Strategies and Instruments for Low-Carbon Transport Systems in Asia

Transcription

1 The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S6), the Ministry of the Environment, Japan Symposium Challenges to Low Carbon Asia (13/10/17) Strategies and Instruments for Low-Carbon Transport Systems in Asia Principal Investigator: Prof. Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University S 6 5(1): Prof. Y Hayashi (Nagoya Univ), Dr. H Kato, Dr. K Nakamura, K Ito, M Fujita S 6 5(2): Prof. A Fukuda (Nihon Univ), Dr. T Ishizaka, Dr. H Ito S 6 5(3): Dr. S Hanaoka (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Dr. K Nakamichi S 6 5(4): Prof. F Nakamura (Yokohama National Univ), Prof. T Okamura (Toyo Univ) S 6 5(5): Prof. T Okuda (Nanzan Univ) 1

2 Risk of rapid growth in CO2 emission in developing countries in Asia Developed Countries Per Capita GHG Emission Developing Countries Leap frog Backcasting Low Carbon Society 2014/1/21 2

3 School boy waiting a bus at 4:30 am in Suburb of Bangkok Bangkok Post 4 Sept 1993

4 Slower than walkers in Sukunvit, Bangkok Photo by Hayashi(1993)

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7 Visioning Future Transport Systems with Key Indicators GDP CO 2 BAU Economic Growth+Ageing 時間 時間 Walk 16% Bus 41% Rail 4% Bus 38% Car 43% Walk 2% Car 56% Leap Frog AVOID Avoid Unnecessary Travel SFHIT Shift to Low Carbon Mode IMPROVE Improve Transport Emission intensity Reference Tokyo (2008) 25% 13% 6% 56% London 39 % 17 (2007) % Car Bus Rail Walk 25 % 19 %

8 Policy/technology options(cute Matrix) Strategies Means Technologies AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Transport oriented development (TOD) Poly-centric development Efficient freight distribution Railways and BRT development Interchange improvement among railway, BRT, bus and para-transit modes Facilities for personal mobility and pedestrians Development of electric vehicles Development of biomass fuel "Smart grid development Regulations Land-use control Separation of bus/para-transit trunk and feeder routes Local circulating service Control on driving and parking Emissions standards Top-runner" approach Information Telecommuting Online shopping Lifestyle change ITS public transport operation "Eco-driving" ITS traffic-flow management Vehicle performance labeling Economy Subsidies and taxation to location Park & ride Cooperative fare systems among modes Fuel tax/carbon tax Subsidies and taxation to low-emissions vehicles

9 Neglecting Railways in Bangkok Photo by Hayashi (1994)

10 Mass Rapid Transit Master Plan in 2020 Thammasat Rangsit Maha Chai (80.8 km) Lam Luk Ka Bang Pu (66.5 km) Bang Yai Rat Burana (42.8 km) Salaya Hau Mak (54 km) Bang Sue ThaPhra Phutthamonthon sai 4 (55 km) Khae Rai Min Buri (36 km) Lat Phrao Sam Rong (30.4 km) Taling Chan Thailand Cultural Center Mon Buri (32.5 km) 2013/10/16 Yod se Bang Wa (15.5 km) 10 lines, total distance 464 km Success in 3 projects More public support Government policy shift to Railway (2011) 10

11 Socio Economic Vision Visioning Future Society in Asia Aggressive Growth (Efficiency Demanding) Society Economically Developed Socially Matured Moderate Growth (Sufficiency Seeking) Environment More Technological Approach for Solution Employment More Full time Employment Education More Education for Career Development More Behavioral Approach for Solution More Flexible Working Style More Education for Social Responsibility Safety More Technology based Protection More Community based Protection Health More Medical Treatment Reliance More Precautionary Health Care Production Efficiency Oriented Mass Production For Local Consumption Style Lifestyle Work Oriented More Social Activities Travel Purposes Private Working Age Business Commuting Shopping Private Elderly Business Commuting Shopping TOKYO (2008) TOKYO (2008) 11

12 Per capita GDP(1000US$) Driving Force per capita GDP (1000 US$) Driving Forces of Society in Asia 1Economic growth (vs2010) China (5.5~8.9) Thailand (3.7~8.1) Ageing in Thailand ( ) 2Populationchange (vs2010) Population growth growth ratio from ration from % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Japan Thailand China Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision % 12.0% 14.4% 17.2% 20.2% 23.4% 26.2% 28.5% 30.4% 2.92 times ( ) Age

