Energy Technology Roadmaps: Data Analysis and Modelling. Energy technology roadmaps

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1 Energy Technology Roadmaps: Data Analysis and Modelling

2 Overview Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 and Roadmap goals Data and analysis activities Baseline data Analysis of future scenarios for energy and environment

3 Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions 6 C Scenario emissions 58 Gt > 2 C Scenario emissions 16 Gt > Source: Energy Technology Perspectives C Scenario business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies 2 C Scenario - energy-related CO 2 -emissions halved by 2050 through CO 2 -price and strong policies 10-Apr-14

4 Roadmap logic Clear, concise set of targets that, if achieved, will result in desired outcomes Numerical goals are best Example: Improve energy efficiency in commercial buildings by 25% in 10 years Goals Milestones Gaps and barriers Action items Priorities and timelines

5 Roadmap process outline

6 Roadmap process outline

7 Data and analysis activities Analysis to identify national baseline (energy, environment, economic) is essential Difficult to assess progress without accurate baseline Rigorous scenario analysis or modeling is not essential Extent of analysis varies depending on availability of data, analytical capabilities, time, and resources

8 Baseline data Situation analysis of key factors: Technologies: Current status of costs and performance Technology readiness Market penetration and limitations Markets: Suppliers, distributors and customers Energy characteristics (production, delivery, storage and consumption) Environmental impacts (air, water and land impacts) Public policies: Current status and requirements of relevant, existing laws and regulations

9 PJ 4a Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis Energieträger Einheit e 2020e 2025e 2030e 4a.1 Kernenergie MW b Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis Energieträger Einheit e 2020e 2025e 2030e 4b.1 Kernenergie MW Entwicklung der Kapazitäten und der Erzeugung aus regenerativen Energiequellen (Mindestmengen) in Deutsch Energieträger Einheit e 2020e 2025e 2030e 5.1a Sonne GW 0,11 0,71 1,31 1,61 1,91 5.1b Sonne TWh p.a. 0,07 0,60 1,00 1,28 1,52 5.2a Wind GW 6,11 23,10 25,60 26,90 28,10 5.2b Wind TWh p.a. 9,50 43,54 57,96 64,02 70,08 5.3a Biomasse GW 0,59 0,80 1,00 1,10 1,20 5.3b Biomasse TWh p.a. 1,63 2,55 3,60 4,20 4,80 6 Energie- und Umweltpolitik in Deutschland bis ,1 Größe Einheit e 2020e 2025e 2030e CO2-Zertifikatehandel nein ja ja ja ja (Strom u. Industrie) 6,2 CO2-Zertifikatepreis 2000/tCO 2-3,00 9,00 12,00 14,00 Model-based scenario analysis Representation of relevant aspects in real-world system: Model scope depending on technology area Several models may be required Reality Model Model structure Scope Typically quantitative formulation with balance between accuracy and manageability: Complexity may vary: from simulationbased spreadsheet models to more elaborate cost optimization models Exploring possible future technology deployment pathways through scenarios P O Q P P BHKW _ S BHKW Coal _ BHKW BHKW _ CO2 Coal _ BHKW P + 2 _ BHKW H BHKW Coal BHKW Mathematical description Household Transport Industry Model results Data

10 Data requirements for an energy model Energy security Statistics Behaviour Existing policy Reports Assumptions Outputs from macro and demand models Demand projections Constraints Resources Expert knowledge Other energy system models Experts Technology database Energy system model Scenarios Calibration of energy & emissions Government Statistics Stakeholder workshop Literature review Policy Reference International statistics Source: William Usher, 2010

11 Example: Electricity sector model Technical and economic characteristics Generation mix New capacities Emissions Electricity prices Average generation costs Fuel supply Generation T&D Demand Fuel costs Coal supply Coal plant, subcritical Coal plant, supercritical Electricity demands Gas supply NGCC Industry demand Potentials Wind potential, onshore Gas turbine Wind turbine, onshore Transmission and distribution Transport demand Residential demand Load curves Wind potential, offshore Wind turbine, offshore Commercial demand Fuel demand Hydro potential, run-of-river Hydro, run-of-river Least-cost optimisation: Minimising total costs of power system over analysis horizon

12 Example: Power choices Source: GianCarlo Tosata

13 PWh Example: Results of power sector model analysis 50 Future power generation mix and capacities Fuel demand Environmental impacts Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 BLUE High BLUE High Ren Nuclear Other Solar Wind Biomass+CCS Biomass and waste Hydro Nuclear Natural gas+ccs Natural gas Oil Coal+CCS Coal Long-term electricity prices Investment needs Effect of policy instruments Uncertainty analysis

14 Key points Roadmaps based on strong analysis will obtain consensus more easily Centralized analysis by government is efficient but may be questioned by industry Analysis that engages stakeholder input takes longer, costs more, but is often more accepted Amount of analysis should match data, modeling, and analytical skills available Baseline analysis is required; scenario analysis is useful but not required