PV Integration in Japan

Transcription

1 IEA PVPS Task 14 Utility Workshop PV Integration in Japan March 31, 2014 Kazuhiko OGIMOTO Center of Energy Engineering, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo

2 Contents 1. Energy Policy in Japan - Strategic Energy Plan/Market Integration 2. Snapshot of Japan s power system in Impact of Scenario Selection - 3. Challenges of RE Integration -Variation and Uncertainty 4. Flexibility Resources - Emerging needs and possibilities 5. Jump Smart Maui Project 2

3 1. Energy Policy of Japan After 3.11: Stop of Nuclear Power Plants 3

4 1.Enegy Policy Japan s Energy Plan Before the Quake After the quake, in order to revise the Basic Energy Plan, there are broad discussions on the future energy mix of Japan including nuclear scenarios in several government committees and among various non-governmental entities. Primary Energy Supply (G litter) Generation (100GWh) Renewable Nuclear 60(10%) Coal 60(23%) Natural G 105(19%) Half of the import fuel is targeted to be Oil from owned source. 344(39%) (About70%) 2007 (Practice) Self-supply (About40%) Renewable Nuclear 122 Coal 88 Natural G 81 Oil (Projected) Zero emission Supply (34%) Renewable Nuclear Coal LNG Oil 2007 (Practice) Zero emission Supply(70%) Renewable Nuclear Coal 21% 53% 11% 13% Oil 205 2% 2030 (Projected) 4

5 1. Energy Policy of Japan 2. Overview of the government draft Positioning of nuclear power Ratio of Nuclear Power(NP)/Addit ional NP building RE Natural Gas Coal Oil Comparison of Old / New Energy Policy OLD Strategic Energy Plan 2010 Backbone energy source in the medium and long term 70% in 2030, nuclear and renewables altogether More than 14 additional NP buildings 10% of the primary energy supply in 2020 including traditional hydros of 8%. Will become an important energy source for low carbon society Shift to natural gas should be promoted Energy source that is excellent at cost and supply stability Will utilize coal appropriately Backbone energy source NEW Draft Strategic Energy Plan (released on Feb 25, 2014) Important base load power source Promote restart once safety is assured Will assess the volume of nuclear power needed to be secured Will accelerate the deployment to the maximum in three years and promote it after that. Will play a core role as the middle electricity source Important energy source whose role will be more significant Important base load power source Will continue to utilize coal reducing the environmental load Will function as a peak electricity source Important energy source from the viewpoint of portability and versatility

6 1. Energy Policy of Japan Deregulation of Electricity Market in Japan In April 2013, two years after the quake, the Cabinet decided the Policy on Electricity System Reform. Three Objectives: 1. Securing the stable supply of electricity 2. Suppressing electricity rates to the maximum extent possible 3. Expanding consumers choice and business opportunities Three agendas: Agenda 1: Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators Agenda 2: Full Retail Competition Agenda 3: Unbundling of the transmission/distribution sector Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI): Electricity Market Integration in Japan 6

7 1. Energy Policy of Japan Deregulation of Electricity Market in Japan Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI): Electricity Market Integration in Japan 7

8 1. Energy Policy of Japan Deregulation of Electricity Market: OCCTO Thee Missions of the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO): Cross-regional merit-order system and competition Transmit electricity beyond regions under a tight supply-demand situation RES Integration Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI): Electricity Market Integration in Japan 8

9 1. Energy Policy of Japan Feed-in-Tariff :Tariff and Approved PV Projects Approved PV projects under FIT reached 26 GW from July 2012 to Nov. 2013) FIT <10kW Yen/kWh 38 Yen/kWh 10kW 42 Yen/kWh (40 + Tax) 37.8 Yen/KWh (36 + tax) By courtesy of RTS Corporation, Source: METI 9

