Impact of precipitation and temperature on hydrological responses in the Ethiopian Highlands
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1 Impact of precipitation and temperature on hydrological responses in the Ethiopian Highlands Tatenda Lemann, 1,2,3 Vincent Roth, 1,2,3 Gete Zeleke, 1,3 1 Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland 2 Integrative Geography Sustainable Land Management Unit, University of Bern, Switzerland 3 Water and Land Resource Centre, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 24. June 2015
2 Cairo 2
3 3
4 4
5 Integrative Anjeni Maybar Andit Tid 5
6 Integrative Anjeni Maybar 6
7 Anjeni 7
8 8
9 1. Step: Data preparation Manual 2. Step: Modelling process ArcSWAT 3. Step: Calibration/Validation and Scenario Modelling SUFI-2 9
10 1. Step: Data preparation Manual 2. Step: Modelling process ArcSWAT 3. Step: Calibration/Validation and Scenario Modelling SUFI-2 10
11 Calibration / Validation with SUFI-2 Name a Definition Andit Tid b Maybar Anjeni min max min max min max a CN2.mgt SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition v GW_DELAY.gw Groundwater delay (days) v GWQMN.gw Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur (mm) v ESCO.hru Soil evaporation compensation factor v GW_REVAP.gw Groundwater "revap" coefficient v REVAPMN.gw Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for "revap" to occur (mm) v CH_K2.rte Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium v CH_N2.rt Manning's "n" value for the main channel V SURLAG.bsn Surface runoff lag time (days) V RCHRG_DP.gw Deep aquifer percolation fraction V EPCO.hru Plant uptake compensation factor R OV_N.hru Manning s n value for overland flow
12 a =SCRP (Bosshart, 1997, 1999; Hurni, 1998) b =WLRC ( 12
13 13
14 Scenario Modelling with SUFI-2 Name a Definition Maybar Andit Tid TId Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 r Precipitation.pcp Amount of precipitation falling during the day (mm) r PCPMM.wgn Average or mean total monthly precipitation (mm) r RAINHHMX.wgn Maximum 0.5 hour rainfall in entire period of record for month (mm) r PCPSTD.wgn Standard deviation for daily precipitation in month (mm/day) r TMPMX.wgn r TMPMX.wgn Average daily max. air temperature for month (ºC). Average daily max. air temperature for month (ºC) r TMPMN.wgn r TMPMN.wgn Average daily min. air temperature for month (ºC). Average daily min. air temperature for month (ºC) r MAXTEMP.tmp r MAXTEMP.tmp Daily maximum temperature (ºC) Daily maximum temperature (ºC) r MINTEMP.tmp Daily minimum temperature (ºC) r MINTEMP.tmp Daily minimum temperature (ºC) r_tmpstdmx.wgn Standard deviation for daily max. air temperature in r_tmpstdmx.wgn Standard deviation for daily max. air temperature in month (ºC) month (ºC) 14
15 Scenario 1 for Maybar + 24% precipitation Same av. annual precipitation as Anjeni + ~50% more discharge + ~20% higher drainage ratio infiltration-excess processes 15
16 Scenario 2 for Andit Tid + 42% (6.8 C) Min Temperature Same av. annual temperature as Anjeni + ~ 60% potential Evapotranspiration from 1,099 to 1,608 mm - ~10% discharge - ~ 10% drainage ratio 16
17 17
18 Increasing temperature Decreasing rainfall-runoff ratio Increasing precipitation Increasing rainfall-runoff ratio Differences of rainfall-runoff ratio in small scale catchments are largely caused by temperature and precipitation Changes in temperature or precipitation (e.g. climate change) have far-reaching consequences for blue and green water distribution 18
19 Thank you! Questions? 19
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