics of EU in the field of electric energy production, but it can undertake steps and measures to diminish (if not eliminate) negative effects of rise of prices of electric energy to living standard of its population. Besides, it is high time to begin to talk about ecological aspects of building of both types of electrical sources: wind and photovoltaic ones. Therefore, strategy of transition from current state to projected state of participation of different sources in electric energy production in Bosnia and Herzegovina should be defined. Strategy of industrial development of Bosnia and Herzegovina in next ten to fifteen years, should make planning of electricity sector development in Bosnia and Herzegovina much more easier and closer to real future needs for electrical energy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 11 List of European countries by average wage 12 Global electricity prices by select countries in 2017 (in U.S. dollars per kilowatt hour) 6

7 It must take into account fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina has no deserts, no empty surfaces which couldn t be used for agriculture, forestry or tourist destination, that Bosnia and Herzegovina is practically only country in central and Eastern Europe having untouched forests and recognized areas of bird migration paths or their living places, as well as hunting areas. Existing areas with high degree of pollution caused by industry or inadequate urbanistic planning must not be additionally endangered by erection of plants preventing or significantly lowering air circulation. Now the only possibility of engagement of BiH specialists in building of wind and photovoltaic electric power stations is in the field of engineering. Therefore, the push to industrial development of Bosnia and Herzegovina through manufacturing and/or development of the necessary electric power system equipment, seems hardly to be expected. Appropriate valorization of future value of clean water resources and intact nature surroundings must be taken into account when deciding to build new electric power stations, including renewable ones. Building of new coal based electric power station intended for electric energy export only, should not be allowed (at least until reaching predefined preconditions). Based on negligible participation of coal based electric energy production of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the total world s coal based production of electric energy, some benefits for Bosnia and Herzegovina (some softening of the conditions) for transition from current to future state, should be negotiated with appropriate authorities. New renewable sources of electric energy should be built strongly in accordance with principles of ecology; preserving surroundings and living beings as a basis for future development of the Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the near future Bosnia and Herzegovina should be recognized as an area of preserved surroundings, clean water and human friendly life conditions. 7

8 Conclusions In conclusions, to reach goals of reduction of CO2 emission from coal based electric power plants and limiting of global warming, Bosnia and Herzegovina should: - To define strategy of transition from current state to projected state of participation of different sources in electric energy production in Bosnia and Herzegovina; - To avoid building of new coal based electric power station intended for electric energy export only (at least until reaching predefined preconditions); - To build new renewable sources of electric energy strongly in accordance with principles of ecology; preserving surroundings and living beings as a basis for future development of the Bosnia and Herzegovina; - Based on negligible participation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in total coal based production of electric energy in the world (0,1%), existing very good ratio of hydro to coal based production of electric energy (70%) and present efforts to rise living standard of the population in Bosnia and Herzegovina after war deteriorations, to negotiate with appropriate authorities some benefits for Bosnia and Herzegovina (some softening of the conditions) for transition from current to future state of the electric power system in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 8