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Terence Armstrong
6 years ago
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= = = = = 9 = 4!"#$% 213 7 PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 9 No. 4 July 213 doi:.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.213.4.5.!"#$%&'()*+=[j].!"#$%, 213, 9 (4): 266-274!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-=NMMMPU =!

1 = = = = = 9 = 4!"#$% PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 9 No. 4 July 213 doi:.3969/j.issn !"#$%&'()*+=[j].!"#$%, 213, 9 (4): !"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-=NMMMPU =!"#$%&'()*+,IEABPEDGAR/PBL/JRCCDIACEIA CAIT!"#$%&!"#$%&!'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'(!"!"#$%&'( )*+,-.!/123!IEACAIT!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-.!!"! = ====!"#$%&'()*+,%-./ Second National Communicaiton on Climate Change of the People s Republic of China, SNC !"#$%&'()* UNFCCC!"#$ x1z!"!!"#$%&'()*+,-./! 25!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'INC !"#$ x2z 27!"#$%&!"NCCP24!"# x3z!"#$%&'()*+,!"# 29 22!" F!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'( ====!"#$%& '()*+,-.$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&!"#!!"!"#$!%&'(!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(#!"#$%&' N==!"#$`l O!"#$%&!"# NKN==!"#$%&'() OMMS OMNN ==== 1!"#$%&'(!"! ; =! !!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!345212BAC2B2!!!"!"#$%&'()*+ zhusongli@eri.org.cn =!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#$%&'()!"!"#!"#$%

2 4!!"#$%&'()* ==!"#$!"# Table 1 Summary of China s official emission data INC1994 NCCP24 1) SNC25 2)! / t! / t ) 5.7 3) )!"#$% 6) / t /% ) 24!"#$%& !"#$%&'2) 25!"#$%&'() 1994!"#!"#3)!!"!"4)!"#$% 1.6 t5)!"#$% 4.1 t6) LULUCF / t !!"# !"#$%&'() Fig. 1 Trend of China s emission from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in 26J211!"#$%&'()*!"# $%!"#$!"#$ %&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234 === INC SNC 1996 IPCC!"#!"#$%!" IPCC1996!!"#$%& TIER2!"#$!"#$%&'()* x1-2z SNC!"#$%&'&()*+,-./!!"#$! "!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+!"!"!#!!!"#!"!"#$%& x1z!"#$% &'!!"!"#$%&'()!" SNC!"#$ ==== 25!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$% t /TJ 26211!"#$%!"! 1 t!"!!"# 26211!"#$%! 1 ====!"#$%&!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-. 2 8!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&'()*+,(-./1-!"#!"!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$!%&'()*!"#$%&'()* x4z I=!"#$!"#$%&' x5z!"#$% NKO==!"#$%&'()*+'(,-!"#$%&'()*+ ====!"#!"#$%&'()!!"IEA!"#BP!"#$%PBL!"#$%&'( JRC!"#$%&'()*+,- EDGAR!"#$%&!" CDIAC!"#$%&EIA!"#$%WRI!"#$%& CAIT ==== 2!"#$%&'()*+ 25 =!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*"#+!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+ =!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&

3 = = = = = 268!"#$% = 213 / t SNC IEA BP EDGAR CDIAC EIA CAIT (a) / t SNC EDGAR CDIAC (b) 2!"#$ !"=(a)!"#$ (b)!" Fig. 2 Estimation of China s emission from fossil fuel combustion (a) and cement manufacture (b) in 25J211 by various agencies 211!"#$% &'() !"#$%&!"1)!!"#$%& BP[EDGAR[EIA[ IEA=CAIT[CDIAC!!"#$%&'!"#$%!"#$% 28!" 2a 12)!"# EDGAR 25 26!SNC!!!"#$CDIAC!""#$!" 2b 1 O==!"#$`l O!"#$!"#$ OKN==fb^ ====IEA!"#$131!"!!"#$%&'OECD 196 2!"1971 2!!"!"#$ 212!" 2!" ====!"#!IEA IPCC1996!"#$%!"&'()*"TIER1 x6z!"#$!" IPCC1996!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"#$%&!' IEA!"#$%$&'()SNC!"!"#$%&'()* ====!"#$%&'()* IEA!"!"#IPCC1996!" x6z! IEA!"#!"#NSB IEA!"#$%&'()*+,IEA!"#$%&'()*+,-./ IEA!"#$%#&'()*+,#&-.!"#$ ====IEA 25!"!"#!"#$% IEA 26 27!"!"#$%&'!"#$%&'( 2 NSB IEA!" 25!"#!"#$! IEA!"#!"#!" 29 2 NSB!"#$%&'()1996!"#$%!" x 7-8z!"#$%&'()* 25!"#$% &'() 1.5 t!3 t! 26 27!"#$%&'() IEA!"#$!"#$%&'( OKO==_m= ====2126 BP 212!"#$ 72!"#$%&'()$!" x9z BP!"#!"#$%&'

