Renewable Energy in The Netherlands February 2015

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy in The Netherlands February 215

2 Dr. Martien Visser Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen Partner of the Energy Academy Europe This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided. Mar-15 Page 2

3 February 215 In a Nutshell Electricity production by Solar Energy was 65% higher than in February 214 Electricity production by wind energy was 4% lower than in February 214 A capacity of 7 MW of wind and 3 MW of solar PV was added in February Power imports were lower, while gas exports increased compared to last year Due to low availability of wind and reduced utilization of biomass, the percentage of renewable energy was (only) 3.3% Gas demand was limited due to high temperatures, although higher than last year because of increased utilization of gas in power generation. In February 215, CO2 emissions were 5% higher compared to last year Mar-15 Page 3

4 Content February data Monthly profiles Monthly data Hourly data Miscellaneous Mar-15 Page 4

5 SELECTED ENERGY DATA FROM JANUARY Mar-15 Page 5

6 Final Energy Demand February 215 TWh February Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, etc.., own analyses *estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power Energy is used for many different purposes. In February, the most important applications were heating/gas (32 TWh) and transport (25.1TWh). Final energy demand, including sources that do not contribute to national CO2 targets, was 8 TWh. Renewables are given by comparison. Mar-15 Page 6

7 Final Energy Demand February 215 TWh February 215 versus February Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses *estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power In February 215, gas consumption was higher than last year, while energy used for bunkering and feedstock is estimated to be lower. Due to low wind and biomass, renewable energy production was lower than in 214. Mar-15 Page 7

8 CO2 Emissions February 215 Mton CO2 February Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, RIVM, CE-Delft, own analyses *do not contribute to the national CO2 target ** excl. gas & coal to power The national CO2 emission in February 215, excluding power imports, feedstock and international shipping & aviation, has been estimated at 14,8 Mton. This was 5% higher than in February 214.Main reason is more national power production, due to more coal and less imports. Mar-15 Page 8

9 Power Generation Capacity February 215 MW 2 February Gas Coal Wind Biomass* Solar Nuclear Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, Windstats, own analyses Wind power increased by 7 MW last month. The estimated increase in solar energy was 3 MW. No further changes. Mar-15 Page 9

10 Power Supplies February 215 TWh February NatGas Coal Wind solar-pv Biomass Nuclear Net imports Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, own analyses In February 215, power consumption in 214 was 9.7 TWh, 4% higher than in February 214. Net imports decreased by 8%. Compared to previous year. Coal-fired and Gas-fired generation increased significantly. In February, the average contribution from renewables to the power supplies was only 8%. Mar-15 Page 1

11 SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES (using daily data) Mar-15 Page 11

12 Gas and Power Demand February 215 GWh February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Power Gas* Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, etc.. own analyses *excluding gas-to-power Daily power demand shows a typical week-weekend pattern. Daily gas demand (excluding the gas demand for power) is mainly used for the heating market and affected by ambient temperature. Mar-15 Page 12

13 Conventional Power Production February 215 GWh February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Coal Gas Nuclear Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Daily conventional power generation peaked on February 3 rd. This was a week with relative low wind production and low net power imports. Mar-15 Page 13

14 Wind and Solar Power Production February 215 GWh February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Wind Solar-PV Sources: TenneT, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses February was a month with very low wind production. Although wind capacity increased by almost 1% compared to 214, electricity generation in 215 was 4% less. Solar PV is still low in February, but increased by 6% compared to GWh is sufficient to provide electricity for a year to 3 households Mar-15 Page 14

15 Contribution of Renewable Energy February 215 February % 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Ren% Power Ren% Prim. Sources: CBS, GTS, TenneT, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analyses Renewable energy peaked in the second half of February to about 4%. The contribution of renewables was lower than in 214 due to lower biomass and lower wind. The data provided have been calculated using the agreed EU method. Mar-15 Page 15

16 SELECTED MONTHLY ENERGY DATA Mar-15 Page 16

17 Gas Demand 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In February 215 gas demand (excluding gas demand for power production) was slightly higher than in February 214. Mar-15 Page 17

18 Gas Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, own analyses In February 215, Dutch gas production was 1% lower than in February TWh of gas is sufficient to supply heat all houses in Amsterdam for two years Mar-15 Page 18

19 Power Demand 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: TenneT, CBS, own analyses In February 215, power demand was 4% higher than in February 214 Mar-15 Page 19

20 Wind Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses In February 215, wind power generation was much lower than in February 214, due to much lower wind availability Mar-15 Page 2

21 Solar PV Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: PolderPV.nl, CertiQ, Klimaatmonitor, KNMI, own analyses In February 215, Solar PV was low, but grew spectacular with 65% compared to February 214, due to a significant increase of Solar PV capacity and more sunny weather. Mar-15 Page 21