13 The Framework of Backcasting Approach to Developing Low-Carbon Systems (S6) Driving Force Economic Growth Ageing Technology Innovation Society Future Vision Scenarios S6-1 CO 2 Environment S6-5 GDP QOL Employment Safety Health Education Urban Land-use Transport System Production/ Consumption Style Interregional Policy Design Urban Land-use Transport Policies Interregional

14 Urban Vision Decomposing the Vision(Target) of Urban Transport Systems into Low Carbon Strategies Mitigation AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE CO2 emissions GDP Aggressive Growth (Efficiency Demanding) Moderate Growth (Ageing / Sufficiency seeking) = Travel Demand Car Dependency Energy Efficiency (Travel Distance) (Modal Split) (CO 2 Emissions/km) GDP Urban Sprawl Downsizing Transport GDP Road Oriented Development Motorisation Seamless Public Transport Mobility Transit Oriented Urban Lifestyle GDP Congestion Energy Efficient Technology & Supply Chain Environmentally-Friendly Industrial Complex 14

15 Urban Vision Proposing Vision: Hierarchically Connected Compact City AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Well Connected Hierarchical Urban Cores Hierarchical Public Transport System Low Carbon & Efficient Road Transport System CBD Transit Oriented Development(TOD) Sub Centers Mass Rapid Transit(MRT) TOD on MRT Corridor Community based Paratransit Feader Shared Personal Mobility Integrated Public Transport with ICT

16 Urban Vision Reliable TODMobility on MRT Corridor Examining Quality of Life (Mobility) Case of Bangkok Community based Affordable Mobility Paratransit Feader Comfortable Shared Personal Mobility Mobility Integrated Safe Mobility Public Transport with ICT for Economic Growth for Necessary Activities for Active Life for Communal Education Income Privacy [min/privacy] Burglar [% /0.15% crime] Traffic accident [min/0.6% accident] Cost [min/25baht] Transfer [min/2transfer] Low income Travel time 100 [min] Potential Quality of Life (Mobility) Delay [min/delay] Protection [min/protection] Flexibility [min/flexibility] Space Access [min/10min access] [min/0.61m²] High income Age Privacy [min/privacy] Burglar [% /0.15% crime] Traffic accident [min/0.6% accident] Cost [min/25baht] Transfer [min/2transfer] Travel time Younger [min] Delay [min/delay] [min/protection] Flexibility [min/flexibility] Access [min/10min access] Space [min/0.61m²] Protection Elderly 16

17 Urban Vision Inclusion of the Low Carbon Transport Vision in Policies in Asian Developing Cities Khon Kaen city, Thailand CO2 Emission [t CO2/year], BAU 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 IMPROVE 1,483 15,031 12,050 68, SHIFT, IMPROVE AVOID, SHIFT, IMPROVE 20.7% 29.8 % 48.2% 1,387 8,017 7,849 32,935 BRT ソンテウ トラック 二輪車 乗用車 0 BAU IMPROVE IMPROVE+SHIFT IMPROVE+SHIFT+AVOID AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Transit Oriented Development (More population along BRT corridors) BRT Development (5 new routes) More Low Emission Vehicle use (30% of HV, 50% of EV motorcycle, 50 % of EV truck ) 17

18 Urban Vision Leap-Frog Low-Carbon Transport Development CO 2 Bangkok CO 2 Per Capita from transport 3.5t (2007) Bus 49% Car 51% Bus 38% Rail 5% Car 57% BAU Leap Frog Rail Car Master Plan in 2020 Heavy Congestion BTS Sky Train 20km MRT Development 81km 10lines total 464km

19 Steps of the Backcasting Approach 2 Visioning Low Carbon Transport Systems Selecting Effective Policy Packages to Realize the Vision 3 4 Examining the Feasibility of Policy Implementation 1 Capturing Key Causal Relationship of CO 2 Emissions from Transport

20 1 Changes in MRT Networks and Urban Forms Bangkok (7,650km 2 ) Shanghai (6,400km 2 ) Population [person] ~5,000 ~10,000 ~30,000 ~50,000 ~100,000 Pop[million] Pop[million] Rail length[km] Rail length[km] City center (129km 2 ) Urban fringe (1,051km 2 ) Suburb (6,473km 2 ) Rail length City center (114km 2 ) Urban fringe (550km 2 ) Suburb (5,737km 2 ) Rail length