10 1. Energy Policy of Japan Feed-in-Tariff: Boom of PV Deployment From FIT Approved projects of 26 GW as of November 2013, only 6.3 GW has been commissioned. Approval of the project does not ensure grid connection and land use. The actual difficulties come from high construction & land cost, long delivery time, and shortage of workforce. By courtesy of RTS Corporation, Source: METI 10

11 1. Energy Policy of Japan Feed-in-Tariff: Change of Tariff The FIT from July 2012, among the specified renewable energies, triggered a boom of PV deployment with shorter project period. The governmental FIT committee proposed the revision of FIT price after public consultation from March 10 th to 19 th. The Minister of METI will shortly decide the FIT price for FY2014. National subsidy for residential PV system is to be terminated at the end of FY 2013 (March 2014). Category by PV Capacity FY 2013 FITs FY 2014 FITs proposed < 10 kw 38 Yen/kWh 37 Yen/kWh (residential) (37.3US /kwh) (36.3US /kwh) 10kW (non-residential) 36 Yen/kWh 32 Yen/kWh (35.3 US /kwh) (31.4 US /kwh) (with tax) (w/o tax) By courtesy of RTS Corporation, Source: METI 11

12 Contents 1. Energy Policy in Japan - Strategic Energy Plan/Market Integration 2. Snapshot of Japan s power system in Impact of Scenario Selection - 3. Challenges of RE Integration -Variation and Uncertainty 4. Flexibility Resources - Emerging needs and possibilities 5. Jump Smart Maui Project 12

13 Loss of ten nuclear units 40 year Life No N dev. 80GW PV, 28GW Wind 2. Impact of Scenario Selection Assumed Generation Scenarios including Nuclear No. Nuclear Scenario Shape in Plan The outlook before the 3.11 disaster, which is based on the long-term energy outlook in 2008 and the basic energy published Plan in The nuclear development of fourteen units is assumed by 2030 with 90% utilization factor. PV53 of GW, Wind 10 of GW 2a 2b 3a Continued development 60 year life Continued development, 40 year life No development, 40 year life Continued Nuclear development with some delay. Existing nuclear units are demolished after 60 years of operation PV of 53GW, Wind of 28GW Continued Nuclear development with some delay. Existing nuclear units are demolished after 40 year operation. PV of 53GW, Wind of 28GW No new nuclear development Existing nuclear units are to be demolished after 40 year operation. PV of 53GW, Wind of 28GW 4a Abolition in 5 years No new construction. Existing nuclear units are to be demolished in 5 years PV of 53GW, Wind of 28GW K. Ogimoto, K.Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa: Study of Best Mix of Long-Term Power Demand and Supply(3), JSER Annual Conference, 14-3 (2014) 13

14 2. Impact of Scenario Selection Assumed Nuclear Scenarios K. Ogimoto, K.Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa: Study of Best Mix of Long-Term Power Demand and Supply(3), JSER Annual Conference, 14-3 (2014) 14

15 Supply Capacity (GW) Generation (TWh) 1. Impact of Scenario Selection Assumed Gen. Cap. and Analyzed Production The figure of Supply Capacity indicates the assumed supply capacity scenario. When the nuclear generation decreases, thermal generation takes the major substitute, due to the limited contribution of PV, wind of around 15% share in scenario 2a through 4a. PV 53GW, Wind 10GW PV 53GW, Wind 28GW Share of PV and wind is around 15%. Share of Japan s Power Supply capacity in 2030 Nuclear Japan s Generation in

16 2. Impact of Scenario Selection Security: Self-sufficiency ratio of Generation RE and nuclear being indigenous and semi-indigenous, the selfsufficiency ratio of primary energy for power production decreases when the nuclear generation decreases from scenario 1 through 4a. The self-sufficiency of the total energy supply is far more smaller. Figure Self-sufficiency ration of power generation in 2030 K. Ogimoto, K.Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa: Study of Best Mix of Long-Term Power Demand and Supply(3), JSER Annual Conference, 14-3 (2014) 16