4 !!"#$%&'()* == NSB IEA 25!"#$%&'( Table 2 The comparison of fossil fuel data from NSB (China) and IEA =t (tce) NSB IEA NSB IEA NSB IEA ! J.25 J !"# J.91 J.32 J4.15 J4.22 J.8 J ! ! J.38.8 J.2 J.1! NSB!!"#$%&'29IEA! IEA!"# ====BP!"#$%&'().4%211 NSB!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$!BP!"#$%&'!"#$!!"#$%& 23.8 t (tce)bp tce BP!"#$%!"#$%&'!"#BP!"#$!%&'()*!"#!"#$%&'()*+, ====BP!"#$%&'!"#$%& IEA BP!"#$%NSB!!"#$%&'3BP!"#$!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"2%!"!"#$%&'(22 28!!"#$% 2.5% 29 29!"#$%&'()*+,-211! /% J2 J4 J BP!"#$%&'()*+ Fig. 3 The statistic difference of BP and NSB on China s fossil fuel consumption OKP==bad^o m_i/go`! 2.3.1==!"#$ ====EDGAR! PBL/JRC!"# !"!"#$% 214 x-11z!"# IEA!"#$ IEA!"#$EDGAR!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$%&!"#$%&'(!"#! xz!"!!"!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!'()*+#$,-!"#$%&'()*+,( L!"#!L!"!"!"!"EDGAR!"#!"#$%&'() ====EDGAR 26 IPCC!"#$% IPCC26 1!!"#$%&IPCC1996!"#

5 = = = = = 27!"#$% = 213!"#$%& xz 2.3.2==!"# ====PBL/JRC!" !"!"#$%&'(")*+28 28!"#$%&'( IEA29 211!"#$%&'BP!"#$%!"#$$%&'()*+,-NOAA!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$%&GGFR!"#$%!"#USGS!" I=!" NSB PBL/JRC!"#$%&'!"#WBCSD!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()* USGS!"# WSA 2.3.3==!" ====EDGAR!"#$%&!IEA!"#$ IEA!"#$EDGAR!"#$%&'()*+4!" 28!"#$%&'()*+24t!" 28!"#$ 7 t 2!" 9 t! EDGAR !"#$% BP!"#$ IEA!"#$% / t IEA PBL/JRC!!"#$ Fig. 4 The difference between estimation of IEA and PBL/ JRC on China s emission from energy activities ==== EDGAR!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!" EDGAR!"#$!"#$%&.39 t /t F!!"!"#$%&'()*+25211!"211 61% x12z!" t!"#$%&'()*+,-.!" EDGAR!"#$%&'()! 1 t.54 t 25!"211!"#$%&' 7 t EDGAR!"# 17% ====PBL/JRC!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,#-./ xz 28!"#$%&'()*+!"#$!"#$%&'%!"#$ %&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234 NSB!"#$%&'(%)*+,-./!!"# x13z BP!"#$% L!"#$ OKQ==`af^`= ====213 1 CDIAC!"#!224 L x14z!"#$213 1 CDIAC!"#$%&' x15z CDIAC!"#$%&'()!!"#$%!"#$%&!"!"#$%&'(!)!"#$% CDIAC!"# EDGAR!"#$%&!"#$%&'()!"#$%CDIAC!"#$%&' EDGAR!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()CDIAC!" 28 EDGAR!"#$% IEA!"#$%!"#$ 7.4 t!"#$%&'( 3 4 t!!"#$%& =212 6!"#$%!!"#$%&'()*+,-=EThe Gigatonne Gap in China s Carbon Dioxide Inventories! NSB!"#$%&'!()*+,-./$%12 I=!"#$%&'()"#*%&+, t

