The water management model WBalMo Elbe - methods, application fields and first results

Transcription

1 The water management model WBalMo Elbe - methods, application fields and first results M. Kaltofen, S. Kaden, M. Hentschel, M. Redetzky H. Koch, K. Mazur O. Dietrich, S. Schweigert WASY GmbH BTU Cottbus ZALF

2 Model System X13 X4 Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) X1 X15 Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Y5 Y3 X2 X3 Water management (WBALMO) Inflow Evaporation Wetlands Z5 Nutrient load (MONERIS) Point source: Industry Point source: Sewage plant Diffuse source: Sealed surfaces Diffuse source: Erosion Development of agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) Development of energy sector (KASIM) Y4 Y8 Y1 Y2 Y7 Z1 Water use Wetlands (MODAM) Households /business (HAUSHALT WASSER) Industry (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Energy / Mining Z4 Z3 Z2 Z1 Water suppliers Industry Mining Power plants Irrigation Minimal flow for conservation Diffuse source: Atmospheric Deposition Diffuse source: Drainage Diffuse source: Surface denudation Diffuse source: Groundwater Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Nutrient concentr. Phytoplankton Oxygen Development of water technologies Y6 (KASIM) Agriculture / Irrigation Transport on inland waterways Transport on inland waterways Z7 Z9 Water quality (QSim) Z6 Z8

3 Contents 1. Contents 2. Methods and instruments for calculation of water resources balance 3. WBalMo Elbe model development 4. WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 5. Conclusions and outlook

4 Methods and instruments Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Deterministic P-Q-Model Q P, PET Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events)

5 Methods and instruments Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Deterministic P-Q-Model Stochastic generated climate series Q P, PET Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Balancing water yield and water demand within socio-economic context Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events) e.g. reliability of water supply or minimum flow

6 Methods and instruments Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Deterministic P-Q-Model Stochastic generated climate series Q P, PET SWIM STAR II WBalMo Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Balancing water yield and water demand within socio-economic context Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events) e.g. reliability of water supply or minimum flow

7 Methods and instruments

8 WBalMo Elbe model development: modular structure Modular structure - 22 modules: central module is Elbeschlauch (Elbe main river) - each module can be used stand-alone

9 WBalMo Elbe model development: water yield Water yield - is an input from precipitation-runoffmodel SWIM: for each simulation sub catchment at its end profile - can be an output from WBalMo: at each balance profile at each step of balancing process

10 WBalMo Elbe model development: water use water qantity [m 3 /s] year-periods Mine water drainage Infiltration losses Mine water drainage minus infiltration losses

11 WBalMo Elbe model development: water management Rank 1 Power plants Withdrawels and ecologically required minimum flows in Saxonia Mi d td hflü i S h Withdrawels, ecologically required minimum flows in Brandenburg and Berlin inflow *) max. 20 Mill. m 3 /a Rank 2 Replenishment of dams and reservoirs Rank 3 Filling of pit lakes Filling Post filling withdrawels *) of Lusation lake chain Filling of pit lakes of Vattenfall Europe Mining year-periods Perioden ( )

12 WBalMo Elbe model development: overview WBalMo BP catchment reservoir dyn. elements water user wetlands Elbe Main River Eger (CR) Lower Vltava (CR) Upper Vltava (CR) Berounka (CR) Upper&Middle Elbe(CR) Spree-Schwarze Elster x Spreewald x Mulde Saale Bode Weiße Elster Drömling x Havel x Rhin Berlin x Nuthe x Buckau x Plane x Gr. Havelländ. channel Dosse-Jäglitz x Lower Elbe x total

13 A u ma WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 9 Drömling Lower Elbe Bode 1 8 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 3 Elbe Main River Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

14 A u ma WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 9 Drömling Lower Elbe Bode 1 8 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 3 Elbe Main River Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

15 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 800 Elbe profil: planning horizon discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau MQ (500 a / 2010) MNQ (500 a / 2010) MQ (observed ) MNQ (observed ) Wehr Geesthacht

16 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ

17 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ QGlW

18 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ Aug(2010) T = 5 a Aug(2010) T = 100 a QGlW

19 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ Aug(2010) T = 5 a Aug(2010) T = 100 a Aug(2035)-MQ Aug(2035) T = 5 a Aug(2035) T = 100 a QGlW

20 A u ma WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 9 Drömling Lower Elbe Bode 1 8 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 3 Elbe Main River Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

21 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results discharge TS Rappbode Waterworks Wienrode: August planning horizon 2010 water availability in August amount [m³/s] MQ-Aug (2010) demand T= 5 a T= 20 a T= 100 a

22 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 4.0 Maximum withdrawal in August (T = 5 a) Waterworks Wienrode (mean demand: 3,36 m³/s) 3.5 STATUS QUO amount [m³/s]

23 A u ma WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 9 Drömling Lower Elbe Bode 1 8 Saale Weiße Elster Water transfer from - reservoir Witznitz and - Mulde river Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane Elbe Main River Mulde Berlin 3 DE DE 2 Berounka CR PL Ohre Lower Labe CR CZ Upper Vltava CR AT 1 Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

24 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results discharge Eula oh. Mdg. Power plant Lippendorf: August planning horizon 2010 water availability in August 0.8 amount [m³/s] MQ-Aug (2010) demand T= 5 a T= 20 a T= 100 a

25 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 1.2 Maximum withdrawal in August (T = 5 a) Power plant Lippendorf (mean demand: 0,98 m³/s) amount [m³/s] 0.6 STATUS QUO

26 A u ma WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 9 Drömling Lower Elbe Bode 1 8 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 3 Elbe Main River Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

27 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results discharge Spree,Mühlendamm Power plant Berlin-Mitte: August planning horizon 2010 water availability in August amount [m³/s] MQ-Aug (2010) demand T= 5 a T= 20 a T= 100 a

28 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results discharge Spree,Mühlendamm Power plant Berlin-Mitte: August planning horizon 2010 water availability in August STATUS QUO SCENARIO amount [m³/s] MQ-Aug (2010) demand T= 5 a T= 20 a T= 100 a

29 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 0.9 Maximum withdrawal in August (T = 5 a) Power plant Berlin-Mitte STATUS QUO SCENARIO 1 amount [m³/s]

30 A u ma WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 9 Drömling Lower Elbe Bode 1 8 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 3 Elbe Main River Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

31 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 70.0 discharge Buna/Saale Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau): August planning horizon 2010 water availability in August amount [m³/s] MQ-Aug (2010) demand T= 5 a T= 20 a T= 100 a

32 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 3.5 Maximum withdrawal in August (T = 5 a) Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) (mean demand: 3,06 m³/s) STATUS QUO amount [m³/s]

33 A u ma WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 9 Drömling Lower Elbe Bode 1 8 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 3 Elbe Main River Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

34 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results 3.5 Evaporation Weiße Elster in August evaporation [m³/s] T = 5 a T = 20 a T = 100 a

35 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results Wetlands - Modeling of water balance in wetlands - 35 wetlands integrated into WBalMo Elbe

36 WBalMo Elbe application fields and first results Wetlands - Change of water withdrawel from period 1 to 10 (median, relating to the wetland area)

37 Conclusions and outlook Conclusions - Water use conflicts exist both for extreme drought situations and for climate change - Water shortages from withdrawals occur in tributaries to Elbe river - In the main Elbe river water use conflict is due to minimum discharges for different purposes Outlook - For all water users vulnerability for extreme drought situations, for climate and socioeconomic changes will be analyzed, - For reservoirs and dams failure in water supply will be analyzed, - For most affected water uses water management options will be developed

38 Thank You for your attention!