17 Generation Capacity Based on the resource study, wind share is larger in the remote systems of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Kyushu have large potential of wind, while the largest systems of Tokyo, Chubu, Kansai. Figure Generation capacity share in 2030 K. Ogimoto, K. Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa, S. Nonaka, H. Azuma: Resolution of Issues with Renewable Energy Penetration in a Long-term Power System Demand-Supply Planning, JSER Annual Conference, 31-3 (2014) 17

18 Variability and Flexibility In Tohoku System, even with a certain amount of batteries for LFC operation, during daytime with max. generation of PV and wind, wind generation is curtailed from 5262MW to 1655MW (4497 MW curtailment), and coal fired plants are in partial load operation. Figure Dispatch on a day with max. PV+Wind generation in Tohoku System K. Ogimoto, K. Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa, S. Nonaka, H. Azuma: Resolution of Issues with Renewable Energy Penetration in a Long-term Power System Demand-Supply Planning, JSER Annual Conference, 31-3 (2014) 18

19 Curtailment of Variable Generation With an evaluation of LFC reserve, more variable generation is curtailed so as to assure the stable operation of a power system. Figure 7 w/o LFC reserve evaluation Figure 8 w/ LFC reserve evaluation Generation production share in 2030 K. Ogimoto, K. Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa, S. Nonaka, H. Azuma: Resolution of Issues with Renewable Energy Penetration in a Long-term Power System Demand-Supply Planning, JSER Annual Conference, 31-3 (2014) 19

20 Generation fuel cost Under the detailed evaluation of LFC reserve margin, due to increase of partial operation of thermal plants and/or curtailment of valuable renewable generation, the fuel cost of thermal plants is substantially increased. GRID Coal LNG Oil Total hokkaido touhoku tokyo chubu hokuriku kansai chugoku shikoku kyusyu Table Fuel Cost Increase from w/o LFC reserve evaluation to w/ (100 million yen/ann. ) K. Ogimoto, K. Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa, S. Nonaka, H. Azuma: Resolution of Issues with Renewable Energy Penetration in a Long-term Power System Demand-Supply Planning, JSER Annual Conference, 31-3 (2014) 20

21 Fuel Cost reduction by conditions Variability and flexibility affects the fuel cost of thermal plants. Reduction of wind variability from 10% to 8%, Reduction of wind deployment capacity by 30%, increase of LFC capability of thermal power plants reduces the total fuel cost of a system. Figure Total fuel cost of Tohoku System in 2030 by variability and flexibility condition K. Ogimoto, K. Kataoka, T. Ikegami, Y. Udagawa, S. Nonaka, H. Azuma: Resolution of Issues with Renewable Energy Penetration in a Long-term Power System Demand-Supply Planning, JSER Annual Conference, 31-3 (2014) 21

22 2. Impact of Scenario Selection Importance of Long-Term Strategic Planning Demand and Generation option identification and analysis Transmission and distribution option identification and analysis including power system interconnection Demand activation option identification and analysis Best mix of demand and supply toward 2020, 2030 and further. Establishment of executable plan Optimization of interconnection 電力システム間連系の最適化 Optimization of demand and supply structure Optimization of transmission and distribution We need a time horizon to consider the future of energy and power. In 2030, with maximum energy saving and RE deployment, the RE share will be less than 25%. If the share of nuclear reduces, coal and gas generation will make up for the reduction. No dream, but an aggressive strategy and a concrete plan. 22

23 Contents 1. Energy Policy in Japan - Strategic Energy Plan/Market Integration 2. Snapshot of Japan s power system in Impact of Scenario Selection - 3. Challenges of RE Integration -Variation and Uncertainty 4. Flexibility Resources - Emerging needs and possibilities 5. Jump Smart Maui Project 23

24 3.Challenges of RE Integration Variation and Uncertainty may danger the stable operation of a power system. Image of equivalent system demand under PV penetration of 4,8,12,16,20% of the assumed total generation of 2030 April 1st Fine day Rainy day April 20th The variation of RE generation brings about the issue of demand-supply balance. The countermeasures for the issues are more sophisticated operation existing and new technologies in operation and new asset portfolio. 24

