A Study on Potential and Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources in Turkey

Transcription

1 6 th International Advanced Technologies Symposium (IATS 11), May 2011, Elazığ, Turkey A Study on Potential and Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources in Turkey A. Sağbaş 1, T. Karamanlıoğlu 2 1,2 University of Mersin, Mersin/Turkey, asagbas@hotmail.com, tunca_nt@msn.com Abstract In the world, particularly in the developing countries renewable sources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable development. Renewable sources production in Turkey is the second biggest production source after total coal production. Turkey s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable sources. In this study, potential and development of renewable systems in Turkey were studied. The potential and current usage of renewable sources were reviewed. Keywords Renewable, Sustainable development, Energy potential, Energy utilization, Turkey E I. INTRODUCTION nergy is essential to economic and social development and improved quality of life in all countries. Much of the world s is currently produced and consumed in ways that could not be sustained if technology were to remain constant and if overall quantities were to increase substantially [1]. Energy is available in two different alternatives, i. e., nonrenewable, e. g., coal, fuel oil, and natural gas, and renewable, e. g., solar, wind, hydro, and wave sources. Since the industrial revolution in the nineteenth century, firstly coal and then fuel oil have been used as primary sources for the needs of modern communities. It is known that fossil fuels have limited potential and at the current rate of exploitation, are expected to be depleted within the next few centuries worldwide. This is one of the reasons why clean, sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative resources are currently sought [2]. Environmental impact of renewable technologies is far less than that of fossil fuel fired power plants [3]. Worldwide demand has been growing steadily during the past five decades, and most experts believe that this trend will continue to rise. The vast majority of the world s primary demand is presently being met by fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas and coal. According to British Petrol s Statistical Review of World Energy 2009, the world s primary consumption in 2007 was 11,104 million tons of oil equivalents (Mtoe), of which 88% was provided by fossil fuels [4]. World primary demand has risen nearly 40% since 1990, and it is expected to rise more than by 50% between now and 2030 [5]. Table 1 shows a comparison of fuel mix of total consumption between world and Turkey [6]. At the present time primary sources are dominated by nonrenewable fossil fuels, with nearly 90% of Turkey s demand supplied from crude oil, natural gas, and coal. As can be seen from Table 1, current mix is not likely to support development of sustainable in Turkey. Table 1: Comparison of fuel mix of total consumption between world and Turkey (%) [6] Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables World (2007) Turkey (2008) The largest share of the country s total consumption comes from natural gas (31.8%), followed by oil (29.9%) and coal (27.3%). Renewable sources (with the exception of hydro) are currently small fractions of Turkey s supply. In order to ensure a sustainable future in Turkey, various renewable options have been explored in numerous studies [7,8]. This paper also discusses the present situation, future projections and developments of renewable and policy objectives in Turkey. II. PRESENT AND FUTURE USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Turkey is currently heavily dependent on imports to meet its demand because of limited domestic resources. Turkey s main domestic resources are coal (particularly lignite), hydro and biomass and it has no large oil and natural gas reserves. Turkey s potential reserves are given in Table 2. Table 2: Turkey s potential reserves (million tons) [9] Energy type Total Recoverable Proven Annual production Methane from gas hydrates Lignite Hard coal Bituminous schist Apatite Oil Natural gas Thorium Uranium

2 A. Sağbaş, T. Karamanlıoğlu Currently, 97% of the country s natural gas demand, 93% of oil demand and 20% of coal demand is met by imports [10]. Natural gas consumption has been growing fast, causing a significant change in the Turkish market. While the share of oil in the country s mix has decreased slightly during the past three decades, the share of natural gas has rapidly increased. From the growth rate of natural gas consumption, since the year 1990, the country s natural gas consumption has an annual growth rate of 15% and the average annual growth is about 1.8 billion cubic meters. Current supply in Turkey is primarily fossil-based fuels and these resources are shortening day by day, large power plants will need to be replaced over the next years [6]. Imported fossil fuels currently play an important role in the country s electricity generation [11]. Figure 1 shows Turkey s electricity generation mix in 2008 and economically feasible renewable potential. Oil 10.3 Import coal 12.5 Natural gaz 96 Wind 0.8 Hydro 33.1 Domestic coal 45 Other renewables 0.5 (A) Fig. 1. (A) Turkey s electricity generation mix in 2008 and (B) Turkey s economically feasible renewable