GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION: Role of BECCS

Transcription

1 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION: Role of BECCS Dr Gabrial Anandarajah UCL Energy Institute, University College London United Kingdom

2 Content Introduction TIAM-UCL Global Energy System Model Scenarios Results Conclusions

3 Introduction Paris Agreement Ambitious targets, and while many low carbon resources and technologies are available, there are major limitations in the plausible rate at which human societies can deploy them, due to a range of technical, financial, and social constraints. The targets are sufficiently great that many believe that low or zero carbon technologies are not enough: negative emission technologies (NETs) are required. Among the NETs, BECCS (Biomass Energy and Carbon Capture and Storage) has achieved most attention. This paper develops scenarios with and without BECCS to understand the its role to meet the global climate policies.

4 16 Region TIAM-UCL Global Model: Overview TMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) Based on TIMES model generator Dynamic partial equilibrium model approach with objective function maximising Societal welfare costs (consumer surplus + producer surplus) Annualised capital costs, O&M costs, fuel costs, taxes/subsidies, salvage values, demand changes Technologically detailed bottom-up whole energy system model: Covers from resources to conversion to end-use devices to energy service demand 16 regions Flexible time horizon through to 21 Multi-emissions, plus reduced-form climate module

5 Scenarios 1. The first set of scenarios explores optimal pathways to a 2 C target (2D scenarios), both with and without BECCS. 2. The second set of scenarios explores the importance of BECCS in achieving a global 1.5 C target (1.5D scenarios), both with and without BECCS. 3. Several sensitivity scenarios were developed by varying the availability of biomass and emissions peaking year under both sets of scenarios. 4. RQ: What are the implications of BECCS for optimal global decarbonisation pathways?

6 CO 2 emissions and prices with and without BECCS 2D scenarios 4 4 CO2 EMISSION (GTCO2) No-BECCS 35 No-BECCS CARBON PRICE ($/TCO2) The 2D-NoBECCS scenario requires an annual average CO 2 reduction rate of 2% between 215 and 235, whereas the 2D scenario sees emissions remaining at 215 levels until 23. Unavailability of BECCS double marginal CO 2 abatement costs. BECCS alone captures and stores 5.1 GtCO 2 in 25

7 Electricity generation 2D Scenarios Electricity Generation (EJ) BECCS Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Tidal Solar thermal Solar PV Oil Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Natural Gas CCS Natural Gas Coal CCS Coal Biomass CCS Biomass Electricity Generation (EJ) No-BECCS Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Tidal Solar thermal Solar PV Oil Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Natural Gas CCS Natural Gas Coal CCS Coal Biomass CCS Biomass The CO 2 intensity of electricity halves from 52 g/kwh in 215 to 25 g/kwh in 235 under the 2D_BECCS scenario while it must decrease sharply to 73 g/kwh in 235 under the 2D-NoBECCS scenario.

8 Annual CO2 emissions (MtCO 2 ) under different scenarios 45 Chart Title D 2D_ 22 2D_225 2D-HiBio 2D_22-HiBio 2D_225-HiBio 2D-NoBECCS 2D_22-NoBECCS 2D_225-NoBECCS 2D-NoBECCS-HiBio 2D_22-NoBECCS-HiBio 2D_225-NoBECCS-HiBio

9 Annual mean reduction in global CO 2 emissions between peaking year and 235 In these no-beccs scenarios, the amount of biomass available does not affect the rate of reduction When BECCS is available, the amount of bioenergy does influence the optimal decarbonisation rate

10 CO2 emissions (GtCO 2 ) under 1.5D scenarios D_Lbio 1.5D_Hbio 1.5D_NoBECCS_Lbio 1-5D_NoBioCCS_HBio In order to meet the 1.5 C target without BECCS, CO 2 emissions should decrease at a rate of 11% annually between 215 and 22 while the scenarios with BECCS require annual reduction rates of 4-7% depending on the scenario.

11 Marginal CO 2 prices ($/tco 2 ) under different 1.5 C scenarios D_Lbio 1.5D_Hbio 1.5D_NoBECCS_Lbio 1-5D_NoBioCCS_HBio This clearly shows that meeting the 1.5 C target is infeasible without BECCS as it needs a carbon price of over a thousand USD per tonne of CO 2 in 22.

12 Conclusions BECCS can reduce the pressure on near-term mitigation requirements under a 2 C scenario. BECCS alone captures and stores 5.1 GtCO 2 in 25 with an installed capacity of 623 GW. Unavailability of BECCS requires the almost complete removal of coal from electricity production by 235. Unavailability of BECCS doubles the carbon price required in 25 to meet the 2 C target from 15 to 3 $/t(co 2 ). Later action combined with no-beccs (delaying the peaking year to 225) can further double the carbon price required to meet the target. Without BECCS, the targets simply become implausible certainly 1.5 degrees but perhaps also 2 degrees. Ref: The future for bioenergy systems: the role of BECCS? Chapter 4; Edited by Gough et al. Biomass Energy and Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): Unlocking Negative Emissions, Wiley, forthcoming