21 Urban Vision Targeting Low Carbon Urban Transport Systems Efficiency Demanding Sufficiency Seeking Tokyo 23 district Mode share 2008 Trip Purpose Private 49% Commuting 31% Business 11% Education 9% Inner London Mode share Trip Purpose Private 69% 2010 Commuting 17% Business 6% Education 8% (2008) (2007) CO 2 per Capita from Transport 1.6t (2004) CO 2 per Capita from Transport 1.2t (2010) 21

22 Urban Policy Roadmap Dynamic Tracking of Transport Related Emission Mechanism Mitigation CO2 emissions 1, km 2 Trip Frequency GDP = Built up Area AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Travel Demand (Travel Distance) Car Dependency (Modal Split) Energy Efficiency (CO 2 Emission / km) Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA Km/ km ,000 40,000 60, GDP Car/1000pop 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA GDP Car Ownership Railway Network intensity Fossil Fuel Share Fuel Efficiency Traffic Speed GDP 22

23 Urban Policy Roadmap km The Effects of Early MRT Development MRT development timing scenario in Bangkok 1Early development 2Later development MRT Master Plan Urban sprawl calming by high density development around stations Pop/km % 26% Car ownership growth calming by rail oriented travel habit Car/1000pop Changes from % 44% 23

24 Road vs Rail : which is more effective for calming traffic congestion Urban Policy Roadmap Travel Time 30% 22% Dro2 Road Sro1 Development Sro2 Travel Time Dra Rail Sra1 Development Sra2 Transport Volume Transport Volume Construction & Operation Cost 2050 Road Oriented Development (Bangkok) CO 2 Emissions: 22% Construction & Operation Cost 2050 Rail Oriented Development (Bangkok) CO 2 Emissions: 45%

25 Interregional Vision The Effects of Integrated Transport Systems on Traffic Congestion and CO 2 Mitigation legend! Industry MRT Inner ring Outer ring car rail bus truck Present 15.2km/h Without MRT 12.7km/h CO 2 :+10.7% Speed: 16.3% Without Inner ring Roads 14.0km/h CO 2 :+1.1% Speed: 8.0% Without Outer ring Roads 8.9km/h CO 2 :+0.8% Speed: 41.7% CO₂ Emissions (Mt CO₂/year) 25

26 Urban Policy Roadmap Identifying Low Carbon Transport Modes in ASEAN CO 2 emission intensity of mass transit CO2/passenger km 200 Car Economic feasibility of MRT development BRT :GDP per capita > 1,000 $ MRT :GDP of city > 30 billion $ Mill. [pop] + 1Mill. [pop] [$/cap] [$/cap] [Pop/ km2] 7cities 4cities BRT MRT 10cities 9cities Least CO 2 emission mode in Asian mega cities Yangon Bangkok Ü ,000 km Vientiane Singapore Jakarta Manila Kuala Lumpur MRT BRT BRT & MRT 26

27 Urban Policy Roadmap The Roadmap for Low Carbon Urban Transport Development in ASEAN Megacities CO 2 emission reduction Million tons 40% 25% 31% 24% AVOID Land use control (3% less annual expansion of built up area) SHIFT 4,568 km MRT development, (6cities, Ave.: 760 km/city) 23,337km BRT development (23cities, Ave.:1015km/city) IMPROVE Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%), Improving Fuel Efficiencies (by 28%) Emission intensity of power generation (2005:1269g CO 2 /kwh 2050: 546g CO 27 2 /kwh)

28 Interregional Vision Decomposing the Vision(Target) of Interregional Transport Systems into Low Carbon Strategies Mitigation AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE CO2 emissions = Travel Demand Air/Truck Dependency Energy Efficiency (Travel Distance) (Modal Split) (CO 2 Emission Factor) GDP GDP GDP GDP Economic Growth Global Industrialisation (Block Economies) Growth in Low Cost Carriers & Motorisation Efficient Supply Chain Low-Carbon Public Transport Mobility Energy Efficient Technology & Operation Rail-Oriented Lifestyle Rail-Oriented Industrial Renovation 28