potential [10] As can be seen in Figure 1(A), approximately 60% of electricity generation is supplied by imported fossil fuels. Economically feasible renewable potential in Turkey is more than enough for total replacement of fossil fuels currently imported for the electricity generation. According to Figure 1(B), the technical biomass potential with an amount of TWh/year is very high in terms of electricity production, followed by the hydro potential with an estimated value of 124 TWh/year and the solar technical potential with TWh/year. Despite limitations in domestic resource availabilities, primary and secondary demand in Turkey is growing very rapidly, parallel with its industrialization efforts. Projections to 2020 indicate that its demand will increase significantly. The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) has planned or a very large increase in the country s consumption over the next decade Turkey s primary consumption in the long term is projected to grow at an average rate of almost 5.9% per year, from Mtoe in 2008 to Mtoe in 2020 [6]. Turkey has considerably high level of renewable resources that can be a part of the total network in the country [12]. In Turkey, the mix shows a relatively small contribution from renewable sources. However, Turkey is developing policies aimed at a more diversified mix increasing hydro, wind and geothermal electricity, solar and geothermal for heat and biofuels. Turkey has the biggest potential in Europe in terms of hydro wind and geothermal and a very good potential in terms of (B) Geothermal 22.4 Wind 50 Solar Hydro 124 Biomass biomass and solar [13-15]. Despite an increase in the interest for renewable in the recent years, its share in the mix does not increase as demand has been growing steadily. The share of renewable in the mix has decreased from 13% in 2000 to 9.5% in 2007 [16]. Table 3 shows the renewable contribution in total demand during the period According to MENR s 2020 projections, renewable sources will account for less than 9% of primary in 2020 [6]. Table 3: Renewable resources in Turkey during the period (thousand tons of oil equivalents) [6] Total 75,485 79,402 81,959 88,340 94, ,510 demand Total 24,548 23,873 24,212 23,625 26,540 27,279 production Supply by 10,077 10,036 10,783 10,131 10, RE Biomass and wastes Wood wood waste Biogas MSW Bioruels Wind Solar Hydro Geothermal Share % 13,35 12,64 13,15 11,87 11,14 9,45 Biomass and 5,00 7,25 6,77 6,25 5,45 4,95 wastes% Wood wood 7,99 7,27 6,76 6,24 5,42 4,93 waste% Biogas% 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 MSW% Biofuels% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,01 Wind 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,03 Solar 0,43 0,44 0,45 0,45 0,42 0,41 Hydro 3,54 3,83 4,83 3,99 4,02 3,04 Geothermal 1,09 1,08 1,09 1,19 1,23 1,03 The various kinds of resources like hydro, solar, wind, biomass and geothermal resources Turkey s economically feasible renewable potential exceed 495 Terawatt hours per year (TWh/year) in total with the potential TWh/year of biomass, 125 TWh/year of hydropower, TWh/year of solar, 50 TWh/year of wind, and 22.4 TWh/year of geothermal [17]. III. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOURCES Sustainable development depends on a widespread use of clean and renewable. Almost 80% of the renewable supply was from biomass, and in developing countries it is mostly converted by traditional open combustion which is very inefficient. The total share of all renewables for electricity production in 2003 was about 17.6%, a vast majority (90.3%) of it being from hydroelectric power as shown in Figure 2 [18]. 37

3 A Study on Potential and Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources in Turkey Table 4: Electric power capacity development in Turkey [27] Fig. 2. Resource shares in world renewable supply in 2003 [18] The dramatic increase in the price of oil, the finite nature of fossil sources, increasing concerns regarding environmental impact, especially related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and health and safety considerations are forcing the search for new alternative sources [19]. Reducing use of fossil fuels would considerably reduce the amount of CO2 produced, as well as reducing the levels of the pollutants which cause acid rain. This can be achieved by either using less altogether, or using alternative sources [20]. The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, agreed to in December 1997, marks an important turning point in efforts to promote the use of renewable worldwide and the developed countries should decrease the net emission of CO2 [21]. In Turkey, electricity is produced by thermal power plants, consuming coal, lignite, natural gas, fuel oil and geothermal, and hydro power plants [23]. Figures 3 and 4 show the installed capacity of power and distribution of installed power capacity in Turkey respectively. Fig. 3. Trends in electricity generation from renewable energies [24] thermal 66,7% hydrolic 33,25% wind 0,05% Fig. 4. Distribution of installed power capacity of Turkey [25] The MENR is planning for a very large increase in electric generating capacity over the next twenty years, as shown in Table 4 [26, 27]. Fuel type Installed Generati MWe GWh MWe GWh capacity (MWe) on (GWh) Coal Natural gas Fuel oil Renew Nuclear Total A. Biomass Energy Sources Biomass is the major source