Coal in a changing climate

Transcription

1 Coal in a changing climate George Peridas Natural Resources Defense Council October 23, 2007

2 Outline Climate and coal Clean coal? Carbon Capture & Storage: can we (just) do it? To-do list A changing world

3 How to reconcile climate change and coal?

4 Action on climate change It is our responsibility as global leaders to forge a new international consensus on how to solve climate change. If we stay on our present path, we face an unacceptable choice: either we sacrifice global economic growth to secure the health of our planet or we sacrifice the health of our planet to continue with fossil-fuelled growth. Condoleezza Rice

5 Our role in the U.S. The United States must: Moderate the growing demand for energy by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses. Develop the legal and regulatory framework to enable carbon capture and sequestration. Provide an effective global framework for carbon management, including establishment of a transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost for carbon dioxide emissions. Lee Raymond; Chair, National Petroleum Council

6 Will emissions keep growing? Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU): world CO 2 emissions to rise by ~50% by 2030 Largest growth from coal Source: DOE-EIA International Energy Outlook, May 2007

7 An enormous emissions potential Trillion tonnes CO2 Nature All Fossil Fuels Fossil Non-Coal Coal In Air Today World Fossil Fuel Resources

8 New coal plant emissions 26% greater than all historic coal CO 2 Lifetime emissions (billion tonnes CO2) % of remaining budget for 450ppm stabilization 0 Coal Use New Coal Plants next 25 years Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2006

9 Outline Climate and coal Clean coal? Carbon Capture & Storage: can we (just) do it? To-do list A changing world

10 Clean coal? Face it: Coal is filthy Clean Sky Coalition

11 MTR/valley-fill mining

12 Fallen peaks in Appalachia

13 What about Western coal? Surface mining in Appalachia: 13% of U.S. total Most Western coal is strip-mined Many SMCRA objectives have not been met Contemporaneous reclamation? Last 10 years in top 5 states (WY, MT, ND, CO, NM): <23,000 acres of land fully reclaimed, out of ~400,000 acres affected Missed inspections: 80% rate Coal production 43%, combined regulatory staff 10% Federal inspections, federal budget Impacts from coal development outweigh the impacts from alternatives (EE, renewables)

14 Outline Climate and coal Clean coal? Carbon Capture & Storage: can we (just) do it? To-do list A changing world

15 CCS has it been done before? Three major international projects: Sleipner (Norway), 1996 Weyburn (Canada), 2000 In Salah (Algeria), 2004 Decades of relevant experience in oil/gas activities: Enhanced oil recovery (since the early 70s) miles of CO 2 pipelines Injection of 35+ MtCO 2 /yr Several pilot capture/injection projects Tens more planned

16 Is it safe? Will it leak? IPCC: fraction retained in appropriately selected and managed geologic reservoirs very likely to exceed 99% over 100 years likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years Formations have stored hydrocarbons for millions to hundreds of millions of years Catastrophic leakage is extremely unlikely Natural CO 2 releases from volcanoes (e.g. Lake Nyos) are not useful analogues [IPCC] Provided there is adequate regulatory oversight

17 Is CCS ready for prime-time? CCS cannot succeed as a commercially successful emission abatement technology without the policy or regulatory frameworks that would allow commercial entities to invest in it. New technology cannot be pushed into industrial-scale deployment, a market is necessary to pull it. Deploying CCS at scale is not as much a question of technology availability but of economic viability. CCS is available today to play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing climate change. Robert Malone, Chairman and President, BP America

18 A low carbon diet We're Carboholics. Make Us Stop. We are not running out of time; we have run out of time. We need to move as quickly as possible toward implementing the low-emissions ways of combusting coal that are under development or, in the case of "coal gasification" technology, are ready for commercial deployment. David Crane, President and CEO, NRG Energy

19 Outline Climate and coal Clean coal? Carbon Capture & Storage: can we (just) do it? To-do list A changing world

20 The three Cs Climat Coal CCS e

21 DOs & DON Ts Maximize energy efficiency and renewables opportunities first Minimize coal s adverse effects upstream and downstream Seek to change the policy framework and marketplace to replace conventional coal with coal+ccs Pick performance standards, not technologies No new conventional coal plants Capture ready plants only capture the imagination Don t plan based on unproven technology: maintain credibility Liquid coal: K.I.S. (Keep It Solid)

22 Policies for CCS Policy Regulations Technology Economics Economy-wide Cap & Trade Performance standards for coal: New Source Performance Standard Low Carbon Generation Obligation Allowance Allocation for CCS Deployment Tax credit for anthropogenic CO 2 capture Incorporate CO 2 in EPA NSR Permitting

23 Outline Climate and coal Clean coal? Carbon Capture & Storage: can we (just) do it? To-do list A changing world

24 The world is changing Oct 06: Stern Review Jan 07: USCAP issues Call for Action Feb 07: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Feb 07: TXU buyout Apr 07: Supreme Court decision Jul 07: Citi and HSBC downgrade coal stocks Sep 07: Vermont clean cars decision Oct 07: USEPA announces proposed rulemaking on CCS regulations, following individual action by several states

25 The world of coal plants too End of 06: 157 coal plants proposed Approaching the end of 07: 60+ coal plants held up or denied because of environmental concerns Sunflower (KS) Waterloo (IA) Red Rock (OK) Glades (FL) Taylor (FL) 8 Reference plants (TX)

26 Conventional coal Each new conventional coal plant built without significant carbon dioxide controls is a step backwards and does not move us towards a future of more safe and efficient energy use. We need to be moving forward, toward new carbon capture ready technologies for power generation, not back to the old dirty coal plants of the past. Gov. Bill Richardson, NM

27 Conventional coal [I will use] every means at my disposal to prevent the construction of new coal-fired power plants in Nevada that do not capture and permanently store greenhouse gas emissions." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

28 How much time do we have? If business as usual continues we will be producing a different planet. We have a very brief window of opportunity to deal with climate change... no longer than a decade, at the most. The most important time-critical action needed to avert climate disasters concerns coal. Most coal use is at power plants, where it is feasible to capture and permanently sequester the CO 2 underground. A spreading moratorium on construction of dirty (no CCS) coal plants is the sine qua non for stabilizing climate and preserving creation. James Hansen, Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies

29 The world is changing Arctic ice could disappear almost completely in the latter part of the century IPCC, AR4

30 Will we?

31 Contact George Peridas, PhD Natural Resources Defense Council 111 Sutter St. 20 th Floor San Francisco, CA