29 Interregional Vision Proposing Vision: Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport Inland Freight High Speed Rail (HSR) Development between Port Hubs GMS (Greater Mekong Sub region) Kyaukpyu Port Yangon Bangkok Kunming Hanoi Road(Economic Corridor) Phnom Penh Shanghai Local Cities on HSR Megacities on HSR Light Industry Advanced Industry & Commercial Heavy Industry Singapore Cities on Local Freight Rail AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Industrial Rail Oriented Development (ROD) Corridor Rail/Water Oriented Intermodal Transport System Low carbon Vehicles, Aircrafts, Vessels 29

30 Interregional Vision Efficient Industrial Supply Chain Impact analysis to reduce CO 2 emissions by plant location change Scenario 1: Current Industrial location(bangkok) Priority to resilience for disaster Bangkok 100km CO 2 emission 3% Assembly plant supplier Port Port Present Scenario 1 Port Proximity location of Assembly plant and supplier Scenario 2: Priority to low labor cost (Cambodia) Scenario 3: Priority to larger economic market(indian) ( Need of improving +25% 33% Bangkok 530km Production process Ho chi Minh City CO 2 emission Assembly plant Port Supplier Port Port Demand Assembly supplier Present Scenario 2 To India Route 2 (2,000km) Route 1 (5,000km) Via Myanmar From Thailand Via Singapore Assembly plant Supplier Port Port Port CO 2 emission Assembly supplier Sea only Integrated transport Seamless transport 30 using sea and rail or truck 30

31 Interregional Vision Targeting Necessary Rail Use for Low Carbon Interregional Development Case Study: Bangkok Hanoi 1,000km Hanoi (Vetnum) (with / without) Bangkok (Thailand) Optimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO 2 emission 30% time Saving With railway Railway 91.7% 40% CO 2 mitigation 30% time saving Without railway Truck 14.2% Maritime 31

32 Interregional Policy Roadmap (ten billion ton) The Roadmap for Low Carbon Interregional Transport Development in ASEAN and China CO2 emission reduction 26% 17% 46% AVOID SHIFT New GMS wide HSR network is necessary(8.526km) 65% reduction Japan s HSR network : over 2.300km China s HSR network : over 10,000km 32

33 Conclusions Findings Hierarchical Compact City and Mainstreaming Rail & Water can meet diversifying passenger transport demand and growing freight transport demand in GMS % CO2 mitigation is achievable by early urban transit development and HSR development in GMS. Policy Implications Leap frog is required to shift from high carbon road oriented mobility and supply chain to transit oriented urban lifestyle and rail oriented industrial development in Asia. Drastic reforms of life style and production process should be induced by transport reform. 33

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35 Policy/technology options(cute Matrix) Strategies Means Technologies AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Transport oriented development (TOD) Poly-centric development Efficient freight distribution Railways and BRT development Interchange improvement among railway, BRT, bus and para-transit modes Facilities for personal mobility and pedestrians Development of electric vehicles Development of biomass fuel "Smart grid development Regulations Land-use control Separation of bus/para-transit trunk and feeder routes Local circulating service Control on driving and parking Emissions standards Top-runner" approach Information Telecommuting Online shopping Lifestyle change ITS public transport operation "Eco-driving" ITS traffic-flow management Vehicle performance labeling Economy Subsidies and taxation to location Park & ride Cooperative fare systems among modes Fuel tax/carbon tax Subsidies and taxation to low-emissions vehicles

36 Background Increasing necessity of Low Carbon Transport Development in Asia Low Carbon Transport Policy Options Classified by Strategy: AVOID, SHIFT, IMPROVE (GTZ), and by Instrument: CUTE (WCTRS) Necessary Transformation of International Climate Change Funding Schemes to Include Transport Development (TRL, GTZ, ADB) Necessary Reform of Assessment Framework of Investments in International Transport Development to Promote Low Carbon Transport Development in Developing Countries (ADB) Estimation of Potential CO 2 Mitigation from Low Carbon Transport Development in Some Asian Regions based on the Current Trend (ADB, World Bank, ICCT) Backcasting Approach to Low Carbon Transport Development in Some Asian Regions with Scenarios of Transport Technology and Demand (Vibat, ITPS) More Attention is needed to Long term Visions and Roadmaps based on Changes in Production/Consumption Styles to Change Transport Demand in Asia. 36