ELECTRICITY DEMAND FROM HEATING AND COOLING IN EUROPE UNTIL 2030/2050

Transcription

1 ELECTRICITY DEMAND FROM HEATING AND COOLING IN EUROPE UNTIL 2030/2050 Michael Hartner, Sebastian Forthuber, Andreas Müller, Lukas Kranzl, Marcus Hummel, Sara Fritz, Eric Aichinger IAEE European Conference, TU Wien - Energy Economics Group (EEG)

2 Content Introduction and main research questions Methodolical approach and involved models Results Development of annual electricity demand for heating and cooling in Europe until 2050 Impact on hourly demand for electricity Conclusions 2

3 Introduction and research questions Currently electricity demand for heating and cooling amounts to more than 420 TWh/a (12 % of final demand for heating and cooling and 15.5 % of electricity demand in Europe) 2 Trends: Increasing share of heat pumps substitution of existing electrical heating and additional installations Increasing electricity demand for cooling due to higher temperatures and even more through additional installations of AC systems What is the effect on the electricity system? Development of hourly peak demand for electricity driven by heating and cooling What is the correlation with renewable generation? Importance of demand response? Related projects: Mapping EU heat supply ( Strategic Energy Roadmap ( WP5 demand perspective 3

4 Modelling approach and involved models Building stock model: Model: Invert-EE/Lab - Development of annual heating and cooling demand until Split of end use and energy carrier mix for EU 28 - Applied technologies for heating and cooling Transformation into hourly load profiles: Model: eload - Temperature dependent hourly load profiles for heating and cooling - Consistent hourly electricity system load for EU 28 countries up to 2050 Input for elecricity system models 4

5 Development of annual electricity demand for heating and cooling in Europe until 2050 Electricity demand for heating and cooling is expected to be rather constant until 2050 (around 400 TWh/a) Total heating and cooling Electricity demand for heating is expected to decrease due to higher thermal efficiency improvements and higher outdoor temperatures (decrease of more than 50% until 2050) Electricity for heating and cooling Electricity demand for cooling is expected to increase significantly due to higher temperatures and diffusion of cooling systems (increase of more than 300% from today until 2050, still only 9% of final energy demand for cooling and 91% for heating) 5

6 Hourly load profiles for heating and cooling Relationship between temperatures and load: Example Spain Electrical load [GW] Temperature C

7 Hourly load profiles for heating and cooling further examples Germany France Romania Italy 7

8 Development of hourly load for EU 28 System load electricity [GW] Despite an increase of heat pumps demand peaks in winter are not expected to increase significantly (depends on scenarios) Although cooling still plays a minor role in total final energy demand, significant demand peaks will result from cooling electricity demand peaks in EU 28 are Hour expected to be dominated by cooling loads

9 High cooling peaks and PV generation? Solar radiation vs. system load in Spain 2050 Load peaks occure at times with relatively high solar radiation PV can partly cover load peaks Increased cooling needs reduce the decline in market value of PV System load [GW] Solar radiation (W/m 2 ) 9

10 Main conclusions Electricity demand for heating in a current policy setting is expected to decrease despite the increased use of heat pumps Peak loads in many EU countries are nevertheless still dominated by electricity used for heating On EU 28 level cooling could be the main driver for peak demand hours by the year 2050 Load peaks due to cooling can become a problem in some EU countries However there is also a strong correlation with PV generation which might reduce the need for additional generation capacity. Residual load peaks in summer are more likely to occure on hot summer evenings The hours between 6pm and 9pm will be the hours with highest electricity demand in summer and winter target hours for grid operators and demand response 10

11 Orig. Photo: Patrick Stargardt Thank you for your attention! Michael Hartner

12 Methodological approach and involved models 12

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14 Hourly load profiles for heating and cooling for EU 28 14

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