25 3.Challenges of RE Integration Reason of Reduced Balancing Capability (Flexibility) The ultimate impact of PV Penetration on a power system is the difficulty of supply and demand balance. Increased variation under reduced regulation capability and Increased variability are the two risk factors of the stable power system operation. (GW) Minimum balancing capability at minimum equivalent system load with maximum variation Pump Hydro Fossil Nuclear PV Load-PV Load Hourly system load, PV generation, and an equivalent load 25

26 3.Challenges of RE Integration Issues of Balancing Capability: Common issues in Low Carbon Energy Supply For sustainable energy/power system, we need to increase a share of variable renewable energy mainly by generation. The additional supply-demand balancing resources (flexibility) will be required in almost all the countries in the world. Nuclear IGCC, IGFC Gas combined generation PV, Wind Source of figures:coolearth Innovative Energy technology Program 26

27 Contents 1. Energy Policy in Japan - Strategic Energy Plan/Market Integration 2. Snapshot of Japan s future power system - Impact of Scenario Selection - 3. Challenges of RE Integration -Variation and Uncertainty 4. Flexibility Resources - Emerging needs and possibilities - 5. Jump Smart Maui Project 27

28 4. Flexibility Resources Traditional / Innovative Flexibility Resources From now to the future, we are going to deploy a series of flexibility resoures as we deploy more RE with variability and uncertainty. The maximum usage of the traditional generation flexibility: Increased ramp rate and reduction of minimum load and start-up time New operation of pumped storage and variable speed technology Enhanced operation of hydro power Aggressive usage of variable RE generation modification Active power control for output limit, ramp rate limit, primary and secondary and tertiary frequency control Reactive power control Activation of demand (auto-demand response) including houses and commercial buildings, and vehicles/batteries. Strengthening of distribution system, transmission lines and interconnections for holistic optimization of flexibility resource usage Improvement of system operation including the generation forecast of variable PV and wind and evolution of the system 28

29 2.Optimum Deployment and operation of RE TIME (H) UNIT PROD. COST (\/KWH) 3. Energy storage 4. Flexibility Resources Optimum Integration of Flexibility Resources 3.Distributed Energy Management and Demand Activation Rule and Market LOAD (MW) Physical Law Balancing EQUIVALENT LOAD DURATION CURVE OF IN PERIOD OF GRIDM Power and Information Network 4.Upgrade and Interconnection 5.Sophisticated Operation 1. Existing Generation 29

30 4. Flexibility Resources Innovative Technology: Activation of Demand Harmonization of centralized and distributed energy managements MECO Dispatch Center Houses in Kihei Area EV Chargers Over Maui Kazuhiko Ogimoto*, Yumiko Iwafune, Kataoka Kazuto,Takashi Ikegami, Yoshie Yagita: Cooperation Model of Centralized and Decentralized Energy Management for the Supply-Demand Adjustment in a Power System, IEEJ Power and Energy Society Conference, 8-16, (2011) 30

31 Additional Value of Distributed Energy Management beyond Energy 4. Flexibility Resources We need to enhance the values of the three axes of the distributed energy management systems including HEMS. We can integrate all the possibilities to develop new society including buildings, appliances, ICT, control system, utilization of external information. Axis of Energy System contribution 他住宅 事業者 電気予報 天気予報 日射予測 発電予測 外部情報 クラウド基盤データセンター スマートメータ 光熱費コンサル設備見守りサービス クラウドデータセンター 需要調整ピークカット 系統貢献軸 HEMS 蓄電池 エアコン 人感センサー 医療 健康教育 見守り防犯 防災 電気自動車 太陽光発電 太陽熱温水器 エコキュートAxis エネルギー 環境軸 of Energy use and 省エネルギー Environment 環境負荷削減 電力見える化 水 ガス見える化 温度湿度 空調制御など 窓の開閉 採光 住宅の基本性能向上 : 高気密 高断熱 通風 採光機能向上 QOL 軸 Axis of Quality of Life 安心 安全快適 便利光熱費削減楽しみ 31