6 4!!"#$%&'()*+ 271!"#$%&!'()*+,-./ ====CDIAC!"#$%&'()!"*+ x14i16-17z IPCC1996!"#$!!"#$%&'()*+! ====CDIAC! !"#$!"#$%&'(UNSO!"#!"#$%& UNSO!"#$%! IEA!"#$% x18z!"!"#$%&usgs!"#!"#$%&'()*! EIA!29 2!"# BP!" ====!"#!"#$%&'()*+ CDIAC EDGAR!"#$%&'()!!"#CDIAC IEA!"# EDGAR!"#$%& 2a ====CDIAC!"#$%&'()*+,!"# EDGAR!"#$%& 2b!"#$%EDGAR CDIAC!"#$%&'() OKR==bf^ ==== 212 EIA!"#$%& 217 L1982 x19z!"#$%&'()*+!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-.$%/!"#$%&!"'( x18z EIA!"CDIAC!"!"!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,EIA =!"#$% &'()*+,CDIAC EIA!"#$%&'()*+,-./ EIA!"#$%&'( x2z!"#$%&'()*+,-. x18z ====EIACDIAC!"!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& 2(a)!"#26 27!!"#$%!"#$%&'()*EIA 2! CDIAC t ==== EIA!"#$%&' EIA 27 2!"#$%! NSB!"# 5! EIA!"#$%&'()*+$%,!!"#$%&'()*+,-&'. 2!"#$%&'()*+$%, 4.37 tce29!"#$ 8 tce EIA!"#$%&'(! /% J5 J EIA!"#$%&'()* Fig. 5 The difference between EIA and NSB statistics on China s fossil fuel consumption ====!" EIA!"#$%&' E.7994 kgce/kg F!"#$%&'().7143 kgce/kg 11.9%! 2 EIA!"#$%&'()*+ OKP t!"#$%&'() 4 tce!"#$%&'()*+!,-.! EIA!"!"#CDIAC IEA OKS==tof `^fq ====WRI CAIT!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'(%&)*CAIT!"#3!"!"!!"#!"#$%!"& x21z! 185!!" ====!"!"#$CAIT!!"#$CAIT!"#$%&E!"F!"#$%&!"# CAIT IEACDIAC EIA!"#$%!"#$ 3 CAIT IEA!"

7 = = = = = 272!"#$% 213 3==CAIT!!"# Table 3 Source of energy-related data used in CAIT!" IEA CDIAC EIA! 25 OECD !6!"#$ OECD !6!"#$ ! 53! IEA!" 53!"#$ 1!" IEA CDIAC!"#$%&'()*! CDIAC EIA!"!"!"#$%&'() !" IEA !"# CDIAC ====CAIT!"!"#CDIAC!"# !"#$ CDIAC!"#$!"#$ CAIT!"#$%& OKT==! `l= O!"# ====!"#$!"#$%&'( L!"#!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()%*+,-.!/!"#$%&'() 4 ==== IEA!"!"#$%&!"!"!"#$%&'()!"# IEA!"#$%!"&'!"#$EDGAR EIA!"#$%!"#$!" 28!"!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'() BP!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./1 EIA!"#$%&'(()*+,-!BP!!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'EDGAR CDIAC!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&! 3%!"#$%&'()*!CAIT!"#$%"&'( IEA!"#$%&!"#$%&"#'( 4==!"#$%&'() Table 4 Overall assessments on various GHG database!!!"!!"!! IEA 1) IPCC1996 /! * BP 2) !! EDGAR 3) IPCC26 1 *! CDIAC 4) ! ** EIA 5) ! ** CAIT 6) !"#$!"!"!" 1)!"#$%&'()*+, 25 27!"#2)!"#$%&'(!"3)!"#$% BP 4)!"#$%&!"#$%&'(5)!"#!"#$%&'()6)!"#$%& IEA!"!"#$%& CDIAC *!"#$%&'!"#$**!"#$

