INTERNATIONALSPECIALITY CONFERENCE: LEAPFROGGING OPPORTUNITIES FOR AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENT Xi an, Shaanxi Province, China May 2010

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1 INTERNATIONALSPECIALITY CONFERENCE: LEAPFROGGING OPPORTUNITIES FOR AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENT Xi an, Shaanxi Province, China May 2010 Science-based, Multilateral Regional Cooperation for the Control of Air Pollution: A Handbook for Policy-makers Lars Nordberg, ScandEnvironment la.nordberg@tele2.se

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3 RATIONALE Principle 21 of United Nations 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment transboundary pollution national sovereignty shared responsibilities

4 DRIVING FORCES Effects of air pollution. dose-response functions. critical loads and levels. exceedances

5 POLITICAL RESPONSE reduction and elimination of exceedances in the entire region fairness among countries

6 EMISSION REDUCTIONS abatement options cost-effective measures recovery of geochemical and ecological systems

7 CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION Observation and prediction of recovery shows the Convention is moving towards preventing air pollution effects

8 Negotiating effects-based emission ceilings Critical load maps, critical levels, environmental data Emissions projections Abatement options and their costs Source - receptor relationship (atmospheric transport) Integrated assessment model Scenario analysis Cost minimization Environmental targets Benefit assessment Negotiations Protocol emission ceilings

9 REGIONAL COOPERATION CLRTAP EANET APINA Central Asia MaléDeclaration IANABIS ASEAN Haze UNEP Joint Forum

10 GLOBAL CONCERNS Global Atmospheric Pollution Forum. integration. co-benefits

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12 Multi-pollutant / multi-effects approach: extended version for a future protocol? Acidification Eutrophication Tropospheric ozone CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O CO SO 2 NH 3 NO x NMVOC primary PM Climate change PM10 / PM2.5 Urban air quality

13 Co-benefits of GHG mitigation on human health in India Source: GAINS-Asia Loss in statistical life expectancy due to PM National energy projection +220% CO 2 in Months National projections 2030 Climate scenario 2030 Climate scenario +150% CO 2 in

14 in China Co-benefits of GHG mitigation on crop losses Source: GAINS-Asia Change in crop loss compared to % 20% 15% 10% Change in crop loss due to ground-level ozone compared to % 0% Maize Rice Soybean Wheat Business-as-usual 2030 Climate scenario 2030 Rice: crop loss calculated for 2030 baseline Wheat: crop loss calculated for 2030 baseline

15 From RAINS to GAINS: multi-pollutant measures Structural measures (which affect activity levels): Energy savings, efficiency improvements, bans: all pollutants Increased use of natural gas: CO 2, SO 2, VOC, NO x, PM CH 4 Biomass: CO 2 VOC, PM, CH 4 Technical measures for stationary sources: SCR, SNCR: NO x, CO, NH 3, N 2 O Fluidized bed combustion: SO 2, NO x, N 2 O Advanced residential combustion: VOC, PM, CO, CH 4 FGD: SO 2, PM CO 2 IGCC: CO 2, SO 2, NO x, PM CHP: all pollutants Technical measures for mobile sources: Euro-standards: NO x, VOC, PM, CO NH 3, N 2 O Low sulfur fuels: SO 2, PM Diesel: CO 2, VOC, PM, NO x, SO 2

16 Multi-pollutant measures (Cont d) Agricultural sources: Low emission pig housing: NH 3, CH 4 N 2 O Covered storage of slurry: NH 3 CH 4 Injection of manure: NH 3 N 2 O Anaerobic digestion (biogas): CH 4, N 2 O CO 2 NH 3 Other sources Improving flaring efficiency: PM, VOC, NO x, SO 2, CO Gas recovery and flaring: CH 4 CO 2, PM, VOC, SO 2, NO x, CO Gas recovery and re-use: CH 4 CO 2 Waste incineration: CH 4 CO 2 Gas recovery from wastewater treatment: CH 4 CO 2 In total we have identified approx. 500 measures with multi-pollutant impacts

17 SHORT-CUTS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY legally binding agreements (lengthy process) political declarations and resolutions (quick process) bi-, tri-, etc. -lateral arrangements (quick?) voluntary ad hoc measures (limited targets) non-governmental policy cooperation - big city administrations - activity sectors (industry) - public interest groups, youth groups, religious communities

18 SCIENTISTS AND POLICY-MAKERS: PROMOTE STRONG TWO-WAY COMMUNICATION scientific journalists for public awareness-raising non-governmental organizations (public interest groups, science, industry) common information strategies common hearings and knowledge-sharing common responsibilities: cost and benefit long-term consequences, options issue integration precautionary step-by-step approach, intermediate targets flexible responses

19 GUIDANCE FOR POLICY-MAKERS Base action on sound science Consult the Handbook and other sources Recognize good examples Be impatiently patient

20 THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE