Impact of Climate Change on River Discharge in Namsane River Basin Lao PDR. Ketsana XAIYASARN (Mr) Lao NaBonal Mekong CommiDee Secretariat, Lao PDR
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1 Impact of Climate Change on River Discharge in Namsane River Basin Lao PDR Ketsana XAIYASARN (Mr) Lao NaBonal Mekong CommiDee Secretariat, Lao PDR
2 IntroducBon o o o o o Lao PDR situate in hearth of Indochina Peninsular Bordered by China to the North, Viet Nam to the East, Cambodia to the South, and Thailand andmyanmar (Burma) to the West and Northwest respecbvely Lay in Mekong River Basin with annual average 35% of the annual flow of the whole Mekong river The Lao PDR has a tropical climate, which is influenced by the southeast monsoon which causes significant rainfall and high humidity The average annual rainfall is about mm with average temp C
3 Study Area o Nam Sane river is one the tributaries of the Mekong River o Located in middle part of of LAO PDR o Catchment area of 2,100 km 2, 157 km length o Annual mean temperature ranges from 8 C to 34 C o Annual rainfall range 1,500 3,100 mm and annual average of discharge in Meungkao StaBon is 130 m 3 /s
4 Some Experience from CC in Laos 1) Water shortage in dry season but too much water in rainy season 2) Many development projected planned in Namsane (3 Hydropower Projects and 50,000 Ha of irrigation planned in Namsane river basin) Flood in Namsane River Basin 05 Aug2015 Water Shortage in Namsane River Basin Feb 2015
5 Current SituaBon of Namsane River Basin Discharge (m 3 /s) Namsane Hydrograph
6 ObjecBve 1. To analyze climate change condibon in Namsane river basin from 2020 to To assess the impact of climate change on discharge in Namsane river basin towards 2040.
7 Climate Change Data PreparaBon Climate Data Distribution Systtem GCM: ECHAM 4 Extract Data (Achieve File; txt file) SEA START Analysis Tools Using MS. Excel to Analyse Data ReArrange Data for MS. Excel Down Scale Data Choosing Position Analys Data Rename the FIle Bias Correction (delta change) Data PreparaBon (*.dbf) Input to SWAT Model
8 Data Input
9 Methodology Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied to assess the discharge in the study area South East Asia SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (SEA START) analysis tool has been applied to interpret climate data from ECHAM4 MS. Excel applied for data analysis and chart production
10 Result on Temperature ProjecBon The future temperature in Namsane River basin will increase slightly towards Temp ( c) Temp in upper basin Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean(BL) Mean (A2) Mean(B2) The lower basin of basin will hoder around 1.81 C and the upper basin of the basin will increase around 2.51 C. Temp ( c) Temp in lower basin Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean(BL) Mean(A2) Mean(B2)
11 Future Trend of Rainfall Result on Rainfall ProjecBon Rainfall will increase around 1.5-5% or around mm. Future rainfall will decrease in July (rainy season) but will increase in August and September and October Wet season rainfall will increase around 66 Dry season the rain will less than the baseline condibon but no later than 10 mm Rainfall (mm) Rain (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec BL A B Changing Rain in Wet Season BL A2 B2 Rain Rain (mm) Changing Rain in Dry Season BL A2 B2 Rain
12 Projected Change on Mean Monthly Discharge Discharge will decrease in January and February but increased from March to December. The peak of the discharge will shij from July to August and slightly decrease in September to December Discharge (m 3 /s) Mean Monthly discharge at Meung Kao StaDon 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec BL A B
13 CC Impact on Wet Season A2 Scenario, Discharge will increase at all basin of the basin but decrease in 2030 in upper basin B2 Scenario discharge will increase in 2020 and 2040, but will decrease in middle basin, lower and mouth of the basin in 2025 and % change % change Upper basin (wet season) A2 B Lower basin (wet season) A2 B % change Middle basin (wet season) 6 5 A2 B Outlet (wet season) 6 5 A2 B2 % change
14 CC Impact on Dry Season A2 scenario the discharge will increase >100% in 2030 and 2040 (Upper basin), and 2040 (upper, middle and lower part) and decrease in 2020 and 2030 at mouth of the basin. B2 Scenario the discharge will decrease in 2025 and 2030 (outlet). % change % change Upper basin (dry season) A2 B Lower basin (dry season) A2 B % change % change Middle basin (dry season) A2 B Outlet (dry season) A2 B
15 Conclusion The upper part of the basin will be increased up to 2.51 C and 1.81 C in lower part of the basin respecbvely. Rainfall will change lidle around 1.5% - 5% of the total rainfall and July (rainy season) will decrease and will increase in August and September Discharge will also increase in wet and dry season (weder in wet and weder in dry season) Discharge in July will decrease but discharge will increase in August and September (rainy season) Delay in flood season shij from July to August or September
16 Reference Arnold, J.G., J.R.Kiniry, R. Srinivasan, J.R. William, E.B. Haney and S.L. Neitsch: Soil and Water Assessment Tools- Input/Output Document, Texas Water Resources InsBtute, 2002 IPCC. (InternaBonal Panel on Climate Change) ContribuBon of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, et al. (Eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Mekong River Commission: Strategic Plan : Office of the Secretariat in VienBane and Office of the Secretariat in Phnom Penh, 2011 Marko Keskinen, Suppakorn Chinvanno, Mar Kummu, Paula Nuorteva, Anond Snidvongs, Olli Varis & Kaisa VäsBlä: Water and Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin: Diagnosis & recommendabons for adaptabon Water and Development Research Group, TKK & Southeast Asia START Regional Center, 2009 Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., and Williams, J. R.: Soil and Water Assessment Tool theorebcal documentabon, version 2005, Texas Water Resources InsBtute, College StaBon, Texas, USA, Thanapon Piman, Vanna Nuon, Sasikan Charoensatsiri, Aekkapol Aekakkararungroj and Nguyen Huong Thuy Phan. Climate Change Analysis in the Lower Mekong Basin: Review of Availability of Observed Meteorological Data: he Mekong River Commission, VienBane, Lao PDR, October 2014 Tachikawa et al: Catalogue of River for Southeast Asia and the Pacific/Volume 5, The UNESCO- IHP Regional Steering CommiDee for Southeast Asia and The Pacific/ Unesco IHP PublicaBon, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 2004 United NaBons Department of Economic and Social Affairs/PopulaBon Division: World PopulaBon Prospects: The 2010, Volume II: Demographic Profiles.Available to download at esa.un.org/wpp/mulbple- Figures/pdf/418.pdf, 2010 Water Resources Engineering Program: Study of potenbal development of water resources in the Mae Khong River Basin: Final Report. Bangkok: Asian InsBtute of Technology, 1994 Water resources in changing climate, Unpublished M.Tech. thesis, Department of Water Resources Development and Management IIT Roorkee, Chapter 25, 1995
17 Thanks you for your adenbon
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