N=!"#$%&'()*+*,-./ L!"#$% =ONMMQQ O=!"#$%&'()*#+, =OQNMMM P=!"# $ %& =NMMMUN

Transcription

1 = = = = = 10 = 6!"#$% PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 10 No. 6 November 2014 doi: /j.issn ,,,.!"#$%& '()*+,-./012=[J].!"#$%, 2014, 10 (6): !"#$%& '()!"#$%& N == O N N N NIP NIP NIP N=!"#$%&'()*+*,-./ L!"#$%=ONMMQQ O=!"#$%&'()*#+,=OQNMMM P=!"# $%&=NMMMUN = !"#$%&%'()*+,-./!"#$%!"#!"#$%!4!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&!"#'()*+,-.!"#/01!" !"#$%&'( )*+,!"#!"#$%&!"'() 9.37 km / km /km hm 2!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*!!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+,-./01234!!"#$%&'()*+!!!!"#$! = ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%!" 10% 70%!"#$%&'() x1z!!"#$%&'()*#+, hm 2 /a!" 652 hm 2 /a2090!"#$% 1581 hm 2 /a 901 hm 2 /a x2z 21!"!"#$%&'() 1073 hm 2 /a x3z!"#$%&'()!"#!"#$%&'()*+,- x4z!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"!"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&%'() 20 90!"#$%&'()*+ 896 /a21! 12!"# 1050 /a!"# ====!"#$%&'()#*#$+,"-!"#$%&'() x5z!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&' x5z!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-./.!"#$%&'()*+,-.ipcc!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& SREX!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!!"#$!! ! !!"#$%&'() CB CB430205!!!!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()yjwang78@163.com!"#$!" ===========subd@cma.gov.cn

2 = = = = = 392!"#$% = 2014!"#$%&'()!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"!"!"#!"#$!"#$% x6z ====!"#$%&'()!"!"#$! x5-6z!"#$!"#$%!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./!!"#$%&'!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+, x7z!"#$%&'()* x8-9z!"#$ x10z!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-./01"2!"#$%&'()*+,-./01234!"#$%&'()*+,-./012&!" N==!" NKN== ====!"#$%&'()*"#)+,! 31!"#!"#$ !"#$%2012!GDP!"#$ 1984!"#!"#"$%&'()*+,-*.+/)!"#$ !"#! 2012!!"#$% GDP!"#$%&'1990!"#$%&'()*+,-. ====!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+'! 575!!"#$% !"#$%& NKO==!"#$%&'()*+, ====!"#$%&'!"#$!"!"!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& x5-6z!"#$%&31!"#$!"#$ x11z!"#$%& GDP!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*!"#!"#$% ====!"#$%&'()*+,- x5-6z!"#$%&'()#$%&*+,- DRI x8-9i12z !"#$%&'()*!+,-.!!"#$%&' ()*+,-./0!"#$!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&!"#$%&'(!"#$% GDP! O==!"#$%& '()* OKN==!"#$% ====31!"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&'%()*+,- 1!"#$%&'()* km 2!"#$%&'()*!!"#!"#$ 0.40 km 2!"#$!" 1.20 km 2!"#$%&'! 70 km 2!"#$%&'(!"# !"#$%&'(! / km !"#$% !"#$ Fig. 1 Average annual affected areas of flood disaster in China for the period 1984J2012

3 6!!"#$%& '()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()! km km !"#!"#$ 8.98 km == !"#$%&!'()*+,-./ Table 1 Tendency rate of exposure and vulnerability of flood disaster in China for the period 1984J2012! km 2 /a!" ( /km 2 )/a!" ( /km 2 )/a!"# km 2 /a!" %/a!" %/a J * * 4.19* J * * J1.47* * * J1.49* J0.091 J * 3.50 * 1.59* * * * J5.76* J * * 5.73* * J * * 7.02* * J * * J * J * * 0.10 J * * 11.39* * J0.026 J * 8.82 * 15.63* J * * 1.55* * J * * 1.86* J0.127 J * * 5.40* J J0.103 J * * J3.74* J * * J1.23* * J0.026 J * * 1.52* J * 3.62 * 10.62* J * * 1.72* * 0.70 * J0.04 * * * J * J * * J1.15* J * * J3.13* * * * J1.23* * * J14.46* * J * * J0.54* J 0.32* 0.17 * 0.13* * 1.31 * 7.68* * J * 7.24 * 10.14* * * * J8.96* J0.050* J * J2.00* * J 1.15* * 62.06* * J0.036*!"#$%&!"#$%&! 95%!"# *

