Nuclear Energy in Germany

Transcription

1 Mitglied der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft Nuclear Energy in Germany Status and Perspectives Jürgen-Friedrich Hake June 16, 2010 Wolfgang Fischer Jürgen Kupitz Diana Schumann

2 Contents 1. Energy Policy of Germany 2. German Energy System 3. Status of Nuclear Energy in Germany 4. Research on Nuclear Energy in Germany 5. Conclusions Institut für Energieforschung Systemanalyse und Technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE)

3 Major Goals of German Energy Policy Contributing to Sustainable Development by reduction of GHG emissions by 21 % in the period from 1990 to 2012; increasing energy efficiency by 2 % per annum; increasing the share of REN; shut down of nuclear power plants;* use of domestic energy carriers; long-term import contracts for natural gas and oil. * 1 Atomic Law: The use of nuclear energy for the generation of electricity has to be terminated in an orderly manner. Institut für Energieforschung Systemanalyse und Technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE)

4 Primary Energy Supply in Germany PJ Others (8%) Hydro, Wind (2%) Nuclear (11%) Natural Gases (22%) Lignite (11%) Hard coal (11%) Oil (35%) Source: BMWi: Energiedaten 2009 J.-Fr. Hake, W. Fischer, J. Kupitz, D. Schgmann

5 Final Energy Consumption of Germany PJ Services, other sectors (16%) Households (27%) Transport (28%) Industry (29%) Source: BMWi: Energiedaten 2009

6 Gross Electricity Production of Germany 700 4% 600 6% % Hydro Wind TWh % 13% 2% Nuclear Other fuels Natural Gas Oil Lignite % Hard coal % Source: BMWi: Energiedaten 2009 WS 2009/2010 J.-Fr. Hake, M. Sander, S. Vögele / 6

7 CO 2 -Emissions of Germany Mt CO Others (0%) Agriculture (1%) Power and Heating Plants (47%) Industry (11%) Small consumers (4%) Transport on Road (17%) Other Transport (1%) Private Households (10%) Industrial Processes (10%) Source: BMWi: Energiedaten 2009

8 Time table for the nuclear phase-out

9 Nuclear Waste in Germany Total accumulated waste from all nuclear power stations 170,000 m 3 with negligible heat generation. In addition there will be 9 to 10,000 t heavy metal from the burned fuel.

10 Nuclear Waste Disposal Facilities in Germany

11 Gorleben Moratorium on prospection since 2000 lifted in 2010

12 Der Salzstock Gorleben Quelle: BMWI RWE Power AG

13 Public evaluation of energy sources Results from Poll: Which energy sources shall play a major role in the next 20 to 30 years? (Options listed as below; multiple selection possible) Solar Wind % Gas-fired PP Nuclear PP Coal PP Quelle: Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach

14 Social Acceptance in Germany New study* generating a feeling of optimism: 48 % for lifetime extension, 42 % against; permanent safe solution for radioactive waste could change the debate: 61 % for further use of nuclear energy if final disposal is assured, 36 % even then against further use.** For the interpretation of poll results it is important to take into account the study design, context. General trend assessment: debate about nuclear energy is still polarized, but not that aggressive than in the past; some more acceptance of nuclear energy as a reality compared to 80s and 90s. But nuclear scepticism still widespread, nuclear energy today is not the preferred energy source; construction of a new reactor has no societal support. * TNS Emnid Study 2009 for Deutsches Atomforum ** quintessence in line with the Eurobarometer 2008 results

15 CDU/ CSU FDP Green Party SPD The LEFT Political parties and nuclear energy* Renewables Nuclear Energy Coal Climate Policy Share of electricity generation 30%, share of primary energy 20% till 2020 Share of primary energy: 20% in 2020 Share of total energy supply: 100% till 2040, share of electricity generation: 40% till 2020, share of heating: 30% till 2020 Share of electricity generation 35% in 2020 and 50% in 2030,further increase after 2030 at least 50% of electricity and 25% of heat market till Transition technology, opposition to new nuclear power plants, life-span extension with some levy on additional profits, resuming Gorleben exploration Transition technology, life-span extension of secure nuclear power plants with some levy on additional profits, resuming Gorleben exploration Support for nuclear phase-out, early switch-off of nuclear power plants with old and especially risky technology, global phase-out, open-ended search for a final storage facility Phase-out till 2021, open-ended search for a final storage facility Immediate phase-out of all nuclear power-plants, search for a new final storage facility at the expense of energy companies Modernisation of conventional power plants, subsidization of CCS Subsidization of CCS, permission for new coal-fired power plants, if re-fitting with CCS-technologies is possible No new coal-fired power plants, opposition to CCS Modernisation of conventional power plants, further development of CCS; subsidization of German hard coal medium term: phaseout of coal-fired power plants, no new coalfired power or CCS Reduction of GHGemissions by 40% compared to 1990 till 2020 Reduction of GHGemissions in the EU by 30% compared to 1990 till 2020 within the EU Reduction of GHGemissions by more than 80% - in developed states: by more than 95% - till 2050 Reduction of GHGemission by 40% compared to 1990 till 2020 GHG-reduction by 50% compared to 1990 till 2020 and by 90% till 2050 *Election Programmes 2009

16 Research on nuclear energy in Germany Expenditures of the Five German Energy Research Programmes* (Mill EUR) Sector of research funding Coal & other fossil fuels amount Renewables, efficient energy use Nuclear energy, disposal nuclear facilities Fusion amount * , , , , since 2005; Source:

17 Recent developments in Germany on nuclear energy Studies indicate the economic relevance of a life time extension of nuclear power plants in Germany. A new tax on nuclear fuel has been proposed. A recent study also states that a continued use of nuclear power contributes to higher energy security in Germany. German Federal Government has announced to publish its energy concept this summer. Germany takes an active role in the formulation of the energy policy of the EU. International cooperation will remain an important goal of German energy policy. Institut für Energieforschung Systemanalyse und Technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE)

18 Conclusions Nuclear energy is regarded as a transition energy, but the meaning of transition is contended even within the ruling parties: life-time extension for how many years under which conditions? The life-time-extension evokes difficult constitutional and political problems: - consent of the Second Chamber necessary? - would a new government revoke life-time-expansion (flip-flop-policy)? - which implications does that have for investment-strategies? Neither a initiative nor support for building a new power station in Germany is foreseeable (public, politics, energy industry). Final disposal will be furthermore a heavily contested issue. But even solving that issue can not wind social acceptance of new nuclear facilities as long as alternatives are available. The Germany nuclear exit model loses support in other European Countries and within the European Union (Commission, Council, Parliament). Imported nuclear energy will still be used in Germany for a long time in a European electricity market even after Germany has closed the last nuclear power station probably with no public resistance.