of in rural Turkey. The amount of annual biomass potential of Turkey is approximately 32 Mtoe. The total recoverable bio potential is estimated to be about 17 Mtoe [28]. Among OECD countries, Turkey takes the fourth place from the top in the estimated total potential from crop residues with 9.5 Mtoe [29]. Biogas production potential in Turkey has been estimated at Mtoe but only two small units (in total 5 MW) are in operation and one new facility (1 MW) has been licensed [30,31]. Around 85% of the total biogas potential is from dung gas, and the remainder is from landfill gas. The dung gas potential is obtained from 50% sheep, 43% cattle and 7% poultry [32,33]. All of the production is used domestically as fuel. The producers use waste vegetable oil as raw material for bio-diesel production [34]. B. Geothermal Energy Sources Turkey has significant potential for geothermal power production, possessing one eighth of the world s total geothermal potential [35,36]. The country has a place among the world s first seven countries with respect to abundance of its geothermal resources [37]. The overall geothermal potential in Turkey is about 38,000MW [38]. Turkey is ranked as fifth biggest geothermal user for heating and hot spring purposes after China, Japan, USA and Island [39,40]. Turkey has increased their installed capacity over the past 10 years from 140 MWt to 1177 MWt, which now supplies heat equivalent to the needs of 70,000 homes [23]. The share of geothermal in Turkey s mix was only 1% in Its use is expected to reach 6.3 Mtoe by 2020, accounting for approximately 3% of the national mix [41-43]. Parallel to the developments of the geothermal utilization in Turkey, it is planned that by the years 2010 and 2020, the total installed capacity will increase to 3500MWt and 8300MWt for space heating, and to 500 and 1000MWe for electricity production, respectively [44,45]. Presently, nine geothermal fields in Turkey have a high enthalpy and have the necessary conditions for generating electricity in a binary cycle or flash plants [46]. Figure 5 illustrates nine geothermal fields of Turkey are suitable for generating electricity together with their possible utilization opportunities [47]. 38

4 A. Sağbaş, T. Karamanlıoğlu Fig. 5. General tectonic and volcanic features and important geothermal fields of Turkey [47] C. Solar Energy Sources Solar is a very large and inexhaustible source of. Turkey has also considerable solar potential [48]. Currently, Turkey does not have an organized commercial and domestic photovoltaic PV program [49,50]. On the other hand, there is good potential for PV applications in the local market since the country is enormously suitable due to high rates of solar radiation and available land for PV applications [40]. The PV generation application is insignificant and currently, the total PV generation capacity in Turkey is 3 MWp [51]. With an installed solar thermal capacity of 7.1 GWt, Turkey is currently the third largest producer of solar thermal power worldwide, after China (84 GWt) and the EU (15.5 GWt) [52]. The annual average total insolation duration is 2640 h (7.2 h/day), while the average annual solar radiation is 1311 kwh/m²/year (3.6 kw h/m²/day) in Turkey [53]. Solar collectors mounted in 2007 were 18 million square meters [54], and total production related to this amount was 420 Ttoe [6]. Also, the situation, consumption, and demand projections of solar in Turkey are introduced. Figure 6 shows the annual solar potential of Turkey. The total solar potential of Turkey is calculated as 88 Mtoe/year, of which 40% can be used economically [55]. Fig. 6. Atlas and average annual solar radiation values in Turkey [55] Having a high potential for solar due to its geographical position, Turkey's average annual total sunshine duration is calculated as hours (daily total is 7,2 hours), and average total radiation pressure as kwh/m²-year (daily total is 3,6 kwh/m²) [55]. D. Wind Energy Sources KWh/m²-yr Utilization of wind as an source has been growing rapidly in the whole world due to consumption of the limited fossil fuels, environmental pollution and global warming. It has many advantages like cleanliness, low cost, and abundance in everywhere on the world. Especially in the last two decades, the wind power potential has been studied in many countries worldwide. Among the types of renewable, wind has been the most popular and most approachable power source in recent years. The use of wind power as a renewable source is one of the means of achieving the GHG emission targets set in Kyoto agreement [56]. According to a study [57], Turkey has one of the richest wind potentials among European countries, can even meet all of the electricity needs from wind. Turkey s total theoretically available potential for wind power is estimated to be around 88,000 MW. Turkey s total economically feasible potential for wind power is estimated at some 10,000 MW [58,59]. As for Turkey s situation related to wind utilization, it can be seen that Turkey is rather unsuccessful in using its potentials and has only 12 wind power plants with installed capacity [60]. Turkey s installed wind capacity tripled during 2007 from 50MW to almost 150MW and again in 2008 to 433MW [61]. The worldwide cumulative wind installed capacity reached 122 GW in 2008, up from 59 GW in 2005 and 7.6 GW in 1997 [62-65]. Compared to seven regions of the