4 = = = = = 394!"#$% 2014!"#31!"#$%&'()*! 1 OKO==!"#$ ====!"# $%"&'( !"#$%&' 126 /km 2!"#$%&'()*+,-./01*-!"#$!"#$% & 500 /km 2!!"#$% 2556 /km 2!!"#$%&'10 /km 2 2! !"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()!"#$%& 61 /km 2!" /km 2 1!!"#1.15 /km 2!"#$% /km /km !"#$% /km 2!" /(10 2 /km 2 ) !"#$% !"#$% Fig. 2 Average population exposure of flood disaster in China for the period 1984J2011 OKP==!"#$ ==== GDP!"#$%& !"#$%&' 149 /km 2!"#$%&'(#)*+,-./012!"#$%&'( 1000 /km 2!"#$%&'()*9430/ km 2!"#$%&' 500 / km 2!"#$%&'( 12 /km 2 3!"#$%&'(!"#$ 131!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!1039/km 2!"#!"#$%&'100/km 2!"#$%&'( /km 2!! /km /km !"#$% /km 2!" /(10 3 /km 2 ) !"#$% !"#$% Fig. 3 Average annual economic exposure of flood disaster in China for the period 1984J2012 OKQ==!"#$% ====!"#$%&!'()*+, !"#$%&'()*+,1.53 hm 2!"#$%&'()*+,-./+,!"#$!"#$%&'()!"#!"#$%&' hm hm hm 2!"#!"#$ 22.5 hm 2 4!!"#$%&'()* 1!"!"#$%&'()*+ 62 hm 2 /a!" hm hm !"# 1.57 hm 2 15!"#!"#$%&'()11!"#$%&

5 6!!"#$%& '()*+,-./ !"# /(10 2 hm 2 ) !"#$% !"#$%& Fig. 4 Average annual crop exposure of flood disaster in China for the period 1985J2012!"#$%&'(!"!" 15.6 hm 2 /a!"#$%& 14.5 hm 2 /a P==!"#$%&'()*+ PKN==!"#$ ==== !"#$%&'()*!"# 20 80!"# ! !"#$ !"#$%&'()* !"#!!"900!"!"#$%!"#$% 1!"#$%!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!" !"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"5!31!"#$%!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'() 14!"#$%!!"#$%&'()!"#! 1 PKO==!"#$ ==== !"#$%&'()* 50N 40N 30N!" /% 0~1 20N 2~5 5~10 10~15 50N 40N 30N!" /% 0~1 2~5 20N 5~10 10~ N 40N (a) (b) (c) N!" /% 0~1 2~5 20N 5~10 10~ E 90E km km km 100E 110E 120E 130E 5!"#$%&'()*+,-. Fig. 5 Spatial variation of population vulnerability of flood disaster in China!"#$ ! 10!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%!"#$%&'()* 98.60!"#$%&! !"#$%&'(!"#$! 1!"!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./012!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!!"#$%!"#$!"# !"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%!"!"#!"#$%&' 6!"#$%

