Oil prices and the gas market
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1 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas Oil prices and the gas market Geoffroy Hureau - Secretary General - CEDIGAZ Gastech -Singapore Oct
2 Outline Gas pricing overview Global market dynamics Recent developments and medium term outlook Conclusion Gastech -Singapore Oct
3 CEDIGAZ - More than 50 years of gas market intelligence Founded in 1961, 90 members in 40 countries Databases (gas statistics, supply contracts, UGS, LNG) Annual surveys and thematic studies News reports WORLD UGS STUDY (June 2013) Published since 1990 RECENT STUDIES Gastech -Singapore Oct
4 GAS PRICING OVERVIEW Gastech -Singapore Oct
5 51% of gas imports are still linked to oil prices Overall, oil directly impacts less than 1/5 of marketed gas, but 51% of imported gas Gastech -Singapore Oct
6 But this share has been going down since 2009 Growing influence of hub indexation in Europe Growing share of spot/short-term LNG Gastech -Singapore Oct
7 Regional price differentials Gastech -Singapore Oct
8 US LNG, a new business model, hub indexed and flexible US projects: 36% (volumes) of LT LNG contracts signed since 2011 Gastech -Singapore Oct
9 GLOBAL MARKET DYNAMICS Gastech -Singapore Oct
10 Spot/LT price dynamics In Europe oil-indexed prices act as a cap (volume flexibility in LT contracts) In Asia, spot prices fluctuate around oil-indexed prices, capped by the oil parity Gastech -Singapore Oct
11 Flexible LNG: linking markets Qatari LNG flows European Reexports Gastech -Singapore Oct
12 Double price convergence Asia/Europe, LT/spot US prices remain significantly lower Gastech -Singapore Oct
13 MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK Gastech -Singapore Oct
14 New oil market dynamics Before Nov Post Nov /- +/- +/- +/- +/- + + Key elements for MT evolution: Supply US production OPEC production (Iran, Irak ) MENA geopolitics Demand Price effect Global growth (China ) Gastech -Singapore Oct
15 Oil market to remain oversupplied in 2016 Gastech -Singapore Oct
16 Oil Prices Bearish factors Huge growth in E&P investments in recent years to develop LT assets Producing countries incentivised to produce to the maximum to balance their budgets «Shale technology» also helps increase recovery in conventional fields Costs reductions will lower break-evens >> Price could remain significantly below $100 bl ($60-70) for many years Gastech -Singapore Oct
17 LNG capacity to grow 50% to 2020 New LNG volume ( , cumulative) Short-term LNG Source: GIIGNL,Gas Strategies The gas market is likely to be oversupplied until the early 2020 at least: 140 mmtpa New LNG coming online Russia has at least 100 bcm spare production capacity Short-term trading should continue to grow In the first half of the market could tighten as current and MT price perspectives do not favour new projects Uncertainty on demand: Europe, Asia (China, Japan ), new markets Gastech -Singapore Oct
18 Could the US become short on gas? In the US gas production is correlated to oil prices (CC 70% vs 8% between gas prod. & gas prices) Most of the shale gas produced in the US comes from tight oil / liquids or wet gas plays Low oil price lower oil production lower gas production Lower production + growing demand high gas prices in a low oil price context is possible Impact on LNG exports competitiveness (already challenged at today s prices) Gastech -Singapore Oct
19 US shale firms as indebted as Greece if you include privately held companies, shale firms owe almost as much debt as Greece. The Economist July 4 th 2015 Many companies had negative cash flows even before the oil price drop Gastech -Singapore Oct
20 Conclusions Oil prices: expected to remain depressed in 2016 LTO, Iran and geopolitics will be key Post 2017: will depend on the above + global economy (demand growth) New equilibrium could be found at lower prices ($60-70?) Gas market: Expected to remain well supplied until 2020 at least Gas price: LT oil-indexed price (see oil prices above) Spot price should remain under pressure HH indexed LT not competitive LNG Projects: In a low oil, low gas (spot), higher HH environment project development will be challenging Gastech -Singapore Oct
21 Thank you for your attention Gastech -Singapore Oct
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