32 4. Flexibility Resources Discussions in ACER of EU In September 2013, ACER(Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators) made Pre-consultation on Energy Regulation: A bridge to 2025 including institutional arrangements for flexibility resources. 32

33 4. Flexibility Resources Discussions of FERC of U.S. In September, 2013, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) held a technical conference on capacity market and made a public consultation. One of the focuses of the discussion is related to the market mechanism for flexibility resources. 33

34 Challenge in Maui of Hawaii 34

35 Background Challenge in Maui of Hawaii In order to establish a sustainable way of life for future generations, it will be necessary to integrate high levels of renewable energy into existing electric systems while maintaining safe and reliable power. US and Japan are collaborating to develop and demonstrate advanced technology for the control of electric vehicle (EV) charging to manage Distributed Energy Resources. The State of Hawai i and NEDO signed MOU in November NEDO will cover 37million US dollars. 35

36 Maui is ideal site for demonstration High cost of energy is driven by variable oil prices. Poor Energy security due to dependence on imported fuel. The Island is experiencing rapid growth of intermittent renewable generation (wind and solar) negatively impacting grid operations and reliability. Advanced smart grid technologies can enhance grid stability and balance demand; for example by management of electric water heaters, EV chargers and certain other home appliances without impacting homeowners. 36

37 What the project proposes? Project Objectives Renewables (Wind and Solar) friendly EV charging Reduce fossil fuel consumption and its dependency Mitigate investment cost for absorbing fluctuation by Renewables Charger G EV 37 37

38 Overall View of System Configuration Overall View of System Configuration 38 38

39 Challenge in Maui of Hawaii 39

40 Outline of JUMPSmartMaui 40

41 Major Stakeholders 41

42 Schedule and Initiatives 42

43 Geographical Locations of Devices in Maui 43

44 Overall View of System Configuration 44

45 Maximum Utilization of Renewable Energy Advanced load shift Helps shift energy demand by integrating forecasts of renewable power generation with the operating schedule of the project s batteries. Load Carve Forecast Power Generation Plan Renewable Power Generation Forecast Night Midnight Daytime Night Midnight Daytime Night Midnight Daytime The conventional load shift technology + Advanced RE forecasts added 45

46 Overall View of System Configuration 46

47 Maximum Utilization of Renewable Energy Advanced load shift Helps shift energy demand by integrating forecasts of renewable power generation with the operating schedule of the project s batteries. Supply Demand Supply Demand Balance Charging Discharging schedule Excess Start charging The Control Center Excess energy forecast graph The charging is scheduled to start when the balance would have excess supply 47

48 Maximum Utilization of Renewable Energy マウイ島に最適なスマートグリッドへ Emergency demand and supply control Keeps the electric power system stable by controlling and helping to restore loss of balance between power supply and demand. When power generation of wind farm and PV decreased Cut off low priority load such as water heaters temporary. Emergency discharge battery and Shift a charge time zone of EV at another time. The Control Center 48

49 Bulk Battery 49

50 Bulk Battery 50

51 Micro-DMS 51

52 Micro-DMS 52

53 Overall View of System Configuration 53

54 SmartPCS 54

55 Home Equipment 55

56 Home Equipment 56

57 Overall View of System Configuration 57

58 DC Fast Charger 58

59 Supports from Maui Residents as Volunteers 59

60 US-Japan Smart Grid Demonstration Test in Maui MECO control center is going to have innovative functionalities to manage distributed generations and demands including houses and EV charging in cooperation of generators, inhabitants of houses and drivers of cars. The project will shortly be able to send out an message from Maui about the innovative technologies and social participations to help the global discussions on a future energy system and society. 60

61 Thank you Ogimoto Laboratory, Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo In, related contents are available in English and Japanese.. The description of 1. Impact of Scenario Selection is available in this book which is just published July, 2012.