6 = = = = = 396!"#$% = N 40N 30N 20N 50N 40N 30N 20N 50N 40N 30N 20N (a) !" /% 0~ ~ ~ km (b) !" /% 0~ ~ ~ km 2 (c) !" /% 0~ ~ ~ km 80E 90E 100E 6!"#$%&'()*+,-. Fig. 6 Spatial variation of economic vulnerability of flood disaster in China! 1!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'31 21!"#$!"#$%&'() 10!"!"# Q==! 110E 120E 130E ====!"#$%&'()!"#!"#$%! 4!"#$%&'!"#$%&'( !"#$%&'()!*+, km 2!"#$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&!"'() 126 / km /km hm 2!"#$!"#$!"!" 30!!"#$%&'()*+,-!.!!"#$%&'!"#$%!!"#!"#$%&!'()*+,!"#!"#$%&'()*+,! 3!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&'!"()*+,-!"#$%&!'()*+,-./ 3!"#$%&'()$%&!" 30!"#$%&'( 3!"#$%&'()"#*+,-./0,1!" #$!"#$%&'( 4!"#$%&'"()!"#!"#$%&'()*+, ====!"#$%&'()*+,-()*.!"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()(*+,!-./!!!"#$!%&'(!"#$%&'(#$%)*+!"!"#$%&!"#$%!"!"#$%&'()*+,'()-./0!"#$%& '!()*+,-./!"#$%&'!!"#$%!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&' x8z x8-9z!"!gdp!"#$%&'()**++!"#$!"#!!"#$%&'()*+,-!!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$!%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'()gdp!"#$%

7 6!!"#$%& '()*+,-./ !"#$%&'(")*+,- ====IPCC SREX!"#$%& L!"#$%&'(! L!"#$%&'!"# L!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$ x6z!"#$%&'"(!"#! 575!" !"#$%&'()#$*+, Wakeby!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()'*+,-./01!"#$%&!"#$%&'!!"!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&!'()*+,-!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$!"#!"!"#$%&'!" x13z!!"#$%&'()*+,!-./!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%!"!"#$%&!"#$!"# $%&'!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./0)123!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"!"#$%&'()*+,-! [1],.!"#$%&'()[J].!, 2010, 29 [2] (6): ,,. 19!"#$%&'()*+,-. [J].!"#, 2011, 26 (12): [3],,, !"#$%&'()!"#$ [J].!, 2011, 29 (5): 5-9 [4],.!"#$%&'( [J].!, 2008, 26 (5): 4-7 [5],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-!!"#$ [J].!"#$%, 2012, 8 (2): [6] IPCC. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: a special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012: 2-18 [7],.!" #$%&'()*+,!"# [J]., 2013, 28 (1): [8],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,-. [J].!, 2009, 29 (6): [9],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 [J].!"#, 2012, 32 (5): [10],,,. 3S!"#$%&'(!" [J]., 2012, 27 (2): [11],,. 50!"!#$% [J]., 2004, 25 (1): [12],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,- [M]. :!", 2008: [13],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,-[J].!, 2011, 31 (10):

8 = = = = = 398!"#$% = 2014 Temporal and Spatial Variation of Exposure and Vulnerability of Flood Disaster in China Wang Yanjun 1, Gao Chao 2, Wang Anqian 1, Wang Yuyan 1, Zhang Feiyue 1, Zhai Jianqing 1, 3, Li Xiucang 1, 3, Su Buda 1, 3 1 School of Geography and Remote Sensing/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing , China; 2 College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu , China; 3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing , China Abstract: Using flood disaster historical data and social economic data in China for the period 1984J2012, the characteristics of disaster exposure were analyzed from the scope of disaster exposure, population exposure, economy exposure and crop exposure, and those of disaster vulnerability were analyzed from two aspects of population vulnerability and economy vulnerability. The results show that from 1984 to 2012, the average scope of disaster exposure, population exposure, economy exposure and crop exposure was respectively km 2, 126 person/km 2, RMB 1.49 million/km 2 and 153 million hm 2. The level of exposure significantly increased overall, the areas with the highest exposure were mainly distributed in the coastal provinces (municipalities). Significant increase trend was found for population vulnerability, but economy vulnerability had a gradually-decreasing trend. The highest level of disaster vulnerability were mainly distributed in Hunan, Anhui, Chongqing, Jiangxi and Hubei provinces (municipalities) along the coast in the middle reach of Yangtze River, and Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin are areas with the lowest level of disaster vulnerability. High vulnerable areas of flood disaster are also the most prone areas of flood disaster in China, which no doubt become high risk areas of flood disaster. Therefore, as far as the design and implementation of strategies and policies for adaptation and disaster risk management are concerned, more attention should be paid to these regions to reduce the vulnerability and exposure, and to improve the resilience towards the adverse effects of flood disaster, so as to promote the sustainable development of society and economy. Key words: exposure; vulnerability; flood disaster; temporal and spatial variation