The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration in Solving Global Warming and Policy Needs

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1 The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration in Solving Global Warming and Policy Needs George Peridas, Ph.D. Scientist, NRDC Climate Center September 23 rd, 2009

2 Outline Background The world s energy system and CO 2 emissions How to reduce emissions? CCS as a tool Barriers & policy needs It s not just about CO 2

3 NRDC and CCS We first started studying CCS 12+ years ago Why? Not because we want to perpetuate the use of fossil fuels Not because efficiency i and renewables cannot provide a long term solution Not because we subscribe to the clean coal camp Because there is a huge gap between what is happening and what needs to happen to protect the climate Because CCS can stimulate faster policy action to the benefit of truly sustainable technologies Because we believe CCS can deliver emission reductions safely and effectively

4 Questions we ask about CCS Is it safe? Is it effective? Will it leak? Will it prolong coal use? Will it prolong damages from coal use? Will it crowd out energy efficiency and renewable energy? Will it accelerate or delay cuts in carbon emissions? Will projects be sited properly?

5 Outline Background The world s energy system and CO 2 emissions How to reduce emissions? CCS as a tool Barriers & policy needs It s not just about CO 2

6 The world s energy mix (2006) Primary energy Electricity generation Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, 2009

7 U.S. Electricity generation mix China Source: DOE-EIA, Electric Power Annual, January 2009 & China Analysis Brief, July 2009

8 World CO 2 emissions (2006) 28,003 million tonnes of CO 2 Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, 2009

9 Will emissions keep growing? Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU): world CO 2 emissions to rise 39% by 2030 from 2006 levels Largest growth from coal Source: DOE-EIA International Energy Outlook, May 2009

10 Where will the growth come from? Developing country growth overshadows that from developed countries But: a citizen from a developing country consumes a fraction of the energy we do Source: DOE-EIA International Energy Outlook, May 2007

11 An enormous emissions potential Trillion tonnes CO2 Atmosphere All Fossil Fuels Fossil Non-Coal Coal In Air Today World Fossil Fuel Resources

12 New coal plant emissions 26% greater than all historic coal CO 2 Lifetime emissions (billion tonnes CO2) % of remaining budget for 450ppm stabilization 0 Coal Use New Coal Plants next 25 years Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2006

13 Outline Background The world s energy system and CO 2 emissions How to reduce emissions? CCS as a tool Barriers & policy needs It s not just about CO 2

14 No silver bullets History Future ppm History Future ppm ppm ppm EJ/year 600 Today 380 ppm EJ/year 600 Today 380 ppm ppm ppm Preindustrial 280 ppm Oil Natural Gas Coal Biomass Energy Non-Biomass Renewable Energy ppm ppm Preindustrial 280 ppm Oil + CCS Natural Gas + CCS Coal + CCS Nuclear Energy End-use Energy Source: Jim Dooley, Joint Global Change Research Institute. Reproduced with thanks

15 We are only at the beginning We are at the very early stages of CCS deployment A mature system could entail: 100s of capture facilities 10,000s miles of CO 2 pipelines 100s of millions of tonnes of CO 2 being injected annually Source: Jim Dooley, Joint Global Change Research Institute. Reproduced with thanks

16 Outline Background The world s energy system and CO 2 emissions How to reduce emissions? CCS as a tool Barriers & policy needs It s not just about CO 2

17 Is a truly renewable energy system possible? Technologically: YES E.g. ASES analysis One small glitch: politics Little evidence of appetite for such a revolution Renewables PTC RES Two strategies: Eliminate coal use Reduce dependence on coal AND capture carbon from the coal that is used

18 The politics of coal

19 CCS is one of many tools Source: McKinsey

20 CCS can enable deep cuts 15-55% 55% of needed reductions by 2100 (IPCC) Back out oil with plug-in hybrids and CCS power generation Biofuels with a smaller carbon footprint Biomass with CCS for power with potentially net carbon emissions

21 Outline Background The world s energy system and CO 2 emissions How to reduce emissions? CCS as a tool Barriers & policy needs It s not just about CO 2

22 Barriers to CCS Technological Technology Policy Regulations Economics A lot of improvement is expected, but we know do enough to get started and use the technology safely and effectively today Policy & Economic Additional costs No value yet in reducing emissions CCS needs support to overcome initial iti cost hurdles

23 Outline Background The world s energy system and CO 2 emissions How to reduce emissions? CCS as a tool Barriers & policy needs It s not just about CO 2

24 It s not just about CO 2 Propaganda courtesy of the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity

25 Coal combustion waste /coalwaste/

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31 Conclusions We must reduce carbon emissions urgently Coal use alone will cause havoc with the climate Heavy global dependence on fossil fuels China (and India) make CCS even more critical No silver bullets Considerable abatement potential from CCS One of many tools to cut carbon Swift policy action is the most important step CCS can accelerate this step politically Federal climate policy is key for all low carbon technologies CCS does not make coal clean

32 Warming won t wait will we? Arctic summer ice could disappear completely within 5-6 years

33 Contact George Peridas, Ph.D. Natural Resources Defense Council 111 Sutter St. 20 th Floor San Francisco, CA