Modelling the fate of POPs on European scale using a gridded multi-media box model.

Transcription

1 Modellig the fate of POPs o Europea scale usig a gridded multi-media box model. Dr. Ady Sweetma, Professor Kevi C. Joes, Lacaster Eviromet Cetre, Lacaster Uiversity, Lacaster, LA 4YQ, UK

2 Iteratioal regulatio POPs UNEP Stockholm Covetio o POPs UNECE Log Rage Atmospheric Trasport Protocol Iteded to restrict or ba chemicals that are; persistet, bioaccumulative, subect to log-rage atmospheric trasport Strategic Approach to Iteratioal Chemicals Maagemet (SAICM) Adopted i 2006, SAICM is a iteratioal policy framework to foster the soud maagemet of chemicals Also REACH... PBTs, ad vbvp

3 What iformatio/tools are required? How ca we lik sources, measuremets ad modellig to esure effectiveess of regulatio? EMEP 50x50 grid Source ivetories EMEP coutries TNO coutries Scale-up emissio estimates usig surrogates such as populatio desity BaP emissios (g/m2) emep_50_520_wgs984_sm_bap BaP Distribute emissios usig regioal scale multi-media models Key areas. Reliable source ivetories 2. Ability to uderstad evirometal fate ad behaviour 3. Effective use of measuremets to quatify effectiveess Compare air/soil PECs with spatial datasets ot usually iterally cosistet

4 Developmet of modellig tools: Europea scale multi-media model (Europea Variat of BeTr North America model) D(,i) E() () Upper Air D(,3) D(,6) D(,4) D(,2) Dstrat D(,5) D(i,) Drx() D2(,i) E(2) D(2,3) (2) Lower Air D(2,6) D(2,4) D(2,) D(2,5) D2(i,) Drx(2) E(3) D(3,2) Drx(2) (3) Vegetatio D(3,6) Prevedouros, K., Joes, K.C., ad Sweetma, A.J. (2004) Parameterisig ad modellig of the fate processes of POPs i Europe: a gridded distributio model. Evirometal Pollutio, 28 (-2), E(6) (6) Soil Drx(6) D4_5(i,) D4(i,) Dadv(6) D(6,4) E(7) D(4,5) (4) Fresh D5(i,) D4(, i) Water Drx(4) (5) Coastal D4_5(,i) E(4) Water (7) Drx(5) Sedimet D5(,i) E(7) Dadv(7) Drx(7) D(6,3) D(6,2) D(4,2) D(7,4) D(4,7) D(5,2) Itercompartmetal Trasfer Advectio Emissios Degradatio

5 UPPER AIR Ivetory kg % Fugacity 4.9E-07 upa Cocetratio g/m E-09 umol/m LOWER AIR 000 Ivetory kg % Fugacity 4.58E-06 upa Cocetratio g/m3 3 VEGETATION 4.88E-08 umol/m Ivetory Distributio of B(a)P with NE UK grid cell (000 kg h - lower atmosphere) kg 6 SOIL % FRESH 0 Fugacity 0 WATER E-07 upa Ivetory Cocetratio kg Ivetory g/g % kg umol/m3 Fugacity %.54E-08 upa Fugacity Cocetratio 2.4E+2 upa g/g Cocetratio umol/m3.43e+7 g/l 0.05E E+4 umol/m3 5 COASTAL WATER SEDIMENT kg % Regioal Persistece Fugacity Total days Ivetory 4.47E-08 upa years 0 kg Cocetratio Reactio days Emissio 0 % g/l years Fugacity 9.77E-06 umol/m Advectio days Advectio 0 upa years LEGEND Cocetratio Total Iputs Fluxes i kg/year Degradatio 0 g/g kg/y 0 umol/m3 Total Ivetory Itermedia kg Trasfer 0 0 Ivetory 0 Key ivetory iformatio Air (lower) 2.7% Air (upper) 0.25% Soil 59% Vegetatio.5% Coastal water 36% Air-soil 6 kg h - Air-Veg. 53 kg h - Air-coastal water 265 kg h -

6 Simple what-if scearios: 0000 kg emitted i regio 24 Air cocetratio as percetage of cocetratio i regio 24 PCB 28 PCB 80 Leged Alpha-HCH modelout_pcb28_fracee4kgyr airpercet BaP Leged

7 TNO 2000 per coutry Scalig up emissios to provide regioal scale PECs Emissio/source ivetories are usually provided o a coutry by coutry basis EMEP 2004 per coutry Leged emep_50_520_wgs984_sm_bap_ps BaP emissios (g/km 2 /yr) BaP EMEP x50 grid

8 Steady state gridded output Leged PEC i air (pg m-3) modeloutput_tnogridded_bap_eurzerobackgroud airpgm TNO EMEP

9 UK air quality stadard Leged e_air4_gm3 PEC i air (g m -3 ) <VALUE> TNO EMEP EU limit

10 Case study: Peta-BDE life cycle Br productio Bromiated Flame retardat idustry Europea market PBDEs Peta-BDEs IMPORTS + BDEs 47, 99, usage Historical BDE cosumptio patters Vapour pressure based EF Log Koa based EF Other approaches Emissio estimates Gridded emissios

11 Cocetratio (g/g lipid) Emissios (kg) EV BeTr example of temporal ad spatially variable emissios - PeBDE Norway blood Swedish milk Germay blood emissios Emissio scearios populatio desity, regioal hotspots, PCB surrogate

12 Predicted time treds i three model regios. (a) BDE-47 i air (b) BDE-47 i soil

13 Air cocetratio (pg/m3) Compariso of predicted ad measured air cocetratios for BDE Measured Max Mi Average Regio

14 [grass, pg/g] [air, pg/m3] Time tred for measured BDE-47 cocetratios i archived pasture versus the modelled tred of Europea atmospheric emissios year rollig average model Year

15 Spatial Distributio of BDE-47 i ambiet air Rage 08 to 07 g per sample Samplig rate 3 m 3 per day (42 days) = 30 m 3 = 6 to 820 pg m-3

16 ALARM Climate Scearios BAMBU (Busiess As Might Be Usual) Sceario: cotiue ecoomic growth biggest warmig, biggest rai differece GRAS (Growth Applied Strategy) Sceario: some cotrols SEDG (Sustaiable Europea Developmet Goal) Sceario: Shock scearios, GRASCUT - gulf stream cut off Predicted ladcover chages

17 Predicted climate chages GRAS sceario Temp Max Temp Max

18 Lookig to the future: climate chage ad pollutat behaviour GRAS GRAS GRAS CUT GRAS (CUT) PCB 53 (ug g-) Soil

19 Modellig POPs future challeges Use of scietific evidece i public policy makig cotais varyig levels ucertaity that must be assessed, commuicated ad maaged. Weighig of scietific evidece balaced agaist the beeficial use. Importat that emissio databases, evirometal fate ad behaviour models ad measuremet studies are developed i couctio with each other. Models ca used to clearly demostrate ucertaity ad idetify key research areas.