country, wind power densities are seemed to be higher at Marmara, Aegean and South-East Anatolia. Wind speeds are therefore higher at these three regions [55]. Along with the mean values of the regions, some focal wind potentials within these regions are listed in Table 5. Table 5: Wind potential of Turkey over various regions [55] Region Annual avarage wind speed(m/s) Annual avarage wind densty(w/m²) Marmara 3,29 51,91 Aegean 2,65 23,47 Mediterranean 2,45 21,36 Middle 2,46 20,14 Black sea 2,38 21,31 Eastern 2,12 13,19 South eastern 2,69 29,33 Avarage 2,58 25,82 E. Hydro Energy Sources Hydropower is by far the most important form of renewable electricity produced in Turkey. The political desire to exploit more of the estimated 433 TWh of theoretical hydropower potential has been strengthened by volatile gas prices and intermittent service from its two main suppliers, Russia and Iran [66,67]. Almost half of the gross potential is technically exploitable, and 28% is economically exploitable [49,68]. Turkey has 172 hydroelectric power plants in operation with total installed capacity of 13,830MW generating an average of 33.1 TWh/year, which is 39% of the economically feasible hydro potential [10,69,70]. In 2008, the share of hydroelectric was about 16.7% of total electricity production of the country. It represented approximately 96% of electricity production from renewable sources in During the period , the hydroelectric installed capacity increased from 11,175 MW to 13,830MW [69]. According to the governmental plan, the hydroelectric installed capacity will reach 35,000 MW in 2020, accounting for 36.5% of the total installed capacity. The gross theoretical small hydropower potential of Turkey is 50 TWh/year. The technically and 39

5 A Study on Potential and Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources in Turkey economically feasible potential is 30 and 20 TWh/year, respectively. IV. GENERAL AVAILABILITY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Electricity demand in Turkey is growing rapidly, with the rate of increase at 8% on average for many years [70]. Turkey s electricity demand in 2008 was about 198 TWh and is expected to increase to 242 TWh in 2010 and TWh in 2020 [10,71]. This requires installed capacity to increase from about 42,000MW in 2008 to 65,000 MW by 2010 and 96,000 MW by 2020 [69,71]. This means that for the next 12 years, additional power generation plants must be established for an increased capacity of 54,000MW. Currently, electricity is mainly produced using thermal power plants (which consume coal, lignite, natural gas and fuel oil), wind, geothermal and hydropower plants in Turkey. Turkey s electricity production was about TWh in 2008, compared to 30.6 TWh in In 2008, their shares decreased to 29%, 5.2% and 16.7% due to increasing use of natural gas for electric power generation [10]. Today, gas-fired power stations produce nearly half of the electricity in Turkey (48.4% in 2008). The consumption of natural gas for power generation represents 55% of total gas consumption in Renewable energies could provide approximately half of the global demand by 2040, according to European Renewable Energy Council [72]. PV systems and wind will be able to play an important role in the scenarios of the future [73]. In the period , there was a 76% increase in renewable electricity generation capacity worldwide (excluding large hydro) from 160 GW to 282 GW [52,74]. At the end of 2008, the top countries in terms of installed capacity were China (76 GW), the United States (40 GW), Germany (34 GW) [52]. The countries in terms of electricity production from renewable sources were China (471 TWh), the United States (387 TWh), Norway (137 TWh), Germany (97 TWh) [61]. Table 6 provides a comparison of Turkey with selected countries in terms of their renewable electricity generation. Compared with renewable electricity generation of selected countries, Turkey takes place for beyond the list at the last level [10,62]. Table 6: A comparison of Turkey with selected countries in terms of their renewable electircity generation [ 62] Country TEG REG SRE REG SRE Turkey 198,2 34,4 17,4 1,3 0,66 China 3246,7 471,2 14,5 9,3 0,29 USA 4376,5 386,7 8,8 108,9 2,49 Norway 138,3 136,6 98,8 1,3 0,04 Germany 641,1 96,6 15,1 69,1 10,78 In 2013, cumulative wind installed capacity in the world will have reached 343 GW, of which 145 GW will be in the EU [75]. Given that domestic coal makes up 13.5% of Turkey s primary consumption, renewable makes up only 11%, especially hydro and biomass. 74% of the country s consumption derives from imported fossil fuels. Some predict that Turkey will need up to US$128 billion in investments to fuel this growth [76]. Turkey s population of more than 70 million is growing at an annual rate of 1.04% and expected to grow to 83.4 million in 2022 [77,78]. Distribution of the installed power capacity of Turkey according to the sources is given in Figure 7 [79]. installed capacity (%) Geothermal + Wind Thermal Fig.7. Shares of installed capacity of Turkey s electric power plants [79] V. CONCLUSIONS Renewable should be taken as a key way to reduce Turkey s heavy dependence on imported and must be put in the first position. This will not only reduce its dependence on imports of fuel to produce, but will also ensure a continued local source of. 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