SRES: How FAR beyond the TAR?

Transcription

1 SRES: How FAR beyond the TAR? US Climate Scenarios Workshop July 19, 2002 Hugh Pitcher Joint Global Change Research Institute The University Of Maryland Pacific Norwest National Laboratory

2 Outline Review of SRES Structure SRES additional work suggestions TGCIA approaches Scenario Structure Implications for Uncertainty Scenarios for the FAR

3 SRES Structure Four Socio-Economic Futures Three Energy Supply Futures Three Energy Demand Futures

4 Socio-Economic Futures A1 High growth, private sector focus, effective institutions B1 High growth, public aspects focus, effective institutions A2 Low growth, high population, institutional weakness B2 Moderate growth, mid population, moderate institutions

5 Energy System Carbon Emissions Gt C A1 Aim A1FI MiniCAM A1T Message A2ASF B1 Image B2 Message

6 Cumulative Carbon Emissions from all sources Gt C A1 Aim A1FI MiniCAM A1T Message A2ASF B1 Image B2 Message

7 Useful additional work from the SRES SPM Continued Scenario development Capacity building Multiple storyline, model approaches Key GHG drivers Non-CO2 gases Land use Particulate emissions Emissions feedbacks from climate change Gridded emissions, population, GDP Multiple priorities Aggregation (GWP s) Information dissemination

8 Typology for additional work Scenario extensions Gridded emissions, population, economic activity Minor Scenario modifications(<.25 to.5wms) Local air pollutants and likely control levels Land use change Additional relevant emissions Move base year to 2000 Refined non-co2 gas emissions

9 Typology II Major scenario modifications (>.5 wms) Population GDP Energy consumption Story line structure At what point does a change in the emissions scenario break the link to climate model runs?

10 Total Completed Fertility History Low Case Med Case High Case Children Per Woman =

11 LE and PCI for All Countries LE PCI

12 Designing a Set of Scenarios Many disciplines, each with questions that require a range of futures to illuminate the behaviors of particular concern. Analogy to an industrial process experimental design. Scenarios are specific to the question at hand.

13 Essential to be clear about the purpose of the scenario!! A1 explores a very rich world Important for understanding the model and the importance of development in managing climate issues Probably not plausible in a real world context B1 explores a very high energy efficiency world Plausible?

14 A Prototypical Scenario Scheme Integrating Scenarios Carbon Cycle Climate Socio-Econ Impacts/Adapt Scenarios Scenarios Scenearios Scenarios

15 Role of integrating scenarios Integrate disciplinary results Reinforce cross disciplinary links Understand Impacts/Vulnerability in context Support policy decisions

16 How do we select integrating scenarios? Need to have clearly plausible story and empirical implementation Explore plausible range of outcomes and cover this.

17 What questions will we answer with the integrating scenarios Will they meet the criteria for the Parson zero order decision making hurdle? {do they need to meet this criteria?} How will the policy makers use this information in constructing policies

18 Where we might use an uncertainty framework Suppose we knew how much climate change we could afford (from the extended SRES analysis). What is the range of emissions consistent with a given climate outcome?

19 Comparison of Emissions Range and Target Carbon Budget Ranges 3000 SRES Maximum SRES Marker Range of Cumulative Emissions Gt C 1500 Likely Range for Emissions RES Minimum Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty.9 C 1.5 C 2 C 2.4 C 2.8 C Allowable Cumulative Carbon Budgets

20 Conclusions We have a tension between finishing the impacts/adaptation analysis of the SRES cases and modifying the scenarios to reflect current learning. Managing the tension will require a considered program of analysis. The core SRES scenarios can be modified to support the FAR without breaking the link to existing climate model runs but the scenario process needs to move beyond this set of changes