22 Coal-to-Power 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses Estimated power production by coal-fired power stations has increased by 23% compared to previous year. The coal demand for power generation is difficult to estimate because the status of the new coal-fired power stations is not publicly known. Mar-15 Page 22

23 Gas to Power 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In February, estimated power production by gas-fired power stations and cogeneration has increased significantly compared to previous year. Mar-15 Page 23

24 Renewable Energy All Sources 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In February 215, total renewable energy was less than in February 214, due to lower contributions from biomass and wind. Mar-15 Page 24

25 Renewable Energy Percentage 215 (and 214) 6% 215 (214) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In February 215, the estimated national percentage of renewable energy as fraction of total energy demand (EU definition) has been estimated at just 3.3%. Mar-15 Page 25

26 CO2 Emissions 215 (and 214) Mton (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, CE-Delft, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In February 215, CO2 emissions are 5% higher than in February 214. The main reason is that fossil power generation has been higher due to higher consumption, less imports and less renewable generation. Mar-15 Page 26

27 SELECTED HOURLY ENERGY DATA Mar-15 Page 27

28 Gas Supply February 215 MWh Gas Production February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Gas import LNG Terminals Production Storages Sources: GTS, own analyses In February 215, hourly gas production peaked at 19. MW (19 GW). Gas production decreased after February 1 th, when Dutch Minister Kamp ordered a reduction of gas production from the large Groningen Gas Field Mar-15 Page 28

29 Gas Demand Including Gas-to-Power January 215 MWh Gas Demand February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Industry LDC points Sources: GTS, own analyses On February 5 th, gas demand in The Netherlands peaked to almost 1. MW (1 GW). The peak in gas demand has been caused by a combination of relatively low temperatures and high demand of gas for power generation. Mar-15 Page 29

30 Gas Imports & Exports February 215 MWh Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Gas export February 215 Gas import Sources: GTS, own analyses In February 215, gas exports were 6 TWh, about 2% higher than previous year, Gas import added up to 18 TWh, similar to last year. Gas exports peaked in the beginning of February to 115. MW. Mar-15 Page 3

31 Power Imports & Exports February 215 MWh February Feb -2 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Power import Power export Sources: TenneT, own analyses In February 215, power imports 1.8TWh, almost equal to the exports of 1.5 TWh. Mar-15 Page 31

32 Wind Power February 215 MWh Wind Power February 215 Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, etc., own analyses 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb February 215 was characterized by low wind availability. The average utilization rate of wind capacity was less than 25%, which is low for a month in winter. Mar-15 Page 32

33 Solar PV Power February 215 MWh Solar Power February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Sources: PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses In February Solar-PV peaked to 36 MW, compared to 25 MW in January. This month, electricity by Solar Power was 65% higher than previous year. Mar-15 Page 33

34 The following set of slides presents for each month in 215 the hourly contributions of various energy sources to total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar-15 Page 34

35 Power Generation January 215 MW January Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are added In the week of 2-24 January, power generation peaked, due to the net exports that occurred. The majority of the additional power generation has been generated by gasfired installations. Mar-15 Page 35

36 Power Generation February 215 MW February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are added Like in January, low wind availability coincided with net exports of power. Mar-15 Page 36

37 The following set of slides presents for each week in 215 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-pv to the total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar-15 Page 37

38 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 1-Jan 11-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ,, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analyses Mar-15 Page 38

39 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analyses Mar-15 Page 39

40 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 2-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar-15 Page 4

41 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar-15 Page 41

42 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, KNMI, PolderPV.nl, etc., own analyses Mar-15 Page 42

43 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 1-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, KNMI, PolderPV.nl, etc., own analyses Mar-15 Page 43

44 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 2-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar-15 Page 44

45 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 1-Mar Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar-15 Page 45

46 MISCELLANEOUS Mar-15 Page 46

47 Effective Temperature February 215 o C February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Sources: KNMI, own analyses The effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) in February 215. Mar-15 Page 47

48 Fuel Specific CO2 Emissions g/kwh Sources: CE-Delft, own analyses Fuels Power Generation Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation. Mar-15 Page 48

49 Epilogue This presentation is based on numerous sources which present data on energy demand and supply in The Netherlands. These data, however, do not cover the entire energy system. Some approximations and scaling factors were thus needed. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of Applied Science in Groningen and various energy experts in The Netherlands which gave suggestions for improvements of the methods used. Currently, the aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS). It is believed by the author that the detailed results in this presentation give a fair presentation of the complex reality of the Dutch energy system. Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided with the objective to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable. Mar-15 Page 49