8 4!!"#$%&'()*+ 273!"#!"#$%&F!"# IEA!"#$%&'(!"#!"# EDGARBPCDIAC!"!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$% P==!" ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&IPCC1996!"#$%&!"#$%&' 28!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-./ ==== IEACAIT!"#$%&!"#$%&!"#$ %&'()!"#$%&'(!"#$%!CDIAC!"#CDIAC!!"#$!"#CAIT!"#$%&' ====!"#$%&'!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'($)*+!"#$ 45!"#$!"#$%&'() 67!"! x22z!"!"#$%&'(&')!"#$%!"#$#%&'()*+,-./12!"!"#$%&'(!"#!"!"#$%&'!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&' ====!"#$%#&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#BPBP!"#$ EDGAR EIA!!"#$%&!"!"#$%&'( )*+,- x8i13z!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#eia!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$#%&'()*+,-2.94 MJ/kg 5 kcal/kg!"#$%&'()*+,-!!"#$%&'()* +,-. 25!"#$%&'() x23z!"!"#$%&'()22.71 MJ/kg=E543 kcal/ kgf!"#$%&'()* 5% 25!"#$%&'()* MJ/kg!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!!"#$%$&'!"!"#$%&'(!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#!"#$%&'()* ====!"#$%&!"#$%!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"#$!"#$%&'"(! [1] National Development and Reform Commission. Second national communication on climate change of the People s Republic of China [R/ OL]. 212 [ ]. [2]!"#$%&'()*+,-./12.!"#$!"#$%&'() [M]. :!"#$, 24 [3]!"#$%&'.!"#$%&'(=[R/OL]. 27 [ ]. content_61963_4.htm [4].!"#$%&'( [J].!, 211, 1: 184 [5],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-./1 [J].=!, 2, 32 (9): [6] International Energy Agency. emission from fuel combustion: 2 edition [M]. Paris: OECD/IEA, 2 [7]!"#$!%.!"#$% : 29 [M]. :!", 29 [8] Tu J. Industrial organization of the Chinese coal industry [R/OL]. Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Working paper 3, 211 [ ]. http: // pesd.stanford.edu/publications/23284 [9] BP. BP statistical review of world energy June 212 [R/OL]. 212 [213-

9 = = = = = 274!"#$% = ]. globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/ statistical_energy_review_211/staging/local_assets/pdf/ statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_212.pdf [] Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Joint Research Center. Trends in global emission: 212 report [R/OL]. 212 [ ]. [11] Joint Research Center. Global emissions EDGAR v4.2 (November 211) [R/OL]. 211 [ ]. overview.php?v=42 [12]!"#$%#&'(). 211!"#$%&' 212!" [R/OL]. 212 [ ]. n /n /n /n / html [13] Guan D, Liu Z, Geng Y, et al. The gigatonne gap in China s carbon dioxide inventories [J]. Nature Climate Change, 212, 2: [14] Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Global, regional and national fossil-fuel emissions [R/OL]. 213 [ ]. cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html# [15] Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Preliminary emission explanation [R/OL]. 213 [ ]. co2_emis/preliminary emissions_211.xlsx [16],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-./ [J].!"#, 28, 23 (1): [17] Marland G, Rotty R. Carbon dioxide from fissile fuels: a procedure for estimation and results 195J1982 [J]. Tellus B, 1984, 36: [18] Andres R J, Boden T A, Breon F-M, et al. A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion [J]. Biogeoscience, 212, 9: [19] Energy Information Agency. International energy statistics [R/OL]. 212 [ ]. IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=9&pid=44&aid=8 [2] Energy Information Agency. Sources for international energy statistics [R/OL]. 213 [ ]. sources.cfm [21] World Resource Institute. CAIT: greenhouse gas sources & methods [R/ OL]. 211 [ ]. [22],.!"#$%&'()* +,-./1 [J].!"#$%, 212, 8 (5): [23]!"#$%&'().!"#$%&'()*+,-!"# [R]. 2 Comparison and Analysis on Emissions Data for China Zhu Songli Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 38, China Abstract: The paper reviews the emissions data provided by various international organizations and databases (namely IEA, BP, EDGAR/PBL/JRC, CDIAC, EIA and CAIT), and compares them with China s official data and estimation. The differences among these data are due to different scope, method and basic data, particularly the differences in fossil fuel consumption are highlighted. Compared with data from other databases, the IEA and CAIT data have the best comparability with China s official data. The paper recommends that China should enhance its coal statistics, increase the frequency of official data publication and improve the inventory completeness. Key words: ; emission data; comparability

climate analysis indicators tool [CAIT]

climate analysis indicators tool [CAIT] http://cait.wri.org MAJOR MILESTONES in the International Climate Change Regime 2007. COP 13 adopts the Bali Action Plan, establishing a two-track process for negotiating